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JUNE 2013
UPDATE of S A RESERVE BANK data for 2013Q1
Dr Johan Snyman
STELLENBOSCH
20 June 2013
MEDIUM-TERM FORECASTING ASSOCIATES Building Economists Tel: (021) 881-3887 PO Box 7119 Fax: (021) 881-3887 STELLENBOSCH, 7599 Email: [email protected]
Introduction
The SA Reserve Bank investment data for the first quarter of 2013 have been released. The latest figures reflect a modest revival in building and construction demand.
Figures show that housing bottomed out in the third quarter of 2011. The residential sector dropped marginally during 2012Q4 and 2013Q1, after rising for four consecutive quarters.
Mortgage loans for new houses and for existing buildings moved sideways at a very low level during 2013Q1.
The non-residential sector improved slightly when 2013Q1 is compared to 2012Q4.
The construction works sector grew marginally when 2013Q1 is compared to 2012Q4.
Overall, building and construction investment trends are becoming more positive, but low growth rates early in the year reflect an industry that is gathering momentum rather slowly.
The level of Gross Domestic Product is rising moderately
GDP AT CONSTANT 2005 PRICES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
| 82 | 87 | 92 | 97 | 02 | 07 | 12
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE (ECONOMIC UPSWINGS SHADED)
RA
ND
MIL
LIO
N
This slide provides a backward-looking view of our current economic performance
REAL GDP ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGESEASONALLY ADJUSTED
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
| 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 20 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE (ECONOMIC UPSWINGS SHADED)
AN
NU
AL
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
CH
AN
GE
2013Q1y-o-y1.9%
This slide provides a forward-looking view of our current economic performance
GDP AT CONSTANT 2005 PRICES QUARTER - ON - PREVIOUS QUARTER GROWTH EXPRESSED AT ANNUAL RATES
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
| 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 20 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
Source: STATS SA; SARB; MFA DATABASE (ECONOMIC UPSWINGS SHADED)
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
CH
AN
GE
SHADED AREAS REPRESENT THE UPSWING PHASESOF THE BUSINESSCYCLE
Asian Financial Crisis Global Crisis
2013Q1q-on-q0.9% p.a.
The SARB Composite Leading Indicator has been moving virtually sideways for about two years, a reflection of low growth, both globally and locally
SARB LEADING INDICATOR OVERALL ECONOMY
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
| 62 | 65 | 68 | 71 | 74 | 77 | 80 | 83 | 86 | 89 | 92 | 95 | 98 | 01 | 04 | 07 | 10 | 13
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE (Economic Upswings Shaded)
IND
EX
20
10
=1
00
Residential investment dropped for 19 consecutive quarters, then rose for four consecutive quarters, with a slight dip in 2012Q4 and 2013Q1
INVESTMENT IN RESIDENTIAL BLDGS AT CONSTANT 2012 PRICES 1960 to 2013 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED QUARTERLY DATA)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
| 61 | 64 | 67 | 70 | 73 | 76 | 79 | 82 | 85 | 88 | 91 | 94 | 97 | 20 | 03 | 06 | 09 | 12 |
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE
RA
ND
MIL
LIO
N
The year-on-year growth rate is barely positive, reflecting a modest revival in the housing cycle. Moderate growth is expected in coming years because of still high consumer debt levels and low income growth
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE 1960 - 2013 ( 3 QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE )
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
| 61 | 64 | 67 | 70 | 73 | 76 | 79 | 82 | 85 | 88 | 91 | 94 | 97 | 20 | 03 | 06 | 09 | 12 |
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE (ECONOMIC UPSWINGS SHADED)
AN
NU
AL
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
CH
AN
GE
The latest SARB figures are reflecting the recovery presaged by BER business survey data
