Japan-ASEAN Science, Technology and Innovation Platform (JASTIP) Report of JASTIP-Net Activity

Date: 6 / 12 /2017

1. Research partner

Affiliated Organization

Name Muhamad Ali Muhammad Yuzir

Affiliation Malaysia-Japan International Institute Technology (MJIIT), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM)

Position Associate Professor

Address

Disaster Preparedness & Prevention Centre (DPPC) Malaysia-Japan International Institute of Technology (MJIIT) Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Jalan Sultan Yahya Petra, 54100 Kuala Lumpur.

2. Collaborative research

Collaborative research theme

Headquarters ¨ To Develop Operational Linkages and Human Resources among

Academic Sector, Government Agencies, and Private Sectors in

ASEAN countries and Japan.

¨ To Introduce Various STI Collaborations for Effectively and Efficiently into the Society based on the three joint laboratories’

activities.

Energy & Environment Joint Lab ¨ Studies on Rural/Community Renewable Energy.

¨ Development of Renewable Energy Technology adapted to the ASEAN region.

¨ Studies on Energy Policy/Security in the ASEAN region.

Bioresources & Biodiversity Lab ¨ Studies on Biodiversity in the ASEAN Region Contributing to the

Improvement of Identification, Collection and/or Information. ¨ Sustainable Utilization of Bioresources for Biorefinery,

Bioremediation, Wood Construction, Food or Medicine.

¨ Plant Improvement for Agroforestry Systems and Carbon

Sequestration Contributing to the Mitigation of and/or Adaptation

to Climate Change.

Disaster Prevention Joint Lab ☐Innovative Ideas on Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Recovery

Technologies and Policies Peculiar to Each ASEAN Country.

☐How to Cope with Trans-Boundary Disasters in the ASEAN

Region Such as Tsunami, Flood, Drought and Haze. þ Understanding and Quantitative Evaluation of Disaster Risks

Peculiar to ASEAN Countries.

Collaborative research title

Assessing Water Quality in the Langat River Basin during Disaster Period using Integrated Remote Sensing & Modelling Technologies

Host core-researcher

Prof Kaoru Takara

3. Members

Name Professor Masafumi Goto

Affiliation MJIIT-UTM Position Professor

Name Dr Chow Ming Fai

Affiliation UNITEN Position Senior Lecturer

Name Dr Norhayati Abdullah

Affiliation MJIIT-UTM Position Associate Professor

Name Dr Nor Eliza Alias

Affiliation UTM Position Senior Lecturer

Name Professor Ismail Abustan

Affiliation USM Position Professor

Name Dr Chong Khai Lin

Affiliation UUM Position Senior Lecturer 4. Report of activities Please describe 1) research activities and major findings and 2) their academic and social implications toward achieving the SDGs within 2 pages. You can include tables, figures and photos if necessary. Our research group went to Kyoto University in February 2017 to extract Japanese Global Climate Model (MRI-AGCM – SOUSEI PROGRAM) data extraction in Professor Nakakita’s Lab. For this JASTIP-Net Grant, 2 students are working for this research; Siti Hafsah Zulkarnain (PhD candidate registered in February 2017) and Muhammad Hassim (MPhil candidate registered in September 2017). Siti Hafsah Zulkarnain PhD title is “Framework of Determining the Property Value using Valuation Method Toward Flood Disaster in Langat River Basin” and Muhammad Hassim MPhil title is “Modelling of flood water quality in Langat River Basin”.

This research will focus at Langat River Basin. Langat River Basin is a rapid development area. Some major construction projects such as new federal government administrative capital of Putrajaya, the multimedia super corridor

(MSC), Cyberjaya, and the Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA) are located on the river basin area. The Langat River Basin is also centre to the manufacturing industry in the State of Selangor. In addition to its important role in basin ecology, Langat River is also one of the major contributors to drinking water, industrial and agriculture.

