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UNITED NATIONS
Economic and Social Commission
for Western Asia
fill ^j-k*irth ^Vi
©*>
Bulletin on Vital Statistics in the ESCWA Region
ft film a tj& &j£^ll &I*1^a*I Aj^lu
<^j
Economic and Social Commission AjcW^j ^sL^Si\ AiaJM
for WesternAsia (ESCWA) (\j^A) hJ ^j^
'.UERARV t c':;:;:i - '
fitofctfAf on VitalStatistics in the ESCWA Region
First Issue JjVS a*1I
UNITED NATIONS
New York 1998
UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION
E/ESCWA/STAT/1998/7
ISBN. 92-1-128200-4ISSN. 1020-7368
Sales No. E/A.99.II.L.598-0537
*«!*.-
Pag
e
Co
nte
nts
****
*.
A^
laA
\In
tro
du
cti
on
'
Part
One:
Regi
stere
dVi
talE
vent
sA
l^\h
^\
0*\<
}\:<)
&?
^7
(jl£j
jJI
j-<Uj
ft>*fc
.^1.
Pop
ulat
ion
size
and
grow
th
2.Po
pulat
ion:e
stima
tesan
dlat
estav
ailab
lece
nsus
8'*
J£*
^^*
>b
^Ji&
'•C^
-Y
3.Vi
talsta
tistic
s,lat
esta
vaila
bleye
ar9
.ij
£*^
>l^
^cJ
*L-*
7»T
4.Vi
talsta
tistic
s:ex
pecta
tion
oflif
eatb
irth,
fertil
ity,
marr
iages
^IjjM
cjV^w
^j^
ill
t«jVj
M•*&
iLpJ
I£3
>:<
L«aJ
c^
L^
I.I
and
divor
cerat
es,l
atest
avail
able
data
10^W
L-aJ
j>jS
jl*ja
U>
»-
ipLU
Ij
5.Vi
talsta
tistic
s:reg
istere
dvit
alev
ents
inthe
1990
's11
^t_u
*Ja!
^2\
CjUI
I^Ija
jj^Io
U^
I.°
Part
Two:
Popu
latio
nEs
timat
esan
dPr
ojec
tions
A^J
I^li
^l
9^H
*ll
:„aa
rfrf
l
1.Es
timate
dcru
debir
thrat
efor
five-y
eari
nterv
als(1
950-
1995
)21
0<
Ho
-n°.
)V
~^
^>
"^
*»>•
»J*
"^
JJ^
-^
2.Es
timate
dcru
dede
athrat
efor
five-y
eari
nterv
als(1
950-
1995
)22
(n^
-Ho
.)W
JIcj1
>11
,U1I
ulijl
lJ*
u.^I
jjtfi
.T
3.To
talfer
tility
rate
forfiv
e-yea
rinte
rvals
(1950
-1995
)23
O^
0"1
10
')^
cljii
ll^
1^^
^Jl
Ja~
Oljjj
£.f
4.Po
pulat
ionsiz
e(19
50-19
95)
24(^
<\o
-^o
.)0l
^|^
.i
5.Li
feex
pecta
ncya
tbirth
(1950
-1995
)25
(m«
-^o
.)st
fjfl
^^
1j^
lJ«*
.-°
5a.
Male
slife
expe
ctanc
yatb
irth(19
50-19
95)
26(m
o-^
o.)
jjSjII
sjVjII
ait^
y^J
^^
-^•'
°
5b.
Fema
leslif
eexp
ectan
cyat
birth
(195
0-19
95)
270
«e-^
fi.
]^
^jJ
^^j
3-B
>«*
W*
-^°
-III
-
Pag
e
6.Pr
ojec
ted
crud
ebi
rth
rate
for
five
-yea
rint
erva
ls(1
995-
2050
)(M
ediu
mva
rian
t)28
6a.
Proj
ecte
dcr
ude
birt
hra
tefo
rfi
ve-y
eari
nter
vals
(199
5-20
50)
(Hig
hva
riant
)29
6b.
