JSOMA EXERCISEGallant Sentry

19 May 2015

Segment #4

Version 3Exercise REL- All

Scenario:Tensions are high between Russia and NATO over incursions and provocations in vicinity of Narva, Estonia. Demonstrations (mostly peaceful) on both sides are taking place on a weekly basis. Increased presence by Estonian Police in Narva in attempt to maintain control of an increasingly divided population. Naval and air patrols along border and SLOC increased. Probes along borders becoming more frequent, no violence reported thus far. Military exercises conducted by both actors.

Estonian Intent:Retain control within its borders without provoking a Russian military response. Continue to host NATO interoperability exercises to deter Russian aggression.

Enemy Focus:Ethnic Russian organization within Narva begins. Process to recall politicians who are not deemed “pro-Russian” by citizens. Narva government begins to assert itself leading to a provincial vote for independence and eventual alignment with Russia.

Takeaways: Mounting tensions Increased military

activities Vote for annexation

SEGMENT 4: Escalation of Tensions

Version 3Exercise REL- All

1 - Press release-Soviet intelligence operatives suspected of fostering anti-Estonian sentiments in Narva

2- Press release-New Narvan government holds recall elections of local politicians- Press release-Russian Support for Narva Recall Elections 

3 - Press release-Narva holding independence election- Press release-Russian Support for Independence Referendum

4 - Press release-Independence successful- Press release-Narva votes for Independence

5 - On call release of news report with video footage of Russian troops invading Narva and being welcomed by citizens

Sequence of Events

Version 3Exercise REL- Control

Group

Timeline2 43 51

0900 0930 0950 1030 NLT 1100

1200 INDEX

Western Press Releases1-Press release-Soviet intelligence operatives suspected of fostering anti-Estonian sentiments in Narva

 

Sources within the Narva region have reported unidentified persons organizing anti-Estonian sentiments within the heavily ethnic-Russian population. These same sources have stated that they suspect these unidentified persons are Russian intelligence agents. Russian officials have denied any involvement in the region.

 

When asked about the reports, Estonian officials have stated they will not tolerate any intrusion into Estonian affairs by any external actors. They further stated that they would take any and all reasonable actions to prevent such activities.

 

While they haven’t been confirmed at this point, the reports have been compared to Russia’s involvement in Crimea and their use of “little green men” to foster the same anti-Ukrainian/pro-Russian sentiments. Crimea subsequently voted itself independent of Ukraine and is occupied by Russian forces.

 

2-Press release-New Narvan government holds recall elections of local politicians

 

An organized movement of Narvan citizens has emerged with the stated aim of recalling local politicians who they claim “do not represent the citizens of the Narva region”. It has been noted by outside observers that the politicians who are not being recalled all have strong Russian ties or are sympathetic to the Russian government.

 

The group is attempting to hold elections as soon as possible. According to Estonian law, a politician may be recalled with a large enough percentage of vote by the citizens of a region. The Estonian government has vowed to certify any election results and has threatened to nullify any results if any foreign involvement is confirmed.

 

JSOMA EXERCISE GALLANT SENTRY

Version 3Exercise REL-

NATO/EU/US/EST

Western Press Releases3-Press release-Narva holding independence election

 

Rumors have spread of an impending vote for autonomy if the recall elections are successful in replacing pro-Estonian politicians in the Narva regions. All questioned in the region have denied the rumors but independent sources have stated with certainty that the vote will take place immediately after the recall elections if they are successful at replacing the recalled officials.

 

4-Press release-Independence successful

 

The recall movement in Narva held successful elections yesterday, effectively recalling all politicians who “do not represent the citizens of the Narva region”. These elections resulted in the removal of pro-Estonian politicians who were replaced with ethnic Russians who have all been openly supportive of the government in Moscow and critical of the Estonian national government.

 

Within hours of the election results being tabulated, the new government held a vote in which it immediately voted to secede from Estonia and make Narva its own autonomous region. This vote was followed by a formal request to the Russian government for inclusion as a Russian territory. The Russian government has vowed to look at the request and is expected to approve it in the coming days.

 

The Estonian government has disavowed the election results as having been orchestrated by Russian intelligence agents who were long suspected of stirring up anti-Estonian sentiment in the Narva region. The Estonian government has stated the election results are null and void and will assert control over the disputed region “by any means necessary”.