Our entire study will use the XPSWMM software and Arc-GIS software (purchased by Kyoto University under JASTIP-Net) to analyze the collected data ie secondary data and observed data. This software is a fully dynamic hydraulic and hydrologic modelling software that combines 1D calculations for upstream to downstream flow with 2D overland flow calculations so that we can see what truly happens to our storm water system, foul water system or floodplain when waters flow, populations increase or catastrophic events hit. Its use over the last 25 years, as well as its UK Environment Agency benchmark testing and U.S. FEMA approval, has made it one of the most stable and well-used simulation software programs in the world. XPSWMM allows us to integrated analysis of flow, pollutant transport and sustainable design measures in engineered and natural systems including ponds, rivers, lakes, overland floodplains and the interaction with groundwater.

This research will also focus on determining property value using economic valuation method towards flood disaster and water quality analysis in Langat River Basin. This study will analyse how flood modelling can be used to simulate flood and estimate the property valuation damages cause by flood in Langat River Basin.

At Kyoto University on 24th February 2017 to extract Japanese Global Climate Model (MRI-AGCM – SOUSEI PROGRAM) data extraction in Professor Nakakita’s Lab

Oral Presentation at 3rd JASTIP Symposium in Bangkok, Thailand on 5th February 2017

5. List of publications - 6. List of oral presentations

Siti Hafsah Zulkarnain, Muhamad Ali Muhammad Yuzir, Muhammad Najib Razali, “A Conceptual Framework of Determining the Property Value using Economic Valuation Method Towards Floods Disaster in Langat River Basin” The 5th Regional Conference of Natural Disaster (RCND) 2017, Bangkok, Thailand, 20-21st Sept. 2017

A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF DETERMINING THE PROPERTY VALUE USING

ECONOMICVALUATIONMETHODTOWARDSFLOODSDISASTERINLANGATRIVER

BASIN1SitiHafsahZulkarnain,2MuhamadAliMuhammadYuzir,3MuhammadNajibRazali

1CentreofStudiesofEstateManagement

FacultiofArchitecture,PlanningandSurveying

UniversitiTeknologiMARA,40450ShahAlam,Malaysia

Email:cthafsah2u@gmail.com

2Malaysia-JapanInternationalInstituteofTechnology(MJIIT)

UniversitiTeknologiMalaysia(UTM)

KualaLumpur,Malaysia

Email:muhdaliyuzir@utm.my

3DepartmentofRealEstate

FacultyofGeoinformationandRealEstate

UniversitiTeknologiMalaysia(UTM)

Skudai,JohorBahru,Malaysia

Email:mnajibmr@utm.my

Abstract — The purpose of this paper is to inform a conceptual framework of economic valuation towards floods disaster. The existing pattern, themes and issues associated with economic of valuation towards flooding were identified and used to inform the conceptual framework. The review approach was based on related literature contributing to identify themes as “floods disaster” and “property value”. The generic conceptual framework presented explores the interaction between different internal and external factors affecting the economic value of properties. An extensive review of previous studies in economic valuation of property for different floods disaster studies considered to be main restrictive factor resulting in lack of empirical studies in this field. Practitioners and researchers will find this study useful in developing an improved understanding of the economic valuation to flooding. The conceptual framework is important outcome of the research which will encourage further research in this area of study.

Keywords: Conceptual framework, Floods, Economic

Valuation,Propertyvalue

I. INTRODUCTION Naturaldisasterhavemanydifferentcausesandinclude

geophysicaldisasterssuchasearthquakes,tsunamis,and

hydro-meteorologicaldisastersuchascyclonesandfloods

[34].Manydisasteroccuronwidelydifferentscalewith

differentimpactandlittlewarningisgiven.Theresulting

damage takes many different forms, including death and

displacementofmanypeople,aswellasdamagetoland,

building,cropsandlivestock.

Floodinghasbeenmoresignificantinrecentyearsdue

toincreasedurbandevelopment,withsubsequentincreases

inwaterrun-offandchangesinworldweatherpatterns[12].

The occurrence of such heavy rainfall and subsequent

floodinghasnotonlyraisedtheissuesofclimaticchange

andtheeffectontheenvironmentbutalsothemorelocal

issuesoftheimpactonresidentialpropertydevelopment,

residential property price [26] and the ability of

residential property owner to gain both finance and

insurancefortheirproperties[11].

Malaysiaisacountryverypronetofloodrisk,

mostlybynatureofitsphysicalaswellitshuman

geographyaslandusepatternofsettlements.

