John Burns Presentation at 2019 Annual Investor Conference

presented by:Chris Porter | Chief Demographer

[email protected] 6, 2019

F O R B U S I N E S S E SD E M O G R A P H I C C L A R I T Y

Goal: Clarity

A New View on Generations

Huge Demographic Shifts

Single-Family Rental Market

Demographic Trends Determine Future Demand

1 YEAR OLDER

0.9 MILLION DIVORCES

2.7 MILLION DEATHS

2.2 MILLION MARRIAGES

3.8 MILLION NEWBORNS

2019

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

NU

MB

ER

OF

BIR

TH

S

1930 1946 1965 1980 2000

SILENTGENERATION

BABYBOOMERS

GENERATIONX MILLENNIALS

Peak Birth Years

Source: Department of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics and CDC

Biggest Problem: Generations

72-year-old 58-year-old

1946 1964B A B Y B O O M E R S

Boomer

What Do These People Have in Common?

38-year-old 19-year-old

1980 2000M I L L E N N I A L S

Millennial

What Do These People Have in Common?

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Synchrony FinancialTD AmeritradeDWM Direct ReportsBoston.comNewsweekMark McCrindlePwCGallupPewGallup2NY TimesPew2NY Times4TransUnionTD Ameritrade5American ProgressNY Times6Goldman SachsNY Times7Elwood CarlsonHowe and StraussWhite HouseBob Bowman, MLB

“Millennials” Are The Most Widely Debated Generation Definition

Average:1981 to 1998

orages 21 to 38

The Solution: More Clarity

Define the Generations by Decade Born to Simplify Your Decision Making2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N

US Born Foreign Born

Y E A R S B O R N

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M

39 M43 M

41 M44 M 45 M

42 M

11 M

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2017 National Projections


Those Born in the 1930s Learned to Save Early in Life2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N


Y E A R S B O R N

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

11 M

1930s SaversAge 79-88

2.4%

2.1%1.9%

1.5%

1.3% 1.3%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Retirees Had Double the Economic Growth That Their Children Have HadAV E R A G E G D P G R O W T H P E R P E R S O N — P R I M E W O R K I N G Y E A R S ( 2 5 - 5 4 )

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data*Prime working years not yet complete

RE

AL

GD

P G

RO

WT

H

G E N E R A T I O N

1960s Equalers* 1970s Balancers*1950s Innovators1940s Achievers 1980s Sharers*1930s Savers


The High-Achieving Earliest Boomers Have Retired2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N


Y E A R S B O R N

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M

11 M


1940s AchieversAge 69-78

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

The Achievers Led the Decline in Stay-at-Home MomsS H A R E O F M O M S A G E D 2 5 - 3 4 W H O S TAY AT H O M E F U L L - T I M E

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS; colors based on a 30-year-old mother

SH

AR

E O

F M

OT

HE

RS

Y E A R

48%

24%

27%


The Innovative Boomers Are Now Retiring in Droves2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N


Y E A R S B O R N

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M

39 M

11 M



1950s InnovatorsAge 59-68

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

P20

18P

2019

P20

20P

2021

P20

22P

2023

P20

24P

2025

P

Surging Retirement Will Slow Economy and Create New Types of Home Demand6 5 + P O P U L AT I O N B Y D E C A D E O F B I R T H

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Population Estimates and 2014 National Projections

65

+ P

OP

UL

AT

ION

(M

ILL

ION

S)

Y E A R

Pre 1930s 1930s Savers 1940s Achievers 1950s Innovators 1960s Equalers

48 M

65 M

Retirement Surge Will Lead to Slower Rate of Job Creation, Higher IncomesG R O W T H O F U S R E S I D E N T P O P U L AT I O N A G E S 2 0 - 6 4

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting LLC calculations using US Census Bureau population estimates (1981–2016) and 2018 national projections (2017–2025)

Y E A R

AN

NU

AL

GR

WO

TH

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%19

4119

4319

4519

4719

4919

5119

5319

5519

5719

5919

6119

6319

6519

6719

6919

7119

7319

7519

7719

7919

8119

8319

8519

8719

8919

9119

9319

9519

9719

9920

0120

0320

0520

0720

0920

1120

1320

1520

17P

2019

P20

21P

2023

P20

25P


More 1960s-Born Women Graduated College Than Men2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N


