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THE GREAT LIE OF THE NEW
SOCIAL MEDIA METRICS
Jeff Ferguson // CEO, Fang Digital Marketing
AllFacebook Conference East 2012
THE LIKE IS A LIE
BEFORE I BREAK YOUR
HEART EVEN FURTHER…
A REAL QUICK INTRO ON BILL
JAMES AND SABREMETRICS
Runs Created = (Hits + Walks) X Total Bases (At Bats + Walks)
103 103
$1,400,000
$260,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
New York Yankees Oakland A's
Regular Seaon Games Won
Cost per Win
THE ERROR OF CHASING THE
LIKE
“What is an error?
“It is, without exception, the only major statistic in sports which is a record of what an observer
thinks should have been accomplished.
“But the fact of a baseball error is that no play has been made but that the scorer thinks it
should have.
“It is, uniquely, a record of opinions.”
-- Bill James, 1977
“The statistics were not merely inadequate; they lied.
And the lies they told led the people who ran
major league baseball teams to misjudge their players, and mismanage their games.”
-- Michael Lewis, author of Moneyball
“If I’d asked people what they wanted, they would have asked for a better horse.”
-- Henry Ford
Facebook Likes are the Website “hits”
of the 21st century.
3 Signs You’re Chasing a Worthless
Metric
1. It's really easy to game
the system or flat out
buy that metric directly
2. It's near worthless when
you compare similar
numbers
3. It doesn't tie back to your
core metrics
3 Signs You’re Chasing a Worthless
Metric
1. It's really easy to game
the system or flat out
buy that metric directly
2. It's near worthless when
you compare similar
numbers
3. It doesn't tie back to your
core metrics
3 Signs You’re Chasing a Worthless
Metric
1. It's really easy to game
the system or flat out
buy that metric directly
2. It's near worthless when
you compare similar
numbers
3. It doesn't tie back to your
core metrics
3 Signs You’re Chasing a Worthless
Metric
1. It's really easy to game
the system or flat out
buy that metric directly
2. It's near worthless when
you compare similar
numbers
3. It doesn't tie back to your
core metrics
ROI doesn't change with each new media channel that comes
on the scene.
ROI doesn't change with each new media channel that comes
on the scene.
THE REDEMPTION OF THE
LIKE
Runs Created = (Hits + Walks) X Total Bases (At Bats + Walks)
OPS = AB * (H + BB + HBP) + TB * (AB + BB + SF + HBP) AB * (AB + BB + SF + HBP)
Avinash Kaushik - Digital Marketing Evangelist, Google http://bit.ly/UcTLCc
IT’S HARD NOT TO BE
ROMANTIC ABOUT BASEBALL