JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 2010 YEAR IN REVIEW

Mr. Robert (Bob) FalveyDirector, Joint Typhoon Warning Center

65th INTERDEPARTMENTAL HURRICANE CONFERENCE

28 FEB – 3 MAR 2011

MIAMI, FL

Super Typhoon Megi2001010170833 DMSP F-17 Visible

MISSION

Provide tropical cyclone reconnaissance, analysis, forecast and warning support for

Department of Defense, and other US Government assets in the Pacific and Indian

Oceans as established by Commander, United States Pacific Command.

2010 SATELLITE RECON(Fixes by Agency)

113

343

86

94

41

93

42

(Total: 10,037)

2010 SATELLITE RECON(JTWC (PGTW) Fixes )

(Total: 6,334)

Total Microwave Fixes: 3,136 (49.5% of total)

5

ANNUAL TC ACTIVITY(All Basins / All Intensities)

Year

Num

ber

of C

yclo

nes

2010 NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

2010 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

2010 WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

Tropical Depressions: 5Tropical Storms: 5Typhoons: 8Super Typhoons: 1 (Megi)

Lowest number of warned cyclones in JTWC record

2010 JTWC TRACK ERRORS(All Basins)

296 72 232 263 63 205 228 53 174 62 6 58100 11 83148 22 115200 42 152

JTWC TRACK ERRORS

24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr2006 64 106 1512007 61 100 1472008 66 120 1982009 65 122 1832010 60 99 152*Goal: 25 50 75

(Western North Pacific - 24-72 Hours)

JTWC TRACK ERRORS

96 Hr 120 Hr2006 216 3092007 187 2142008 301 4472009 258 2982010 216 261*Goal: 100 150

(WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC – 96-120 Hours)

2010 WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TRACK ERRORS

(Storm by Storm)

CROSS TRACK (direction) ERROR(Western North Pacific)

ALONG TRACK (speed) ERROR(Western North Pacific)

2010 MODEL TRACK ERRORS(Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

JTWC INTENSITY ERRORS(Western North Pacific 24 - 120 Hours)

24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr 96Hr 120Hr2006 13 18 20 22 242007 11 18 23 24 262008 12 19 21 22

282009 12 19 25 26 272010 9 12 15 21 24*Goal: +/- 20% of actual at all TAUs

2010 WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC INTENSITY ERRORS

(Storm by Storm)

2010 MODEL INTENSITY ERRORS(Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

2011 PROJECTS/EVENTS

• Genesis or Development potential– Use of radiance data (Ritchie)– Statistical/Dynamic (Murphree)

• Intensity analysis/forecast/verification– (OBT,ADT/SATCON,AMSU)

• Ensemble TC forecasting • Rapid intensification climatology,

diagnoses, and prediction • TC / TUTT cell interaction• Singular vector analysis

– Application of sensitivity studies (Reynolds, et. Al.)

• Improvements to data processing, display, analysis and storage

– Google Earth tool (GEMINI)– PZAL (Collab) archive – JTWC Automation Management

System (JAMS)– AWIPS-2 Evaluation

• COAMPS-TC evaluation

• GFDN upgrades / coupling

• AFWA UM TC Tracker

• Mark IVB X-Band Upgrade

• Typhoon Conference– Tokyo, 5-8 April 2011

• Hosted Taiwan CWB and Australia BoM visiting scientists

• Building closer ties with UH

• Hiring GS-13 Chief Scientist– Increased JHT/HFIP participation

– Possible JHT funding (~$500K)

OPERATIONAL ITEMS

• ITOP / TCS-10 – TDOs flew missions• Invest/Suspect Areas

– Poor/Fair/Good potential for development change to Low/Medium/High probability of development

– Clarity for non-weather customers– Implementation 1 Jun 11

• ATCF Funding – Back on Track• Continued focus on along track and intensity

STILL NEED WORK ON TRACK(TC Phet (03A))

