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Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
The Future of the Internet
Concept by Mac Funamizu, http://petitinvention.wordpress.com/2008/02/10/future-of-internet-search-mobile-version/
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
The democratization of technological power has made the shape of the future hard to know, even for the best informed.~ Tim Wu, The Master Switch
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
MapsImage: University of California - San Diego
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
Map: http://www.lumeta.com/
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
source: http://www.informationarchitects.jp/slash/iA_WebTrends_2007_2_1600x1024.gif
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected] Mindwest Strategies (http://mindwest.net/)
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
History
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
Evolution
• Arpanet (as of 1983)and NSFNet (1985): TCP/IP networks for research and development
• NSFNet opened to other networks, esp. mail (1988)
• World Wide Web via HTML and HTTP (1989-1991)
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
Evolution of Applications• Email, Newsgroups, IRC chat, instant messaging for
communication• FTP for moving data• Archie, Veronica, WAIS for finding data (early search)• Gopher for distributing, searching, and retrieving
documents• World Wide Web for the same sort of things as Gopher, but
with hypertext, and eventuall media• Altavista, then Google, for finding data on the web (later,
more sophisticated search)• Content Management Systems for publishing• Blogs and Wikis for sharing information• Social Networks for finding others, connecting, sustaining
connection, sharing media and data
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
It’s all about data.
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
What’s been changing• Broadband: more bandwidth, faster connections, enabling
media distribution over the web• Adoption: more people doing more things online• Everything is miscellaneous: information explodes, “wants to
be free” and findable quickly without reliance on taxonomies and categorical structures. We engage more randomly with the world (association)
• Voice over IP (e.g. Skype): cheap, immediate voice communication
• Post-Television: Hulu/BitTorrent/Netflix bring on-demand video delivery via computer
• Politics: Grassroots Adhocracies, Tea Party, Egypt and the Middle East, questions about participation, democracy
• Mobility: the world in your pocket, augmented reality
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
~ Pew Internethttp://www.pewinternet.org/Presentations/2010/Nov/Opportunity-Online.aspx
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
The numbers might be higher, but there’s little investment in rural broadband.
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
AT&T is buying all the houses on the block, then they’ll put up a hotel…
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
Effects• Network effect: everybody gets your email; the
Internet becomes exponentially more useful and productive as adoption increases, at least for those who adopt.
• Down side: Unmanageable deluge of useful information.
• Even more unmanageable deluge of useLESS information - spam and noise (~90% of email is spam).
• The Internet grows more valuable, and “money changes everything” – consolidation, centralization, conglomeration.
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
Future
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
Future Scenarios: Network• Internet: Free and open network of networks,
end to end principle, “dumb network.” Facilitated by Freedom Box?
• Cable television: limited selections delivered with a high quality of service. Relatively high barrier to entry on the content side.
• Balkanized hybrid: walled gardens and pay walls plus low-bandwidth, lower-value everything else; providers and users pay for higher QoS.
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
Network Neutrality“Network neutrality (also net neutrality, Internet neutrality) is a buzzword used to describe a principle proposed for users' access to networks participating in the Internet. The principle advocates no restrictions by Internet service providers and governments on content, sites, platforms, the kinds of equipment that may be attached, and the modes of communication.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_neutrality
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
For less than $1,000, he could get his idea onto the Internet. He needed no permission from the network provider. He needed no clearance from Harvard to offer it to Harvard students. Neither with Yale, or Princeton, or Stanford. Nor with every other community he
invited in. Because the platform of the Internet is open and free, or in the language of the day, because it is a “neutral network,” a billion Mark Zuckerbergs have the opportunity to invent for the platform. And though there are crucial partners who are essential to bring the product to market, the cost of proving viability on this platform has dropped dramatically. You don’t even have to possess Zuckerberg’s technical genius to develop your own idea for the Internet today. Websites across the developing world deliver high quality coding to complement the very best ideas from anywhere. This is a platform that has made democratic innovation possible—and it was on the Facebook platform resting on that Internet platform that another Facebook co-founder, Chris Hughes, organized the most important digital movement for Obama, and that the film’s petty villain, Sean Parker, organized Causes, one of the most important tools to support nonprofit social missions.
~ Larry Lessig
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
How should we experience the Internet? Should our Interface with the world and its data be owned and controlled by corporations? Operated as public utilities? Or distributed?
What does it mean for a private, for-profit Facebook, Google, or Twitter to “own” a network effect, personal data for whole populations, core interface and infrastructure?
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
Freedom Box: a “privacy appliance” proposed by attorney and free software proponent Eben Moglen. A personal server running a free software operating system, with free applications designed to create and preserve personal privacy.
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
Questions• Identity: who has a right to your data? How do
you manage the manifestation and use of your identity online?
• Power: who has authority for a relationship? Example: vendor/customer – who has a right to the data, to manage the relationship?
• Abundance: how do you manage information and sustain an accurate world perspective with literally millions of potential information channels?
• Access/Bandwidth: what is the appropriate role/business of the broadband service provider?
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
Future Applications• Many distributed sites, platforms, and
applications, open architectures, data portability• Mobile and targeted applications• Curation and filtering: recasting the stockpile of
information in usable form • Google, Facebook, and Twitter rule: via these
platforms, people filter, find, and present content (with help from search and other tools).
• Digital media distribution: television and radio incorporated in the media mix. Bandwidth a potential issue.
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
Scenarios: Utopian?
• DIY home, media environment, life• Empowered patient• Empowered citizen• Sustainable communities• Networked transportation• Noosphere (global consciousness)• Singularity/Superintelligence
Jon Lebkowsky | [email protected]
Scenarios: Dystopian?• Cognitive automation vs jobs for humans• Outsourcing – moving jobs• Disruptive effects, rapid changes to dynamically
stable systems• Winner-take-all business models (network
effect/long tail)• Efficiency-borne reductions in redundancy and
competition• Information availability causing loss of individual
freedom• Network exclusion or “digital divide”
Thanks to David Isenberg, http://isen.com