www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk

JANUARY 2021

PREAMBLE

Tree of the month to the 20th is the birch

Welcome to the January 2021 website entry, I hope that 2021 will be a better year in

so many respects for us all, maybe, just maybe, some of vaccines to counter this

damnable Corona virus will give us some protection, at the very least to reduce the

impact make a life a little more bearable for us all. Having said that such virus

outbreaks are never easy to control, it took over 200 years to control small pox;

HIV/AIDS now has some treatments after 30 years, but like influenza I fear

coronavirus will be forever present and we will have to adapt and get used to live

with it: despite all the above I wish every reader good fortune, good health and all

that you wish for in 2021.

…………………………………………………………

The wind direction on the 21st December – shortest day of the year, quarter day, St

Thomas’ was for those on the eastern side of the Pennines from the east, a stiff cold

raw wind too- exactly as predicted months ago, therefore the cold winter will ensue

with frost being the predominant factor. This easterly wind will therefore be with us

until well into April – at the earliest, quite possible a lot longer.

For those that enquired as to why so many berries, fruits seeds, hips and haws – all

up off the ground, you now have the answer, a lot of rain, very wet ground and

depletion or inaccessibility of ground feeding birds to find food – hence the

abundance of food higher off the ground; yet another example of how nature

prepares months ahead for such eventualities.

…………………………………………………………………..

So, what of January 2021 and what will it bring? Despite contrary/accepted views I

split winter into two parts, mid-November to mid-January as ‘early winter,’ which

whilst cold dark and full of inclement weather, it not generally that cold. From mid-

January to the end of March (which is again well in excess of the accepted normal

parameters for the winter they being December to the end of February) I call late

winter; this being the period that brings the real cold with February accepted as cold

month, however since I am a great believer and exponent of the accuracy of moon

phases, and I am working a good fifteen months ahead, I can see what lies ahead. I

have repeated for a few months now it will not be the mild winter of last year, it will

be a winter of frosts, and if cold enough, then for certain for some, especially those

who result in the regular snow hollows to the north and east, then snow may well

feature too. Stormy weather will be the feature for the first two weeks of the month,

but from the end of January frost will be with us as the predominant feature through

to maybe Easter (4th April), but as many will recall snow has been known to fall as

late as 23rd April (St George’s day). On the upside with frost at night and cold

days, then winds and rain are less likely, therefore whilst cold some pleasant

sunshine/brightness may well be with us after the third week of January. If you look

at the countryside, see how nature has stocked the food sources for the birds and

animals; several mails here on just how many hips, haws, seeds, berries, fruits etc

(best year for sloes for many a year – the same for acorns too) – everything again up

off the ground. This to me indicates the ground will be hard/frozen(but also maybe

flooded in some places) and for ground feeding birds, snails, slugs, worms and

insects will be in short supply – but to compensate nature provides the above –

teasels, burdock and other seed plants are in great supply too for these smaller

birds. Look too at the underside of the oak leaves at the small roundels there;

these are either/and silk button galls, common spangle galls, currant gall or cupped

spangle gall. These contain insects, you can prise them off with your finger from the

leaf, they in due course fall off the leaf and look carefully beneath the oak and you

will see these galls, they appear as brownish coloured soot specks, but are vital food

for the smaller ground feeding birds. Nature did not last year provide such a

bounteous food supple as it was a warm winter; such small signs whilst unseen,

unless you look and see, provide the vital clues towards a hard winter. The arctic

migrants arrived early too, in greater numbers than last year, another sign of colder

weather to arrive from Scandinavia.

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Many farmers/growers and those that work the land describe a ‘long hard winter’ as

one where their ability to get on do what is necessary is made difficult/impossible by

weather conditions, be it snow, flooding or frost; I predict another such long hard

winter, and do not forget that winter last year lasted 29 full weeks – by any means

that is a long hard winter – the results of which we are now seeing in the shops as

the price of anything connected with flour rises monthly – again as predicted. In

straightened times such as we are currently experiencing, such rises do not go un-

noticed and affect everyone.

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So I come now to the combined musings for January that I have collated from

numerous truly expert and reliable sources. “January is on average the coldest

month of the year in Britain. The coldest day of the year is traditionally associated

with St Hilary’s day, 13 January, and, in fact the three days 12 – 14 January do tend

to bring low temperatures to London, the Home Counties and South-east England.

