January 13, 2014Jan 13, 2014 · January 13, 2014 3 Financial Models Modifications to January 6 Models to reflect Task Force Input Heathcare Trend: 7% civilian/8% Uniform for 20 years

January 13, 2014Mary Beth Redding

www.bartel-associates.com

City of San AntonioRetirement and Healthcare

Benefits Task Force

2January 13, 2014

Financial Models Purpose: To show the Task Force the expected

general trend of General Fund revenue and expenses 3 Scenarios, with projection based on: 15 year historical growth

20 year historical growth

15 year historical growth with recession 2021-2025

3January 13, 2014

Financial Models Modifications to January 6 Models to reflect Task

Force Input Heathcare Trend: 7% civilian/8% Uniform for 20 years Pre-Paid Retiree Healthcare discount rate remains 8% Compound Annual Growth Rates add one year to each

calculation period Other Projections begin from 2014 budget Revenue reserve increases to 15% beginning in 2016

Results of modified scenarios show no significant changes from models presented last week

4January 13, 2014

Financial Models Key Observations Public Safety expenses have grown faster than revenue

in the past 20 years

Because expenses, especially public safety, grow faster than revenue, the projection model shows: Public safety costs in time exceed total projected revenue

Total projected expenses exceed projected revenues in all future years

A deficit exists beginning in 2015

5January 13, 2014

Projection Model – 15 yr Summary

Public safety costs = 100% of Revenue in 2040

Public Safety Program Costs including all Public Safety Civilian PositionsUniform Salaries

Uniform Leave Buyback, Clothing Allowance, Tuition Reimbursement, Retiree Payouts, Overtime, and non-pensionable pays

Uniform Pension, Pre-Funded Healthcare & Active Healthcare

General Fund Revenue, Net of Reserve from FY 2016

Non-Public Safety General Fund Cost

6January 13, 2014

Projection Model – 20 yr Summary







7January 13, 2014

Projection Model – Recession Summary







8January 13, 2014

Financial Models How Can The Projections Be Changed?These are not suggestions, just observations Short-Term Actions: Reduce expenses or the expense growth rate Salaries Benefits, especially Active Healthcare Services provided

Increase Revenues Mid-Term to Long Term Considerations: Slower effect: Pension or other changes for future hires Change Benefits (Pension and Pre-Funded Healthcare) for Active

Employees Change Benefits (Pension and Pre-Funded Healthcare) for Future

Hires

9January 13, 2014

Summary 3 Scenarios developed as requested by Task

Force: 15 year, 20 year, and Recession

A deficit exists beginning in 2015

Public Safety Expenditures have grown faster than revenue over the past 20 years and are projected to continue to grow faster than revenue

In any of the three scenarios Public Safety could take up to 100% of General Fund Revenue based on historical trends

10January 13, 2014

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CIVILIAN COMPENSATION & BENEFITS

($ in Millions)

FY 2003

FY2004

FY 2005

FY 2006

FY 2007

FY 2008

FY 2009

FY 2010

FY 2011

FY 2012

FY 2013

%Change

Compensation $198 $199 $206 $221 $231 $245 $254 $264 $265 $269 $283 43.0%

TMRS 23 23 25 27 28 31 34 32 34 28 30 34.1%

Social Security 12 12 13 14 14 15 16 16 16 17 18 43.0%

Active Healthcare* 31 35 29 34 36 30 33 40 37 42 43 39.6%

Retiree Healthcare* 8 8 9 11 10 10 10 8 8 7 6 -24.9

• Since 2003, Civilian compensation and benefit costs have increased 40.0%

*Healthcare costs are net premiums

8

UNIFORM COMPENSATION & BENEFITS

($ in Millions)

FY 2003

FY2004

FY 2005

FY 2006

FY 2007

FY 2008

FY 2009

FY 2010

FY 2011

FY 2012

FY 2013

%Change

Compensation $212 $228 $244 $262 $277 $287 $305 $312 $326 $340 $364 71.6%

Pension 45 48 50 52 55 58 62 64 67 70 73 62.9%

Active Healthcare 21 27 26 29 29 31 34 37 42 44 52 141%

Retiree Healthcare 15 14 17 17 19 20 21 22 24 24 25 66.7%

Legal/Vision/Dental 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.4 13.5%

• Since 2003, Uniform compensation and benefit costs have increased 74.1%

9

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PART 2

Question 1: Ca

of the last plan

Fiscal Year

2011

Budget

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2012

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2013

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January 13, 2014Jan 13, 2014 · January 13, 2014 3 Financial Models Modifications to January 6 Models to reflect Task Force Input Heathcare Trend: 7% civilian/8% Uniform for 20 years