COMPARISON: ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE in INVESTMENT IN RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS & BUSINESS MOOD RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONTRACTORS
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
| 72 | 77 | 82 | 87 | 92 | 97 | 02 | 07 | 12
Source: BER, SARB; MFA DATABASE
AN
NU
AL
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
CH
AN
GE
IN
VE
ST
ME
NT
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PE
SS
IMIS
M
< 5
0 >
O
PT
IMIS
M
APC INVESTMENT in RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS BUSINESS MOOD RESIDENTIAL CONTRACTORS
The ratio of household indebtedness rose from 50% in 2003 to 83% in 2008Q1. The level in 2013Q1 is 75.4%. This is an indication that consumers are trying their best to maintain living standards by reducing debt quite slowly … many households are even taking on new debt in the form of unsecured loans
TOTAL HOUSING INVESTMENT vs HOUSEHOLD DEBT RATIO
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
| 70 | 73 | 76 | 79 | 82 | 85 | 88 | 91 | 94 | 97 | 20 | 03 | 06 | 09 | 12 |
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE
Rm
AT
CO
NS
TA
NT
201
2 P
RIC
ES
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
HH
OL
D I
ND
EB
TE
DN
ES
S %
OF
DIS
PO
SA
BL
E
INC
OM
E
TOTAL HOUSING Rm HOUSEHOLD DEBT RATIO
DEBT LEVELS HAVE REACHED A PEAK, BUT REMAIN HIGH
The debt-servicing ratio has dropped from 12% in 2009 to 7.7% (just below the long-run average of 7.9%) because of lower interest rates and a slow decline in debt levels
HOUSEHOLD DEBT AS % OF DISPOSABLE INCOME vs DEBT - SERVICING RATIO
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
| 70 | 73 | 76 | 79 | 82 | 85 | 88 | 91 | 94 | 97 | 20 | 03 | 06 | 09 | 12 |
Source: ABSA; SARB; MFA DATABASE
HH
DE
BT
AS
% O
F D
ISP
OS
AB
LE
IN
CO
ME
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
DE
BT
SE
RV
ICIN
G R
AT
IO
HH DEBT as % of DISPOSABLE INCOME DEBT SERVICING RATIO
RUBICON
ASIANFINANCIALCRISIS
GLOBALCRISIS
Non-residential investment reached a peak in 2008Q4, then dropped and rose again from 2011Q1. The cyclical course is essentially sideways at a high level
INVESTMENT IN NON-RES BUILDINGS AT CONSTANT 2012 PRICES 1960 to 2013 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED QUARTERLY DATA)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
| 61 | 64 | 67 | 70 | 73 | 76 | 79 | 82 | 85 | 88 | 91 | 94 | 97 | 20 | 03 | 06 | 09 | 12 |
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE
RA
ND
MIL
LIO
N
Growth rates were positive for seven years, then turned negative for eighteen months in accordance with the historical pattern. The present (smoothed) annual percentage change is virtually zero with modest growth expected during the remainder of 2013
TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE 1960 - 2013 ( 3 QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE )
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
| 61 | 64 | 67 | 70 | 73 | 76 | 79 | 82 | 85 | 88 | 91 | 94 | 97 | 20 | 03 | 06 | 09 | 12 |
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE (ECONOMIC UPSWINGS SHADED)
AN
NU
AL
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
CH
AN
GE
Observe that the BER survey data usually lead the cyclical fluctuations recorded in the SARB figures. BER survey data are presaging a modest improvement in investment levels in coming quarters
COMPARISON: ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE in INVESMENT IN NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS & BUSINESS MOOD NON-RES BUILDING CONTRACTORS
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
| 72 | 77 | 82 | 87 | 92 | 97 | 02 | 07 | 12
Source: BER; SARB; MFA DATABASE
AN
NU
AL
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
CH
AN
GE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PE
SS
IMIS
M <
50
>
OP
TIM
ISM
INVESTMENT NON-RES BUSMOOD NON-RES CONTRACTORS
This comparison shows that non-residential investment is currently greater than residential investment, and that both sectors are reviving rather slowly. It also shows that the downturn from peak levels was more severe in the residential sector
