Jessica Jessop April 1, 2012Natural Disasters Geography 1700 (10) Term Paper

Japan Earthquake and Tsunami 2011

REPORT

On Friday March 11, 2011 at 2:46pm local time, Japan was hit with the largest

earthquake of Japan’s recorded history at a magnitude of 8.9-9.0 CNN reported. The

earthquake was the precursor to the legendary tsunami, which produced 30-foot walls of

water that flooded homes, rice fields, killed thousands, misplaced thousands and washed

away entire cities in some places. Some of the thirty- foot walls produced waves that

reached six miles inland. The areas most hit were on the northeast coast of Japan. The

epicenter of the earthquake was 70 kilometers away from Sendai.

As an Island, Japan vulnerably sits directly on the continuously thrusting

Pacific and North American convergent plates. It is one of the world’s most quake-

prone countries with over 100,000 small earthquakes that occur annually. These plates

move about 8.9 centimeters (3.5 inches) per year. That speed is comparable to the

speed of growth of a fingernail. In contrast, that is more than double the speed of the

San Adreas Fault, which moves at 4 centimeters per year. The size of the rupture

along the boundary between the Pacific and North American Plates is 290 kilometers,

which translates to 180 miles. The length of one side of Honshu is 1300 kilometers or

close to 800 miles. Tension builds between the two plates until the tension is so built

up that it explodes resulting in an earthquake and possibly a tsunami.

Historic SeismicityMagnitude 9.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN Friday, March 11, 2011

Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform

Faults -green

Sendai, Fukushimo, and Miyagi located on the northeastern side of

Honshu were the areas that were hit the hardest. Fukushimo is the city that suffered the

most in structural damage, while Ishinomaki, Miyagi suffered the most casualties with

the total nearing four thousand according to The Telegraph. The Telegraph also reported

that nearly a year later the death toll has climbed up to nineteen thousand for the entire

country.

Although most bodies of the casualties that will be found have been found, it is

most likely that the death toll will continue to rise with the years to come. There are many

Japanese citizens who have not only been directly affected but also indirectly affected by

this natural disaster. Many people died instantly from the earthquake and tsunami, but

many more possibly may die from injury, exposure to radiation from the power plant, and

not to mention mental and emotional damage suffered. The Japan Times reported that a

schoolteacher who survived the tsunami recalled 80 school children that were killed in

the tragedy along with nine out of fifteen teachers who were killed as well. The memory

of this caused the surviving teacher to commit suicide.

Since the earthquake and tsunami, Japan has suffered great loss and economic

strife. Many car manufacturing plants were damaged stopping production, many factories

were destroyed or shut down, the nuclear power plants were damaged leaking radiation

into the environment. Due to the radiation leaks the radiation has contaminated livestock,

agriculture, and water not only effecting local citizens but international trade.

ANALYSIS

Forecasts and predictions

While it remains impossible to predict when an earthquake is going to hit, quake

expert Irwan Meilano has noted that Japan has the best quake observation system in the

world. Japan is equipped with more than 1,000 seismographs and 1,232 global

positioning system (GPS) units to monitor crust deformation. Time magazine also

reports that Japan runs many emergency drills organized by public and private

organizations in order to help prepare the public for an earthquake. Despite these

preparations, miscalculations still happen. The 8.9 earthquake was initially predicted to

be an 8.5 magnitude. Hiroaki Yamanaka, an associate professor at the Tokyo Institute of

Technology, said the extensity of Japan’s quake and tsunami went beyond prediction.

“We must recognize that we do not have a handle on the natural world.” Although the

Japanese were unable to predict that the earthquake was going to happen, officials were

able to warn it’s own citizens of the tsunami to come. Japan's tsunami warning service,

set up in 1952, consists of 300 sensors around the archipelago, including 80 aquatic

sensors that monitor seismic activity 24/7. The network is designed to predict the height,

speed, location and arrival time of any tsunami heading for the Japanese coast. The

Japanese warning system was able to alert its citizens within three minutes of the quake

and the first waves of the tsunami hit land ten to fifteen minutes later. This warning

allowed some citizens to rush to hire ground preserving many lives. Japan also sent out

alerts to 50 other countries to prepare them for possible tsunamis. While the devastation

is horrific, if it had not been for this world class early warning system, the damages

would have been even much more severe.

Risk Analysis:

The textbook, Natural Hazards explains, “the risk of a particular event is defined

as the product of the probability of that event occurring times the consequences should it

occur.” Japan is considered a Ring of Fire nation. Japan experiences earthquakes more

frequently than any other Ring of Fire nation. Japan is situated in a plate boundary zone

where tectonic plates converge and there are frequent major earthquakes in coastal areas

and offshore. The probability of Japan experiencing an earthquake is very high.

When composing a risk analysis it is important to know what the probability is for

an earthquake to occur. Then it is required to know the elements exposed to the hazard.

For example, the people, the infrastructure both commercial and residential, and the

specific land that would be affected are all elements that would be exposed to the hazard.

Then it is important to understand the vulnerability of these elements when they are

exposed to the specific hazard. Is a building going to completely fall apart during the

earthquake or will it just be somewhat damaged? Has the building been made earthquake

resistant or is it an old structure built without that technology and design? It is also

important, when conducting the risk analysis, to know what kind of warning system is in

place to help estimate how many people will be properly warned and hopefully

preserved.

