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NMME Progress and Plans
Jin HuangNCEP Climate Test Bed (CTB)
February 12, 2014
AcknowledgementCTB/SAB, NOAA/CPO, NCEP, NMME Team, and other US contributing agencies (NSF,DOE, and NASA) and Canada.
What is NMME?
NMME Phase-I: An experimental system initiated as a Climate Test Bed (CTB) research project supported by NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) in FY11.
NMME Phase-II: An improved experimental system as a FY12-FY13 MAPP/CTB research project with additional support from NSF, DOE and NASA.
NMME Expansion Project in High Impact Weather Prediction Pilot (HIWPP) Project from Sandy Supplemental Fund
All participating models strictly follow the same protocol and re-run hindcasts after each model upgrade
North‐American
3
Phrase-I NMME Forecast ProvidersModel Hindcast
PeriodNo. of
MemberArrangement of
MembersLead
(months)
Model Resolution:Atmosphere
Model Resolution:
OceanReference
NCEP-CFSv2 1982-2010 24(20)4 members (0,6,12,18Z)every 5th day
0-9 T126L64 MOM4 L40 0.25 deg Eq
Saha et al. (2010)
GFDL-CM2.1 1982-2010 10 All 1st of the month 0Z 0-11 2x2.5deg L24 MOM4 L50
0.30 deg EqDelworth et al. (2006)
CMC1-CanCM3 1981-2010 10 All 1st of the month
0Z 0-11 CanAM3 T63L31
CanOM4 L40 0.94 deg Eq
Merryfieldet al. (2012)
CMC2-CanCM4 1981-2010 10 All 1st of the month
0Z 0-11 CanAM4 T63L35
CanOM4 L40 0.94 deg Eq
Merryfieldet al. (2012)
NCAR-CCSM3.0 1982-2010 6 All 1st of the month 0-11 T85L26 POP L40 0.3
deg EqKirtman and Min (2009)
NASA-GEOS5 1981-2010 11
4 members every 5th days; 7 members on the last day of the previous month
0-9 1x1.25deg L72 MOM4 L40 1/4 deg at Eq
Rienecker et al. (2008)
Upcoming new/upgraded models:•NCAR-CCSM4: May 2014•GFDL-FLOR: March 2014•NCAR-CESM1: April 2014
Current NMME Forecast Providers
www.nws.noaa.gov
Home Site Map News Organization Search Go
HOME > NMME Forecasts of Monthly Climate Anomalies
Welcome to the National Multi-Model Ensemble home!
Data and Current Forecasts
3-month mean spatial anomalies1-month mean spatial anomalies
Niño3.4 PlumesInternational MME
Experimental: Probability forecasts
NMME Realtime Forecasts ArchiveNMME Phase-I Hindcast Data
About the NMME
Description of the NMMEPhase-I Forecast Models
CTB Activities & DocumentsJoin the NMME mailing list
NMME real‐time seasonal forecast since August 2011 following CPC operational schedule
Monthly telecons to discuss research and operational topics
NMME Data Available to Users
1. Realtime forecasts from CPC website• http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/
2. Phase‐I Reforecast data in IRI website available now• Monthly Mean of 30 year reforecast• 8 variables (P, T, SST, Z200, Tmax, Tmin Soil Moisture, Runoff )• http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/
3. Phase‐II Reforecast data in NCAR • Complete monthly Mean of 30 year reforecast• Comprehensive daily reforecast data of selected (189 ) variables• https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/search.html?Project=NMME
July 1 startDJF SST forecastRanked Probability Skill Score based on 30-year NMME hindcast data
(B. Kirtman et al.)