INVESTMENT IN RESIDENTIAL & NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGSAT CONSTANT 2012 PRICES
0
20000
40000
60000
| 61 | 64 | 67 | 70 | 73 | 76 | 79 | 82 | 85 | 88 | 91 | 94 | 97 | 20 | 03 | 06 | 09 | 12 |
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE
RA
ND
MIL
LIO
N S
EA
SO
NA
LL
Y A
DJ
US
TE
D
NON-RESIDENTIAL RESIDENTIAL
The improvement in Total Building Investment, presaged by the MFA Composite Leading Indicator for the SA Building Industry (CLIBI), is now being reflected in SARB data (i.e. modest 3% y-o-y growth)
MFA LEADING INDICATOR COMPARED TO ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE in TOTAL INVESTMENT IN BUILDINGS
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
| 71 | 74 | 77 | 80 | 83 | 86 | 89 | 92 | 95 | 98 | 01 | 04 | 07 | 10 | 13
Source: FNB / BER; SARB; MFA DATABASE
SA
RB
AN
NU
AL
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
CH
AN
GE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PE
SS
IMIS
M
<
50
>
O
PT
IMIS
M
SARB ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE MFA LEADING INDICATOR
ANNUAL % CHANGELEFT-HAND SCALE
MFA CLIBIRIGHT-HAND SCALE
Next, we analyse housing finance …
The indicator of Mortgage Loans Granted for New Dwellings is showing a very slow recovery from the negative effects of the National Credit Act
BUILDING LOANS GRANTED AT CONSTANT 2012 PRICES
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
| 72 | 77 | 82 | 87 | 92 | 97 | 02 | 07 | 12
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE
RA
ND
MIL
LIO
N P
ER
MO
NT
H
SHADED AREAS REPRESENT THE UPSWING PHASES OF THE BUSINESSCYCLE GOLD
BOOM
ASIANCRISIS
NATIONALCREDIT ACT
GLOBALCRISIS
The indicator of Mortgages Granted for Existing Houses is still reflecting the slow recovery in the residential property market
MORTGAGE LOANS ON NEW & EXISTING BUILDINGS Rm AT CONSTANT 2012 PRICES
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
| 72 | 77 | 82 | 87 | 92 | 97 | 02 | 07 | 12
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE
AT
CO
NS
TA
NT
20
10
PR
ICE
S (
Rm
)
GOLDBOOM
PROPERTYBOOM
NATIONALCREDIT ACT
ASIAN CRISISPRIME AT 25,5%BUILDING LOANS
MORTGAGESON EXISTING BUILDINGS
PROPERTYBOOM
The price of available land for development is sure to rise rapidly in future years given the severe drop evident in the graph. The supply is being curtailed by the lack of demand, the lack of housing finance and a shortage of Eskom electricity connections
MORTGAGES GRANTED ON VACANT LAND SMOOTHED, AT CONSTANT 2012 PRICES
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
| 75 | 80 | 85 | 90 | 95 | 00 | 05 | 10 |
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE (Economic Upswings Shaded)
VA
LU
E O
F M
OR
TG
AG
ES
GR
AN
TE
D A
T C
ON
ST
AN
T 2
010
P
RIC
ES
Rm
GOLD BOOM
FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS'SUBSIDYSCHEME
DEMOCRATICELECTIONS
ASIANCRISIS
NATIONALCREDITACT
GLOBALCRISIS
These two key time series have the same y-scale, but the data are gathered in totally different ways. The similarity in their cyclical course inspires confidence in the validity of the basic data
NEW BUILDING LOANS & BPP TOTAL RESIDENTIALAT CONSTANT 2012 PRICES
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
| 72 | 77 | 82 | 87 | 92 | 97 | 02 | 07 | 12
Source: Stats SA; MFA DATABASE
BU
ILD
ING
LO
AN
S R
m P
ER
MO
NT
H
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
BP
P T
OT
AL
RE
S R
m P
ER
MO
NT
H
BUILDING LOANS BPP TOTAL RES
This slide shows the slow recovery evident in the property market
ASSETS MORTGAGED: DH & FLATS, COMMERCIAL & OTHER, TOTALRm AT CONSTANT 2012 PRICES
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
| 72 | 77 | 82 | 87 | 92 | 97 | 02 | 07 | 12
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE
RA
ND
MIL
LIO
N P
ER
MO
NT
H A
T C
ON
ST
AN
T 2
012
P
RIC
ES
TOTAL DWELLING HOUSES & FLATS COMMERCIAL & OTHER
TOTAL RES
COMMERCIAL
