January 14, 2005 Supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation

Opening Doors: The rising proportion of Women and Minority Scientists and

Engineers in the United States

January 14, 2005

Supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation

Richard Freeman

Tanwin ChangHanley Chiang

Three Messages

1. Substantial increase in proportions of PhDs for women and underrepresented minorities something worked

2. “Attributable” largely to increase in BS degrees

3. Some evidence of policy contribution to improved diversity

SUPPLY INCREASES BUT ACADEMIC AND RESEARCH CAREER PROBLEMS

1.1 Percentage of S&E Bachelor’s Degrees Earned by Females, 1976-2001

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

All S&EPhysicalMath/CSLifeEngineerSoc/Psych

Source: Dept. of Health, Education, and Welfare, Office for Civil Rights; National Center for Education Statistics.

Note: Chart refers to bachelor’s degrees earned by U.S. citizens / permanent residents at U.S. institutions.

1.2 Percentage of S&E Doctorates Earned by Females, 1976-2001

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001


Source: Authors’ tabulations from the Survey of Earned Doctorates.

Note: Chart refers to doctorates earned by U.S. citizens / permanent residents at U.S. institutions.

1.3 Percentage of S&E Bachelor’s Degrees Earned by Underrepresented Minorities, 1976-2001

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%20%

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001


Source: Dept. of Health, Education, and Welfare, Office for Civil Rights; National Center for Education Statistics.

Note: Chart refers to bachelor’s degrees earned by U.S. citizens / permanent residents at U.S. institutions.

1.4 Percentage of S&E Doctorates Earned by Underrepresented Minorities, 1976-2001

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001




1.6 Percentage of S&E Doctorates Earned by Asian-American U.S. Citizens, 1976-2001

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001




2.1 Ratio of Doctorates to 5-Year Lagged Bachelor’s Degrees in S&E: By Demographic Group

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

White MalesFemalesMinoritiesAsians

Source: Authors’ tabulations from data obtained from the Survey of Earned Doctorates and the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare.

2.2 Ratio of Doctorates to 5-Year Lagged Bachelor’s Degrees: By Field

0

0.03

0.06

0.09

0.12

0.15

0.18

0.21

0.24

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001


Source: Authors’ tabulations from data obtained from the Survey of Earned Doctorates and the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare.

2.3 Decomposition of 1981-2000 Change in F/M and Minority/ Majority Ratios among PhD Recipients (ln units)

BA data lagged by 5 years compared to PhD dataMin: Underrepresented Minority

Change in Female/Male PhDs

= 0.74, explained by:

Rise in PhDs / BA(Females)16%

Rise in BA Females / BA Males.

70%

Fall in PhD/BA(Males)

14%

Change in (Min/Non-Min PhDs)= 0.82, explained by:

Rise in PhD/ BA(Minorities)

30%

Rise in BA Min / BA Non-Min 63%

Fall in PhD/BA(Non-Min)

7%

3.1 Percentage of NSF Fellowships Awarded to Women, 1952-2004

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

All FieldsComp SciEngineerLife SciPhys SciSocial/Psych

3.2 Percentage of NSF Fellowships Awarded to MinoritiesExcluding MGF Awards, 1976-2004

0.0%

3.0%

6.0%

9.0%

12.0%

15.0%

18.0%

21.0%

24.0%

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

All FieldsNatural/MathEngineeringSocial/Psych

3.3 Percentage of NSF Fellowships Awarded to MinoritiesIncluding MGF Awards, 1976-2004

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

All FieldsNatural/MathEngineeringSocial/Psych

3.4 Mean GRE Quantitative Scores for Individuals Intending Graduate Study in the Physical Sciences

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

Males Females Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians

1992-931997-982001-02

Source: ETS, Sex, Race, Ethnicity, and Performance on the GRE General Test, various years.

Note: Racial/ethnic categories only consist of U.S. citizens.

3.5 Mean GRE Quantitative Scores of GRFP and MGF Applicants, 1976-2004: By Selected Demographic Groups

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Non-Minority

Black GRFP

Hispanic GRFP

Black MGF

Hispanic MGF

1999-2004Female 0.033 0.036 0.037 0.042

(0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.003)Minority 0.089 0.069 0.078 0.033

(0.003) (0.002) (0.003) (0.005)Panel Rating 0.177 0.170 0.192

(0.001) (0.001) (0.002)GRE Quant/100 0.037 -0.010

(0.001) (0.001)GRE Verbal/100 0.066 0.019

(0.001) (0.001)GPA 0.094 -0.010

(0.003) (0.003)Reference Score 0.074 0.022

(0.001) (0.001)Field Effects Yes Yes Yes YesYear Effects Yes Yes Yes YesObservations 107658 115018 107597 38273R-Squared 0.1795 0.2609 0.2731 0.3089Mean of Dep. Var 0.133 0.128 0.133 0.143

1976-1998

3.6 Estimated Determinants of Getting GRF Award, 1976-2004

3.7 Wide Variation in % Female/MinorityAmong Universities in Same Discipline, 1996-2000

Example for women: Economics

5 lowest (171 PhDs) 15%

5 highest (155 PhDs) 45%

Example for minorities: Chemistry

5 lowest (439 PhDs) 2%

5 highest (303 PhDs) 19%

Mean Deviation of Percent Minority from “ExpectedPercent Minority

0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Mean deviation from Minority Fraction

Simulation:Random Distribution of minorities.1000 Runs

Num

ber

of S

imul

atio

n R

uns

Biology Depts. 6.8% Minority

Value calculated from data: 0.073

Conclusions

1. Women and minorities have made strong gains in representation in the S&E workforce

2. Some evidence for policies and programs, but

3. Most of the gains can be explained by increases in Bachelors’ – potentially normal supply response

4. Economists’ view: If they are in the workforce, want to use them optimally make career and life compatible: Childbearing issues for women

Mentoring for minorities and women

Role in team based science

Documents

January 14, 2005 Supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation