JOINTLY BUILDING THE MARITIME SILK ROAD IN THE 21ST CENTURY 

A Presentation by Gen. Vinod Saighal,

At the 7th China-ASEAN Think Tank Strategic Dialogue Forum (2014)

Presentation Flow

1.  Introduction

2.  Contested Maritime Spaces

3.  Geopolitical Uncertainties & Armaments Escalation 

4.  Reactions from the US and Japan

5.  India’s Position

6.  Looking Ahead   

Abstract

• It should not come as a surprise to its leaders that the reaction in several neighboring countries to MSR would have been that China was trying to further strengthen its already formidable economic hold on the region. Vague suggestions of mutual benefits for everybody do not sound convincing till these are clearly spelled out. The picture that is conjured up is of Admiral Zheng He’s naval armada at the start of the 15th century when China ruled the waves., just as Britain did at the zenith of its power a few centuries later or as the US did for a long spell till another power is moving rapidly ahead to challenge its global ascendancy.

• Notwithstanding the above, China enjoys unique historical legacy unparalleled in the annals of seafaring. Comparisons will inevitably be made with the launching of large naval fleets by European seafaring nations, ostensibly for trade. Invariably these ended up by ruthless extermination of indigenous populations and conquest of territories that lasted several hundred years in some cases. On the other hand the naval armadas launched by the Chinese Emperor into Southeast Asia and beyond were neither exploitative nor did they lead to Chinese settlements and territorial aggrandizement. If anything, their objective as stated in extant records could be described as ‘promoting larger cosmic harmony’, albeit under the benign gaze of the great Chinese Emperor who enjoyed the mandate of Heaven.

• Although the launch of the MSR takes off from the legacy of goodwill missions of yore the regional realities of the second decade of the 21st century provide ample scope for serious misgivings about the nature of the initiative sought to be promoted. Conditioned by centuries of exploitation by the colonial masters, in people’s minds, the dominant economies follow largely one-sided trade patterns that have become synonymous with exploitative, extractive and ecologically destructive trade practices. In practically all cases the poverty-stricken populations of the recipient countries have seldom benefited from the big investments. For the dismal record of earlier trade patterns to be overtaken by the promises of a new era of joint prosperity for all, it becomes essential that the initiative gets off to a good start, avoiding the pitfalls that have been highlighted. Facing them squarely at the start rather than glossing over them, as if these were minor irritants, could go a long way in ensuring a smooth take-off.

• Inevitably China’s meteoric economic rise that could in the not too distant future overtake the U.S. as the Number One global economy was bound to lead to an enhanced military capability. Throughout history economic powers have mobilized matching military power, not always for territorial expansion, but for safeguarding the economic prosperity of the country and keeping those eyeing covetous neighbors at bay. Of course, the route that China takes with its formidable military acquisitions will play a significant role in whether the MSR can see the light of day or whether it remains a chimera in the imagination of China’s leadership. The paper while examining the Contested Maritime Spaces and the Geopolitical Uncertainties that obtain along the proposed maritime silk route, goes on to suggest pathways that could go a long way in ensuring the success of the venture that may well last the course of the 21st Century.

Abstract

Introductory Remarks

•  According to a report appearing in the Indian press (datelined Xian (China) August 10, 2014), China has invited India to join President Xi Jinping’s pet project that would revive the ancient trade routes and benefit the region. It goes on to state “From historical point of view India is the converging Maritime Silk Route (MSR) and the ancient Silk Road on land. For more than 2,000 years India had very good exchanges with China through the passage of the South Silk Road.” Gao Zhenting, councilor, department of international economic affairs told PTI (The Asian Age, Monday August 11, 2014).

• Projected Meeting in September 2014 Between President Xi Jinping & Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Social Tensions and Concerns• The government would have realized that the export-driven model of growth that took 

the economy to spectacular heights through double digit growth cannot be sustained in the coming years, highlighting the need for new avenues of growth.

• Laudable Aims

• South Asian Hub

• TPP Proposed by the U.S. as Counter to MSR

• Declining Primacy in Myanmar

• The 20th century British philosopher Bertrand Russell observed and I quote, "Contacts between different civilizations have often in the past proved to be landmarks in human progress (Speech by Dai Bingguo, 2014/07/12, Guiyang)

• Enormous tragedy visited by the western colonial masters

• Vasudev Kutambakam.

• China & India on the Same Page 

" In the Spring and Autumn Period of China more than 2,700 years ago, Guan Zhong, an ancient philosopher and politician of Qi Kingdom, put forward four principles, namely non-alliance,

non-belligerence, good-neighborliness and proper management of border areas. He advocated harmony at home and abroad, no

use of force, opening up to the outside world and meritocracy. The philosophy of harmony had a far-reaching impact on building

the Silk Road and even the foreign policy of China over the past 2,000 years.”

•The  above  admirably  embodies the  spirit  of  the  new  Silk Routes in our century, the 21st.

Contested Maritime Spaces

• Lee Kuan Yew, the respected elder statesman of Singapore has said that Chinese leaders recognize they can’t confront the U.S. military until they have overtaken it in terms of development and application of technology. Nonetheless, he says he is sure they aspire to displace the U.S. as the leading power in Asia.

• “The 21st century will be a contest for supremacy in the Pacific because that is where the growth will be,” Mr. Lee was quoted as saying in a recently published book. “If the U.S. does not hold its ground in the Pacific, it cannot be a world leader.” 

