Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Jean-Antoine Watteau, Les fatigues de la guerre (c. 1716)
War & War & SecuritySecurity
Source: Reuters and Source: Reuters and LibLibérationération
Source: Calgary HeraldSource: Calgary Herald
TodayToday
General remarksGeneral remarks War in the modern periodWar in the modern period Postwar, Cold WarPostwar, Cold War Insecurity in the post-Cold WarInsecurity in the post-Cold War
2
““War”: A conventional War”: A conventional definitiondefinition
““War is a period of armed hostilities within or War is a period of armed hostilities within or between states or other collectivities…. In between states or other collectivities…. In war, killing and physical destruction are both war, killing and physical destruction are both expected and condoned, although the expected and condoned, although the participants are expected to follow the participants are expected to follow the boundaries and constraints established by boundaries and constraints established by existing laws and norms.” existing laws and norms.” Allen Sens and Peter Stoett, Allen Sens and Peter Stoett, Global Politics: Global Politics: Origins, Currents, DirectionsOrigins, Currents, Directions, p. 189, p. 189
3
Two basic typesTwo basic types
Interstate war Interstate war (international war)(international war)
Between 2 or more Between 2 or more statesstates
The main focus of The main focus of International RelationsInternational Relations
What sovereignty What sovereignty should preventshould prevent
What the UN should What the UN should prevent or stopprevent or stop
Civil war (communal Civil war (communal war; internal war; internal conflict)conflict)
Between factions, Between factions, ethnic groups, etc.ethnic groups, etc.
After collapse of the After collapse of the government government (sometimes)(sometimes)
Previously overlookedPreviously overlooked Now taken more Now taken more
seriouslyseriously Connect with Connect with
humanitarian humanitarian intervention debateintervention debate
4
Security: a traditional Security: a traditional definitiondefinition
National securityNational security• Security of the nation-Security of the nation-
statestate• Security of the Security of the
institutionsinstitutions• Security of the Security of the
leadershipleadership• Security of the territorySecurity of the territory
International securityInternational security• Stability of the Stability of the
international systeminternational system• Absence of interstate Absence of interstate
war = peacewar = peace• A commonly used A commonly used
phrase: “international phrase: “international peace and security”peace and security”
• A A narrownarrow definitiondefinition
• Two dimensionsTwo dimensions
5
Polarity: the distribution of Polarity: the distribution of powerpower
Unipolarity:: one uncontested state. one uncontested state.Variation: hegemonic state (most powerfulVariation: hegemonic state (most powerfulbut can’t act alone).but can’t act alone).Ex.: Britain in the 1800s; US in 1945.Ex.: Britain in the 1800s; US in 1945.
Bipolarity:: two roughly equal states. two roughly equal states.
Ex.: Cold War.Ex.: Cold War.
Multipolarity:: 3 or more roughly equal 3 or more roughly equal states. states.
Ex.: Europe in 1648 and the world before Ex.: Europe in 1648 and the world before World War IIWorld War II..
100 lbs. 100 lbs.
10 lbs.10 lbs.
20 lbs. 20 lbs.10 lbs.20 lbs.
10 lbs.
35 lbs.
20 lbs.
20 lbs.
20 lbs.35 lbs.
10 lbs.
10 lbs.10 lbs.
10 lbs.
10 lbs.
10 lbs.
100 lbs.
20 lbs.
10 lbs.
35 lbs.
20 lbs.
20 lbs.
6Measuring
power:
see Spiegel, pp.
249-255
Measuring
power:
see Spiegel, pp.
249-255
20 lbs.
20 lbs.
20 lbs.
20 lbs.
20 lbs.
100 lbs. =
20 lbs.
20 lbs.
20 lbs.
20 lbs.
100 lbs.
20 lbs.
20 lbs.
20 lbs.
20 lbs.
20 lbs.
100 lbs.20 lbs. =
20 lbs.
20 lbs.
20 lbs.
20 lbs. 20 lbs.
20 lbs.
=
20 lbs.
20 lbs.
20 lbs.
20 lbs.
20 lbs.