But early January is just a continuation of the late December stormy weather, after a

break of a few days after the New Year. In some years the storms continue for

much of the period 5-17 January, though they are seldom as prolonged as this. In

mid-January a cold spell will often develop, with the result that there is a rapid

decrease in storms. It is associated with a considerable rise of barometric pressure

over central Europe and, to a lesser extent, over northern Europe. It occurs over

much of Britain in most years and results in remarkable frosts during some seasons.

It is interesting to note that this cold period in Britain coincides with a regular warm

period over the eastern USA know as the ‘January thaw.’ Towards the end of

January barometric pressure generally begins to fall again, normally quite

considerably, over most of Europe, leading to stormy periods in Britain too. On

average these periods last nine days from 24 January to 1 February – even if there

are one or two relatively fine days in the middle. Typical weather is dull, mild and

wet, but not particularly cold. One of the most destructive of the storms of this

period was that of 31 January to 1 February 1953, which brought the still

remembered north westerly gale in which the wind reached 126mph over the

Orkneys. A mass of water was driven southwards into the North Sea by the gale,

which, combining with the high spring tide, caused disastrous flooding on the east

coast of England and the coast of Holland with much loss of life. The same period

too saw the foundering of the Princess of Victoria ship in the North Channel during

the same severe gale – again with much loss of life.”

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Trees; The following was announced on 19th November 2020 by Rt Hon Lord Zac

Goldsmith, Minister for the Environment under whose aegis is also the forestry

commission.

More than 50 projects led by community and volunteer groups, councils and individuals have been awarded a share of a £10 million pot to increase tree numbers in urban areas through small-scale planting projects.

The funding has been awarded as part of the second and final round of the Forestry Commission’s Urban Tree Challenge Fund.

The second round will result in the planting of over 84,000 trees in towns and cities across England. The new trees will provide benefits to health and wellbeing, connect people with the outdoors, improve biodiversity, as well as play a crucial role in the fight against climate change.

Today’s announcement means that there will be a combined total of up to 134,000 new trees planted across England’s towns and cities, which surpasses the Fund’s original target to plant 130,000 trees.

Successful projects include:

The Darlington Forest project in County Durham, which will extend an existing green corridor in the area with the planting of 6,800 trees to improve the environment for wildlife as well as local communities. The area runs alongside the trackbed of the first

passenger steam railway and will help showcase Darlington’s heritage.

7,500 new trees in Eastbourne, East Sussex, to form part of a wider programme of natural environment improvement across the area.

952 new trees across two sites for the Christchurch project in Dorset. The planting of native species will provide a natural traffic noise and pollution buffer, improve their look and provide a refuge for wildlife.

8,234 new trees in Durham which will be planted at a number of locations to extend and link existing woodlands to enhance biodiversity and habitat connectivity, and improve areas of reclaimed land whilst also benefiting local communities.

However, on the downside, I find there is no available figure of the numbers of trees, including much ancient woodland, so far demolished during the construction of HS2. I include this clip that might well provide part of the answer. Sadly there are numerous such similar reports of neglect, malpractice and failure to understand the basics of forestry. Therefore the above item of 130000 new trees pales into insignificance. How sad indeed, when you lose historical ancient woodland you lose part of your heritage and history, such is the price of progress!

“A total of seven million new trees - a mix of oak, hazel, dogwood and holly - are being planted to compensate for the loss of woodland as part of the HS2 programme. One farmer from Southam estimated about 6,500 of the 8,000 trees on his land had died.”

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NAO report issued 4.12.2020 as I received it here

Achieving net zero

This report applies experience from auditing cross-government challenges to highlight the risks

government needs to manage to achieve net zero.

Background to the report

In June 2019, government passed legislation committing it to achieving ‘net zero’ greenhouse

gas emissions by 2050. Government set the net zero target to deliver on the commitments it

had made by signing the Paris Agreement in 2016. Government also aimed to set an example

for other countries to follow in the run-up to hosting the 26th United Nations’ Climate

Change Conference of the Parties (COP26). The conference is due to take place in Glasgow

in November 2021, having been postponed from November 2020 due to the COVID-19

pandemic.

Aiming for net zero represents an increase in the level of ambition from government’s

previous emissions reduction target. In 2008, government set a target for the UK to reduce its

greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 by 80% compared with 1990 levels. Between 2008 and

2018, the UK’s emissions reduced by 28%, faster than any other G20 economy. Reducing

emissions further to achieve net zero will require wide-ranging changes to the UK economy,

including further investment in renewable electricity generation, as well as changing the way

people travel, how land is used and how buildings are heated.