Contested Maritime Spaces

• Modus vivendi between the two great powers who wish to dominate the Pacific and the Indian Ocean maritime spaces. 

• The nine-dash line.

• The limit of China’s assertion. 

• Contested Maritime Space between China & India in The Indian Ocean.       

Geopolitical Uncertainties & Armaments Escalation

• Taking  each  one  of  the  contestants  in  turn  and  starting with India with  whom China has  a  major  boundary dispute, India is  increasing  its  naval  capability  to  meet  a projected challenge from China.

• Chinese Monroe Doctrine

• The trilateral naval exercises in the western Pacific Ocean in July 2014.

• Quadrilateral Alliance.

Tensions that could escalate further and indefinitely push back the MSR can be summarized as under:

• Tensions that have the potential to get out of hand.

• Did China Jump the Gun.

• Extra-regional powers.

• Escalation on a scale that might inflame the region as a whole.

• Slower maturation into a world power.

• Reports from the 2nd International Conference on Security and Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region, Beijing: 27-28 May 2014.

• Deliberations in Naypyidaw at the ASEAN Regional Forum and East Asia Summit in the second week of August 2014.

• Binding Code of Conduct for maritime actions.

According to Joseph S Nye, a Chinese military posture that is too aggressive could produce a countervailing 

coalition among its neighbors, thereby weakening China’s hard and soft power. In 2010, for example, 

as China became more assertive in its foreign policy towards its neighbors, its relations 

with India, Japan and South Korea suffered. As a result, Nye avers, China will find it more difficult to exclude The 

US from Asia’s security arrangements. - (Joseph S Nye, Times of India, New Delhi April 27, 2011).

 

It is almost a historical truism that whenever a major intervention in the geopolitical domain by a world power takes place, it is seldom, if

ever, possible to get back to the status quo ante.

Something on these lines has taken place since 2010 in the South China Sea region, where China’s military and economic surge has reached proportions that could dwarf the combined might of the

other countries having geographic contiguity to the South China Sea.

In sum it is for China to hold its horses or tread water to use a naval term till a semblance of peace returns to the region.

Reactions from the U.S.

• There is a general perception that during the Obama administration bilateral relations between China and the U.S. have sunk to their lowest point since the Nixon- Kissinger period of the 1970s. 

• Leaders in Beijing and Washington have disagreed on how to solve major problems in the international trading system, climate change and regional security. • Washington claims that its military and diplomatic alliances in the Asia-Pacific are a rebalancing exercise. 

• Beijing, however, sees it as containment strategy, pure and simple. 

• South China Sea carries a third of the world's trade. For the US not to counter perceptions of declining commitment to the region would undermine its influence. 

• America's stake in Asia is enormous - nearly a trillion dollars in annual trade, billions of dollars of investment.

Reaction from Japan

• On 1 July 2014, Japan’s Abe government announced a major change to the country’s post-war security policy by effectively lifting the ban on collective self-defence. • It introduced new legislation that reinterpreted Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, there by permitting Japan to use military force to come to the aid of an ally or a country in a close relationship with Japan when it is under armed attack. • The July reinterpretation becomes highly significant for the region because it could force China to confront the possibility of dealing with a more powerful Japan in East Asia. • It needs to be recalled that Japan suddenly changed the status quo in 2012 to "nationalise" the Diaoyus/Senkakus, leading to aggressive counter measures by China.

The Thucydides Trap

Summarizing the confrontations that seem to be hardening, fear of new cold war developing in the region cannot be ruled out. The biggest danger is that misperceptions on the part of the two biggest contenders - China and the US – could lead to a regional flare up should China push its claims more aggressively; and on the part of the US, it could fall into the Thucydides Trap should Republicans capture the White House when Obama’s second term comes to an end.

India’s Position

• India’s stated position.• Igniting a dormant frontier territorial dispute.• Doubt about Future U.S. Capabilities.• India as the regional balancer.• Further Overtures to India.• India a Benign Presence.• India’s Concerns.• Suspicions regarding latest developments in the region.• Game Changer.• Extension of the Look East Policy.

•  

Looking Ahead

Dr.  Edward De Bono,  lateral  thinking  guru and  inventor of   the Six Thinking Hats Theory has this to say about India-China relations: 

“If India can partner China, the two can become a super power in a short time. Alternately, if India and China can form a coalition for bringing other developing nations under its fold, it can beat all other super powers”

 (The Economic Times, New Delhi, 18 September 2007).

 

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• Settlement that should be ecologically sustainable, economically just and equitable for all people living in the region. 

• Through several millennia Chinese civilization has influenced its neighbors.

• The grave problems that threaten the viability of life on the planet require the emerging great powers, especially China and India to take the lead in tackling them.

Moving forward to a sustainable and equitable paradigm

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Moving forward to a sustainable and equitable paradigm

• Confidence Building Measures• Between China and ASEAN• Between China and Japan• Between China and Vietnam • Between China and India

• The Grand Bargain between China & India for maintaining harmony, prosperity & equilibrium.

As the harbinger of peace and prosperity China effortlessly and seamlessly will come into its own as the Middle Kingdom of yore. 

None of its neighbors, once assured that its peaceful rise can never be transformed into anything other than peaceful, would begrudge China its role as the brightest star in the Asian firmament, a prelude to greater glory at the global level by the mid-21st century.

It will also become the start point of the Maritime Silk Route of the 21st Century underpinned collectively by the largest Asian powers China and India, together strengthening the Asian Century for at least the current century, if not beyond.

Thank you