ComparedtoothertypesofdisasterinMalaysia,

floodarethemostfrequentandgivesgreatest

damagetothepropertiesannually.

The frequent occurrence of flooding in

Peninsular Malaysia the damage caused can be

significantinrelationtobothpropertydamage

andservicedisruption.Propertywithphysically

damagedrequireshigheroperatingcostofrepair

andmaintenancewhichmightaffectdirectlythe

valueoftheproperty.

II. PROBLEM STATEMENT

In Malaysia, floods are caused by a combination of

naturalandhumanfactors.Coupledwithnaturalfactorssuch

asheavymonsoonrainfall,intenseconvectionrainstorms,

poordrainageandotherlocalfactors,floodhavebecomea

commonfeatureinthelivesofasignificantnumberof

Malaysians[7].

Duringthefloodsgenerallythevaluernotpresentand

they must rely on second hand information from local

residentsaboutfloodvelocitiesandcontaminationcontent

[22].Alackofconsistencyintheprocessofassessing

damage could result in varied repair methods being

recommended for similarly affected properties. The

valuationprocessindeterminedthecurrentmarketvalue

afterdisastermightbedifferentbetweenoneandanother

propertyinsamelocation.

The issues for the professional valuer is how to

correctlyidentifytheimpactoffloodandhowtoinclude

theseintovaluationreport[10].Theliteratureindicates

thedifficultiesinassessingflooddamagesbecauseofthe

lackofknowledgeamongstvaluer[25].

SeasonalrainbeganinnorthernandwesternPeninsular

MalaysiastartingbyendofDecember2016.Significantly

heavyrainfrom23January2017havecausedfloodingtosix

(6) states in Malaysia including Kelantan, Terengganu,

Perak,Pahang,JohorandSelangor.Thestatisticofnumber

ofevacuationoffamiliesatevacuationcentresforeach

statesareasTable1.

Table1:Evacuationfamiliesatevacuation

centresas

1stFebruary2017

State Totalnumber

offamilies

Total number

ofevacuation

Kelantan 21 105

Terengganu 30 93

Perak 181 576

Pahang 891 3,210

Johor 382 1,390

Selangor 11 62

Source: Portal Bencana, National Disaster

ManagementAuthority(NADMA,2017)

As a results of seasonal floods occurring almost

annuallyinonepartofthecountryoranother,floodlosses

in terms of loss of life and damage to properties are

substantial. Damage caused during flood events can be

attributedtoseveralfactorswhichcanalsoaffectthe

propertyvalue[3].

An appropriate economic valuation assessment also

assistsinvaluingapropertyafterdisaster.Theflood

proneareaneedtotakeintoaccounttheriskelementswhile

doingvaluationoftheproperty.Thevalueoftheriskis

eitherthecostofnotbeingaffectedbythedisasterorthe

costofbearingnolosswhenthedisastereffectivelyoccurs

[11].

House price then reveal individual preferences [23]

regarding the acceptance risk [21], assuming that

appropriatecontrolfordifferenceinthepropertyandthe

location[22]areincluded.Therearedifferencebetween

pricesofhouseslocatedinsideandoutsideaspecificflood

riskzone[15].

In response to these issues, the following problem

statementhasbeendeveloped:

“Asfloodsandpropertyvaluebecomemore

prevalent, improved valuation method

practicearerequiredforvaluerandproperty

stakeholderstodeterminethepropertyvalue

beforeandafterdisasteranddevelopedan

economicvaluationmodelofvaluation”.

III. OBJECTIVE OF RESEARCH The aim of this research is to develop an Economic

ValuationModelusingE-ViewSoftwareindeterminingthe

residentialpropertyvalueafterdisasteroccurs.Therefore,

toachievethisaim,alistofresearchobjectivesare

identifiedandlistedasfollows:

a. To determine the effects of floods on

residentialpropertyvalue.

b. TodevelopEconomicValuationModelofflood

impacttowardspropertyvalue.

c. Tocalibrateandvalidatethedevelopedmodel

usingE-ViewsoftwareandintegratedwithGIS.

d. Toestimatethepropertyvaluebeforeandafter

disasterwithinLangatRiverBasin.

