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PROYECCIONES CLIMÁTICAS DE UN CONJUNTO DE MODELOS CLIMÁTICOS REGIONALES (RCMS) PARA EL PIRINEO: ANÁLISIS DE INCERTIDUMBRE E IMPACTOS ESPERADOS. JUAN IGNACIO LÓPEZ MORENO SERGIO M. VICENTE SERRANO DPT. PROCESOS GEOAMBIENTALES Y CAMBIO GLOBAL INSTITUTO PIRENAICO DE ECOLOGÍA, C.S.I.C. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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PROYECCIONES CLIMÁTICAS DE UN CONJUNTO DE MODELOS CLIMÁTICOS REGIONALES (RCMS) PARA EL PIRINEO: ANÁLISIS DE INCERTIDUMBRE E IMPACTOS ESPERADOS
JUAN IGNACIO LÓPEZ MORENOSERGIO M. VICENTE SERRANODPT. PROCESOS GEOAMBIENTALES Y CAMBIO GLOBALINSTITUTO PIRENAICO DE ECOLOGÍA, C.S.I.C.
STUDY OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE IN PYRENEES
- IT REMAINED UNSTUDIED- COMPLEX AREA FOR REPRODUCING CLIMATIC CONDITIONS: GOOD TEST FOR RCMS- IT IS A VALUABLE ECOLOGICAL SITE- POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE AND WATER RESOURCES AVAILABILITY
OBJECTIVE:-TO ASESS THE POSSIBLE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTIONS-TO ANALYSE THE MAGNITUDE AND SPATIAL PATTERNS OF EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE IN PYRENEES-TO CONDUCT IMPACT ANALYSIS
6 RCMS FROM PRUDENCE PROJECT: DMI, HC, METNO, ICTP, SMHI, UCM
Generalized Additive Models (GAMs)
ANNUAL PRECIPITATION
MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE
1.1 CREATION OF LAYERS OF REFERENCE CLIMATOLOGIES (1961-1990) FROM LOCAL OBSERVATIONS: Precip., Tmax., Tmin.,Tavg. At annual and seasonal basis
1- VALIDATION OF RCMs FOR THE CONTROL PERIOD
1.2 COMPARISON OF RCMSCONTROL RUNS (1961-1990) OF RCMS WITH REFERENCE CLIMATOLOGIES
REFERENCE ANNUAL PRECIPITATION
REFERENCE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE MODELLED BY RCMS
ANNUAL PRECIPITATION MODELLED BY RCMS
1- VALIDATION OF RCMs FOR THE CONTROL PERIOD
1.2 COMPARISON OF CONTROL RUNS (1961-1990) OF RCMS WITH REFERENCE CLIMATOLOGIES
P1
P2
P3
P4
PA
T1
T2
T3
T4
TA
Error (ºC)Error (%)
P1
P2
P3
P4
PA
T1
T2
T3
T4
TA
Error (ºC)Error (%)
P1
P2
P3
P4
PA
T1
T2
T3
T4
TA
Error (ºC)Error (%)
P1
P2
P3
P4
PA
T1
T2
T3
T4
TA
Error (ºC)Error (%)P1
P2
P3
P4
PA
T1
T2
T3
T4
TA
Error (ºC)Error (%)
P1
P2
P3
P4
PA
T1
T2
T3
T4
TA
Error (ºC)Error (%)
P1
P2
P3
P4
PA
T1
T2
T3
T4
TA
Error (ºC)Error (%)
P1
P2
P3
P4
PA
T1
T2
T3
T4
TA
Error (ºC)Error (%)
1- VALIDATION OF RCMs FOR THE CONTROL PERIOD
Annual precipitation Annual temperature
P1
P2
P3
P4
PA
T1
T2
T3
T4
TA
Error (ºC)Error (%)
P1
P2
P3
P4
PA
T1
T2
T3
T4
TA
Error (ºC)Error (%)
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
1.2 COMPARISON OF CONTROL RUNS (1961-1990) OF RCMS WITH REFERENCE CLIMATOLOGIES
1- VALIDATION OF RCMs FOR THE CONTROL PERIOD
1.2 COMPARISON OF CONTROL RUNS (1961-1990) OF RCMS WITH REFERENCE CLIMATOLOGIES
1- VALIDATION OF RCMs FOR THE CONTROL PERIOD
MBE MAE MBE MAE MBE MAE MBE MAE
Winter -0,19 0,26 0,30 0,88 1,57 2,01 1,11 1,26
Spring 0,03 0,21 -0,45 1,10 0,97 1,21 0,27 1,16
Summer 0,08 0,26 0,22 1,18 1,46 1,58 0,85 1,38
Autumn -0,08 0,23 -0,20 0,83 1,37 1,50 0,61 1,19
Annual -0,04 0,24 -0,04 1,00 1,34 1,58 0,71 1,25
PRECIPITATION TMAX. TMIN. TAVG.
