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105%
96%
47%
39%
37%
36%
34%
31%
31%
30%
Solar photovoltaic installers
Wind turbine service technicians
Home health aides
Personal care aides
Physician assistants
Nurse practitioners
Statisticians
Physical therapist assistants
Software developers, applications
Mathematicians
The 10 fastest growing occupations
[VALUE]k
[VALUE]k
[VALUE]k
[VALUE]k
[VALUE]k
[VALUE]k
[VALUE]k
[VALUE]k
[VALUE]k
[VALUE]k
The 10 fastest declining occupations
-79%
-56%
-35%
-33%
-30%
-26%
-24%
-23%
-23%
-23%
Locomotive firers
Respiratory therapy technicians
Parking enforcement workers
Word processors and typists
Watch repairers
Electronic equipment installers and
Foundry mold and coremakers
Pourers and casters, metal
Computer operators
Telephone operators
[VALUE]k
[VALUE]k
[VALUE]k
[VALUE]k
[VALUE]k
[VALUE]k
[VALUE]k
[VALUE]k
[VALUE]k
[VALUE]k
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections 2016-2026, Tables 1.3 and 1.5, 2
JOBS OF THE FUTURE VS. JOBS OF THE PAST
TREND: APPLICATIONS USING ROBOTICS INCREASING
ROBOT BARISTA AT CAFÉ X BURGER FLIPPING ROBOT AT CALIBURGER
AUTOMATED DELIVERY AT WOW BAO
ROBOT BARTENDER AT TIPSY ROBOT AUTOMATED MCDONALD’S KIOSK
3
Source: Freelancing in America 2017, Freelancers Union & Upwork
TREND: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE EXPANDING
4
BASED ON RECENT MCKINSEY ANALYSIS, UP TO 33 PERCENT OF THE U.S. WORKFORCE MAY NEED TO CHANGE OCCUPATIONS BY 2030
CHALLENGE: WORKERS POTENTIALLY DISPLACED BY AUTOMATION
Source: McKinsey Global Institute, December 2017
[CATEGORY NAME]
[VALUE] million
[CATEGORY NAME]
[VALUE] million
[CATEGORY NAME]
[VALUE] million
NUMBER OF U.S. WORKERS DISPLACED BY AUTOMATION BY 2030
(in rapid automation scenario)
5
PREPARING WORKERS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY ECONOMY
WORKERS NEED ACCESS TO TRAINING THAT IS…
Ø QUALITY Ø AFFORDABLE Ø SKILLS-BASED
6
U.S. WORKFORCE TRAINING SYSTEM HAS THREE MAIN COMPONENTS
7
3
GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT
1
TRADITIONAL EDUCATION
2
BUSINESS INVESTMENT
POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION & TRAINING
Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of 2013 data from the Department of Education, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Government Accountability Office.
[CATEGORY NAME]
$413 billion
[CATEGORY NAME]
$177 billion
[CATEGORY NAME]
$347 billion
[CATEGORY NAME]
$60 billion
[CATEGORY NAME]
$47 billion
[CATEGORY NAME]
$18 billion
EMPLOYER-PROIVDED TRAINING AND TRADITIONAL FOUR-YEAR COLLEGES REPRESENT OVER 85% OF THE TOTAL $1.1 TRILLION INVESTED IN POSTSECONDARY WORKFORCE EDUCATION & TRAINING
ANNUAL U.S. SPENDING
8
9
$15.00
$17.00
$19.00
$21.00
$23.00
$25.00
1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Rea
l hou
rly w
age
(201
3 do
llars
)
REAL ENTRY-LEVEL WAGES OF MALE AND FEMALE COLLEGE GRADUATES, 1979–2013
Men
Women
TRADITIONAL HIGHER EDUCATION
ENTRY-LEVEL HOURLY WAGES FELL BY OVER 5 PERCENT FOR COLLEGE GRADUATES FROM 2000 TO 2013
Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of 2013 data from the Department of Education, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Government Accountability Office.
DECLINING EMPLOYER INVESTMENT IN WORKFORCE TRAINING
19.4
16.7
12.4 11.2
13.1 11.7
8.6 8.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
1996 2001 2004 2008
PERCENT OF U.S. WORKERS RECEIVING JOB-RELATED TRAINING
Employer-Paid Training On-the-Job Training
Note: Fraction of workers ages 18-65 receiving training of any duration last year. Source: Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation (Employment and Training Topical Module); CEA calculation 10
11
TRAINING BY EDUCATION LEVEL
58%
25%
17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Bachelor's degree or higher
Some college High school diploma or less
SHARE OF FORMAL TRAINING SPENDING BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF TRAINEE, 2013
Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce estimates based on analysis of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Survey of Employer-Provided Training (1995) and U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (2013).
EMPLOYERS SPEND 58 PERCENT OF THEIR FORMAL TRAINING DOLLARS ON COLLEGE-EDUCATED WORKERS
Source: Future of Work Initiative analysis of OECD data, “Public expenditure and participant stocks on LMP,” August 2018.
LOW PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN WORKFORCE TRAINING
BETWEEN 1985 AND 2016, SPENDING ON WORKFORCE TRAINING PROGRAMS FELL AS A PERCENT OF GDP FROM 0.14% TO 0.03% IN THE UNITED STATES
12
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Trai
ning
exp
endi
ture
as
% o
f GD
P
PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON U.S. WORKER TRAINING AS A PERCENTAGE
OF GDP
Source: Future of Work Initiative analysis of OECD data. 13
LOW PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN WORKFORCE TRAINING
60%
48%
37%
27%
20% 17% 16% 15%
12% 10% 7% 7%
4% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Expe
nditu
re a
s pe
rcen
t of G
DP
PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON WORKER TRAINING AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP, 2015
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
WE NEED A 21ST CENTURY TRAINING SYSTEM THAT:
• Focuses on teaching in-demand skills • Encourages lifelong learning • Provides an alternative to college • Incorporates – but is not dependent on – employers
14
TWO APPROACHES TO WORKER TRAINING
• Worker Training Tax Credit: Establish a tax credit that could be used by small and large businesses to invest in training for their low- and middle-income workers
• Corporate Accounting: Reform corporate accounting practices to treat training as an investment rather than expense.
• Worker Representation: Corporate boards should worker representatives that are elected by the employees of the corporation.
ENCOURAGE BUSINESSES TO INVEST
• Lifelong Learning & Training Accounts: Establish accounts that would be funded by workers, employers, and government, and could be used by workers to pay for education and training opportunities
• JOBS Act: Expand Pell Grant eligibility to cover high-quality and rigorous short-term job training programs
• Income Share Agreements (ISAs): Student receives education funding in exchange for an agreed upon percentage of post-graduation income over a defined number of years
HELP WORKERS GET TRAINING OUTSIDE OF EMPLOYERS
15
16
CONTACT INFORMATION
@EthanPollack @AspenFutureWork
www.aspeninstitute.org/futureofwork