John Richards Graduate Public Policy Program Simon Fraser University Visiting Faculty

Society for Bangladesh Climate JusticeSeminar on Climate Change Impacts on Bangladesh

University of British Columbia9 December 2009

Global – and Domestic – Responsibilities for Climate Change

in Bangladesh

John Richards

Graduate Public Policy Program

Simon Fraser University

Visiting Faculty

IUBAT – International University of Business Agriculture and Technology, Dhaka

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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World Emissions, 2006(% change in selected countries 2005/06, million tonnes of CO2)

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

“There is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to institute a new order of things” – Machiavelli

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The essentials in Copenhagen

UN climate chief Yvo de Boer hopes the conference will reach agreements on four political essentials …

1. How much are the industrialized countries willing to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases?

2. How much are major developing countries such as China and India willing to do to limit the growth of their emissions?

3. How is the help needed by developing countries to engage in reducing their emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change going to be financed?

4. How is that money going to be managed?





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Historical (In)equities (1)



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Historical (In)equities (2)



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World map of hazard hotspots and countries most affected from 1998-2007 according to the Climate Risk Index

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Climate change factors external to Bangladesh

(1)

• Glacier melting Deforestation in Nepal

• Deforestation– “100-year” monsoon floods occurred in 1988 and

2004

• Changes in monsoon patterns



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Climate change factors

external to Bangladesh

(2)

• Rising sea temperature– more intense cyclones and sea surges in Bay of Bengal– Rising sea volume and hence sea levels







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Bangladesh to demand 15pc of adaptation fund: Hasan9 December 2009

Bangladesh will demand at least 15 percent of the global climate change adaptation fund -- proportionate to its population -- at the Copenhagen summit.

State Minister for Environment and Forests Hasan Mahmud said this yesterday explaining Bangladesh's stand at the summit.



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Bangladesh's role at Copenhagenclimate convention(Daily Star, 24 November 2009)

“At a recent conference at Harvard University onBangladesh, I proposed the following measuresto form the cornerstone of Bangladesh's efforts tocombat climate change:

-Invest in renewable energy,-Initiate quantitative targets for carbon reduction, Abdullah Shibli, economist-Improve energy efficiency,-Reward conservation, innovation, and mitigation efforts,-Develop domestic and non-fossil energy sources,-Research and promote an alternative low-carbon development strategy,-Institute cost-benefit approach for mitigation and abatement projects,-Impose a carbon tax on imported fuel,-Raise our voice in international climate forums and participate in sequestration projects, and-Appoint a climate change czar to advise the PM and coordinate policy.”



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Nepal to Burma –400 million living in fragile states with poor governance

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Corruption Perception IndexTransparency International

Year Bangla-desh rank

Number of countries ranked

2005 158 158

2006 156 163

2007 162 179

2008 147 180

2009 139 180

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Bangladesh Governance Indicators1996 (bottom) - 2008 (top)

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Generic Options 1. Regulations

Examples:• Canadian rising insulation standards in building codes• US new car manufacturers’ fleet mileage constraints• Dhaka ban on 2-stroke “baby taxis”and substitution of CNG-poweredequivalent

Advantages• simple to designDisadvantages• high compliance costs (role for performance standards)• limited ability of developing country governments to enforce



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Generic Options2. Efficiency (Pigovian) taxes/subsidies

Example:• Carbon taxes• 150 million Chinese subsidized coal stoves• road pricing in various cities (e.g., Singapore, London)

Advantages• internalize externalities without need to impose regulationsDisadvantages• administrative complexity of tax/subsidy design• political conflict arising due to redistributive effects

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Generic Options3. Markets in “goods and bads”

Examples:• Renewable portfolio standards in US, UK and elsewhere• European Union (EU) cap and trade market

Advantages• exploit efficiency of market exchange by allocating “abatement” to least cost providerDisadvantages• administrative complexity of market design• political conflict arising due to redistribution effects (e.g., is initial tradable permit allocation by grant or purchase?)• High variability of permit price

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Generic Options4. Redefinition of property rights

Advantages• Provide strong incentives to agents to “internalize”• minimize government supervisionDisadvantages• Transaction costsExamples:• Unitization of oil fields in early years of US oil developments• Creation of property rights (private or communal) over forests in Nepal

QuickTime™ and a decompressorare needed to see this picture.

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Potentialdomestic

adaptation-mitigation

strategies (1)

• Disaster preparation– Cyclone shelters and village warning systems

• Forestry– Protection of remaining forest cover (e.g., Sunderban)– Forestation of coastal land– Urban parks (shade and breeze)



Bangladesh village cyclone shelter

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Potentialdomestic


strategies (2)

• Power sector – Village coal distribution for domestic heating (to avoid

use of biomass fuels)– Expanded power capacity

• Population planning– Good but not good enough (current fertility rate: 2.7)



Improved Chinese stove (left),traditional stove (right)

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Potentialdomestic


strategies (3)

• Sensible pricing of carbon-intensive activities– Import duties on petroleum products– High automobile licence fees– Tax on hydrocarbon fuels based on emissions (carbon tax)– Congestion road taxation in Dhaka and Chittagong– Cost-recovery pricing for Power Development Board

CNG taxis issue less CO2 per liter than gasoline-powered cars



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John Richards Graduate Public Policy Program Simon Fraser University Visiting Faculty