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JMA
Takayuki MATSUMURA (Forecast Department,
JMA)
C： Asia Air Survey co., ltd
New Forecast Technologies for New Forecast Technologies for Disaster Prevention and MitigationDisaster Prevention and Mitigation
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To protect life and property from natural disasters such as floods, landslides, debris flows, storms, etc.
Missions of JMA
Development of a Numerical Weather Prediction system
Accurate prediction of timing and location of severe weather events Accurate prediction of typhoon tracks
Based on physical lows Beyond several hours
Development of a Nowcast system
Accurate prediction of timing and location of precipitation Based on a heuristic method Up to a few hours
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Super-computer
PredictionPrecipitation,Temperature,
Winds ....
What is Numerical Weather Prediction ?
Schematic illustration of Numerical Model
Observation
Initial Condition
Numerical Model Physical laws
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Current Operational Numerical Models
• Typhoon model• Horizontal Resolution: 24 km• Updates: 4 times a day
• Global model• Horizontal Resolution: 60 km• Updates: 2 times a day
Regional model Horizontal
Resolution: 20 km Updates: 2 times a day
Mesoscale model Horizontal
Resolution: 10 km Updates: 4 times a day
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Initial ConditionNumerical Model
Requirements for Numerical Weather Prediction
Development of modelsAdvanced mesoscale model
fully-compressible non-hydrostatic equation, cloud microphysics
Use of various observational data
Satellites, Wind profiler, Aircraft, Doppler radar, ....
Improved Performance
Development of data assimilation
Advanced assimilation method
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Impact of the New Model
New Model Old Model
Rain Rate at the surface resulting from Baiu front at 15 JST, 19 July 2003.
Observation
Rain Rate (mm hr-1)
The new model shows better performance as compared to the old model.
Mesoscale Model Forecast of Heavy Rainfall
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Observation Data Used in the Analysis
A high-resolution model requires dense observations with sufficient accuracy.
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Performance of the Mesoscale Model Precipitation Forecast for Rain-rate at 10 mm / 3 hr
Accuracy of precipitation forecasts is represented by an objective index indicating the minimum (0) to the maximum (1).
For
ecas
t Ski
ll
new satellit
e data
a new model
a new assimilation method
domestic wind profile
r data
new satellit
e data
automated aircraft data
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Impact of Horizontal Resolution of the Model
10-km1.5-km
Three-hourly accumulated rainfall for 09 – 12 JST. Maximum rainfall amounts attained over 60 mm/hour .
Observed Rain Rate
As the horizontal resolution increases, the rain band is well represented.
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0
200
400
600
800
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004Year
Erro
r [km
]24 48 72
Typhoon Positional Error of Typhoon Model Forecasts
FT = 72 hours
FT = 48 hours
FT = 24 hours
Forecast errors of typhoon center positions are reduced, especially for longer forecast hours, resulting from model developments.
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Nowcasting of PrecipitationNowcastVery Short Range Forecast
1-hour rainfall res.=5km, issued every 30 minup to 6 hours
10-minutes rainfallres.=1km, issued every 10minup to 1 hour
nowcast represents localized high rain rates
Disaster prevention and mitigation•Urban flood caused by a rapidly developing rain cloud
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Future Plan
Development of a high-resolution model Horizontal resolution: 2 ~ 5 km
Further improvement of Typhoon forecast with new technologiesMulti-scale analysis of echo motion for nowcasting
Improve the forecasts of severe meteorological phenomena that threaten life and property.
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A role of JMA is to provide accurate forecasts for prevention and mitigation of natural disasters.
Enhancement of the numerical weather prediction system and nowcast system is an important task.
Summary
• Development of an advanced mesoscale model
• Use of various observational data
• Development of an advanced data assimilation method
• Improvements in the typhoon track forecasts
• Development of Very-Short-Range Precipitation forecasts including Nowcasting
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ありがとうございました。
Thank you.Merci.
謝謝
Gracias. Спасибо
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