18
1 Third Quarter Earnings Release October 20, 2011 Jim Young, Chairman & CEO 2 2009 2010 2011 $1.01 $1.56 $1.85 Best-Ever Quarterly Record Third Quarter Results Positives Best-Ever Quarter Revenue Operating Income Earnings Record YTD Free Cash Flow Franchise Diversity Challenges Texas Drought International Intermodal +19% Earnings Per Share

Jim Young, Chairman & CEO...1 1 Third Quarter Earnings Release October 20, 2011 Jim Young, Chairman & CEO 2 2009 2010 2011 $1.01 $1.56 $1.85 Best-Ever Quarterly Record Third Quarter

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    4

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

  • 1

    1

    Third Quarter Earnings Release October 20, 2011

    Jim Young, Chairman & CEO

    2

    2009 2010 2011

    $1.01

    $1.56

    $1.85

    Best-Ever

    Quarterly

    Record

    Third Quarter Results

    Positives

    • Best-Ever Quarter – Revenue

    – Operating Income

    – Earnings

    • Record YTD Free Cash

    Flow

    • Franchise Diversity

    Challenges

    • Texas Drought

    • International Intermodal

    +19%

    Earnings Per Share

  • 2

    3

    Third Quarter Marketing & Sales Review October 20, 2011

    Jack Koraleski, Executive VP – Marketing & Sales

    4

    Customer Satisfaction

    1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q

    87

    89 90 90

    91 92

    91 GOOD

    Overall Satisfaction

    2011 2010

  • 3

    5

    Third Quarter Recap

    Volume ARC Freight Revenue

    Performance Improvement (Year-Over-Year Change)

    Volume Growth

    +1%

    +14% +16%

    Revenue Mix

    Agricultural

    17%

    Autos

    8% Chemicals

    15%

    Energy

    23%

    Industrial

    18%

    Intermodal

    19%

    Intermodal

    TOTAL

    +5%

    +8%

    -3%

    -6%

    +7%

    +1%

    +10%

    Energy

    Chemicals

    Industrial Products

    Automotive

    Agricultural

    6

    Agricultural Products Revenue $814M (+9%) Volume 223K (-3%) ARC $3,655 (+12%)

    Grain Products

    38%

    Whole Grains 33%

    Food/ Refrigerated

    29%

    Revenue Mix

    *Volume in thousands of carloads

    Quarterly Drivers

    • Whole Grain Exports Weaken

    • Growth in Grain Products

    41.2

    28.5

    Export Whole Grains*

    2010 2011

    -31%

    75.0 78.6

    Grain Products*

    2010 2011

    +5%

  • 4

    7

    Automotive Revenue $379M (+23%) Volume 160K (+10%) ARC $2,364 (+12%)

    Finished Vehicles

    77%

    Revenue Mix

    88.0 92.2

    Finished Vehicles*

    2010 2011

    +5%

    57.8

    68.1

    Auto Parts*

    2010 2011

    +18%

    *Volume in thousands of carloads

    Quarterly Drivers

    • U.S. Auto Sales Up 6%

    • Continued Recovery from Disaster in Japan

    Auto Parts 23%

    8

    Chemicals Revenue $720M (+14%) Volume 233K (+5%) ARC $3,087 (+8%)

    Plastics 19%

    Industrial Chemicals

    25%

    Petroleum & Other

    28%

    Revenue Mix

    *Volume in thousands of carloads

    Fertilizer 14% Soda Ash

    14%

    Quarterly Drivers

    • Continued Growth in Crude Oil

    • Stability Across Most Major Market Segments

    23.6

    31.8

    Petroleum Products*

    2010 2011

    +35%

    28.9 27.5

    Fertilizer*

    2010 2011

    -5%

  • 5

    9

    Energy Revenue $1,112M (+21%) Volume 572K (+7%) ARC $1,945 (+13%)

    Southern Powder River Basin

    75%

    Other 7%

    Colorado/ Utah 18%

    Revenue Mix

    48.9 51.5

    Southern Powder River Basin*

    2010 2011

    +5%

    *Tons in millions

    7.5

    8.2

    Colorado/Utah*

    2010 2011

    +9%

    Quarterly Drivers

    • New Business Drives SPRB Growth

    • Improved Production and Export Demand Produces CO/UT Gains

    10

    Industrial Products Revenue $863M (+24%) Volume 305K (+8%) ARC $2,832 (+15%)

    Paper 13%

    Government/ Waste 8%

    Metals 27%

    Revenue Mix

    Minerals/ Consumer

    25%

    Construction 14%

    Lumber 13%

    *Volume in thousands of carloads

    32.9

    45.9

    Non-Metallic Minerals*

    2010 2011

    +39%

    5.7

    11.4

    Metallic Minerals*

    2010 2011

    +99%

    Quarterly Drivers

    • Ramp-up of Iron Ore Exports to China

    • Drilling Demand Drives Non-Metallic Minerals and Steel

    32.9 37.1

    Steel* +13%

    2010 2011

  • 6

    11

    Intermodal Revenue $948M (+8%) Volume 848K (-6%) ARC $1,119 (+15%)