2. MAGNITUDE OF THE PROJECTED CHANGES
COMPARISON OF CONTROL AND A2 AND B2 SCENARIOS RUNS IN ORDER TO ASSESS THE INTENSITY AND THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE
Change (%)Change (ºC)
P1
P2
P3
P4
PA
T1
T2
T3
T4
TA
Change (%)Change (ºC)
P1
P2
P3
P4
PA
T1
T2
T3
T4
TA
Change (%)Change (ºC)
P1
P2
P3
P4
PA
T1
T2
T3
T4
TA
Change (%)Change (ºC)
P1
P2
P3
P4
PA
T1
T2
T3
T4
TA
Change (%)Change (ºC)
P1
P2
P3
P4
PA
T1
T2
T3
T4
TA
Change (%)Change (ºC)
P1
P2
P3
P4
PA
T1
T2
T3
T4
TA
Change in annual precipitation (A2) Change in annual temperature (A2)
Change precipitation (A2) Change in temperature (A2)
Change (%)Change (ºC)
P1
P2
P3
P4
PA
T1
T2
T3
T4
TA
Change (%)Change (ºC)
P1
P2
P3
P4
PA
T1
T2
T3
T4
TA
Change (%)Change (ºC)
P1
P2
P3
P4
PA
T1
T2
T3
T4
TA
Change (%)Change (ºC)
P1
P2
P3
P4
PA
T1
T2
T3
T4
TA
Change (%)Change (ºC)
P1
P2
P3
P4
PA
T1
T2
T3
T4
TA
Change (%)Change (ºC)
P1
P2
P3
P4
PA
T1
T2
T3
T4
TA
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
2. MAGNITUDE OF THE PROJECTED CHANGES
COMPARISON OF CONTROL AND A2 AND B2 SCENARIOS RUNS IN ORDER TO ASSESS THE INTENSITY AND THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE
2. MAGNITUDE OF THE PROJECTED CHANGES
COMPARISON OF CONTROL AND A2 AND B2 SCENARIOS RUNS IN ORDER TO ASSESS THE INTENSITY AND THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE
A2 B2 A2 B2 A2 B2 A2 B2
Winter 1,45 -0,24 3,05 1,80 3,08 1,78 3,07 1,79
Spring -18,39 -6,88 3,17 2,01 2,82 1,77 2,99 1,89
Summer -43,71 -38,40 5,91 4,79 5,12 4,02 5,51 4,41
Autumn -7,05 -9,33 4,41 2,98 4,19 2,83 4,30 2,91
Annual -14,80 -10,73 4,16 2,90 3,81 2,61 3,99 2,75
PRECIPITATION TMAX. TMIN. TAVG.
3. STUDIES OF IMPACTS
3.2 CLIMATIC WATER BALANCE
Expected change on surface with positive annual climatic water balance (mm):1960/1990 → 2070/2100
1960-1990(63.975km2)
2070-2100B2 (39.900 km-2)
2070-2100A2 (32.625 km-2)
3. STUDIES OF IMPACTS
3.3 Snow accumulation
Observed climate Modified climate
A2 scenario, central Pyrenees at 2060 m a.s.l
3. STUDIES OF IMPACTS
3.3 Snow accumulation
MSWE (mm) Date of MSWE (days) Duration of snowpack (days)
units percentage units percentage units percentage
MSWE -245 mm 58.70% -211 mm 50.30% -225 mm 53.80%
Date of MSWE -34 days 21.80% -35 days 22.60% -32 days 20.50%
DSP -74 days 41.70% -67 days 37.70% -69 days 39.20%
units percentage units percentage units percentage
MSWE -245 mm 58.70% -211 mm 50.30% -225 mm 53.80%
Date of MSWE -34 days 21.80% -35 days 22.60% -32 days 20.50%
DSP -74 days 41.70% -67 days 37.70% -69 days 39.20%
Change in temperature and precipitation
Change in all variables
A2 scenario, central Pyrenees at 2060 m a.s.l
3. STUDIES OF IMPACTS
3.3 Snow accumulation
Projected change (HIRHAM model) in snow accumulation in the Pyrenees for B2 and A2 emission scenarios
SRES B2 SRES A2
1500 m
2000 m
2500 m
3000 mNN
32 %
18 %
8%
5 %
8 %
5 %
70 %
46 %
22%
11 %
3. STUDIES OF IMPACTS
3.3 Snow accumulation
Projected change (HIRHAM model) in snowpack duration in the Pyrenees for B2 and A2 emission scenarios
SRAS B2 SRAS A2
44 %
20 %
14 %
11 %
78 %
49 %
23 %
10 %
1500 m
2000 m
2500 m
3000 m
FUTURE RESEARCH
To use transient RCMs at higher spatial resolution (ENSEMBLES and ACQWA projects)
Potential impacts of climate change on water resources availability (hydrological modelling)
More information in…..
-López-Moreno, J.I., Goyette, S. and Beniston M. (2008). Climate change prediction over complex areas: spatial variability of uncertainties and expected changes over the Pyrenees from a set of regional climate models. International Journal of Climatology 28 (11): 1535-1550.
-López-Moreno, J.I., Goyette, S., Beniston, M., Alvera, B. (2008). Sensitivity of the snow energy balance to climatic changes: implications for the evolution of snowpack in the Pyrenees in the 21st century. Climate Research 36: 206-217.
-López-Moreno, J.I., García-Ruiz, J.M. and Beniston, M. (2008). Environmental Change and water management in the Pyrenees. Facts and future perspectives for Mediterranean mountains. Global and Planetary Change 66 (3-4): 300-312.
-López-Moreno, J.I. and Beniston, M. (en prensa). Daily intensity precipitation for the 21st century: seasonal changes over an Atlantic-Mediterranean gradient in the Pyrenean mountains. Theoretical and Applied Climatology.