Content and scope of the report

This report is intended to support Parliamentary and public scrutiny of government’s

arrangements for achieving net zero, it is a companion to our recent report How government

is organised to achieve its environment goals. We have applied our experience from auditing

cross-government challenges to highlight the main risks government needs to manage if it is

to achieve net zero efficiently and effectively. In the future, we will assess how well

government is managing the risks highlighted in this report, and the value for money of

individual government interventions aimed at reducing emissions.

This report covers:

the scale of the challenge to achieve the net zero target, and the roles and responsibilities for achieving net zero within government (Part One);

the coordination arrangements that bring together the different government departments involved in achieving net zero (Part Two); and

the government’s plans for achieving net zero and the risks it needs to manage (Part Three).

Report conclusions

Government’s reorganisation of its approach to tackling climate change reflects the high

political priority attached to achieving net zero and the cross-government nature of the

challenge. While emissions have reduced steadily over recent years, particularly in the power

sector, achieving net zero will require wide-ranging changes across society and the economy

at a pace which leaves little room for delay. The Department for Business, Energy &

Industrial Strategy, alongside the other departments involved, is yet to put in place all the

essential components for effective cross-government working, such as integrated planning

and progress monitoring, and processes to manage interdependencies, to ensure all of

government steps up to this challenge. Beyond these internal structures government also

needs to spearhead a concerted national effort to achieve the ambitious outcome of net zero

greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. To do so, it needs to engage actively and constructively

with all those who will need to play a part – across the public sector, with industry and with

citizens – to inject the necessary momentum.

Publication details:

ISBN: 9781786043474 [Buy a hard copy of this report]

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Met Office issued on 7 December an interesting press release concerning hot and

cold across the UK, there is on the link below a facility to see how it will affect your

post code address

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-

climate/2020/climate-change-in-your-area.

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For tree lovers and other interested parties type ‘Treezilla’; into a search engine or

use the link below – very interesting project and one we can all participate in:

Treezilla - Forest Research www.forestresearch.gov.uk/.../treezilla

Treezilla is a free, online multi-purpose platform designed to support tree-related science projects as part of the Open Science Laboratory in the Science Faculty of the Open University. The objective is to create an online map of all the trees in the UK that can be used for 5 types of activity: Education, Outreach, Research, Inventory and Biological Surveillance.

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After a long absence from ITV This Morning I had an unexpected, but welcome call, and on Friday 18th December was the last This Morning Show of 2020 and the last for Eamonn and Ruth, with whom I have done about 20 shows, so a good friendship (after a rocky start with Eamonn), and they requested me onto their last show - the cream always rises to the top - ha ha. What you see is what you get with me, but it is honest and no bull-shit - in its own way it has a big following, therefore no complaints.

The link is below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuEkKVAw8YI

@David King Edenbridge December 2020

www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk

JANUARY 2021

NEW MOON 13th @ 0500hrs = Rain 1st QUARTER MOON = 20th @ 2102hrs = Snow if cold enough, else rain

FULL MOON 28th @ 1916 = Fair & Frosty LAST QUARTER MOON 6th @ 0937hrs = Cold rain.

DoP = 25th St Paul.

HIGHEST SPRING TIDES 14th – 16th AND 29th to 31st

Apogee 21st @ 1312hrs: Perigee 9th @ 1540hrs

Quadrantid Meteor shower 3rd/4th

FULL MOON IS KNOWN AS WOLF or OLDMOON/MOON AFTER YULE

MET OFFICENOTES: 5th to 17th Stormy; 18th to 24th quiet; 25th to 31st stormy again

BUCHAN NOTES = NONE

From the above, more rain, but also the warnings that if cold enough then snow, it is not insignificant that this snow period warning occurs around the third week of the month, therefore beware. There are no supermoons this month but there are two periods for those on floodplains, tidal waters and coastal waters should note. The first is

around the 14th to the 16th, when the highest spring tides occur in conjunction with the new moon – that carries rain. There is however no immediate perigee/apogee, but it is a stormy period. The second such warning comes 29th to the 31st, again the highest spring tides with a full moon on the 28th and a stormy period too. Both

these periods need caution but not to the scale of previous such

MONTHLY NOTES AND COMMENTS

1st Calends If Janiver Calends be summerly gay, wintery weather will continue to the Calends of May.