    International 47%

    Domestic 53%

    Revenue Mix

    529.9

    465.2

    International*

    2010 2011

    -12%

    374.6 382.3

    Domestic*

    2010 2011

    +2%

    *Volume in thousands of units

    Quarterly Drivers

    • Weak Imports and 2Q Contract Loss Impact International

    • Domestic Volume Strengthens as Quarter Progresses

    12

    Fourth Quarter Volume Drivers

    • Challenges

    – World Grain Supply Softens

    U.S. Export Demand

    – Weak Container Imports

    • Opportunities

    – Continued Momentum in

    Automotive

    – Energy-related Demand

    – Strengthening Domestic

    Intermodal

    – Diverse Franchise

    – Strong Value Proposition

  • 7

    13

    Third Quarter Operations Review October 20, 2011

    Lance Fritz, Executive VP – Operations

    14

    2009 2010 2011

    3.13 3.15 3.38

    Operating Foundation, Safety Focus 3rd Quarter YTD

    Rail Equipment (Reportable Derailment Incidents

    Per Million Train Miles)

    Public (Crossing Accidents Per

    Million Train Miles)

    2009 2010 2011

    2.08 2.18

    2.04

    Good Good

    2009 2010 2011

    1.49

    1.36

    1.15

    Employee (Reportable Personal Injury

    Incidents Per 200,000 Man-Hours)

    -15%

    Good

    7% -6%

  • 8

    15

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

    2011 Slow Order Miles

    Weather Challenges

    • Recovery from Midwest

    Flooding

    • Severe Drought and

    Heat in Texas

    – Speed Restrictions

    – Maintenance Curfews

    – Returning to Normal

    Operations

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    Historical Slow Order Miles (Annual Average)

    Good

    MTD

    YTD

    16

    23.5

    27.3 26.2 26.1

    24.7 24.3 24.8

    86 89 93 94 94 94 94

    Network Performance

    7-Day Volumes

    180

    152

    172 173 176

    182 184

    2008 2009 2010 1H

    2011

    Jul

    2011

    Aug

    2011

    Sep

    2011

    Industry Spot and Pull* & Velocity

    2008 2009 2010 1H

    2011

    Jul

    2011

    Aug

    2011

    Sep

    2011

    Good

    • Strong Service

    Levels as Volumes

    Increase

    • Surge Resources

    and Network

    Resiliency

    • Service Supports

    Efficiency

    Velocity**

    *Percent Within Window ** As Reported to the AAR

  • 9

    17

    Operational Efficiency 3rd Quarter

    • Maintained Productivity

    Emphasis

    – Workforce Flexibility

    – Train Size

    • Leverage Existing

    Resources

    2008 2009 2010 2011

    5.43 5.06

    5.52 5.51

    GTMs per Employee (In Millions)

    TE&Y Furloughs (Quarterly Average)

    2008 2009 2010 2011

    775

    4,507

    1,653

    487

    2008 2009 2010 2011

    83 85 86

    88 158 158

    170 172 Good

    Train Size (Average Units per Train)

    Intermodal

    Boxes

    Manifest

    Cars

    18

    Operating Outlook

    • World Class Safety

    Results

    • Complete Service

    Recovery

    • Leveraging Network

    Productivity

    • Positioned for

    Growth

  • 10

    19

    Third Quarter Financial Review October 20, 2011

    Rob Knight, CFO

    20

    Third Quarter Earnings Summary In Millions (except EPS)

    Operating Revenues $5,101 $4,408 16

    Operating Expenses 3,523 3,007 17

    Operating Income 1,578 1,401 13

    Other Income 17 25 (32)

    Interest Expense (142) (153) (7)

    Income Taxes (549) (495) 11

    Net Income $904 $778 16

    Weighted Average Diluted Shares 488.1 497.7 (2)

    Diluted EPS $1.85 $1.56 19

    2011 2010 %

  • 11

    21

    Freight Revenue Third Quarter (In Millions)

    2010

    Volume

    & Mix

    Core

    Price

    Fuel

    Surcharge

    2011

    + 4.5%

    + 4.5%

    + 7.0% $4,836

    $4,187

    + 16%

    22

    1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11

    58% 60% 60%

    48% 45%

    36%

    41%

    13%

    18%

    14%

    9%

    5%

    3%

    1%

    1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11

    3.5%

    5.0%

    5.5% 5.5%

    4.5% 4.5% 4.5%

    Pricing Gains & Leverage

    Core Pricing Incremental Margins*

    * 2011 adjusted for fuel price & one-time items. See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP.