IV. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

TheresearchmethodologyispresentedinFigure

1.Theresearchaimsandobjectivewereachieved

throughaliteraturereview,questionnairesurvey,

developmentofequationandvaluationmodellingand

integratedfloodzonemap,structuredinterviewsor

focalgroupamongstexpertarea,andanalysisof

case study. The methodology is designed by

separating this research works into four main

stagesasbelow:-

Figure1:ResearchMethodologyFlowchart

A. Stage 1: Atfirststage,problemstatement,objectivesand

research methodology will be determined. The

researchbeganwithliteraturereviewrelatingto

flood-risk and property, examining previous

research journal and report. The literature

reviewcoveredoverseaandlocalexperienceand

focusonfloodandtheimpacttopropertyvalue.

B. Stage 2: Thecasestudyandmodeldevelopmentneedtobe

determineatthisstage.LangatRiverBasinis

chosenascasestudyandanalysisofimpactof

floodintermsoffrequency,durationanddepth

offloodasresearchvariables.

ThedevelopmentofEconomicValuationModelwith

theparticipationfrompropertyexpertpanelas

a guidance in determination of the valuation

factorthatwillgiveimpacttopropertyvalue.

Thekeystakeholdersinthisresearcharevaluer,

developer,lender,propertyoccupier,investors

andrelatedgovernmentagencies.

Thesurveywasfollowedbyastructureddiscussionwith

representatives of the key stakeholders groups to

developmoredetailsontheresultsandhighlightsother

significantissues.

C. Stage 3: Atthisstage,PropertyValuationModelneedto

be calibrate and validate. Identification of

relevant variables to formulate an Economic

Valuation Modelling and integrated with Flood

ZoneMapusingGeographicalInformationSystem

(GIS).TheformationoftheResidentialValuation

modelforflooddisasterriskisusingE-View

Software.

D. Stage 4: Atthisstage,thedeterminingofpropertyvalue

will be done. Data collected from National

PropertyInformationCentre(NAPIC)willbeused

todeterminethepropertyvaluebeforeandafter

flooddisastereventinLangatRiverBasinarea.

V. CASE STUDY: LANGAT RIVER BASIN LangatRiverBasiniscurrentlythefastestdeveloping

areainthecountryandbeingimportantwatercatchmentarea,

asourceofhydropower,andasourceofrawwatersupplyand

anotheramenities[16].ThesurroundingareaofLangatRiver

Basinisfacingmassdevelopmentintermsofurbanisation,

industrialisation,highwaysandagriculturetomorethan

1.59millionpeopleintownssuchasKajang,Bangi,Cheras

andPutrajaya.

Table2:OverviewofLangatRiverBasin

Overview Description

Transboundary Covers 3 states including Selangor (78%),

NegeriSembilan(19%)andFederalTerritories

ofPutrajaya(3%).

Location Situatedapproximately27kmtothesouthof

KualaLumpur(capitalcityofMalaysia).

Totalbasin

area

2,350km.sq.and200kmlong

Topography Approximately90%mountainouswithamaximum

heightof1400mabovesealevel.

Climate Tropicalwithameanannualtemperatureof

32oC.

Average

annual

rainfall

depth

Approximately2,400mmrangingfrom1,800to

3,000mm.

Population 1,184,917millionin2000,growthrate7.64%

Geographical

location

Located ant latitude 02o50’48”N and

longitude101o40’48”E.

Main

catchment

area

Dividedintofive(5)catchmentscomprising

of the Lui, Kajang, Semenyih, Dengkil and

combined small catchments of Beranang and

Labu.

Catchmentarea Area

km2

Lui 70.7625

Dengkil 234.273

Kajang 310.77

Semenyih 695.548

LowerLangat 698.713

Total (Langat

basin)

2012.07

Monsoon

seasons

Twomonsoonseasonsinayear,thenortheast

monsoonfromNovembertoMarchandsouthwest

monsoonbetweenMayandSeptember.

(Sources:Billa,Assilzadeh,Mansor,Mahmud,&Ghazali,2011)

The event of flood can cause significant damage to the lives and properties [18] of those living within the affected area. The overview of Langat River Basin as Table 2 and Figure 1.