Proj
ecte
dcr
ude
birt
hra
tefo
rfi
ve-y
eari
nter
vals
(199
5-20
50)
(Low
vari
ant)
39
7.Pr
ojec
ted
crud
ede
ath
date
for
five
-yea
rint
erva
ls(1
995-
2050
)(M
ediu
mva
rian
t)32
7a.
Pro
ject
edcr
ude
deat
hra
tefo
rfi
ve-y
ear
inte
rval
s(1
995-
2050
)(H
igh
vari
ant)
33
7b.
Pro
ject
edcr
ude
deat
hra
tefo
rfi
ve-y
ear
inte
rval
s(1
995-
2050
)(L
owva
rian
t)34
(-k^
jiajl
Jj^J
l)
(Y.o
.-m
o)
4_l-
^Icj
ljiiH
rliJI
aJI^
JIJ^
cAL
liJ
.\1
'(ju
aiW
)
((j^a
LLLJ
IJj
aJI)
(ia^
jlail
Jj-lJ
l)
*(J
U1
J,aJ1
)
((jh
iVul
lJjJu
il)
8.Li
feex
pect
ancy
atbi
rth(1
995-
2050
)35
(Y.o
.-m
o)
iSi^
\Ai
cfi
ijiJ
Ij*
*l\
JLw
ji..A
8a.
Male
slif
eex
pect
ancy
atbi
rth(1
995-
2050
)36
(Y.o
.-m
o)
jjSiU
ijVjll
Ait
plji
Jij^
WU
-y...
.|A
8b.
Fem
ales
life
expe
ctan
cyat
birth
(199
5-20
50)
37(Y
.o.-
mo
)tli
U^U
S-iV
jll.li
t^
^Jl
j**j
|J^
ji^
.t_j
A
9.Po
pula
tion
annu
alra
teo
fcha
nge
for
five
-yea
rin
terv
als(
1995
-205
0)(M
ediu
mva
rian
t)40
9a.
Popu
latio
nan
nual
rate
ofc
hang
efo
rfi
ve-y
ear
inte
rval
s(1
995-
2050
)(H
igh
vari
ant)
41
9b.
Popu
latio
nan
nual
rate
ofc
hang
efo
rfiv
e-ye
arin
terv
als
(199
5-20
50)
(Low
vari
ant)
42
(Y.o
.-m
©)
S-lu
^Idjl
JiaU
if±A
\^j
iJI
jjjijl
lJi
^.<\
(-kuj
jiajl
lJjAj
JI)
(Y.o
,-m
o)
ku*A
±\\cj
j&i^
wiii
^>
jijj^
iiijd
^.n
(Ju
n^
O
(Y.0
.-)
<*<\o
)jj.
n^B
Cllj
iill^
1miill
(^ji*
JIjjj
jull
Ji**
.^_J1
ij^
'^ii
JjaJ
I)
9c.
Popu
latio
nan
nual
rate
ofch
ange
forf
ive-
year
inter
vals
(199
5-20
50)
(t.o
.-M
lo)
3j.«<
^1l
t-|lj"
'°u0.
--'ti
l5>
^'Ji
"^1
lU«-«
-r^
(Con
stant
ferti
lity
scen
ario
)43
(2~.I'l
l"2^
.^11
1j^
JjnJ
j
-IV
-
Pag
e10
.Pr
ojec
tedto
talf
ertil
ityra
tefo
rfiv
e-ye
arin
terva
ls(1
995-
2050
)(Y
.o.-
1<H
°)ol
jjill
^Kll
^j^^
-aiJI
Jo**
oUat
fJ.1
•(M
ediu
mva
riant
)45
(-k^
jlall
JjaJ
I)
10a.
Proj
ected
tota
lfer
tility
rate
forf
ive-
year
inter
vals
(199
5-20
50)
(Y.o
.-'m
o)
^Ijii
llJ£
\\<i
jm±l
\Ji
t-cA
LlLJ
.M
•(H
ighva
riant
)46
(J^
lW1)
10b.
