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JOURNAL OF

PSYCHOLOGY

1960 Part 3Val. XII

ON THE F AlLURE TO ELIMINATE HYPOTHESES IN

A CONCEPTUAL TASK

BY

P. c. WASON

From the .\fedical Research Council Industrial Psychology Research Group, University

College, London

This investigation examines the extent to \vhich intelligent young adults seek (i)confinning evidence alone (enumerative induction) or (ii) confirming and disconfinningtvidence (eliminative induction), in order to draw conclusions in a simple conceptual task.The experiment is designed so that use of confirming evidence alone will almost certainlylead to erroneous conclusions because (i) the correct concept is entailed by many moreobvious ones, and (ii) the universe of possible instances (numbers) is infinite.

Six out of 29 subjects reached the correct conclusion without previous incorrect ones,13 reached one incorrect conclusion, nine reached two or more incorrect conclusions, andone reached no conclusion. The results showed that those subjects, who reached two ormo~ incorrect conclusions, were unable, or unwilling to test their hypotheses. Theimplications are discussed in relation to scientific thinking.

INTRODUCTION

~ces1rom ~gnfi~ing evi~ce {Bacon's "induction by simple enumeration")cali obviously lead to conclusions because different hYPOth~~b;e-r.om-

~ti e same data. In their crudest form suCh -mre~-are apparent inthe -selection of facts to justify prejudices. In research merely confinning evidence

is clearly of limited value. For example; suppose that it is suggested that a deficit(1') of a particular substance in the blood is uniquely related to a distinctive symptomlv), (In logical terms, % is a "necessary-and-sufficient" condition for y,) Andsuppose that this hypothesis had been supported by confirming evidence alone, i.e.~'henever the deficit had been induced, the symptom had appeared {ignoring statisticalissues for the sake of simplification). It might then be assumed that the hypothesiswas tenable. But the evidence only allows the inference that % is a sufficient con-dition for y, that the deficit always leads to the symptom. To establish the postulatedrelation, there must also be, no disconfinning evidence-no ca~ of the symptomwithout the deficit. For if such a case were obtained, the dencit would not be a

necessary condition for the symptom, and the symptom would not be a sufficientcondition for the deficit. The hypothesis that either was a necessary-and-sufficientcondition for the other could be eliminated. The symptom would not be a reliablesign. Its absence \..'ould rule out the possibility of the deficit, but its presence would

be ambiguous.In general, scientific inferences are based on the principle of eliminating hypo-

theses. while provisionally accepting. only those which remain. Methodologically,such eliminative induction implies adequate controls so that both positive andnegative experimental results give information about the possible determinants ofa phenomenon.

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0007

140 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY

to thank Professor G. C. Drew, Dr. R. P. Kelvin and Mr. R. D. Shepherd for valuablecomments. Finally, I am indebted to my subjects for the great interest and enthusiasmwhich they expressed in the experiment.

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