JSOMA EXERCISE GALLANT SENTRY

Version 3Exercise REL-

NATO/EU/US/EST

Russian Press ReleasesJSOMA EXERCISE GALLANT SENTRY

Version 3Exercise REL- RU

1. Russian Support for Narva Recall Elections 

The Russian government voices support for the Estonian province Narva: The local government in Narva has requested to recall elections and hold new elections in response to the failures of local government officials in Narva to represent the province and its citizens. Residents of Narva claim that the currently elected officials are corrupt and do not represent the majority in Narva.  

 

The Russian government references the legitimate 1993 elections that annexed Narva from Estonia as an example where the Estonian government repressed legitimate local elections in support of Estonian puppet leaders in the ethnically Russian province of Narva.  What actions will the Estonian government take this time?  

 

2.  Russian Support for Independence Referendum

In light of the recent local elections held in Narva, Narva is now holding elections across the province for independence from Estonia.  The recent Estonian imposed citizen requirements, population control measures, and national language policies have repressed the ethnic Russians in Estonia. Narva is currently 93% ethnic Russian and has always considered themselves part of Russia. The Russian people support this move for independence by the people of Narva as the newly elected local government in Narva represents the marginalized ethnic Russians in Estonia. The Russian government welcomes the independence of Narva and looks forward to fostering relations with Narva in the future.

 

3. Narva votes for Independence

The people have spoken.  Narva conducted successful elections, voting for independence from Estonia.  Immediately upon Narva’s successful vote for independence, Narva officially requested that they become part of Russia, rejoining the once repressed and marginalized ethnic Russian populace to the motherland. 

JSOMA EXERCISE GALLANT SENTRY

• The Estonian city of Narva held elections recently deciding whether to secede from Estonia and grant itslef independence. The much anticipated election results were announced today with the new government claiming its independence. The first act of the newly independent Narvan region was to request to become a satellite state of Russia. Russia welcomed the newly independent Narva and proceeded to move into the province along Highway E320 to Highway E264 forming a barrier from the Narva Bay in the north to Peipsi Lake in the south. The Russians have placed one mechanized infantry brigade along this line effectively severing the Narvan province in half. More Russian forces are arriving by the day. Narvan citizens are further bolstering Russian security forces.

• The Estonian government does not recognize these elections and has called this an act of war by the Russians and is calling on immediate withdrawal of all Russian forces. NATO is calling for restraint and immediate talks to resolve the situation before an escalation of hostilities.

• The Russian government has stated that it views these elections as democratic and legitimate. It further stated it will protect Russian citizens wherever they find them.

• :02 Title Screen• Visual: Estonian News Network Graphic• Audio: (Estonian Announcer) “Breaking news from your

Estonian News Network”

• Length: Time to read script below • Visual: Videos at links above• Audio: English, American broadcaster

• Voice over video• Video:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DImhE9FLAvg

• Alt Video: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kpYyPKwzS0Q

ENN LOGO

Exercise REL- Control Group Version 3

Confidential Injects

• To Estonia: Estonian intelligence has confirmed presence of Russian intelligence agents in Narva. These Russian agents are organizing anti-Estonian movements by use of monetary payments, targeted violence, and bribery.

• To US: Satellite imagery has confirmed the movement of two Russian Armored Divisions to with 20 km of Estonian border in the Narva region.

• To US: US forces are not to confront Russian forces if they cross into the Narva region. All US forces must leave Narva immediately and will not go back into he region until ordered by CENTCOM CDR.

• To Russia: President Putin has ordered the Russian force to move into Narva and secure our Russian brothers from the Estonian aggression; troops shall not move past Highway E264.

Version 3Exercise REL-

Control Group

Timeline/Final Thoughts

• Timeline-Press release 1 will be issued at the beginning of the day. The remaining press releases will be released at approximately 0945 in sequential order. This is due to the timeline on Day 3.

• Final release will be a video news report showing Russian troops entering Narva being hailed as liberators by Narva citizens. This will be released if the Russian delegation makes the decision to enter troops into Narva.

JSOMA EXERCISE GALLANT SENTRY

Version 3Exercise REL-

Control Group