Proj
ecte
dto
talf
ertil
ityra
tefo
rfiv
e-ye
arin
terva
ls(1
995-
2050
)(Y
.o»
-n^
°)C
iljiil
]^I
Sll
V*"
*^1
Ja**
oUaU
u-l
.<_j
^*(L
owva
riant
)47
(tjni
Vm
llJj
aJ)
11.
Proj
ecte
dpo
pula
tion
size
(199
5-20
50)
(Y.o
.-m
°)jl£
*J^
CiU
alLJ
.11
(Med
ium
varia
nt)
49(J
a*-jU
lJj
aJI)
11a.
Proje
cted
popu
lation
size(
1995
-205
0)(Y
*o
.-m
o)
jl£^|
^cjU
sUL.]
.In
(Hig
hva
riant
)50
(JU
JIJj
aJI)
lib.
Proj
ected
popu
latio
nsiz
e(1
995-
2050
)(Y
.o.-
mo
)jjt
iuJl
^Cj
Uali
J.l_
jU
(Low
varia
nt)
51(j
hiV
nti
JjAjII
)
lie.
Proj
ecte
dpo
pula
tion
size
(199
5-20
50)
(Y.o
.-m
o)
J&Jb
^cj
ILU
J.£
M(C
onsta
ntfe
rtilit
ysc
enar
io)
52(H
M<j
>-ai
Jljjj
1-^)
List
ofFi
gure
s^U
ilJU
fo,I
M1.
Proj
ected
crud
ebi
rthra
tesfo
rESC
WA
coun
tries
-diff
eren
tvar
iants
...31
2iH
i^JS
Iaj-
lj£jy
iUU
LaJa
U^U
JlaJ
>JI
oVa*
-cj
Ual
iJ.1
2.Cu
rrent
and
proj
ecte
dlif
eex
pecta
ncy
atbi
rth38
^SjiJ
jJl
aJl
.£UJ1
Aiti
LaJI
^Sjj
.Y
3.Fe
mal
esan
dm
ales
life
expe
ctan
cyat
birth
(199
5-20
00)
39(Y
l^
^°)
jj^i
llj
il£U
SjVj
MAi
tSlp
Jl^i
jjT
4.A
nnua
lrale
ofch
ange
forE
SCW
Aco
untri
es-d
iffer
entv
arian
ts44
iill
^Jj
Ijj-
IjS^V
liik
i*jIa
IJ^^
11jji
illJa
~>.t
5.Pr
ojec
tedto
talfe
rtilit
yra
tesfo
rESC
WA
coun
tries
-di
ffere
nt-
'j^-7
1^
^J
^^
l<?
_^-ai
JICj
Va*
-iiA
LUJ
.0va
riant
s48
*ifc
i-J3
hj
Sour
ces
and
foot
note
s55
cA
W^
tjja
L^J
I
-V-
Intr
od
ucti
on
This
publ
icat
ion
aim
sat
prov
idin
gda
taan
dst
atis
tics
that
are
fund
amen
tal
toth
epr
oces
sof
popu
latio
npr
ojec
tions
and
estim
ates
for
the
coun
trie
so
fth
eE
SC
WA
regi
on.
The
pres
ent
bulle
tinco
ntai
nstw
opa
rts;
the
first
part
prov
ides
stat
istic
son
the
regi
ster
edvi
tal
even
tsan
dsh
ows
the
disc
repa
ncie
sbe
twee
nth
ere
gist
ered
and
the
estim
ated
rate
sin
the
ESC
WA
regi
on.
The
resu
ltsof
the
late
stna
tionw
ide
cens
usof
popu
latio
nan
dth
ena
tiona
llyre
pres
enta
tive
statis
tics
ofliv
ebi
rths,
deat
hs,m
arria
ges
and
divo
rces
fora
num
ber
ofye
ars
that
area
vaila
ble
atth
eSt
atis
tics
Div
ision
area
lsosh
own
for
each
ofth
eE
SCW
Aco
untr
ies.