3rd It will be the same weather for 9 weeks as it is the ninth day after

Christmas. 3/4th Quadrantid meteor shower 5th Twelfth night. 6th Epiphany The days are lengthened a cocks stride. 8th Weather before noon foretells June, weather after noon that of May.

9th Weather before noon foretells August, weather after noon that of July. Perigee @ 1540hrs

10th Weather before noon foretells October, weather after noon that of

September. 11th Weather before noon foretells that of December, weather afternoon

that of November. Plough Monday 12th If the sun shines today it foretells much wind. 13th St Hilary Foretells the weather for the whole year - often considered the coldest

and/or the wettest day of the year (reliable). Homage day to the apple tree .

15th St Paul the Hermit If rain or snow this day there will be a blessing on the year. 17th St Sulphicius Frost augers well for the spring. 19th - 31st See rhyme below. 21st Apogee 13.12hrs 22nd St Vincent If the sky is clear, more water than wine will crown the year. If the sun

shines today (it foreshadows much wind), prosperous weather all year. 25th St Paul aka as St Annanias. It is said to predict the weather for the whole

year ahead (it is good for 6 months - but tails off after that - Ed) DAY OF PREDICTION. Also known as Egyptian Day. Burns Night. Arguably the most important day of the year.

31st Hazel Tree in flower. MET OFFICE NOTES: 5th to 17th Stormy. 18th to 24th Quiet. 25th to 31st Stormy

again. BUCHAN NOTES: NONE. Tree of the month is the Birch up to the 16th, thereafter the Rowan.

General Notes and Comments

As days lengthen so cold strengthens. The blackest month of the year.

In winter, after the prevalence of easterly winds, if the barometer begins to fall and the thermometer to rise, a gale which starts to blow from the SE will veer to the SW,

whilst the barometer falls constantly.

As soon as the wind passes the SW point the barometer begins to rise, a heavy shower of rain falls, and a strong W/NW or NE wind may follow, after which, the sky clears and

the weather becomes colder. [This is an exact UK weather pattern and true]

A January spring is worth nothing.

If no snow before the end of January there will be more in March & April.

1st - If this be a Sunday, winter will be cold and moist, spring windy, the summer hot, and, at

harvest time wind and rain with abundance of corn and other grain. If this be a Monday, severe and confused winter, good spring and windy summer.

If this be a Tuesday, dreary and severe winter. windy spring, rainy summer. If this a Wednesday, hard winter, bad spring, good summer.

If this be a Thursday, good winter, windy spring, good summer. If this be a Friday, variable winter, good spring and summer.

If this be a Saturday, snowy winter, blowing spring, wet summer.

Summerish January gives winterish spring. January commits the fault and May bears the blame.

If January the sun appear, March and April will pay full dear.

When Oak trees bend with snow in January, good crops may be expected.

March in January, January in March.

If grass do grow in Janiveer,’twill grow the worse for all the year.

If grain grows in January, a year of great need.

If birds begin to whistle, frosts to come.

Dry January plenty of wine. Wet January no wine.

Fog in January brings a wet spring.

Hoar frost and no snow is hurtful to fields, trees and grain.

Wet January, wet spring.

If January is wet the barrels stay empty (wine).

January freeze, the pot on the fire.

Gale force winds are quite common in January.

Remember on St Vincent’s Day (22nd), if the sun his beams display, ‘Tis a token bright and clear, of prosperous weather throughout the year,

More wine than water, much rye and wine.

St Vincent’s is normally a good weather day.

If the birds start singing on St Vincent’s day ‘twill be an early spring.

St Paul’s day is also St Annanias’s day (25th). If the sunshine on St Paul’s Day it betokens a good year; if snow or rain an indifferent year.

(a bad crop of grain) If cloudy & misty a great dearth and beasts and birds will die, if Thunder great winds are predicted and unrest will vex us all and cold will blow the

great winds of January. Clouds on St Annanias Day portend floods.

St Paul’s Day - It is necessary to observe and note down the phases of the day, hour by hour, or, even half an hourly, throughout the day from 6am to 6pm. This is due to

the belief that the hours of the day will reflect the weather, month by month throughout the year.

Generally these signs are dependable up to the end of July. However there is much truth in the above and 90% accuracy is quite normal - with 100% one year.