20 lbs.
Balancer that shifts from one alliance to the other to keep the balance
Allied states
Neutral state
AlliancesAlliances
War since 1648War since 1648
8
The principle of The principle of sovereignty: Does it sovereignty: Does it work?work?
Limited goals of the sovereignty Limited goals of the sovereignty principleprinciple
Major wars vs. “minor” warsMajor wars vs. “minor” wars
3 major exceptions3 major exceptions
Return to Westphalian principles Return to Westphalian principles (more or less)(more or less)
Other exceptionsOther exceptions• War of Spanish Succession, 1701-1714War of Spanish Succession, 1701-1714• War of Austrian Succession, 1740-1748War of Austrian Succession, 1740-1748• Seven Years’ War, 1756-1763Seven Years’ War, 1756-1763• Crimean War, 1853-1856Crimean War, 1853-1856• Franco-Prussian War, 1870-1871Franco-Prussian War, 1870-1871• Spanish-American War, 1898Spanish-American War, 1898
Other exceptionsOther exceptions• War of Spanish Succession, 1701-1714War of Spanish Succession, 1701-1714• War of Austrian Succession, 1740-1748War of Austrian Succession, 1740-1748• Seven Years’ War, 1756-1763Seven Years’ War, 1756-1763• Crimean War, 1853-1856Crimean War, 1853-1856• Franco-Prussian War, 1870-1871Franco-Prussian War, 1870-1871• Spanish-American War, 1898Spanish-American War, 1898
9
Major exception 1: Major exception 1: the Napoleonic warsthe Napoleonic wars
The French The French RevolutionRevolution
Religion vs. Religion vs. SecularismSecularism
English English interference in interference in France France
Revolutionary ideas Revolutionary ideas & their promotion& their promotion libertyliberty equalityequality fraternityfraternity
NationalismNationalism
Quadruple Alliance, 1813, that defeated France•Austria •Britain•Prussia•Russia
Quadruple Alliance, 1813, that defeated France•Austria •Britain•Prussia•Russia
The end of the Napoleonic The end of the Napoleonic wars: “A world restored”wars: “A world restored”
Congress of Vienna (1815) Congress of Vienna (1815) & the Concert of Europe& the Concert of Europe
Relative peace & security Relative peace & security in Europin Europee
State unifications in State unifications in Europe: Germany, Italy, Europe: Germany, Italy, SwitzerlandSwitzerland
Colonization of Asia & Colonization of Asia & AfricaAfrica
Henry Kissinger (1923–), former professor, US Secretary of State, and author of the book A World Restored.
11
Europe 1815-1900Europe 1815-1900
Europe after the Congress of Vienna (1815) Europe in 1900Europe after the Congress of Vienna (1815) Europe in 1900
▼ ▼▼ ▼
12
Major exception 2: World Major exception 2: World War IWar I
Immediate causeImmediate cause
Ultimate causeUltimate cause Germany, a late Germany, a late
bloomerbloomer statehood, statehood,
nationalism & empirenationalism & empire
Germany’s desire Germany’s desire to expand to expand
The alliancesThe alliances
13
The end of World War I The end of World War I and the interwar yearsand the interwar years
Stalemate & US Stalemate & US interventionintervention
The treaty of The treaty of VerVersailles and sailles and the the “self-“self-determideterminationnation ofof peoples”peoples”
New states in New states in EuEuroperope
The treatment of The treatment of Germany:Germany: an an unwise decisionunwise decision
14
Major exception 3: World Major exception 3: World War IIWar II The continuation of World War I in Europe?The continuation of World War I in Europe? The emergence of Japan as regional powerThe emergence of Japan as regional power Other causes: Nationalism & leaders’ Other causes: Nationalism & leaders’
psychologypsychology
15
What have we learned about What have we learned about war so far?war so far?
