Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology JPL’s California Water Mission A Strawman Consideration for a Virtual Flight Project

Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of Technology

JPL’sCalifornia Water Mission

A Strawman Consideration for a Virtual Flight Project

Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of Technology Supposition

Progress on advancing the state of hydrological and land surface models has not kept pace with the need to address critical issues of changing water supply under the pressures of global change and population growing growth.

An accelerated effort is required to support research, applications and decision support.

We suggest here that the scope of the problem is commensurate with a flight project and also, that a successful effort will only come when we apply the methodologies and rigor of a JPL flight project.

Moreover, the bulk of the work is in applied sciences and engineering, and the work paradigm should be consistent with efforts in those disciplines.

Enclosed is a notional “project” strategy for a California Water “Mission”


• Motivation (3 slides)• Supposition & Recommendation (1 slide)• Mission Goals (1 slide)• Mission Objectives (1 slide)• Applications Traceability Matrix (1 slides)• Project Organization (2 slides)• Project Timeline (1 slides)• Project Support (1 slide)• Additional Considerations (1 slide)

Outline


External Organizations/Elements Relevant to WaterCA Dept of Water Resources, Metropolitan Water District, Local water

districtsBureau of Reclamation, USGSWestern Governors Association, CDFA, OPR, California agriculture

NASA Applied Sciences, Hydrology, MAP programsNOAA and Operational Weather/Climate Prediction CentersCalifornia and western U. S. universities

• Multi-Faceted Stakeholder Needs – Water supply forecasting, reservoir operations, groundwater monitoring, flood/hazard, consumptive use, allocation decisions, etc

• Quantify and Monitor Water Reserves/Fluxes - Snowpack, Surface Water, Soil Moisture, Groundwater, Evapotranspiration

• Long-lead Forecasting Information

• Integrated Hydrologic Data Assimilation & Modeling

The science, applied science and decision support demands associated with the CA/regional water problem and its solutions are extraordinary.

Science

Stakeholders

Multi-Mission

Modeling

Data Assimilation

Big Data

Motivation for a Virtual Flight Project


Internal JPL Organization Elements Relevant to Water830 – Formulation870 – AirborneDiv32/Sec329, Div33, Div39, etcGCE Climate CenterNASA’s “Center” for Snow & Water AvailabilityNSTA – civil, commercial, defense

Missions Relevant to CA Water cycle• OPERATING

AIRS, CloudSat, GPS/COSMICGRACE, ground-based GPS, InSAR, (SMAP)Airborne e.g. ASO, airSWOT, airMOSS, UAVSAR

• DEVELOPING MISSIONS (2014-2020)GPS/COSMIC-2ECOSTRESS, GRACE-FO, SWOT, NISAR

The science and programmatic landscape at JPL for addressing water is complex, multi-faceted and has lacked focus & organization.



Water is the most intrinsic and pressing problem facing California

Are we employing JPL’s absolute best efforts and capabilities to the problem?



In order to make significant progress towards advancing the state of hydrological and land surface models for water science and applications, we must recognize that the scope of the problem is commensurate with a flight project and that success will only come when we apply the methodologies and rigor of a JPL flight project*.

*This includes project management, specific goals & requirements definition, timeline, reviews, ATM, (applied) science team, product specifications, and start-to-finish stakeholder engagement.

Supposition/Recommendation


Primary Goal• Harnessing the power of JPL water science and engineering to

develop state-of-the-art models, data products and data management to support advanced research and sustainable water management for California and the west.

Secondary Goals• Demonstrate that we can provide an integrated end-to-end, stakeholder-valued

solution for societal benefits in water, as done for Natural Hazards/ARIA.• Advance the laboratory’s capabilities for using multi-mission support and flight

project-level formalism for addressing complex, grand challenge problems.• Advance our position for obtaining/leveraging non-NASA support for decision

making and increase our attunement to future water mission needs.• Advance hydrologic process model components and satellite data assimilation

methodologies and export to GMAO/NASA, NCAR and the broader community.• Deeper collaborations with NASA/GSFC

California Water Mission Goals


I. Produce a robust state estimation of California’s freshwater resources.

II. Provide subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts (e.g. 1 week to 2 months) of California’s freshwater resources.

Both I & II would includea) snow water equivalent, surface water, soil moisture, groundwater,

evaporative demand, flood potential and drought statusb) Assimilation or readiness for key water (GRACE, GRACE-FO, SMAP,

SWOT) and related missions (e.g. NISAR, GPS, ECOSTRESS)c) spatial coverage over entire stated) daily updatese) spatial resolutions of 10’s kms or lessf) quantitative uncertainties.

California Water Mission Goals


Application Question

Application Concept

Application Measurement (or

Model) Requirements

Applied Sciences Category

Potential Host

Agency

Mission Data

Product

Projected Mission

Performance

Application

Readiness Level

Ancillary Measurements

What is the current state

of CA freshwater resources?

Provide state estimates, with quantitative

uncertainties, of CA natural freshwater

resources, namely snow, surface, soil, and ground

water, along with evaporative demand,

drought status and flood potential.

• Measurements of snow, soil moisture, precipitation, surface temperature, surface elevation of land and water, groundwater – with Dt of 1 day to < 1 month, and Dx of 100’s km or less.

Water Management

Agriculture

Energy

Disaster Mitigation

NASA& other agencies

responsible for in-situ

networks

Current estimates of

SWE, soil moisture,

surface water, ground water,

with quantitative

uncertainties.

