Upload
brit
View
51
Download
1
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
The effects of global warming on pulmonary health. Jon Ayres Institute of Occupational & Environmental Medicine University of Birmingham, UK j,[email protected]. The effects of global warming on pulmonary health. Climate change Possible effects on patients with lung disease - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Jon Ayres
Institute of Occupational &Environmental Medicine
University of Birmingham, UKj,[email protected]
The effects of global warming on pulmonary health
The effects of global warming on pulmonary health
• Climate change• Possible effects on patients with lung disease
– Heat, cold and weather changes– Pollution– Allergic responses– Infections
• What can be done– Mitigation – Adaptation– Advocacy
John Tyndall 1820-93
Recognised the greenhouse effect andidentified the relative radiative forcing of the different greenhouse gases.
"The waves of heat speed from our earth through our atmosphere towards space. These waves dash in their passage against the atoms of oxygen and nitrogen and against molecules of aqueous vapour. Thinly scattered as these latter are, we might naturally think of them meanly as barriers to the waves of heat."
Temperature trends in central England
Greenhouse gas emissions are warming the earth
GHG emissions have increased by 70% over the last four decades (IPCC 2007).
Energy and transport are the biggest emitters.
Transport emissions projected to increase by about 50% by 2030 compared to 2000 (EEA
2007). Projected temperature
increase by the end of the 21st century is 2.3 - 6°C (IPCC 2007).
How climate change can affect health
Climate change
Direct exposures
Environ-mental
conditions
Indirect exposures (through changes vector ecology, food yields, etc.)
Health impacts
Health system
Social & economic disruption
Socio-economic conditions
Modifying influence
*
*
Key respiratory conditions
• COPD– Prevalence– Severity
• Disease progression and exacerbations– Mortality
• Asthma– Prevalence– Severity
• Respiratory infections– Pneumonia
• Rhinitis and other allergies– Prevalence– Severity
To what extent?Which interventions?What advice? > to Governments > to our patients
1 Extreme temperature events• both heat and cold2 Changes in air pollution• ozone (sulphates, PM)3 Flooding4 Damp housing5 Thunderstorms6 Infections7 Changes in allergen disposition• and consequent allergies8 Forest fires9 Dust storms
Climate change and respiratory disease
ERS position statementAyres et al Eur Respir J 2009;34:295-302
Temperature
Phewe EU ProjectMax temperature and hospital admissions
Michelozzi et al, AJRCCM, 2009
Stafoggia et al, JECH, 2008
Place of death and heat-related mortality
Thanks to Mercedes Medina-Ramon
Thanks to Mercedes Medina-Ramon
Temperature, PM10 and Mortality
Stafoggia et al, AJE in press
Wild fires
San Diego October 2007
With thanks to Bert Brunekreef
Saharan dust storms
With thanks to Bert Brunekreef
• Will likely increase in some areas
• Effects in asthma – Temperature drop– Grass pollen
Packe & Ayres Lancet 1985;ii:199-203
Thunderstorms and asthma
But…cold weather still affects Europe
Cold outdoor and indoor temperatures can cause cardio-pulmonary problems.
These effects may be most serious for poorer households.
Most European countries suffer from 5-30% excess winter mortality (IPCC 2007).
Health risks may arise from the use of solid fossil fuels and biomass
HOW TO REDUCE HEALTH EFFECTSEnsure health systems preparedness by adapting health care infrastructures; advocating access to clean, affordable
and reliable energy with other sectors; promoting energy efficiency
Photo: WHO
What we need to know…..
• More about the effects of CC – on those with existing lung conditions– on the incidence of new disease
• Monitoring respiratory disease indicators • Improve basic research into respiratory disease
aetiology/mechanisms in the context of CC• Assess interventions
– e.g. warning systems for heat waves– targeted housing design
What we can do immediately…..
• Be aware!• Press for continued downward pressure on air
pollution by Governments• Home insulation/air conditioning• Advise the susceptible• Warning systems for heat waves
• Cost-benefit…..
What we can do as individuals
• Inform our professional colleagues• Set an example
– Tensions when it comes to international conferences!
• Advocate– Ensure our own Governments and the EU are
aware of the legislative options– Evaluate the interventions
Thank you for your attention