Y E A R S B O R N

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M

39 M43 M

11 M




1960s EqualersAge 49-58

Women Earn 58% of All College Degrees TodayP E R C E N T O F A L L B A C H E L O R ’ S A N D M A S T E R ’ S D E G R E E S C O N F E R R E D

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of National Center for Education Statistics data

197058% 58%2016

Rising DICE – Dual-Income, College EducatedD I C E S H A R E O F A L L M A R R I E D / PA R T N E R E D H O U S E H O L D S

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Current Population Survey ASEC via IPUMS-CPS

2%

5%

8%

11%

14%

17%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016SH

AR

E O

F A

LL

MA

RR

IED

/PA

RT

NE

RE

D H

OU

SE

HO

LD

S

Y E A R

Surprising Societal Shift: Rising Renters for Empty NestersR E N T E R S H I P R AT E B Y A G E , 4 5 - 6 4

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

20%

21%

22%

23%

24%

25%

26%

27%

28%

29%19

82

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

RE

NT

ER

SH

IP R

AT

E

Y E A R

21.3% 20.9%

27.8%


1970s Balancers Shifted the Definition of Success to Include Success at Home2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N


Y E A R S B O R N

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M

39 M43 M

41 M

11 M





1970s BalancersAge 39-48

37%35%

42%

25%

27%

29%

31%

33%

35%

37%

39%

41%

43%

1970s Balancer Homeownership at Their 10-Year High School ReunionH O M E O W N E R S H I P R AT E F O R 2 5 - 2 9 Y E A R - O L D S

Sources: US Census Bureau Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Survey; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

G E N E R A T I O N

6% above normal at age 28

1950s Innovators 1960s Equalers 1970s Balancers

1970s Balancer Homeownership at Their 20-Year High School ReunionH O M E O W N E R S H I P R AT E F O R 3 5 - 3 9 Y E A R - O L D S

Sources: US Census Bureau Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Survey; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

G E N E R A T I O N

61%63%

52%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

10% below normal at age 38

1950s Innovators 1960s Equalers 1970s Balancers

Dual-Income Households Peaked in 2000F E M A L E L A B O R F O R C E PA R T I C I PAT I O N R AT E , A G E S 2 0 – 6 4

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Labor Statistics data; color-coded based on the year a generation turns 20

% O

F 2

0–

64

YE

AR

-OL

D W

OM

EN

WH

O W

OR

K

Y E A R

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

1930s Savers

1940s Achievers

1950s Innovators

1960s Equalers

1970s Balancers

1980s Sharers

1990s Connectors

71%

37%42%

50%

61%69% 73% 71%

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

11.5%

12.0%

12.5%

13.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Almost 13% of America Now Rents a Single-Family HomeS I N G L E - FA M I LY R E N TA L H O M E S A S A P E R C E N T O F T O TA L H O U S E H O L D S

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data from American Community Survey; years are based on Q3

PE

RC

EN

T O

F T

OT

AL

HO

US

EH

OL

DS

Y E A R


1980s Sharers Have Led the Disruptive Shift to a Sharing Economy2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N


Y E A R S B O R N

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M

39 M43 M

41 M44 M

11 M






1980s SharersAge 29-38

The 1980s Sharers Have Quintupled Student Debt Since 2004S T U D E N T L O A N S O U T S TA N D I N G ( T R I L L I O N S )

Sources: New York Federal Reserve Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

$260 billion

$1.49 Trillion20042019

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Marriage and Kids Continue to Happen Later in LifeP E R C E N T O F 2 5 – 2 9 Y E A R - O L D S S I N G L E A N D W I T H O U T C H I L D R E N

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS

PE

RC

EN

T O

F A

LL

25

–2

9 Y

EA

R O

LD

S

Y E A R

1970s Balancers 1980s Sharers

18%

27%

39%43%

56%1940s Achievers 1950s Innovators 1960s Equalers

46%

Being Single has Allowed 1980s Sharers to Live UrbanU R B A N S H A R E O F H O U S E H O L D G R O W T H

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data

SH

AR

E O

F H

OU

SE

HO

LD

GR

OW

TH

D E C A D E

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010–2015

21%

7%

10%8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010–2015

But the Suburbs Still Capture Most of the GrowthS U B U R B A N S H A R E O F H O U S E H O L D G R O W T H