Snow usually falls in the third week of January. If it doesn’t fall then, then it won’t fall at all.

For farmers it is wise to plan your hay crop now. If the grass is already starting to grow, then do not look for two hay crops this year for the worse it will be later on, and vice-

versa.

The first three days of January rule the coming first three months.

Warm January, cold May. There will certainly be at least one very cold snap, very likely with snow too. It has been

known to arrive as early as Boxing Day (26th December) and as late as the 30th January. It will come and will probably be the worst cold snap of the year. There is

much truth in the saying that the hardest winters are those that start around twelfth night (6th), following a dry December. On snow - it is generally unknown, that if

snow lies for three days it will require another fall to take it away.

If late October and early November be warm and rainy, then January and February shall be frosty and cold. [check readings from previous year]

When the months of July, August and September are exceptionally hot, January will be the coldest month. [check previous readings]

Windy October - dry January. [check previous readings]

A dry and frosty Janiveer is like to make a plenteous year - a very dependable saying.

19th-31st. These last twelve days of the month rule the weather for the whole year.

Tree of the month is Birch up-to 15th. Thereafter the Rowan.

MONTHLY AVERAGES FOR EDENBRIDGE (USING 1981-2010 FIGURES)

Mean Max: 7.8C Mean Min: 1.C Mean Avg: 4.4C Rainfall: 83.6mm Sunshine: 69.3hrs (day = 2.23hrs) Whilst I appreciate the above are local figures, it will be an indication of what the averages

are, and, of course there will be local variations. Such variations can be found by trawling the various weather websites, or by using the superb data found in the Climatologists Observers Link website.

The following figures are for the average temperature at 12 noon and again at 4pm, taken at

the beginning and again at the end of the month. 1st 5.8C 5.8C 31st 5.7C 5.1C @David King Edenbridge December 2020

DATE Chandler & Gregory Brooks Lamb Buchan Met Office Season

Barry & Perry

January 01 31st Dec - 6th = 25th Dec - 1st Jan 20/11 -19/1

January 02 First winter minimum early winter

January 03 cold period

January 04

January 05 5th - 17th Stormy 5th - 11th Storminess of early January 5th - 17th

January 06 stormy

January 07 period

January 08 peak day

January 09

January 10

January 11

January 12

January 13

January 14

January 15

January 16

January 17

January 18 18th - 24th 18th - 24th 20/11 -19/1

January 19 anti-cyclonic quiet early winter

January 20 20th - 23rd Generally peak day 20th - 23rd Anti-cyclone period South & East period 20/1 - 29/3

January 21 dry & sunny peak day England late winter

January 22 in central and

January 23 southern England

January 24 24th - 1st Feb Stormy

January 25 25th - 31st

January 26 stormy

January 27 24th - 3rd Feb Renewed storminess of early period

January 28 January

January 29 Gales + rain or Snow

January 30 20/1 - 29/3

January 31 peak day late winter

Jan-21

Date Day Moon Weather DoP Saint/Holy Other Apogee Equinox Met Buchan Super- Highest

Day Day Perigee Eclipse Office moon tides

01/01/2021 F NONE

02/01/2021 S

03/01/2021 S quadrantids

04/01/2021 M meteor shower

05/01/2021 T stormy

06/01/2021 W LQ @ Cold rain Epiphany period

07/01/2021 T 0937hrs 5th

08/01/2021 F to

09/01/2021 S Perigee 17th

10/01/2021 S 1540hrs ]

11/01/2021 M ]

12/01/2021 T ]

13/01/2021 W NEW @ rain St Hilary ]

14/01/2021 T 0500hrs ] 14th

15/01/2021 F St Paul the hermit ] to

16/01/2021 S ] 16th

17/01/2021 S ends

18/01/2021 M quiet period

19/01/2021 T 18th

20/01/2021 W 1st Q @ Snow if to

21/01/2021 T 202 hrs cold enough Apogee 24th

22/01/2021 F else St Vincent 1312hrs ]

23/01/2021 S rain ]

24/01/2021 S ]

25/01/2021 M YES St Paul Burns night stormy

26/01/2021 T period

27/01/2021 W 25th

28/01/2021 T FULL @ Fair & to

29/01/2021 F 1916hrs frosty 31st 29th

30/01/2021 s ] to

31/01/2021 s ] 31st