In the past, mortgage loans would rise when interest rates (inverted here) dropped. During the current cycle this pattern was broken by the introduction of the National Credit Act that reduced the number of qualifying prospective homeowners who planned to build. Hopefully, the gap should reduce in coming quarters if banks provide more housing finance
THE COST AND AVAILABLITY OF MORTGAGE FINANCE FOR NEW HOUSES(with the Prime Interest Rate inverted)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
| 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
Source: Stats SA; SARB; MFA DATABASE
Rm
per
mo
nth
at
co
ns
tan
t 2
01
0 p
rice
s
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Inte
rest
rate
pe
r ce
nt
INV
ER
TE
D
Building loans granted Prime interest rate
NOTE THIS UNUSUAL GAP
This breakdown shows that roughly 91% of total mortgage loans are granted for existing buildings, about 7% for new dwellings and only 2% for vacant land
Mortgages granted: New & Existing Houses & Vacant Land Percentage distribution
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
| 72 | 77 | 82 | 87 | 92 | 97 | 02 | 07 | 12
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
BR
EA
KD
OW
N
New Existing Vacant Land
Finally, we analyse trends in Construction Works
Construction Works is a SA Reserve Bank term that represents the turnover of all the companies that have erected or constructed civil engineering structures of all kinds, representing the cost of labour, materials, plant, fuel, overheads, etc., plus profits, including professional consultants' fees. This SARB category includes:
Roads, Streets, Bridges, Dams, Waterworks, Sanitation, Airport runways,Power stations, Harbours, Railway lines, Oil drilling, Gas and Fuel pipe lines, Communications towers …
Buildings (residential and non-residential) form a separate SARB category.Machinery and Equipment (including transformers, generators) put into factories, as well as Transport Equipment (commercial vehicles, trains, boats, ships and airplanes) are also separate categories.
Investment in construction works dropped from 2009Q4 to 2010Q3 and now reflects a U-shaped recovery at a very high level
INVESTMENT IN TOTAL CONSTRUCTION WORKS, 1960 to 2013 AT CONSTANT 2012 PRICES (SEAS ADJ QUARTERLY DATA)
0
30000
60000
90000
120000
150000
180000
210000
| 61 | 64 | 67 | 70 | 73 | 76 | 79 | 82 | 85 | 88 | 91 | 94 | 97 | 20 | 03 | 06 | 09 | 12 |
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE
RA
ND
MIL
LIO
N
SISHEN-SALDANHARICHARDS BAY
SASOL II & III
MOSSGAS
TELKOM
ESKOMPOWER STATIONS
LARGE DAMS
COEGA &ACCEL-ERATEDCAPEXPROGRAM
Growth rates dropped sharply because of comparative base effects . This happens when current levels are being compared to high levels recorded a year ago. Growth rates turned positive again in 2011Q1 and continued into positive territory during 2013Q1 (3% y-o-y)
TOTAL CONSTRUCTION WORKS ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE 1960-2013 ( 3 QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE )
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
| 61 | 64 | 67 | 70 | 73 | 76 | 79 | 82 | 85 | 88 | 91 | 94 | 97 | 20 | 03 | 06 | 09 | 12 |
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE (ECONOMIC UPSWINGS SHADED)
AN
NU
AL
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
CH
AN
GE
The rise in the confidence levels of civil contractors is being reflected in the latest SARB investment data that reflect a sideways momentum
COMPARISON: BUSINESS CONFIDENCE CIVIL ENGINEERING CONTRACTORS & CONSTRUCTION WORKS ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE (SMOOTHED)
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
| 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
Source: BER; SAFCEC; SARB; MFA DATABASE
CW
AN
NU
AL
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
CH
AN
GE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
BU
SIE
SS
CO
NF
IDE
NC
E C
IVIL
C
ON
TR
AC
TO
RS
C W APC Smoothed BUS CONFIDENCE CIVIL CONTRACTORS
PESSIMISM
OPTIMISM
Our long-term view …
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CONSTANT 2012 PRICES
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE
RA
ND
BIL
LIO
N
Compound Long Term Growth 3.2% p.a.