UKMO (EGGR)GFSNOGAPS

ECMWFGFDNJTWC & CONW

Contact Info

• Commanding Officer, NMFC/JTWC CAPT Mike Angove

michael.angove@navy.mil (808) 471-0363

• Director Mr. Robert Falvey robert.falvey@navy.mil

(808) 474-5301

• Technical Advisor Mr. Ed Fukada

edward.fukada@navy.mil(808) 474-5305

• Operations Officer (JTOPS)LCDR Jeremy Callahanjeremy.callahan@navy.mil

(808) 471-4597

• Techniques Development Mr. Matt Kucas

matthew.kucas@navy.mil (808) 471-4597

• Satellite Operations FlightCapt Jay Neesejay.neese@navy.mil

(808) 474-3946

QUESTIONS

BACKUPS

JTWC AOR

33%8%

11% 13%7%

1 7%

RSMCMiami

27

TC ACTIVITY

NW PacificNW Pacific 2006: 262006: 26 2007: 272007: 27 2008: 272008: 27 2009:2009: 28 28 2010: 19 2010: 19 25 Yr avg: 3125 Yr avg: 31

S. Indian Ocean &W. Australia Region 2006: 15 2007: 14 2008: 21 2009: 18 2010: 14 25 Yr avg: 18

South Pacific & E. Australia Region 2006: 8 2007: 10 2008: 8 2009: 9 2010: 1025 Yr avg: 10

C PacificC Pacific 2006: 12006: 1 2007: 02007: 0 2008: 12008: 1 2009: 32009: 3 2010: 1 2010: 1 25 Yr avg: 2 25 Yr avg: 2

NE PacificNE Pacific 2006: 212006: 21 2007: 152007: 15 2008: 182008: 18 2009: 202009: 20 2010: 122010: 1225 Yr avg: 1825 Yr avg: 18

Arabian Sea &Arabian Sea &Bay of BengalBay of Bengal 2006: 52006: 5 2007: 62007: 6 2008: 72008: 7 2009: 52009: 5 2010: 52010: 5 25 Yr avg: 525 Yr avg: 5

28

ANNUAL TC ACTIVITY(Western North Pacific Ocean)

Year

Num

ber

of C

yclo

nes

29

ANNUAL TC ACTIVITY(North Indian Ocean)

Year

Num

ber

of C

yclo

nes

30

ANNUAL TC ACTIVITY(Southern Hemisphere)

Year

Num

ber

of C

yclo

nes

2010 SATELLITE RECON Microwave Fixes by JTWC

Total Microwave Fixes: 3,136 (49.5% of total)

AVERAGE TRACK ERROR(Western North Pacific)

2010 MODEL TRACK ERRORS(Western North Pacific – Non-homogeneous)

Note: GFDN errors negatively impacted by code porting problem

2007 MODEL TRACK ERRORS(Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

12 24 36 48 72 96 120

Forecast Tau

Err

or

(nm

)

JTWC

CONW

GFS

UKMO

ECMWF

GFDN

NGPS

(111) (13)(29)(54)(74)(85)(93)

2008 MODEL TRACK ERRORS(Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

12 24 36 48 72 96 120

Forecast Tau

Err

or

(nm

)

JTWC

CONW

GFS

UKMO

ECMWF

GFDN

NGPS

(115) (13)(27)(48)(76)(91)(101)

2009 MODEL TRACK ERRORS(Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

12 24 36 48 72 96 120

Forecast Tau

Err

or

(nm

)

JTWC

CONW

GFS

UKMO

ECMWF

GFDN

NGPS

(178) (46)(58)(86)(121)(144)(157)

2010 MODEL INTENSITY ERRORS(Western North Pacific – Non-homogeneous)

2007 MODEL INTENSITY ERRORS(Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

12 24 36 48 72 96 120

Forecast Tau

Err

or

(kts

)

JTWC

GFS

ECMWF

GFDN

NGPS

ST10

ST11

(104) (14)(30)(53)(69)(80)(88)

2008 MODEL INTENSITY ERRORS(Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

12 24 36 48 72 96 120

Forecast Tau

Err

or

(kts

)

JTWC

GFS

ECMWF

GFDN

NGPS

ST10

ST11

(82) (11)(24)(38)(57)(64)(71)

2009 MODEL INTENSITY ERRORS(Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

12 24 36 48 72 96 120

Forecast Tau

Err

or

(kts

)

JTWC

GFS

ECMWF

GFDN

NGPS

ST10

ST11

S511

(155) (42)(54)(78)(107)(125)(135)