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data

SH

AR

E O

F H

OU

SE

HO

LD

GR

OW

TH

D E C A D E

71%79%

69%77%

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

55–64Empty Nester Years

20–29Young Adult Urban Years

Urban Demand Surged as Young Adult and Empty Nesters Population GrewR E C E N T C H A N G E I N A D U LT P O P U L AT I O N B Y A G E , 2 0 0 5 – 2 0 1 5


NE

T N

UM

BE

R O

F P

EO

PL

E (

MIL

LIO

NS

)

Y E A R

+10.2 M+4.6 M

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Milli

ons

Urban is Slowing as Demand Shifts to Family and Retirement YearsF U T U R E C H A N G E I N A D U LT P O P U L AT I O N B Y A G E 2 0 1 5 – 2 0 2 5


NE

T N

UM

BE

R O

F P

EO

PL

E (

MIL

LIO

NS

)

Y E A R

55–64Empty Nester Years

20–29Young Adult Urban Years

+0.4M-0.4M


1990s Connectors Use Their Phones Whenever Possible2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N


Y E A R S B O R N

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M

39 M43 M

41 M44 M 45 M

11 M







1990s ConnectorsAge 19-28

Demographics Easily Support 12.5 Million More Households Over 10 YearsN E T C H A N G E I N H O U S E H O L D S B Y D E C A D E B O R N , 2 0 1 6 – 2 0 2 5 ( M I L L I O N S )

Sources: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

NE

T C

HA

NG

E I

N H

OU

SE

HO

LD

S (

MIL

LIO

NS

)

-4.9-3.8

-1.4 -0.11.6

4.3

14.0

5.9

1930sSavers

1940sAchievers

1950sInnovators

1960sEqualers

1970sBalancers

1980sSharers

1990sConnectors

2000sGlobals

13.3 Million Losses

25.8 Million Gains


The Oldest 2000s Globals are Just Entering Adulthood2 0 1 8 U S P O P U L AT I O N


Y E A R S B O R N

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1930–39 1940–49 1950–59 1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000-09 2010+

25 M

39 M43 M

41 M44 M 45 M

42 M

11 M




1990s ConnectorsAge 19-28




2000s GlobalsAge 9-18

The Economy Impacts Each Life Stage Differently

Childhood Early Career Family Formation Late Career Retirement

13% of Americans are Immigrants, Impacted by 1980s and 1990s Government Policies

FO

RE

IGN

-BO

RN

SH

AR

E O

F P

OP

UL

AT

ION

Y E A R

14%15%

13%

12%

9%

7%

5%5%

6%

8%

11%

13%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Majority of foreign-born US population born in Europe

F O R E I G N - B O R N S H A R E O F U S P O P U L AT I O N

Sources: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau data

Technologies Impact Each Generation Differently Too

VS

Percentage of 30-Year-Olds Hitting Life-Stage Milestones Has Fallen Precipitously Compared to Past Generations

90% 89%

76%

56%

70%

57%

47%

33%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Live on their own Have ever married Live with a child Own a home

1975 2015Percentage of 30-Year-Olds Hitting 'Adult' Milestones

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Data: 2015, updated quarterly†)

While many of these milestones have been delayed, over time young adults will move out on their own, get married and have children. In the meantime, these younger cohorts represent significant demand in the pipeline for single-family rental operators.

Boomer and Gen X Renters Report a Spike in Desire to Keep Renting; Millennial Interest in Homeownership DecliningRenters between the ages of 53–71 expressed the least interest in homeownership, with 42% of respondents reporting no interest in ever owning a home, up from 23% in 2016.

Q: Which one of these statements best reflects your views about why you are currently renting?

MillennialAge 21–37

Gen XAge 38–52

Baby boomerAge 53–71

I have no interest in ever owning a home I want to ownRenting is a good choice now

54%

68% 65% 71% 74%

40%24% 27% 22% 18%

6% 11% 8% 7% 8%

January2016

March2017

August2017

February2017

August2018

44%55% 55%

51%54%

46%35% 33% 31% 25%

9% 10% 13% 19% 21%

January2016

March2017

August2017

February2017

August2018

35%

39%47% 39%

39%

42%29%

21% 25% 19%

23%32% 31% 35% 42%

January2016

March2017

August2017

February2017

August2018

Most recent survey base: 365 millennials, 271 Gen Xers, 323 baby boomers; sample includes SF and MF renters.Sources: Freddie Mac Profile of Today's Renter, Multifamily Renter Research; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Data: Aug-18, Pub: Mar-19)

Mortgage Tax Savings No Longer There for Entry-Level Home BuyersHomeownership does not have the significant tax advantages it once did because of the increasing standard deduction, declining mortgage rates, and the recent tax policy changes. The standard deduction currently exceeds deductions for mortgage interest and property taxes by $10,658.

