PLAYER COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

JOE KRUGER Prepared by: Optima Sports Group Salt Lake City, UT December 12, 2016

INTRODUCTION

Optima Sports Analytics was engaged by professional sports agent Steve Gerritsen to run one of

his clients, Joe Kruger, through our performance models to analyze his ability to perform in the

NFL and to compare his abilities against the other defensive ends in the league. The purpose of

this report is to provide NFL teams with a third party validation and analysis of Joe to aid them

in their decision whether to acquire Joe as a player. The questions this project was designed to

answer are: (1) how well Joe Kruger should perform at the NFL level, and (2) whether teams

should acquire him for their team. In short, our analysis and this report show that Joe should

perform as well if not better than at least 50% of the current starting NFL defensive ends, and

that teams should be very interested in acquiring him.

DATA

We were provided with Joe’s original NFL Scouting Combine data. Additionally, we engaged a

certified personal trainer to run Joe through the Combine drills now to compare his new results

with his original NFL Scouting Combine data as well as that of current NFL defensive ends. We

were also provided with all of the current starting defensive ends’ data from both Combine and

on-field performance (where available), and were given NFL Scout grades on both Joe and other

players. The data was necessary to identify whether Joe Kruger has the “resources” to play in

the NFL and, if so, at what level; and to discover whether he is missing resources or encumbered

by “limiting resources” that would prevent him from playing at a meaningful level.

OUR APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY

For more than a decade, the team at OSA has employed a unique approach which has

consistently proven to be highly successful at predicting athletic performance. One way we are

unique is due to our analysis of each player in five key areas – physical, technical, tactical,

mental and emotional – each of which directly impacts the player’s ability to perform. By

utilizing a Bayesian statistical model framework implementing data fusion (data from multiple

sources, not just a single source) with dynamic weighting (giving appropriate weight to the

resources that have direct impact on ability to perform), we are able to identify with greater

accuracy both the resources of the individual athlete as well as what we define as “limiting

resources” (attributes that would prevent an athlete from playing at a top level). Good data is

key to building accurate performance models. The NFL Scouting Combine data was incomplete

in the case of many players, but secondary sources were able to fill gaps in performance data

and/or combine information. Through our analysis, we were able to identify some

inconsistencies among some public data sources in their reporting of Joe’s physical

characteristics (e.g., incorrectly listing him at 6’5 on one site and 6’9 on another.)

ANALYSIS

The Table

We have displayed the results of our analysis in chart below, showing Joe Kruger’s initial

combine results as they compare to all current starting defensive ends in the league and fresh

combine results from mid-September to see how he is still performing the basic measurements in

a straight comparison both to himself from his draft two years ago and to the current starting

defensive ends. We ranked all players, assigning them a value based on the NFL Scouting

Combine, performance data and scout grades (where available).

How to Read the Table

The first three rows of numbers represent the NFL Combine scores based on data for all current

defensive ends. That is, the Combine scores are those obtained when a given player entered the

NFL Draft. We have analyzed data to determine thresholds for: (1) the best 10%, (2) the best

50% (i.e., half of the scores are better, half are worse), and (3) the best 90% (i.e., only 10% of the

scores are worse).

What the Table Tells us About Joe’s Ability to Perform

You can compare Joe Kruger’s scores to these categorizations. For example, his 2013 Bench

Press (24) is right at the 50% threshold. Thus, 50% of the scores for all current DE’s are better

but half are worse. The same comparisons can be made for the other measures. It appears that

nearly all of his measurements have changed very little since his original NFL Draft Combine.

We think the bench press score is the most significant, especially coupled with the history of a

shoulder injury. Joe’s ability to rep 225 lbs, 21 times shows that there is no apparent lingering

injury. Coupling his measures with his height at 6’7, speed, vertical jump and so forth, Joe will

be able to add some significant value to a defense looking to improve their pass rush ability.

Athleticism: In a recent workout at the University of Utah, Joe ran through a series of drills

with a coach (see the attached link of the film). Joe Kruger is bigger than his brother Paul (New

Orleans Saints defensive end) and has better speed.

Workout video July 2016: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzMJvN_h_s8

Physical Evaluation: Kruger is 6’7 and weighs 275 lbs. His hands are 10+ inches, his reach is

8 ft. 6 inches, and his 40-yard sprint speed today is 4.79 seconds. In straight comparison just on

physical prowess with the combination of his height, weight, and speed, he should be a very

solid NFL player.

Tactical Evaluation: This is a combination of foot speed, identifying the plays, going to the

right spot on the field, etc. Based on collegiate statistics as well as his preseason performances,

Kruger is tactically sound. Coaching can make him a very strong tactical threat, meaning he can

be a stronger disruptive force. The data shows that he understands and can read the situation on

the field very well.

Technical Evaluation: Kruger has very good foot speed based on the shuttle run, 3-cone drill,

and on-field performance. He is a sound defensive end and comfortable in the position.

Mental and Emotional (Attitudes) Evaluation: We were able to gather mental and emotional

data on Joe from our sports psychologist. Based on his report, Kruger is a competitor. He will

play with high intensity and has a high motor. He will continue working hard regardless of

situation (driven to compete and win). Kruger is also coachable and a strong, reliable team

player.

Final Comparisons/Evaluations: Coupling bench press (strength) with his vertical and speed

(shuttle and 40), Joe Kruger compares very closely with Ziggy Ansah (5th pick overall), Jared

Allen (5 time Pro Bowl Selection with 136 career sacks), Jared Odrick, and Chandler Jones,

because of Joe’s ability to pass rush. Compared to all of the current NFL defensive ends, Joe

ranks in the middle at #31. This means he is a stronger player than at least half of the current

starting defensive ends in the league and can add more value than several of the defensive ends

playing now.

SUMMARY:

We began the report by identifying the key question put to us: Can Joe Kruger play in the NFL

at a meaningful level and add significant value to a team? Based on the data supplied to us and

our analysis, the answer to that question is a definite YES.

ABOUT OPTIMA SPORTS ANALYTICS

OSA is the top sports analytics company for accurately predicting athletic performance in professional, amateur, and fantasy sports. We have worked with numerous professional sports franchises, including NFL teams, by identifying talent that fits within their team system and adds more value.

The OSA approach is much different than current methodologies. We utilize a Bayesian statistical model with dynamic weighting and data fusion. Using this type of model allows us to incorporate data from multiple sources and give them weight as to their relevance in predicting performance coupled with the other necessary skills or attributes. A clear, comprehensive picture is drawn of the athlete’s capabilities and his “limiting resources”, which are attributes that would prevent him from playing at a high level.

OSA is the only sports analytics company that uses a Bayesian statistical model methodology incorporating data from all five areas that define performance - physical, technical, tactical, mental and emotional. OSA fuses these data points into our model giving a clear picture of the athlete’s ability to perform, identifying key resources needed to perform his specific task, as well as identifying limiting resources.

The OSA team will identify and assist in gathering the right information. More information can be compiled systematically and scientifically to blend with the critical input of scout grades and evaluation. Gathering better information helps build more accurate models and overall player analysis, which enables us to deliver to teams and agents more accurate information so they can make better decisions.

Our primary services and products available to professional sports teams include performance models, team synergy models (how a player fits your particular team and system), team culture models (identifying current team culture and which players will or will not fit), and injury propensity models (identifying the likelihood of injury for players).

Contact Information Optima Sports Group, LLC Attention: Troy Brazell Email: Troy.Brazell@optimasportsgroup.com Mobile: (801) 755-5810 Website: www.optimaanalytics.com