Figure1:LangatRiverBasin

VI. FLOOD DISASTER INFORMATION FOR PROPERTY VALUATION

Floodsareaninevitablephenomena,theirimpactcould

beminimizedbyappropriateactionpriortoandafterthe

flood[43].Infloodscenario,themostcriticalpartin

evaluatetheflooddamageassessmentarerelyonhowto

quantifyingfloodimpactandexpressingtheseimpactin

monetaryvalues.

Duringtheinspectionandpreparingthevaluation

report,thevaluerneedtohavetheinformationregarding

thefloodeventsintheearlystageasFigure2.

Figure2:Floodinformation

Handlingthevaluationtaskrelatedtofloodismore

challengingtothevaluerindeterminingthewaterrisksand

addressthepotentialandactualrisksinthevaluation

report[10].

Theissuesrisingtotheprofessionalvaluer:

a. Howtocorrectlyidentifypotentialwaterrisk?

b. Howtoincludetherisktovaluationreport?–

failuretoidentifyandaddresstheriskinthe

valuationreportmayleadtolitigation.

Valuationreportsneedtobepreparedbythevaluerbased

ontheinstructiongivenfromtheclients.Inorderto

derivethepropertyvalueafterdisaster,manyaspectneed

to be taken into account. [11] identified two (2)

difficultiesinthecontextoffloodriskvaluation.First,

thebiassubjectivetoindividuallevelofperceptionin

acceptanceofriskamongthepropertyowner.

Second,thecoincidenceofwater-relatedamenitiesand

water-relatedrisks.Inthiscase,valuerneedtocompare

housepricesbeforeandafterfloodevents.Theintegration

ofvaluationprocesswithGeographicalInformationSystem

(GIS)mayimprovetheorganizationofdataintermsof

distancetotheelevationandwaterfront.

VII. ECONOMIC VALUATION MODEL FOR FLOOD DISASTER IMPACT ANALYSIS

A. Flood Hazard Parameter Impactduetourbanfloodsaresignificantintermsof

economiclossesbothdirectandindirect.Thisisduetohigh

densityofpopulation,largeimperviousareas,cloggingof

drainagesystem,higheconomicvaluesofpropertiesand

infrastructures.Theimpactofurbanfloodscanbephysical

and

The model identified the damaged caused by floods

consistsoftwo(2)keyfactors,thatisbuildingandflood

Flood information

Flood affected - to what extent?

The date of the

last flood

Distance to

floodplain area

Height above

sea level

Distance from any

water course

Construction and location on adjoining land

or building since the last

flood Construction or

any public workin the area

which may affect water

flow

characteristicasTable3.

Table3:Keyfactorofdamagedcausedbyflood

Keyfactor Description

1. Buildingcharacteristic

Include:

(a) Frequency of the dwelling being

flooded.

(b) Materialthebuildingisconstructed

from.

(c) Drying characteristic of the

material.

(d) Conditionofthebuildingpriorto

beingflooded.

2. Floodcharacteristic

(a) Flooddepth–influencingthescale

offlooddamage.Flooddepthgreater

then1mabovefloorlevelmaydamage

thebuildingstructure.

(b) Velocityoffloodwater–related

todistancefromthefloodsourceand

hencethedepthoffloodwater.The

greaterthefloodwatervelocity,the

greatertheprobabilityofstructural

damage.

(c) Floodwatercontaminants

i. Influencethewaterabsorption

ofthebuildingmaterial.

ii. Influence the drying time of

material.

iii. Influencerepaircoststhroughtheworkinvolvedintheremoval

ofphysicaldeposits.

iv. Embryonic form may become a

dangertooccupier’shealth.

(d) Durationofflood–thelongerthe

durationoftheflood,themoredamage

it will cause to the building and

prolonging subsequent drying and

repairworks.

(e) Source of the flood – river,

stream,dam,sewer,whichrelatesto

thelocationofthedwelling.