$6,351

($10,658)($12,000)

($10,000)

($8,000)

($6,000)

($4,000)

($2,000)

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

P

*Assumes a married couple w ith a mortgage equal to 95% of median home price and a 1.5% property tax rate. 2019 projected value assumes our forecasts of 6% home price appreciation and 4.6% mortgage rate.

Mortgage Interest and Property Taxes in Excess of Standard Tax Deduction*US national

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Data: 2019, updated quarterly†)

How Big is the Single-Family Rental Market?The 15.7 million single-family rental homes represent 34% of all rented homes.

There are more single-family rental homes than apartment units contained in buildings with 10 or more units.

139.2 MM Housing

units¹

14.2 MM Vacant¹

125.0 MM Households¹

45.6 MM Rented¹

79.4 MM Owned¹

29.5 MM with no mortgage²

.9 MM above average vacant¹ª

13.3 MM average vacant¹ª

1.3 MM 30–90 days delinquent*

.8 MM 90+ days

2.0 MM Mobile homes, boats, etc.¹

49.9 MM with

mortgage²47.8 MM with

equity³

2.1 MM with negative equity³

2.9 MM Attached one unit rentals¹

14.6 MM Units in large buildings [10+ units]¹

13.2 MM Units in small buildings [2–9 units]¹

12.8 MM Detached one unit rentals¹

Pub: May-19

Single-Family Rentals as Percentage of Rental Housing Stock by StateSingle-family rentals comprise as much as 45%+ of rental housing in Midwestern states such as Oklahoma and Kansas. Northeastern states like New York and Massachusetts see only 12%+.

Single-Family Rentals as % of Total Rental Housing Stock by State

Note: Single-Family includes attached and detached units.Sources: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

SFR Ownership is Still Dominated by “Mom & Pop” InvestorsInstitutional owners/developers, those with over 100 units, have a competitive advantage over investors with fewer rental homes. Geographic concentration and technology allows institutional SFR owners to benefit from economies of scale in leasing, managing, and maintaining homes.

78% (10.8M)

8% (1.2M)

4% (538K)

6% (786K)

4% (531K)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

1 to 2

3 to 5

6 to 10

11 to 100

100+ (Institutional)

% of Total US Single-Family Rental Properties

National Single-Family Rental Ownership by Property Count

Source: ATTOM Data Solutions (Data: Jan-19, Pub: Feb-19)

Investor Portfolio Size

This analysis includes single-family detached residential only, per ATTOM Data Solutions non-owner occupied methodology. Values may include second homes that are not rented and non-owner occupied homes not used as rentals. We estimate the total US properties based on ATTOM’s 900+ market areas where the data was available. Institutional ownership in the 100+ property category is a rollup of those metros where owners own 100+ properties. An institutional owner may own fewer than 100 properties in a metro that is not counted in the national total. As a result, Institutional ownership is slightly understated, as big investors own less than 100 units in some MSAs, and this ownership is not included in the 100+ total. ATTOM programmatically identifies non-owner occupied homes (rental) and owner groupings by reviewing the owner name, zip code, and/or mailing address.

Profile Comparisons of Single-Family vs. Apartment RentersCompared to apartment renters, single-family renters are older and more likely to be married with kids.

30%

37%

58%

46%

12%

17%

Single-family

Multifamily

Under 35 35–64 65+Single-Family vs. Multifamily Age

38%

21%

62%

79%

Single-family

Multifamily

Married UnmarriedSingle-Family vs. Multifamily Marital Status

48%

71%

37%

24%

14%

6%

Single-family

Multifamily

No Kids 1–2 Kids 3+ KidsSingle-Family vs. Multifamily Kids

Note: Single-family defined as 1-unit detached and attached (townhome) units. Multifamily defined as 2+ unit structures. Mobile home renters not included.Sources: US Census Bureau 2017 American Community Survey data via IPUMS-USA

Reasons Tenants Choose to Rent Single-Family HomesSingle-family renters value having private laundry, privacy from neighbors, and ample parking.