NMME
CFSv2
Comparison of CFSv2 skill vs NMME
Testing the hypothesis that single-model skill equals multi-model skill of NINO3.4 hindcasts
Skills of NINO3.4 hindcasts come more from more models than more members (T. Delsole)
9CFSv1(1)+IRIa(1)+IRId(1)+CM2.1(1)+GEOS5(1)+CFSv1(1) vs. CCSM3(6)
All Others (24 Member Ensemble) vs. CCSM3 NMME BenefitsCCSM3 Ensemble
CCSM3 BenefitsNMME
Complementary Correlations
RT verification: CONUSYear 1 Year 2
T2m
Prate
NMME Forecast Skill VerificationReal-time forecast since Aug. 2011
RT verification: CONUSNMME Real-time Forecast Verification
NMME precipitation forecast for Jan. 2014 is goodTforecast is not so good (Emily Becker)
SPI Forecastsbased on NMME
201401
12
SPI3
Feb 2014
Jan 2014 SPI6 Jan2014
Feb 2014
NMME Drought Forecast Products
CCSM3
CCSM4
Status and Impacts of Model Upgrades
Hindcast Evolution of NINO3.4 in CCSM3 and CCSM4 based on 30‐year (1981‐2010) hindcasts
GFDL FLOR for CPC operation in May,2014)
NCAR/CCSM4(scheduled for CPC
operation in May 2014)
Testing NMME Sub-seasonal Forecast Protocol
Experimental Protocol•45-day Reforecasts 1999-2012,•November-only•Initializations (every 5 days) on 2nd, 7th, 12th, 17th, 22th, 27th
•At least 3 ensemble members (perturbations decided by individual modeling groups)•Limited set of variables: SST, U200, U850, OLR, Precip, MSLP, Z200
Participating Modelsa)NCEP-CFSv2b)NASA-GMAOc)RSMAS/NCAR-CCSM4d)NCEP-EMC GEFSe)Canada?
Goal:•To demonstrate the potential benefit of a subseasonal NMME in a retrospective context •To provide a framework for a future real-time subseasonal NMME
(After Kathy Pegion)
NMME Near‐Term Plans
• Sustain and improve the experimental NMME seasonal forecast system• Documents on “Operationalize NMME” and “Vision and 5-Year Plan
for NMME” are developed• New/upgraded models; optimizing the system; application products
•Community efforts to analyze the NMME Phase-II data • A CMIP type data for ISI time scales (available in July 2014)
•Develop NMME sub-seasonal forecast capability• Linkage/contribution to S2S project
•A community-wide NMME workshop (possibly 2015) for planning NMME Phase-III
OperationsOperationsResearchResearch
• Improved operational prediction capabilities by leveraging model development and expertise from the research community
• Openly distributed hindcast and real‐time data following strict protocol
• Operational setting foro model diagnosis and evaluations o climate predictability and prediction research
R2O
O2R
NMME Benefits and integrates Research and Operations
AONCEP Co-PI
LOIProposal
R2O
O2R
Improved products and
services
Research OperationsClimate Forecast
ProductsMME
CFS Improvements
• Reanalysis / Reforecasts
• Earth System Modeling
• Tropical oscillations
• Model physics
• Etc.
Res
earc
h To
pics
AONCEP Co-PI
LOIProposal
R2O
O2R
Improved products and
services
Research OperationsClimate Forecast
ProductsMME
CFS Improvements
• Reanalysis / Reforecasts
• Earth System Modeling
• Tropical oscillations
• Model physics
• Etc.
Res
earc
h To
pics
AONCEP Co-PI
LOIProposal
R2O
O2R
Improved products and
services
Research OperationsClimate Forecast
ProductsMME
CFS Improvements
• Reanalysis / Reforecasts
• Earth System Modeling
• Tropical oscillations
• Model physics
• Etc.
Res
earc
h To
pics
AONCEP Co-PI
LOIProposal
R2O
O2R
Improved products and
services
Research OperationsClimate Forecast
ProductsMME
CFS Improvements
• Reanalysis / Reforecasts
• Earth System Modeling
• Tropical oscillations
• Model physics
• Etc.
Res
earc
h To
pics