JRODOS as an example for a model decision Support System ...Mar 19, 2015 · Support the preparation of countermeasure strategies in the various phases of an emergency and the recovery

KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Large-scale Research Center of the Helmholtz Association

Institute of Nuclear and Energy Technologies

www.kit.edu

JRODOS as an example for a model decision Support System for nuclear emergencies

Workshop Fukushima University, 19. March 2015

Wolfgang Raskob, Claudia Landman, Dmytro Trybushnyi Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

JRodos - A modern DSS 2 Fukushima, 19.03.2015 JRodos team IKET(KIT)

Outlines

Phases of a nuclear accident, from the emergency management's point of view

What a decision support system can deliver to decision making teams in case of a severe nuclear accident

JRodos as an example for a modern DSS Tasks, input data, output Basic model chain Models for special purposes

JRodos users; an emergency centre with RODOS


Phases of a severe NPP accident

Transition phase

Long-term post-accident phase

During the event After the release

Accident phase Recovery phase

Hours / days / weeks Days / weeks / months Weeks / months/ years / decades

Early measures

Cancellation of early measures Preparation of long-term measures

Rehabilitation of area for returning to normal living

Release phase

Threat phase


Threat phase: Available information Alert message (not in Chernobyl) Status of NPP (not fully understood, partly unknown, unknown...)

Inferred potential evolution of the accident First estimations of potential source term (uncertain: amount of and timing of release)

Meteorological data and radiological data On-site measurements of weather; confirmation that a release is not already occurring Prognostic meteorological data (if available) Uncertain: Future development of weather, in particular when discrepancies between measurement and weather forecast

Preparedness: Emergency plans and procedures, listings of teams and equipment etc.


Threat phase: Support provided by a DSS

Collects all data in one place and provides information in a consistent way Performs dose assessments Provides results in terms of maps and time functions on activity concentrations, doses, dose rates Proposes area to initiate early countermeasures, simulates early countermeasures to estimate the performance of individual or combined measures


Release phase: Available information Status of NPP and potential evolution of the accident Source term knowledge

(best) Release occurs exclusively via monitored escape route (some) Recordings from external monitors close to the building (some help) or farther away (considerable uncertainties) Little to none (disasters)

Dose rates and other data from radiological monitoring On-site meteorological data and prognostic weather data

Emergency management requires prognostic information Activity concentrations, doses and potential areas for decisions about early phase and early late phase (e.g. food) countermeasures in the environs (~100 km) of the accident location


Release phase: Support available from DSS As for the pre-release phase

Data collection, simulation of activity concentrations and countermeasures (early)

Two different types of information: Measurements and predictions

Bringing both together is important, because: Measurements only represent a situation at one time at one given location ("on-site")

Required are data representing larger time periods and areas

Data assimilation can combine both monitoring and modelling – so far not operational


On-site and prognostic weather data - Example 1

Results for a NPP in hilly terrain in Germany Statistics of differences between numerical weather forecast and Neckarwestheim data for the first 11 hours of a 48 hour prognosis Statistical analysis period less than 3 months 0 90 180 270 360

Measured wind direction [deg]

0

90

180

270

360

NWP

wind

dire

ctio

n [d

eg],

0 to

11

hour

s fo

reca

st Wind speed at 40 m > 3 m/sWind speed at 40 m < 3 m/s

Neckarwestheim, 58 m.


On-site and prognostic weather data - Example 2

Calculation with wind field derived with weather data from one station near Fukushima (with approved source term)

Total Cs from monitoring http://energy.gov/news/10194.html

Total Cs calculated from BfS with RODOS model ATSTEP


Same simulation with numerical weather

Cs deposition from monitoring http://energy.gov/news/10194.html U.S. Department of Energy

Cs-137 only calculated from BfS with RODOS model ATSTEP, using data from mesoscale meteorological Weather Research Forecast model WRF


Post-release phase: Available information

Status of the NPP (release has stopped)

Radiological monitoring (radiological situation is stable) Identify nuclide vector

Identify hot spots

Confirm footprint of the cloud

Supervise doses in the population and in rescue teams

Prognostic information is still needed Time evolution of activity concentrations, doses and potential areas to initiate late phase countermeasures (relocation, decontamination, food banning) wherever necessary


Post-release phase: Support from a DSS As for the other phases

Data collection, simulation of activity concentrations and countermeasures (early and late)

Support monitoring (in inhabited and agricultural areas) Data assimilation (in inhabited and agricultural areas) Simulation of recovery phase actions Evaluation of actions to identify the most effective ones


Use of a DSS in the preparedness phase

Possible areas for application Support the preparation of countermeasure strategies in the various phases of an emergency and the recovery

Check compliance with the new ICRP recommendations

Support exercises

Support the training of emergency staff

Recalculation of historic events

Support stakeholder engagement

Development of scenarios for the discussion

Use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) tools for structuring the problems


Key features of RODOS Real-time On-line Decision Support system

Multi-user operation in national/regional emergency centres for off-site nuclear emergency management

Provision of information for decision-making

on local / national / regional / European scales,

in the early and later phases of an accident,

for all relevant emergency actions and countermeasures.

