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Agricultural trade and developing countries
Joseph W. Glauber, IFPRI
ABARES Outlook 2016
2 March 2016
Growth in global agricultural trade
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Bil USD
Source: WTO
Launch of Doha Round
Growth of South-South Ag Exports
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
South-South North-South
Bil USD
Source: UNCTAD
Growing share of developing country exports go to
other developing markets
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Exports to Developed Markets Exports to Developing Markets
Bil USD
Source: UNCTAD
Largest Developing Country Exporters
2013 Exports Billion USD
Change from 2009 Share to Developing
Markets
Brazil 84.6 +59% 66%
China 46.1 +65% 56%
India 41.8 +188% 79%
Argentina 40.6 +50% 74%
Indonesia 34.7 +67% 68%
Thailand 32.7 +53% 67%
Malaysia 26.5 +47% 76%
Mexico 22.0 +52% 12%
Ukraine 16.1 +83% 59%
Turkey 16.1 +58% 56%
World 1,502.7 +49% 39%
Source: Flake and Flake (2015) and UNCTAD (2015)
Domestic support levels
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Producer Subsidy Equivalent as percent of value of farm production
Source: OECD
Composition of domestic support
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
OECD Average
Tied to output Tied to inputs Decoupled from production
Source: OECD
Producer Subsidy Equivalents
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
PSE Coupled PSE
Source: OECD, calculations by author
Percent of value of production
Composition of Domestic Support 2014
Source: OECD
percent
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Brazil Russia Mexico China Turkey Indonesia Korea
Output Input other coupled decoupled
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
World
Growth of Agricultural Insurance Programs Premium volume
Source: Glauber 2015
$ billion
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
China US
Source: Glauber 2015
$ billion
China corn support
Source: Gale 2015
China corn
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000 Harvested area Ending stocks
Source: USDA, PSD database
Thous ha Thou tonnes
China cotton
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
USD/tonne
Source: MacDonald, Gale and Hansen (2015)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
20
00
/20
01
20
02
/20
03
20
04
/20
05
20
06
/20
07
20
08
/20
09
20
10
/20
11
20
12
/20
13
20
14
/20
15
Imports Ending stocks
Thou bales
Source: USDA PSD
World price
India grain stocks
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Rice Wheat Feed grains
WTO Domestic Support Disciplines
• AMS bindings for 32 countries (15 developed and 17 developing)
• De minimis rules for developing countries: 10% of current value of production (8.5% for China)
• Article 6.2 (all developing countries except China)
• Annex 2 (Green box)
Bound Total AMS
Country Million USD Country Million USD
Mexico 8,332 Vietnam 243
Russia* 4,400 Tajikistan 183
Korea 1,352 Morocco 88
Venezuela 1,131 Argentina 75
Brazil 912 Tunisia 48
Saudi Arabia 859 P. New Guinea 34
Ukraine* 578 Macedonia* 24
Thailand 571 Moldova* 20
Israel 569 Costa Rica 16
China Taipei 450 Jordan 2
Columbia 345 Montenegro* <1
South Africa 244
Source: Brink 2015 *Developed countries
Conclusions
• Increasing use of domestic support by emerging developing countries—cause for concern?
– Brink (2015) points out large policy space under de minimis
• Lack of transparency: reporting lags, some policies go unreported (crop insurance) or misreported (eg, amber under Annex 2, Art 6.2)
• Whither domestic support reform post-Nairobi? Will developing country use force countries back to negotiations?
