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JP Morgan Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

JP Morgan Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006

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Packaging Corporation of America. JP Morgan Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006. Paul T. Stecko Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Packaging Corporation of America. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: JP Morgan  Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006

JP Morgan Basics & Industrials Conference

June 5, 2006

Packaging Corporation of America

Paul T. SteckoChairman and

Chief Executive Officer

Page 2: JP Morgan  Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006

2

Certain statements in this presentation are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include statements about our future financial condition, our industry and our business strategy. Statements that contain words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “expect”, “intend”, “estimate”, “hope” or similar expressions, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations of PCA.

Because forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, the plans, actions and actual results of PCA could differ materially. Among the factors that could cause plans, actions and results to differ materially from PCA’s current expectations are those identified under the caption “Risk Factors” in PCA’s Form 10K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and available at the SEC’s website at “www.sec.gov”.

Packaging Corporation of America

Page 3: JP Morgan  Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006

3

Pure Play in the Right Product

% of Revenues from Containerboard and Corrugated Products

Weyerhaeuser PCA InternationalPaper

Temple-InlandSmurfit-Stone

Koch / GP

97%

76%

58%

19% 18%15%

Note: Based on company press releases and PCA and analyst estimates

Page 4: JP Morgan  Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006

4

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006MarYTD

Export % Import %

Containerboard Imports and Exportsas a Percentage of Production

Source: AF & PA reports

Page 5: JP Morgan  Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006

5

Containerboard Capacity Growth (U.S. Only)

-3.0%

-1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

5.0%

7.0%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Source: AF & PA Capacity Survey. Includes permanent shutdowns announced after the survey and current indefinite shutdowns as of May 16, 2006.

Page 6: JP Morgan  Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006

6

-7.0%

-5.0%

-3.0%

-1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

5.0%

7.0%

9.0%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Industry Corrugated Products DemandPer Workday(2)

Year-over-Year% Change (1)

(1) Year-over-year change 2005 vs 2004 by month, and Jan. - April 2006(2) Source: Fiber Box Association

2005 2006

Page 7: JP Morgan  Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006

7

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1985 – 2004 Inventory 2005 Inventory

Total Industry Containerboard Inventories1985 - 2006

Source: FBA

2006 Inventory

Page 8: JP Morgan  Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006

8

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

Inventory Linerboard Prices

Industry Containerboard Inventory & Pricing

Sources: Industry Inventory, Fiber Box Association and American Forest & Paper Association; Linerboard Prices, Industry Publications

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Price Per Ton000 Tons

Page 9: JP Morgan  Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006

9

Mill2005 Production

(000 tons)% of

ProductionLinerboard

Counce, TN 966 41%Valdosta, GA 475 20%

Total Linerboard 1,441 61%

Corrugating MediumTomahawk, WI 531 23%Filer City, MI 375 16%

Total Medium 906 39%Total System 2,347 100%

Mill System

* Counce

* Tomahawk

* Filer City

Valdosta *

• Low Cost

• Primarily Virgin Fiber

• Fiber and Energy Flexibility

• Low Natural Gas Usage

• Lightweight Capability

• High Integration Level

Page 10: JP Morgan  Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006

10

$/Ton

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J

Recycled Fiber Prices HistoricallyHave Been Very Volatile

HK

JAP

Oth

er

63%19% U.S.EUR

China’s Sources of OCC (2003)

Source: Industry publications for OCC pricing excluding delivery costs

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Page 11: JP Morgan  Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006