GROSS DOMESTIC FIXED INVESTMENT AT CONSTANT 2012 PRICES
0
200
400
600
800
46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE
RA
ND
BIL
LIO
N
LONG TERMGROWTH3.6% pa
COMPARISON GDP & GDFI AT CONSTANT 2012 PRICES ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGES
-30
0
30
46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE (ECONOMIC UPSWINGS SHADED)
AN
NU
AL
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
CH
AN
GE
GDFI APC GDP APC
GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION AS PERCENTAGE OF GDP
0
5
10
15
20
25
46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
SISHEN-SALDANHARICHARDSBAY HARBOUR
ESKOMPOWERSTATIONSSASOLSII & III
SHARPE-VILLE
MOSS-GAS
TELKOM
STADIUMSESKOMTRANSNETGAUTRAINAIRPORTSROADS
INVESTMENT IS THE ENGINE OF GROWTH ...
INVESTMENT IN TOTAL HOUSING 1946 - 2020 AT CONSTANT 2012 PRICES
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE
RA
ND
BIL
LIO
N
LONG TERMGROWTH 2 % p.a.
4th KUZNETS CYCLE
1st
2nd 3rd
INVESTMENT IN TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS 1946 - 2020 AT CONSTANT 2012 PRICES
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE
RA
ND
BIL
LIO
N
LONG TERMGROWTH2.6% pa
TOTAL INVESTMENT IN BUILDINGS 1946 - 2020 AT CONSTANT 2012 PRICES
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE
RA
ND
BIL
LIO
N
LONG-TERM GROWTH RATE2.2 % p.a.
TOTAL INVESTMENT IN CONSTRUCTION WORKS 1946 - 2020 AT CONSTANT 2012 PRICES
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
SOURCE: SARB, MFA DATABASE
RA
ND
BIL
LIO
N
SISHEN-SALDANHARICHARDS BAY MINESROADS
MOSSGAS
TELKOMALUSAFCOLUMBUSOLIFANTSVLEIFAURE
SASOL II & IIIESKOMPOWERSTATIONSSAFARI
LARGE DAMS
COEGA
FREE STATEGOLDFIELDS
LONG TERMGROWTH2.6% p.a.
STADIUMS AIRPORTS GTRAIN ESKOM ROADS
Conclusions: Trends in Gross Capital Formation
As our graphs show, the recent building boom raised levels of investment to all-time highs. In the case of housing, the subsequent downturn lasted longer than anticipated, in the main, because the introduction of the National Credit Act (July 2007) and the global financial crisis of 2008/09 changed the lending behaviour of banks.
Mortgage finance became scare and indicators of mortgage loans granted for new and existing houses continue to plod along.
The modest revival in housing has started from very low levels recorded during the severe downturn 2007 to 2011. Current SARB housing investment data are recovering more slowly than in previous revival phases of the economy. Modest growth of only 3% to 5% in housing is foreseen.
Current SARB non-residential investment data are reflecting a virtually sideways movement at high levels.
Current SARB data in the civil construction sector are at historically high levels, but can they be sustained? We think not, because several high value construction projects reflected in the figures have been completed.