(Source:Soetanto&Proverbs,2006)

B. Factor effecting the property value

Residentialpropertiesisauniqueproductthatneedto

meettherequirementsofpurchaserstoownorbuyahouse

for the purposes of investment. The complexity of the

residentialdevelopmentnowdays,givemorechallengingto

thedeveloperstoproducemorecomprehensivedevelopmentof

residentialareawithaconducivelivingenvironmentand

excellentamenitiestotheresidents.Manyfactorinvolved

indeterminingthemarketvalueofresidentialproperty

insteadofconsiderationofdemandandsupplyasamain

determinationofpropertyprice.

Acomprehensivesummaryoftheliteraturereflectthat

thereexistseveralstudyrelatedtothefactoraffecting

theresidentialpropertyvaluefocusingbothatlocaland

internationalscenario.Basedonthepreviousresearch,the

factorthateffectingthepropertyvaluearelocation[47],

structural,neighborhood[42],community,environment[39],

housingfeatures[8]suchasnumberofroom,bathroom,age

ofproperty,sizeoflandandbuildupareaofthebuilding.

Theformationofmodelequationinevaluatingtheeffect

offloodonresidentialpropertyvalueinthisstudyareas

follows:

LogPί=β0+β1FREίt+β2DURίt+β3DEPίt+β4BUSίt+

β5BUS2ίt+β6CITYίt+β7CITY

2ίt+β8AGEίt+β9

LANDίt+β10BUILTίt+β11BATHίt+β12BEDίt+β13

AIRPORTίt +β14 AIRPORT2ίt +β15 HOSPITALίt +β16

HOSPITAL2ίt+β17SCHOOLίt+β18SCHOOL

2ίt+ 1(FRE

*AGE)ίj+ 2(FRE*LAND)ίj+ 3(FRE*BUILT)ίj+ 4

(DUR*AGE)ίj+ 5(DUR*LAND)ίj+ 6(DUR*BUILT)ίj

+ 7(DEP*AGE)ίj+ 8(DEP*LAND)ίj+ 9(DEP*

BUILT)ίj+μί

Table4showsthedescriptionandmeasurementunit

ofthevariablefortheaboveequation.

Table4.DescriptionandMeasurementUnitsofVariables

Variable Description MeasurementUnit

P Price of residential

propertyvalue

RinggitMalaysia(RM)

FRE Frequencyofflood Numberoftimeswithin

5yearsstudy

DUR Durationofflood Numberofdays

DEP Depthofflood Metres(m)

BUS Distancetothenearestbus

station

Kilometres(km)

CITY Distancetothenearestcity

centre

Kilometres(km)

AGE Ageofhouse Numberofyears

LAND Sizeoflandarea Squarefoot(sq.ft)

BUILT Sizeofbuiltarea(floor) Squarefoot(sq.ft)

BATH Bathroom Numberofrooms

BED Bedroom Numberofrooms

AIRPORT Distance to the nearest

airport

Kilometres(km)

HOSPITAL Distance to the nearest

hospital

Kilometres(km)

SCHOOL Distance to the nearest

school

Kilometres(km)

FRE*AGE Interactiontermoffloodfrequencyandhouseage

FRE*LAND Interactiontermoffloodfrequencyandsizeofland

FRE*BUILT Interactiontermoffloodfrequencyandsizeofbuilt

area(floor)

DUR*AGE Interactiontermofflooddurationandhouseage

DUR*LAND Interactiontermofflooddurationandsizeofland

DUR*BUILT Interactiontermofflooddurationandsizeofbuilt

area(floor)

DEP*AGE Interactiontermofflooddepthandhouseage

DEP*LAND Interactiontermofflooddepthandsizeofland

DEP*BUILT Interactiontermofflooddepthandsizeofbuiltarea

(floor)

VIII. CONCLUSION These findings is very useful as a benchmarks to valuers and

property players while carried out a valuation inspection and assessing the flood risk for residential property. The characteristic of flood events in several places is vary and critical in determining of impact of flood towards property value. The conceptual framework is important outcome of the research which will encourage further research in this area of study.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT The researchers wish to express their gratitude to various

parties and agencies involved in this research as follows:-

a. NationalDisasterManagementAuthority(NADMA)

b. NationalPropertyInformationCentre(NAPIC)

c. DepartmentofIrrigationandDrainage

d. UniversitiTeknologiMARA(UiTM)

e. UniversitiTeknologiMalaysia(UTM)

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