The
seco
ndpa
rtpr
esen
tsth
esi
zeof
ESCW
Apo
pula
tion
and
the
chan
ges
inth
ede
mog
raph
icco
mpo
nent
sof
the
regi
onas
proj
ecte
dby
the
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Popu
latio
nD
ivisi
on.
Part
on
e
Civ
ilR
egis
trat
ion
san
dV
ital
Sta
tist
ics
The
actu
alda
ta,
whi
chco
uld
beob
tain
edfro
mth
ena
tiona
lci
vil
regi
strat
ion,
are
the
main
sour
ceof
inve
stiga
ting
the
accu
racy
ofpo
pula
tion
estim
ates
and
proj
ectio
ns.
Civi
lre
gistr
atio
ns,
and
the
vita
lst
atis
tics
deriv
edfro
mth
issy
stem
,pr
ovid
ea
broa
dan
dco
mpr
ehen
sive
info
rmat
ion
base
for
the
popu
latio
no
faco
untr
y.
Such
prog
ram
sas
popu
latio
ndy
nam
ics,
heal
thsta
tus
ofth
epo
pula
tion,
dem
ogra
phy,
allo
catio
nof
healt
hse
rvice
san
dre
sour
ces,
allre
aliz
ebe
nefit
sfro
ma
regi
stra
tion
syst
em.
Ther
efor
e,th
ene
edfo
ref
fect
ive
civi
lre
gist
ratio
nan
dvi
tals
tatis
tics
syste
ms
inal
lcou
ntrie
sha
slo
ngbe
enre
cogn
ized
.M
ost
ofES
CWA
coun
tries
have
enab
ling
legi
slatio
nan
dha
vees
tabl
ished
am
oder
nre
gistr
atio
nsy
stem
.The
yal
soha
veap
prov
edin
tern
atio
nally
reco
mm
ende
dde
finiti
ons,
clas
sific
atio
ns,
and
tabu
latio
npl
ans.
How
ever
,in
som
eof
thes
eco
untri
es,
the
civi
lre
gistr
atio
nan
dvi
tal
statis
tics
syste
mar
esti
llin
com
plet
ean
din
need
ofm
ajor
impr
ovem
ents.
Lack
ofre
gistr
atio
nco
mpl
eten
ess
isa
maj
orpr
oble
m,a
ffec
ting
the
relia
bilit
yan
dtim
elin
ess
ofsta
tistic
s.
4^
aia
klilj
'va"i
^'I-
*-i
^ii•
)!•»l
jj.-'l*
'*'*-
iji^-
k-J'
''Jj
£jyl
^Ikl
aJa
L^i
jlS^J
lC
jIU
IJj
*>^ji
\J.w
J^
>J
^ui^
vij<
o'—isy
i*iaJ
B^
*i—»v
'<^
^ui
uijj
^oJij
Eijji
i^L
-^Ji
lijV
jt^l^
U'jS
-il^
cjl>
illj^
i»L
JljIj
Lt>
aL,J£
^jll
^II^
^^
a
^•UJI
Ja^l
jAJ
joaJ
ClfrU
a^yi
.1jj
sA
J'«.>
I
^_k
L-kjj
Sj'<
•-»^;
"-•-1'
CjUa
UI£i
jjHj,
>—Jl
t~^
JU1
^1**
*^Ji
-^>
^J^JA
*]IJ-
.-'11-U
lii^Ji
jJ\A
a-Ull
^JJ^
AUAj
c.AJl
ji^^
Jj*j
Uj^
A<Jl
J^ui
l^UiJ
iij.
^JaJ
J;r•
••'•l':3-3
31*.s
iliSj
—U
-^U
^j-jj
jjJj
^S^
1«JI
jS—"VI
JaL
^"j
.^^
^jli
Liili^
UjJ
Uj^j
—^-^
3>
JCJ
lLi-i
llj^Ju
jU^I
,>Ja
UI»A4
^jjU
^^_S
J;..^
'^Jl
^.U
jjX.