Wide IT applicability - HP-UX and Linux (RODOS), Microsoft Windows, Linux and Mac OS (JRodos)


JRodos: Tasks, input data, output

Radiological Monitoring Data

data base simulation

of counter-measures and con-

sequences

evaluation of counter-

measure strategies

simulation of

radiological situation

Ranked List of Feasible Strategies of Long-Term Counter-measures (MAVT)

Areas, Organ Doses, People affected by Countermeasures, Health Effects, Effort, Costs

Environmental Contamination of Air, Ground, and Food, Potential Doses

Meteorological and Release Data


Assessment of radiological situation - JRodos models


(Basic models) Near-range model chain: Meteorological Pre-Processor

3-dimensional mass-consistent wind vector-field with vertical profile; PG-stability, mixing height, Monin-Obuchov Length, friction velocity, precipitation fields, atmospheric resistances (Demokritos, Athens)

2. Data node (Met. tower or NWP - Data grid point)

1. Data node (Met. tower or NWP - Data grid point)


(Basic models) Near-range ADM models

t1 t2

t3

t4

TIC

ATSTEP RIMPUFF DIPCOT

Several models for atmospheric dispersion and deposition in the near range (historical):

Gauß-"puff"-models ATSTEP (KIT, Karlsruhe) and RIMPUFF (Risø, Roskilde) For complex Terrain: Particle model DIPCOT (Demokritos, Athens) For powerful servers: Lagrange Particle Model LASAT (with licence)


(Basic models) Early countermeasure simulation model EmerSim (sheltering, evacuation, iodine tablets)

Data base for national dose criteria and intervention levels Limited simulation of early health effects and economic consequences

Example Area potentially affected by sheltering, INEX1P2 scenario, German criteria


(Special models) Later phase models

ADM (near / far

range)

Monitoring data

Data assimilation

FDMT Areas where any of the European Commissions

maximum permitted levels of radioactive contamination for marketed food are exceeded

ERMIN European model for inhabited areas

(decontamination, relocation)

AgriCP Countermeasures in agricultural areas


ERMIN and AgriCP - Main characteristics

Contain dynamic activity transport models as an integral part; this enables a flexibility in the simulation of the effects of late-phase actions on contamination and dose levels and the associated waste and costs that was previously not possible

Cover practically any combination of measures described in the “EURANOS Inhabited Area Handbook” and “EURANOS Handbook for Assisting the Management of Contaminated Food Production Systems”


(Special models) Hydrological model chain HDM

4

2

1

67 3

5

4

2

1

67 3

5

2D - Model Water and sediment transport in rivers

Watershed runoff/pollution wash-off

Compartment model Radionuclide transport in water and fish

2D - Model Radionuclide transport in in shallow reservoirs, lakes, coastal waters

3D - Model Radionuclide transport in complex water bodies

HDM

RETRACE

RIVTOX

COASTOX

THREETOX

POSEIDON

FDMA Aquatic food chains

ADM

Data Base

JRODOS

HDM


Evaluation and ranking of optional countermeasure strategies

Elucidation of problem structure by hierarchically modelling of decision criteria, and Balancing of benefits and disadvantages by accounting for constraints (feasibility, public acceptability...), preferences of decision makers, and socio-psychological and political aspects

Evaluation of measures outside RODOS

overall goal

overall objective

logistics

dose

sub-objectives

collective dose saved

individual dose saved

waste

work effort

attributes

strategy y

strategy x

strategy z

alternatives


JRodos software structure


JRodos users world wide (2014)

RODOS installation

RODOS user - planned

RODOS local users

2013 Agreement signed with National Nuclear Energy Agency of Indonesia


German Central Rodos Installation

RZ

SH

NI

HE

BY

BW

BE

NW

CH A

NL

F

DWD

17 Nuclear power plants

4 Research reactors

3 Nuclear facilities

8 Near boarder NPPs

RODOS Center

realised KFÜ Data transfer:

in preparation

Numerical weather prognoses data


RODOS users and user access types in Germany

BE

BMU

BW

NW

RODOS Zentrale

HE

ZdB DWD

B-Users: Can carry out private RODOS-calculations

(Internet)

A-Users: Can carry out

authorized RODOS-calculations

(ISDN/Internet)

C-Users: Access to public RODOS-results

(Internet)

TH

SH

BY

NI NL BB

SN

ST

MV


Future development

Improvement of the atmospheric and aquatic dispersion models within the European project PREPARE Support of source term reconstruction via the usage of atmospheric dispersion models and dose monitors around the NPP Identification of research topics in the frame of the NERIS Platform and RODOS Users Group (RUG)

Strategic research agenda with topics such as uncertainty and usage of a DSS Requests of users via the RUG


Conclusions

JRODOS is applicable in all phases of an emergency It contains models for the atmospheric and aquatic pathways It can be installed centrally and used remotely from as many users as necessary – dependent on the power of the servers in the RODOS centre Customisation is possible to national conditions applying national criteria for evacuation, sheltering and iodine distribution Customisation of the foodchain model to Chinese conditions will start 2015 System is freely available and KIT offers support contracts


Thank you very much for your attention

Questions?

https://resy5.iket.kit.edu/

Documents

JRODOS as an example for a model decision Support System ...Mar 19, 2015 · Support the preparation of countermeasure strategies in the various phases of an emergency and the recovery