    Year-over-year volume growth

  • 12

    23

    Operating Expense Recap Third Quarter 2011 vs. 2010 ($ Increase in Millions)

    $308

    $101

    $41 $36 $29

    $1

    Fuel

    • $516 Million Increase

    • Drivers:

    – Fuel Price

    – Inflation/Depreciation

    – Volume/Productivity

    – Weather Challenges

    – Training

    Equip &

    Rents

    Comp &

    Benefits

    Other Depr Prch Srvs

    & Materials

    24

    Fuel Expense Third Quarter 2011 $916M, +51%

    • Higher Diesel Fuel Prices

    Added $260 Million to

    Costs

    • Conversion Spreads

    Tripled Versus 2010

    • Year-Over-Year Negative Fuel Price Impact of 1.7 Points

    • GTMs Increased 5%

    $2.24

    Average Fuel Price (Per Gallon Consumed)

    2010 2011

    $3.18 +42%

    261 277

    2010

    Fuel Consumption (Million Gallons)

    2011

    Barrel Price Conversion Spreads

    +6%

  • 13

    25

    Compensation & Benefits Third Quarter

    2010

    Inflation Volume (Net of

    Productivity)

    Training

    2011

    + 5.5% + 1.5%

    + 0.5% $1,193

    $1,092

    + 9%

    Drought-

    Related

    Resources

    + 1.5%

    26

    Workforce Levels Third Quarter

    2010

    Base

    Workforce

    (Including Weather Impact)

    Training Capital

    Projects

    2011

    + 2.5% + 1.5%

    + 1.0% 45,507

    43,375

    + 5%

  • 14

    27

    $465 $506

    Third Quarter 2011 Expense Review In Millions

    • Higher Property Taxes

    • Increased Costs for Damaged

    Freight and Equipment

    2010

    Purchased Services & Materials

    2011

    • Increased Contract Services

    • Locomotive & Freight Car

    Materials Usage

    • Crew Lodging & Transportation

    Costs

    $178 $207

    2010

    Other

    2011

    +16%

    +9%

    28

    $372 $408

    Third Quarter 2011 Expense Review (cont) In Millions

    • Ongoing Capital Spending

    • Volume Driven - Higher

    Expense

    • Higher Container Lease

    and Short-Term Car

    Rental Expenses

    • Lower Locomotive Lease

    Expense

    2010

    Depreciation

    2011

    $292 $293

    2010

    Equipment & Other Rents

    2011

    +10%

    Flat

  • 15

    29

    Operating Ratio Performance Third Quarter

    2008 2009 2010 2011

    74.9 73.8

    68.2 69.1

    Operating Ratio (Pct) Third Quarter

    • Solid Pricing

    • Modest Volume Growth & Leverage

    • Year-Over-Year Negative Fuel Price Impact of 1.7 Points

    Full Year

    • Improvement Excluding

    Fuel Price Impact

    Fuel Price Impact

    30

    Solid Financial Position Nine-Month Period Ending September 30 ($ In Millions)

    • Record Cash from Operations and Free Cash Flow

    • 39% Cash Dividend Increase YTD

    • Targeted Dividend Payout Ratio of 30%

    • Maintain Solid Investment Grade Rating

    $1,009

    $1,486 $438

    $607

    Free Cash Flow*

    Total Debt* (Adjusted)

    42.5% 41.4%

    * See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP.

    Adjusted Debt to Capital

    $1,447

    $2,093 Before Dividends

    After Dividends

    9/30/2010 9/30/2011

    YE 2010 9/30/2011

    Dividends

    $13,139 $13,095

  • 16

    31

    Delivering Value to Shareholders

    2007 2008 2009 2010 1Q 2Q 3Q

    $1.46

    $2.98 $2.98

    $4.23 $4.48

    $4.84

    $5.27

    Cumulative Share Repurchases ($ In Billions)

    2011 Activity

    • Opportunistic Share Repurchases

    – 3Q 2011 = $428 Million

    – YTD 2011 = $1.04 Billion

    • 31.7 Million Shares Remaining in Current Authorization

    2011

    32

    2011 Outlook

    Continued

    Volume

    Growth

    “Real”

    Pricing

    Gains

    Ongoing

    Productivity

    Focus

    Record

    Earnings

    Improved

    Shareholder

    Returns

  • 17

    33

    Third Quarter Earnings Release October 20, 2011

    Jim Young, Chairman & CEO

    34

    Union Pacific’s Prospects Remain Positive

    • Continued Economic Uncertainties

    • UP’s Prospects Remain Positive

    • Confidence in Fundamental Strategy

    – Enhance UP Franchise

    – Provide Increased Value to Customers

    – Improve Financial Returns to Shareholders

  • 18

    35

    Cautionary Information

    This press release and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation’s expectations with respect to its ability to generate returns for shareholders; current and future economic conditions; and its ability to enhance its franchise, provide value to its customers, and improve financial returns. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts.

    Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2010, which was filed with the SEC on February 4, 2011. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC).

    Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.

    36

    Third Quarter Earnings Release October 20, 2011

    Question & Answer Session