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November9th,2017
JimMintertProfessor&Director
DavidWidmarSeniorResearchAssociate
November9th,2017
November9th,2017
November9th,2017
13
67
61
69
41
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17
%ofR
espo
nden
tsWouldyousaythatyourfarmoperationtodayisfinanciallybetteroff,worseoff,oraboutthesame
comparedtoayearago?Better Worse
ProducerSurveyMostRecentObservation:Oct.2017
November9th,2017
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
10/15 1/16 4/16 7/16 10/16 1/17 4/17 7/17 10/17
%ofrespo
nden
tsShareofRespondentsExpectingHIGHERCommodity
Pricesin12MonthsCorn Soybeans Wheat
MostRecentObservation:Oct.2017
GrainPriceExpectations:LessOptimism…
November9th,2017
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
10/15 1/16 4/16 7/16 10/16 1/17 4/17 7/17 10/17
%ofrespo
nden
tsShareofRespondentsExpectingLOWERCommodity
Pricesin12MonthsCorn Soybeans Wheat
ProducerSurveyMostRecentObservation:Oct.2017
GrainPriceExpectations:…ButAlsoLessPessimism
November9th,2017
November9th,2017
17 1721 21 23 22
27
11
52 54 54 52 52 52 49
58
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan.'16 April'16 July'16 Oct.'16 Jan.'17 April'17 July'17 Oct.'17
%ofrespo
nden
tsRatingofUsedFarmMachineryPrices
Low High
ProducerSurvey
Note: Rating1to4="Low";5="Neutral",notshown;6-9="High"MostRecentObservation:Oct. 2017
November9th,2017
46%
19%
35% 33%
18%
36%
0% 5%
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
LowerFertilizerRates LowerSeedingRates AdjustSeedHybrid/VarietyTraitPackage
%ofrespo
nden
tsCropManagementChangesPlannedinResponsetoFarm
EconomicConditions
Yes,2017 Yes,2018
ProducerSurveyMostRecentObservation:Oct.2017
November9th,2017
10%
80%
10%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Lower
AbouttheSame
Higher
%ofrespondents
Doyouthinkyourfarm’sfarmlandrentalexpensewillbehigher,lower,oraboutthesamein2018?
ProducerSurvey
November9th,2017
12%
48%
39%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Lower
AbouttheSame
Higher
%ofrespondents
Wereyourfarm’sproductioncostsin2017higher,lower,oraboutthesameaslastyear(2016)?
ProducerSurvey
November9th,2017
7%
62%
31%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Lower
AbouttheSame
Higher
%ofrespondents
Doyouexpectyourfarm’sproductioncostsin2018willbelower,higher,oraboutthesameas2017?
ProducerSurvey
November9th,2017
WrappingUp
• ProducersentimentstrengthenedmodestlyinOctober• Improvingexpectationsaboutthefuturedrovetheincreaseinsentiment• Lesspessimismamongproducersregardingcropprices,especiallyforwheat,soybeansandcotton• MoreproducersreportedontheOctobersurveythatusedfarmmachinerypriceswerehigh.• 80%ofproducersexpectfarmlandrentalratesin2018toremainunchangedfrom2017• 62%ofproducersexpectallfarmexpensesin2018toremainunchangedfrom2017
November9th,2017
Upcoming:
Business Climate - 2018 Outlook Webinar
Jan. 5th
Purdue.edu/commercialag
Purdue.edu/agbarometer
November9th,2017
Upcoming:
Top Farmer Conference
Jan. 9th
Purdue.edu/commercialag
Purdue.edu/agbarometer