The emergence of “total wars”The emergence of “total wars”
With nationalism, With nationalism, peoplespeoples are at war are at war
Technology & weaponryTechnology & weaponry
16
Postwar, Cold WarPostwar, Cold War
17
USAUSA
USSRUSSRUnion of Soviet Socialist RepublicsUnion of Soviet Socialist Republics
The end of World War II The end of World War II & the Cold War& the Cold War
Why “cold”?Why “cold”? 2 superpowers with a global reach2 superpowers with a global reach Defined international and domestic politicsDefined international and domestic politics Both conflict & cooperationBoth conflict & cooperation
Some significant eventsSome significant events
• 19451945: US uses atomic bombs: US uses atomic bombs
• 19471947: Cold War begins: Cold War begins
• 1948-19491948-1949: Berlin Blockade: Berlin Blockade
• 19491949: USSR gets atomic bomb: USSR gets atomic bomb
• 19611961: Berlin Crisis & Berlin : Berlin Crisis & Berlin WallWall
• 19621962: Cuban missile crisis: Cuban missile crisis
• 1964-19751964-1975: Vietnam war (US : Vietnam war (US defeat)defeat)
• 1980-19881980-1988: Afghan war (USSR : Afghan war (USSR defeat)defeat)
• 19851985: Mikhail Gorbachev takes : Mikhail Gorbachev takes power in USSRpower in USSR
• 19891989: Berlin Wall falls: Berlin Wall falls
• 19911991: USSR is dissolved: USSR is dissolved
Some significant eventsSome significant events
• 19451945: US uses atomic bombs: US uses atomic bombs
• 19471947: Cold War begins: Cold War begins
• 1948-19491948-1949: Berlin Blockade: Berlin Blockade
• 19491949: USSR gets atomic bomb: USSR gets atomic bomb
• 19611961: Berlin Crisis & Berlin : Berlin Crisis & Berlin WallWall
• 19621962: Cuban missile crisis: Cuban missile crisis
• 1964-19751964-1975: Vietnam war (US : Vietnam war (US defeat)defeat)
• 1980-19881980-1988: Afghan war (USSR : Afghan war (USSR defeat)defeat)
• 19851985: Mikhail Gorbachev takes : Mikhail Gorbachev takes power in USSRpower in USSR
• 19891989: Berlin Wall falls: Berlin Wall falls
• 19911991: USSR is dissolved: USSR is dissolved
18
““Fighting” the Cold War : Fighting” the Cold War :
“proxy wars” & the arms “proxy wars” & the arms racerace Proxy warsProxy wars
The logic of The logic of deterrencedeterrence
A qualitative A qualitative changechange
From balance of From balance of power to balance power to balance of terrorof terror
The need to The need to cooperatecooperate
A close call: A close call: The Cuban missile crisis, The Cuban missile crisis, 19621962
The Cold WarThe Cold War
The stand-offThe stand-off
The resolutionThe resolution
A realization: Mutully assured A realization: Mutully assured destruction (MAD)destruction (MAD)
Weapons control effortsWeapons control efforts
SALT* I & II (1972 & 1979)SALT* I & II (1972 & 1979) START** I & II (1980s & 1991), New START** I & II (1980s & 1991), New
START (2010)START (2010) Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM
Treaty, 1972)Treaty, 1972) The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
(NPT, 1968) (NPT, 1968) the “peaceful use of nuclear power”the “peaceful use of nuclear power” the International Atomic Energy the International Atomic Energy
Agency’s role (Agency’s role (IAEA))
Russian president Dmitry Medvedev and US president Barack Obama after signing the New START on 8 April 2010
* Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty** Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty
Sources of insecuritySources of insecurityin the post-Cold Warin the post-Cold War
22
The proliferation of weapons The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs)of mass destruction (WMDs)
Vertical proliferationVertical proliferation
Horizontal proliferationHorizontal proliferation
Upsetting the distribution of powerUpsetting the distribution of power
23
WMDs todayWMDs today
Nuclear weaponsNuclear weapons 8 declared nuclear 8 declared nuclear
states: US, Russia, UK, states: US, Russia, UK, China, France, India, China, France, India, Pakistan, N. KoreaPakistan, N. Korea
Israel undeclared?Israel undeclared? Reasons for nuclear Reasons for nuclear
weaponsweapons deterrentdeterrent war-fightingwar-fighting last resort last resort prestige of a select prestige of a select
clubclub
Chemical & biologicalChemical & biological The “poor man’s The “poor man’s
nuclear weapon”nuclear weapon” Simpler & cheaperSimpler & cheaper Fear of acquisition by Fear of acquisition by
non-state actorsnon-state actors Aum Shirikyo attack Aum Shirikyo attack
in Tokyo subway ’95in Tokyo subway ’95 US & UK reason for US & UK reason for
invading Iraq 2003invading Iraq 2003 Easy to use on a small Easy to use on a small
scalescale Hard to use on a large Hard to use on a large
scalescale
24
Iran: the issue in a Iran: the issue in a nutshellnutshell
Uses of nuclear technologyUses of nuclear technology nuclear energy & medical usenuclear energy & medical use nuclear weaponsnuclear weapons
The question of uranium enrichment The question of uranium enrichment
““Can we live with a nuclear Iran?”Can we live with a nuclear Iran?”