Spatial Extent: California

Spatial Resolution: 10’s

km or less

Temporal Updates: Daily

5-9

NASAAvailable

MODIS, GRACE, GPM, GPSTBS

SMAP, ECOSTRESS, NISAR, SWOT, GRACE-FO

DWRSnow pillows, river

gauges, soil moisture, reservoir levels, well data4-5

• Data assimilation system capable of providing a hydrologic state estimate and initial conditions for a hydrologic forecast model

CA Department of

Water Resources

How will CA’s freshwater resources

change in the coming weeks and seasons?

Provide subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts,

with quantitative uncertainties, of CA’s

freshwater resources – as itemized above.

• Hydrologic forecast model capable of evolving surface, soil and groundwater forward out to 6 months.

Water Management

Agriculture

Energy

Disaster Mitigation

CA Department of

Water Resources

Forecasts of SWE, soil moisture,

surface water, ground water, precipitation, evapotranspir

ation, and runoff, with quantitative

uncertainties.

Spatial Extent: California

Spatial Resolution: 10’s

km or less

Temporal Updates: Daily

4-5Atmospheric Forecasts:

Development phase: WCRP/WWRP S2S Project

Forecast database(9 Centers’ operational

S2S ensemble forecasts, delayed 3 weeks)

Operational NCEP’s operational

ensemble and/or others available in realtime.

• Operational atmospheric/S2S forecasts of precipitation, temperature, wind, etc out to 6 months with diurnal resolution.

NOAA and/or the

consortium of operational

S2S agencies

7-9

This is NASA ASP’s format for Traceability.

Application Traceability Matrix


Applied* Science Team - Div 32

(see next)

Deputy Program Managers for Applications

(DPAs; see next)

Project Manager – Basillo Project Scientist – Famiglietti Business Manger – Daleo

Standing Review Board

(see next)

• Capture Input Data Streams• “Algorithm” Maintenance• Model Hosting & Execution• Product Generation• Product Archive• Product Dissemination

Data SystemsDiv 39

* This is not a research project

Project System Engineer - Duren

Example/Notional Names

• Early Adopters• Stakeholder Engagement• Operational Uptake

Project Organization (1/2)


Applied* Science Team Hydrology Model- FamigliettiData Assimilation – KonstantinosSnow/ASO – PainterSnow/Groundwater/GPS – ArgusGroundwater/GRACE – Reager, LandererGroundwater/InSAR – Farr, LiuSurface Water – Konstantinos, DavidEvapotranspiration – FisherPrecipitation - BehrangiSoil Moisture – DasHydrologic Extremes - ReagerS2S Forecasts – Waliser, Guan

Standing Review Board (TBD) All TBD– MWD, SWRCB, OPRUSGS, NOAA, BoRD. Lettenmaier – UCLAD. Cayan - UCSDR. Juricich – DWRSystems Expert – JPLMission Assurance – JPL

Deputy Program Managers for Applications(No more than 2)GrangerSrinivasanDasCastano

* This is not a research project

Example/Notional NamesProject Organization (2/2)


FY’15 FY’16 FY’17

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Strategic R&TD

Consensus on ProposedMission

Objectives, ATM, Products,Organization &

Timeline

KDP-A KDP-B

Mission Concept Details• Model, data assimilation and

forecasting implementation strategy

• Data systems scoping• Stakeholder & NASA water

“Center” planning

Pre-Phase A Phase A Phase B Phase C Phase D Phase E*

Component Development• Obs and forecast data streams• Data assimilation system • Hydrology model• Run-time environment• Product archive/dissemination• Early Adopter Activities

KDP-C KDP-D

Component Test• State estimation• Hydrologic hindcast• Exercise data system• Early adopter activities

System Integration & Test• Near real-time water state

estimation• Near real-time water

forecasts• Product generation• Delayed product

availability• Early adopter testing

KDP-E

Operational Capability*• State estimation• Hydrologic forecasts• Dissemination• Stakeholder use

*status after FY’17 depends on NASA & stakeholder interest/funding

NotionalTimelines and Milestones


Applied Science TeamCurrent Water R&TDGCE Decision Support

Leverage Direct

Deputy Program Managers for Applications

ASP Water “Center”

Project Manager – 0.2 - ?Project Scientist – 0.2 – Water R&TDBusiness Manger - 0.05 - ?

Standing Review BoardGCE Decision

Support

Data SystemsCurrent Big Data R&TD

Leverage Direct

Project System Engineer – 0.15 - ?

How to appropriately leverage sources of support?

Funding sources and gapsProject Support


• Leverages Famiglietti’s UC Center for Hydrologic Modeling, JPL’s Snow & Water “Center”, R&TD Water Initiative, ASO, RHEAS, subsidence & GPS work, our visible profile and momentum on CA, JPL centroid of water missions, S2S connections, etc.

• By focusing on CA, we avoid a direct/perceived conflict with GMAO and GLDAS, while complementing those efforts via model and data assimilation developments that can be exported to GMAO/GLDAS and broader community; all while enhancing relationships with GSFC

• Relationship with Snow & Water “Center”: 1) This CA Water Mission is either an uber example of a product/stakeholder development pair, and/or 2) the “Center” is simply perceived as the stakeholder development arm of the Mission.

• Provides the critical missing framework and foundation for JPL to optimally exploit our/NASA’s multiple water missions – and thus advance our interests in developing multi-mission, project-level architectures to complex, grand challenge (applied) science problems.

Synergies and Other Considerations

Documents

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology JPL’s California Water Mission A Strawman Consideration for a Virtual Flight Project