June 12, 2006JOSEPH ROMM

jromm@cap-e.com

Global Warming:A Boost to Nuclear Power

The Boot to Nuclear Hydrogen

CLIMATE BOTTOM LINE

Most warming goes into oceans & poles Super-hurricanes are now the norm 10 more years of inaction = 4° to 6+° F warming

Greenland goes (20+ feet of sea level rise) 20 years = 6° to 10+° F warming

Serious Antarctic ice loss (80+ feet) Sea level rise 6 to 12 inches per decade possible

June-Nov Sea Surface Temperature and Tropical Storms1880-2003, 5-year running mean

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Nu

mb

er o

f T

rop

ical

Sto

rms

-1.6

-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

Atl

anti

c H

urr

ican

e-F

orm

ing

Reg

ion

°F

T

emp

erat

ure

An

om

aly

(vs.

196

1-19

90)

Number of Tropical Storms Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly

At 550 ppm, 60% of top permafrost goes.

At 690, 90% (lt. blue) (Lawrence, NCAR, 2005)

Tundra C ≈ Atmo C

Much of it CH4

Not in IPCC models

TUNDRA FEEDBACK

TIME FOR DELAY HAS RUN OUT

We’re at 380 ppm CO2, rising 2+ ppm/yr If 500 & rising in 2050, plan on 700+ in 2100 Global emissions must peak ~2025 We must cut CO2 emissions >50% by 2050. We must stop building traditional coal plants We must have average new car 60 mpg in 2040

New Coal Build by Decade

0

200

400

600

800

GW

Coa

l

Other Developing 43 90 128

India 16 48 79

China 150 168 226

Transition 1 11 19

OECD 12 184 218

2003-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030

Source: IEA, WEO 2004

221

500

670

>$1 trillion in misallocated capital

Unconventional Oil is Climate Disaster

Tar Sands: Use CH4 to make C-intensive fuel Coal-to-Oil: Double the CO2 emissions

Still a bad idea with carbon capture Enhanced Oil Recovery diverts captured CO2

Should NOT be valued as geologic storage Shale: 1.2 GW for 100,000 barrels a day

The 7 Barriers to AFVs

1) High first cost for vehicle

2) Storage (i.e. limited range)

3) Safety and liability

4) High fueling cost (compared to gasoline)

5) Limited fuel stations: Chicken & egg problem

6) Not a cost-effective pollution-reducer

7) Tough competition: Hybrids

The Hype About Hydrogen

“Total time to noticeable impact … is likely to be more than 50 years.” —Heywood, MIT, 7/05

“If I told you ‘never,’ would you be upset?” Toyota’s Bill Reinert on when H2 replaces gas, 1/05

“Forget hydrogen, forget hydrogen, forget hydrogen.” — James Woolsey, 1/06

After “CO2 emissions from electricity generation are virtually eliminated….” — Science, 7/03

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Makehydrogen

and displaceoil

Makeelectricity

and displacenatural gas

Makeelectricity

and displacecoal

ZERO-CARBON ELECTRICITY USED TO...

Po

un

ds o

f C

O2 S

aved

per

MW

h G

en

era

ted

Car of the Future: Plug in Hybrids

20-mile electric range, then reverts to hybrid Could displace half of gasoline Works best with carbon cap Blend in cellulosic ethanol Why use future clean electricity for H2?

Plug in uses electricity 3 to 4 times more efficientlyMake use of existing infrastructure/vehicles

Nuclear Hydrogen Fuel Costs Three Times More Than Nuclear Electricity

(Idaho National Lab Analysis, 12/05)

David Barber, Nuclear Programs, INL, 3/05

“Not even nuclear energy can turn hydrogen into a winner.”

“There certainly will not be an overabundance of clean energy to squander on an inefficient hydrogen loop, particularly when the same tasks can be accomplished directly with the original electricity. Not this century, anyway.”

2020 Vision

Oil Prices at Current or Higher Levels Global desperation about global warming

Nuclear electricity resurgence very possible Hybrids the dominant vehicle platform Plug-in hybrids the rapidly emerging platform

H2 fuel cell vehicles probably a dead end No future for nuclear hydrogen jromm@cap-e.com