LSA-
JfA«J
Vjli
iJl°
A4^i
^^
CjUi
ljllJ
j^j^
JjaaJl
Jlilfrl—
a.VI
^a
xU,
».r
j_«^1
<_JI
CjI^
L-^V
'^>
^•J
^^^
^'-W
^1^
^J^
HJ-^
'i1""
How
ever
,th
eU
nite
dN
atio
nsha
ndbo
okon
"Civ
ilR
egis
trat
ion
and
Vita
lS
tati
stic
sSy
stem
7"ha
sde
scri
bed
anef
fici
ent
Civ
ilR
egis
trat
ion
Sys
tem
sas
thos
epr
ovid
ing
full
cove
rage
of
live
birt
hs,
foet
alde
aths
,ot
her
deat
hs,
mar
riag
esan
ddi
vorc
esoc
curr
ing
with
ina
spec
ific
area
.Su
cha
syst
emyi
elds
tim
ely,
accu
rate
and
com
plet
eda
taan
din
form
atio
non
vita
lev
en
ts.
The
civi
lre
gist
rati
onm
etho
dis
defi
ned
asth
eco
ntin
uous
,pe
rman
ent,
com
puls
ory
reco
rdin
go
foc
curr
ence
san
dch
arac
teri
stic
so
fvi
tal
even
tsas
prov
ided
inac
cord
ance
with
the
lega
lre
quir
emen
tsin
each
cou
ntr
y.
For
the
purp
ose
oi~
this
repo
rt,
regi
ster
edan
des
tim
ated
vita
lst
atis
tics
hav
eb
een
def
ined
asst
atis
tics
of
live
bir
th,
dea
th,
infa
nt
dea
th,
life
expe
ctan
cy,
mar
riag
ean
ddi
vorc
e.
Defi
nit
ion
so
fV
ita
lE
ven
ts
The
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
"Dem
ogra
phic
year
book
1995
"ha
sad
opte
dth
efo
llow
ing
defi
niti
ons
of
vita
lE
vent
s:
Liv
eb
irth
:is
the
com
plet
eex
puls
ion
orex
trac
tion
from
itsm
othe
ro
fapr
oduc
to
fco
ncep
tion
,ir
resp
ecti
veo
fth
edu
ratio
no
fpre
gnan
cy,
whi
chaf
ter
such
sepa
rati
onbr
eath
esor
show
san
yot
her
evid
ence
oflif
esu
chas
beat
ing
oft
hehe
art,
puls
atio
no
fthe
umbi
lical
cord
,or
defi
nite
mov
emen
to
fvo
lunt
ary
mus
cles
,w
heth
eror
not
the
umbi
lical
cord
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tais
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his
cons
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e-b
orn
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ard
less
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tati
on
alase
.
Dea
th:
isth
epe
rman
ent
disa
ppea
ranc
eo
fall
evid
ence
of
life
atan
ytim
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ter
live
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hha
sta
ken
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e(p
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tal
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tion
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den
ce
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mbe
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tes
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000
popu
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tili
tyR
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fch
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gave
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ngth
eir
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s.
Exp
lan
ato
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No
tes
1.C
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ess:
inth
isre
port
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com
plet
enes
sof
regi
stra
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clas
sify
coun
trie
sin
toth
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broa
dqu
ality
cate
gori
esas
have
been
adop
ted
byth
ere
port
on"P
opul
atio
nan
dvi
tal
Sta
tist
ics"
Ser
ies
AV
ol.
L,
No
.1-1
99
8:
C:
Dat
aes
tim
ated
tobe
virt
uall
yco
mpl
ete,
that
is,r
epre
sent
ing
atle
ast9
0pe
rcen
to
fthe
even
tsoc
curr
ing
each
year
.
U:
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aes
timat
edto
bein
com
plet
e,th
atis
repr
esen
ting
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than
90pe
rcen
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fthe
even
tsoc
curr
ing
each
year
.
...D
ata
for
whi
chno
spec
ific
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rmat
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aila
ble
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rdin
gco
mpl
eten
ess.
How
ever
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code
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pply
toth
ees
timat
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tes,
the
qual
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whi
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2.In
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mat
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etho
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