According to the book Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis, Part

611 on page 4: the percent of total area of Japan exposed to two or more hazards at a time

is 38.1% and the percent of Japan’s population exposed and effected is 48.4%. So a third

of the nation’s land is affected and nearly half of the population. As reported above the

rapture is close to 200 miles long, of the 800-mile length of Honshu. So that is actually

only a fourth of the length. So based on this statistical risk analysis, looking back at Japan

before this earthquake hit, this would have lead us to expect a larger land amount to be

affected. It is hard, almost impossible, to determine and calculate how many people have

been affected by this earthquake one way or another. Honshu has one hundred and three

million people so 103 million x 48.4% =49,440,000. This number could be realistic but it

might be way off. To create a risk analysis is an extremely hard task.

As stated earlier, Japan is equipped with more than 1,000 seismographs and 1,232

global positioning system (GPS) units to monitor crust deformation compared to

Indonesia, which has only 160 seismographs, 150 accelerographs, and 125 GPS units.

Both countries have the same potential to encounter massive quakes and Indonesia’s

territory is five times larger. According to Maxx Dilley in the book Natural Disaster

Hotspots, again he provides us with a number of Indonesia’s percentage of total area that

is at risk 4.4%. along with the percentage of the population exposed and effected being

40.1%. The probability of an earthquake happening here is just as high as in Japan. The

effects of this natural disaster if it were to happen would be just as devastating to the

natives of Indonesia as it has been for the native Japanese. However at this moment,

Indonesia does not have a nuclear plant on its soil. It can be argued that the infrastructure

in Indonesia is not as expensive as it is in Japan. So the cost might be less in Indonesia

than in Japan. On the contrary, Indonesia does not have the mitigation plans or the top of

the line earthquake observation equipment as Japan does so the warning system would

not be in place. So the risk analysis for Indonesia most likely would conclude that it

would not be as financial devastating for Indonesia compared to Japan.

Linkages:

The seismic waves that resulted from the shifting of the plates 70 kilometers away

from the shores of Sendai are what caused the strong waves, which produced the

earthquake and then the tsunami that reached the shores of Honshu and lightly hit the

shores of even Hawaii and the west coast of the United States. The seismic waves were of

the magnitude 8.9 or 9.0. These strong waves produced tsunami waves that reached their

peak at thirty feet high and in some places in Japan reached 6 miles inland. Tsunami

warnings were sent out to at least 50 other countries but no tsunamis were recorded.

Heavy storms in Hawaii were reported but nothing equating to a tsunami. Light

earthquakes were the aftermath of the big one, but the little ones did not cause further

damage.

Not only was the land of Japan affected but the entire earth was affected as well. In

result of the earthquake, some parts of Honshu have been reported having moved eight

feet. In other areas of Japan the land actually sank leaving those cities still underwater.

However the entire Earth has been affected. This earthquake shifted the Earth on its axis

by about 17 centimeters.

Images released by NASA show Japan's northeast coast before, left, and after flooding from the quake-induced tsunami.

Disaster –Catastrophe $$$

Human activity did not cause the plates to release waves or cause the ocean to

produce a tsunami. However, because the waves were released and resulted in the

earthquake and tsunami, the effects of both were magnified because of human growth and

development in the land of Honshu. Within the last fifty years many sky rise buildings

have been built, many people now live in the major cities and fifty years ago, Japan did

not have their nuclear power plants. All of these factors helped result in a major

catastrophe in Japan from the 2011 natural disasters. The cooling of the Nuclear power

plant as well as containing it properly has been the biggest concern for Japan. There is a

slow leakage of radiation that is contaminating the surrounding environment. There were

also concerns that contamination could affect other countries. This natural disaster has

been estimated to cost 309 billion dollars. A large part of this expense has been

managing the nuclear power plants from causing more problems and cleaning up the ones

that have already occurred.

The positive side to all of this is that the new buildings that have been built in the

last fifty years were wisely designed under the most strict earthquake proof standards.

However, old structures built fifty years ago were not built with this new technology and

design. These older buildings cannot withstand earthquakes and pose major danger for

the inhabitants and surrounding people of those buildings. The country has gone to great

lengths to improve as many old buildings as possible.

Preparedness/Mitigation

Disaster mitigation expert Khrisna S. Pribadi hailed Japan’s competence in

minimizing the number of victims, resulting from citizens’ possessing sound disaster

awareness. Despite a higher number of victims compared to the Kobe quake in 1995, the

toll was far lower than the Aceh quake and tsunami in 2004.”Tsunami safety has been a

focus of coastal city planning throughout the nation. On Japan's east coast, where

tsunamis frequently hit, hundreds of earthquake and tsunami proof shelters have been

built. Some cities have built tsunami walls and floodgates so that the waves don't travel

inland through river systems. At the beginning of each school year in the spring, it is

customary on that first day to go through all emergency plans that include earthquake and

tsunami responses. The country is aware and highly active in implementing emergency

plans for the entire nation. Japan is seasoned when it comes to surviving disaster.

Natural Service Functions

Earthquakes occur because pressure continues to build until that pressure cannot

be contained and releases in an explosive manner. If a large earthquake, such as this

Japanese earthquake, occurs the large amount of tension is released decreasing the

probability of another major earthquake occurring in the near future. It is preferred to

have multiple little earthquakes to lesson the chance of a large earthquake, but that cannot

be manipulated. There are no other real natural benefits to earthquakes.

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