25
Iran: a longer view of the Iran: a longer view of the issueissue
US & British oil companies in US & British oil companies in Iran Iran
Mohammed Mossadegh’s Mohammed Mossadegh’s election & overthrow (1953) election & overthrow (1953)
Mohammad Reza Pahlavi Mohammad Reza Pahlavi (Shah of Iran(Shah of Iran))
The Cold War & the Middle The Cold War & the Middle EastEast
The Shah & the nuclear The Shah & the nuclear programmeprogramme
The ShahThe Shah
Mohammed MossadeghMohammed Mossadegh
26
Iran: the last 10 yearsIran: the last 10 years
The NPT & Iran’s nuclear programThe NPT & Iran’s nuclear program The Iranian government’s unclear intentions & The Iranian government’s unclear intentions &
the governments of US, UK, France, Germany, the governments of US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, ChinaRussia, China**
George W. Bush: “Rogue” regimes & WMDsGeorge W. Bush: “Rogue” regimes & WMDs Obama’s ambiguous messages:Obama’s ambiguous messages:
will negotiate will negotiate keeps all options open keeps all options open
** Group of countries that are negotiating with Iran Group of countries that are negotiating with Iran
““The United States of The United States of America will not permit the America will not permit the world's most dangerous world's most dangerous regimes to threaten us with regimes to threaten us with the world's most the world's most destructive weapons.” G. destructive weapons.” G. W. Bush, Jan. 29, 2002W. Bush, Jan. 29, 2002
““The United States of The United States of America will not permit the America will not permit the world's most dangerous world's most dangerous regimes to threaten us with regimes to threaten us with the world's most the world's most destructive weapons.” G. destructive weapons.” G. W. Bush, Jan. 29, 2002W. Bush, Jan. 29, 2002
27
Iran: where it is nowIran: where it is now
UN sanctions UN sanctions If negotiations & sanctions failIf negotiations & sanctions fail
US attack?US attack? Israeli attack? Israeli attack? with what consequences?with what consequences?
Will Iran concede?Will Iran concede? Cyberwarfare: the Stuxnet worm Cyberwarfare: the Stuxnet worm
(listen here)(listen here)
28
Latestnews
Latestnews
Defining terrorismDefining terrorism
Not a new phenomenonNot a new phenomenon
Hard to defineHard to define
Politics & languagePolitics & language
State terrorism vs. state-sponsored State terrorism vs. state-sponsored terrorismterrorism
Elements of a Elements of a definitiondefinition
• shock & horror• intimidation,
violence & coercion• political ends• publicity • climate of fear/terror• by non-state actors
or states or states in war
• victims often innocent & unaware of the issues
Elements of a Elements of a definitiondefinition
• shock & horror• intimidation,
violence & coercion• political ends• publicity • climate of fear/terror• by non-state actors
or states or states in war
• victims often innocent & unaware of the issues
29
Terrorism as a threatTerrorism as a threat
Usually a minor threat to Usually a minor threat to states...states...