11

100% 100%

59%55%

38% 36%30%

23%19%

Limited Exposure to Potential IncreasesIn Wastepaper Prices

Wastepaper Utilization

Source: Industry publications and PCA estimates

Solvay Norampac Temple-Inland Koch / GP International Paper

Visy Weyerhaeuser Smurfit-Stone PCA

Page 12: JP Morgan  Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006

12

3%

18%

44%

35%

Mill Purchased Fuel Mix

Nat

ura

l Gas

Bark

Coal

Oil

4Q ’05 Actual2000

36%

4%

27%

33%

Natural Gas

Bark

Coal

Oil

Page 13: JP Morgan  Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006

13

Corrugated Products

Differentiated Operating Strategy

• Stand-alone profit centers

• Value-added products

• Two-thirds local accounts

• Over 8,300 customers

• Top 30 accounts represent

only about 30% of sales

Page 14: JP Morgan  Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006

14Corrugated plantsSheet/specialty plants

Corrugated Products System

Oxnard

Garland

Phoenix

Salt Lake City Windsor

NorthglennDenver

El Paso

Waco

Plano

Los Angeles

OmahaMarshalltown

MinneapolisGolden Valley

Muskogee

Colby

Jackson

Winter Haven

Jacksonville

Opelika

Atlanta

NewberryHonea Path

RutherfordtonMorgantonKnoxville

GoldsboroSalisbury

High Point

Roanoke

RichmondHarrisonburg

Baltimore

Northampton

Chelmsford

Watertown

Syracuse

Buffalo

Conrad

Milwaukee

Burlington

Vincennes

Gas City

AllentownTrexlertown

LancasterHanover

Edmore

GrandvillePlymouth

Akron

Pittsburgh

Middletown Newark

Ashland

South Gate

Arlington

Donna

Fairfield

Franklin

Acorn

Jackson

OliveBranch

St. Louis

Miami

Page 15: JP Morgan  Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006

15

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Corrugated Products Growth

Cu

mu

lati

ve %

Ch

ang

e

Source: FBA Data for Industry

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1Q ‘06

PCA Industry

Page 16: JP Morgan  Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006

16

Debt Structure

Asset Securitization $ 109 5.10 October 2006 (Receivables Revolving Credit Facility)

Term Loan 39 6.23 July 2008

5-Year Notes 150 4.38 August 2008

10-Year Notes 400 5.75 August 2013

Total $ 698 5.38

Revolver (2) $ 100 July 2008

Cash On Hand $ 68

(1) Excludes $2.8 million of unamortized debt discount related to the 5-year and 10-year notes.(2) Undrawn as of March 31, 2006.

Amount ($MM) (1)

Cash InterestRate (%) Maturity

As of March 31, 2006

Page 17: JP Morgan  Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006

17

Temple Inland 2.6

Weyerhaeuser 2.7

International Paper 4.4

Smurfit Stone 9.7

Temple Inland 47%

Weyerhaeuser 48%

International Paper 61%

Smurfit Stone 72%

Debt / Adjusted EBITDA(2) / Debt / Adjusted EBITDA(2) Adjusted Interest (2) Total Capital

Temple Inland 6.2

Weyerhaeuser 6.1

International Paper 4.2

Smurfit Stone 1.4

(1) Debt / Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA / Adjusted Interest, and Debt / Total Capital are ratios commonly used by the ratings agencies. Total capital is calculated as total debt plus minority interest plus shareholders’ equity. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted interest are calculated for the twleve-month period ended March 31, 2006 and both exclude unusual or non-recurring items.

(2) Adjustments ($ in millions) were made to the following companies’ reported income before interest and taxes per their SEC filings or press releases to eliminate unusual or non-recurring

items.

International Paper 134.0 Temple Inland 66.0 Smurfit Stone 334.0 Weyerhaeuser 1,417.0

Weyerhaeuser’s reported interest was adjusted to exclude the loss from early debt extinguishment of $36.0 million and income received from the sale of an investment of $115.0 million. International Paper’s reported interest was adjusted to exclude interest income related to a tax audit agreement and collection of a note receivable of $54.0 million. No other adjustments were made to the other companies’ reported interest.

(3) PCA’s adjusted EBITDA is calculated as follows:

Income before interest and taxes, as reported for the period $ 111.1Less: STV Dividends (11.5)Add: plant closure and severance costs 2.6

Adjusted EBIT 102.1Add: Depreciation, depletion and amortization as reported the period 159.0

Adjusted EBITDA $ 261.1

Source: Company SEC filings and press releases

PCA (3) 2.7

PCA (3) 9.0

PCA 51%

Strong Credit Profile March 2006 Data(1)

Page 18: JP Morgan  Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006

18

Secondary Offering and Share Repurchase December 2005

MDP Ownership of PCA Stock 44.1 40.8% 59.2%

Secondary Offering of PCA Common Stock by MDP (17.8) $21.50

PCA Common Stock ShareRepurchase from MDP (4.5) $20.69

MDP Remaining Ownership after 21.8 21.0% 79.0%Secondary and Share Repurchase

Madison Dearborn Partners (MDP)

Million % of Total Price / Public Market Shares PCA Shares Share Float

Note: As a result of share repurchase and retirement, basic shares outstanding were reduced from 108.2 million shares to 103.7 million shares.

Page 19: JP Morgan  Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006

19

Dividend Yield (1)

(1) Based on share prices as of June1, 2006 and announced annual dividend rates

4.6%

3.1%2.9%

2.3%

0.0%0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

PCA WY IP TIN SSCC

Page 20: JP Morgan  Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006

20

• Single Business Focus - Operational Excellence

• Grow Corrugated Products Volume- Internal Growth

- Acquisitions

• Enhance Shareholder Value Through Financial and Strategic Flexibility

Strategy

Page 21: JP Morgan  Basics & Industrials Conference June 5, 2006