0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75%

Making changes to unit

Landlord relationship

Storage

Feels like a "step up"

Noise

Yard

Pets

Size

Parking

Privacy

Laundry

Extremely important Very importantFactors That Influence Single-Family Rental Housing Choice

Sources: Terner Center for Housing Innovation; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Data: Apr-18, Pub: Mar-19)

Why Single-Family Homes are in Demand65% of Single-Family Rental Homes Contain Three or More Bedrooms Compared to Just 11% of Apartments

Young families not in a position to own, will overwhelmingly target single-family rental properties over apartments given their life stage and preference for good schools.

Single-Family Rents Grew 26% from 2011–2018Rent growth has historically stayed positive, even in recessionary periods (shaded in pink below). We forecast rents will increase another 9% through 2022 as poor homeownership affordability and shift toward renting props up demand.

3.7%

3.1%

2.4%

1.9%

1.6%

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6%

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US roll-up = 3.7% Historical average = 3.4%Burns Single-Family Rent Index™ (YOY %)

Note: We calculate the US roll-up based on a weighted average of 63 markets.Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Data: Mar-19; Pub: May-19)

SFR Rents Up 4% YOY NationallyStrongest Growth in Las Vegas, Phoenix and Orlando (7%); Weakest in Houston and Cincinnati (1%)

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Data: Mar-19, Pub: May-19) *Metropolitan division **Combination of metropolitan divisions

1.2%1.4%

2.2%2.9%

3.1%3.1%

3.4%3.5%3.6%

3.7%4.0%

4.1%4.6%

4.9%4.9%

5.2%5.5%

6.5%6.6%

6.7%7.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%

CincinnatiHouston

Miami*Dallas*

IndianapolisSan Antonio

Raleigh-DurhamDenver

Chicago**US roll-up (63-market)

Columbus, OHNashvilleCharlotte

TampaSalt Lake CityRiverside-SBJacksonville

AtlantaOrlandoPhoenix

Las Vegas

Burns Single-Family Rent Index™Mar-19 YOY %

73% of All SFR Rents in the Country Fall below $1,500/ Month; 50% below $1,100/MonthREITs generally operate at higher average rental rates: INVH = $1,768; AMH = $1,591; TAH = $1,361; RESI = $1,261.

13%

15%

21%23%

27%

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18%

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19%18%

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Less than $650 $650–849 $850–1,099 $1,100–1,499 $1,500 or More

Single-family ApartmentsMonthly Rental Rate by Type of Rental Housing Stock

Note: Single-Family includes attached and detached units.Sources: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates; JBREC

Single-Family Rents More Stable and Less Responsive to Business Cycle Than Apartment Rents and Home PricesSingle-family rent growth has historically stayed positive even in recessionary periods (shaded in pink).

Resale home price appreciation is our Burns Home Value Index™ weighted average rollup of 132 markets.Single-family rent is our Burns Single-Family Rent Index™ weighted average rollup of 63 markets.Apartment rent is Reis Services, LLC 46-market weighted rollup.Sources: REIS effective rent; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC; JBREC projections (Data: Mar-19, Pub: May-19)

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(12.0%)

(8.0%)

(4.0%)

0.0%

4.0%

8.0%

12.0%

16.0%

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P20

22P

Home price appreciation Single-family rent Apartment rentHome Price Appreciation vs. Single-Family Rent vs. Apartment RentNational YOY % change

Builders Constructed 42K New Single-Family Attached and Detached Homes for Rent over Past Year; Up 14% YOY

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le-fa

mily

hom

es b

uilt

for r

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in th

ousa

nds)

Historical averageNew Privately Owned Single-Family Starts Built for RentTrailing-twelve months

Note: This category includes all houses built on builders’ land with the intention of renting the housing unit. A lease-purchase, rent-purchase, or other option to eventually buy the house may exist. The category also includes retirement community units, occupied under a life-lease/continuing-care arrangement. (Occupants pay an up-front fee or small monthly fees for lifelong use.) The Census does not track actions taken after the sale of built-for-sale homes; therefore, the data does not include houses purchased by investors with the intention of renting out the unit.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (Data: 1Q19, Pub: May-19)

Goal: Clarity

A New View on Generations

Huge Demographic Shifts

Single-Family Rental Market

QUESTIONS?Chris Porter

[email protected]

Documents

John Burns Presentation at 2019 Annual Investor Conference