... but a threat to ... but a threat to individual securityindividual security
The silencing critics:The silencing critics: “You don’t support the “You don’t support the troops!”, “We’re at war!”troops!”, “We’re at war!”
Militarism & the military Militarism & the military as sacred cowas sacred cow
Transformation of Transformation of political & popular political & popular cultureculture
Hermann Göring:Hermann Göring: "Why, of course, the "Why, of course, the people don't want war. Why would people don't want war. Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece. Naturally, the farm in one piece. Naturally, the common people don't want war; common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship." dictatorship."
Gustave Gilbert:Gustave Gilbert: "There is one "There is one difference. In a democracy the people difference. In a democracy the people have some say in the matter through have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can the United States only Congress can declare wars." declare wars."
Hermann Göring: Hermann Göring: "Oh, that is all well "Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.” works the same way in any country.”
Source: Gustave Gilbert, Source: Gustave Gilbert, Nuremberg Nuremberg Diary.Diary.
Hermann Göring:Hermann Göring: "Why, of course, the "Why, of course, the people don't want war. Why would people don't want war. Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece. Naturally, the farm in one piece. Naturally, the common people don't want war; common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship." dictatorship."
Gustave Gilbert:Gustave Gilbert: "There is one "There is one difference. In a democracy the people difference. In a democracy the people have some say in the matter through have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can the United States only Congress can declare wars." declare wars."
Hermann Göring: Hermann Göring: "Oh, that is all well "Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.” works the same way in any country.”
Source: Gustave Gilbert, Source: Gustave Gilbert, Nuremberg Nuremberg Diary.Diary.
30
Responding to terrorismResponding to terrorism
Dealing with the attackersDealing with the attackers military or police operation?military or police operation? the attackers or the state-sponsor?the attackers or the state-sponsor?
The political approachThe political approach Identifying motivationsIdentifying motivations responding to grievancesresponding to grievances being “soft on terror”?being “soft on terror”?
31
Al-Qaeda in the 1980sAl-Qaeda in the 1980s
The origins of Al-Qaeda & Osama bin The origins of Al-Qaeda & Osama bin Laden’s political activismLaden’s political activism
The Cold WarThe Cold War
Soviet invasion of AfghanistanSoviet invasion of Afghanistan
The CIA’s support for al-Qaeda and the The CIA’s support for al-Qaeda and the MujahideenMujahideen
32
Al-Qaeda in the 1990sAl-Qaeda in the 1990s
No more Cold WarNo more Cold War
……but foreign but foreign presence/interference in the presence/interference in the Middle-East by the WestMiddle-East by the West
Al-Qaeda focus shiftsAl-Qaeda focus shifts
A case of “blow back”A case of “blow back”Bin Laden (1957-2011)Bin Laden (1957-2011)
and his visionand his vision
33
Al-Qaeda & the TalibansAl-Qaeda & the Talibans
Al-QaedaAl-Qaeda From outside From outside
AfghanistanAfghanistan Mostly ArabsMostly Arabs PoliticalPolitical-religious -religious
motivationmotivation Hostile to US & EuropeHostile to US & Europe
TalibanTaliban Ideological-religious Ideological-religious
motivationmotivation From one ethnic group in From one ethnic group in
Afghanistan: PashtunsAfghanistan: Pashtuns Not all hostile to US & Not all hostile to US &
EuropeEurope
Afghanistan Afghanistan according to according to the 5 the 5 characteristiccharacteristics of state s of state (last lecture)(last lecture)
The The realityreality
34
The transformation of al-The transformation of al-QaedaQaeda
Disruption after 2001 NATO Disruption after 2001 NATO invasion of Afghanistaninvasion of Afghanistan
From organiza-From organiza-
tion to networktion to network Geographical Geographical
distributiondistribution From hierarchy to ideologyFrom hierarchy to ideology Example of a networkExample of a network
35
ConclusionConclusion
The longest-standing problemThe longest-standing problem
A narrow definition of security (and A narrow definition of security (and peace)peace)
New threats to securityNew threats to security
Non-obvious ways to address themNon-obvious ways to address them
36
