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OTT Services and Consumers’ Communication
Behaviour in Germany
Presentation at CEPS 29th June 2016
Dr. René Arnold Dr. Anna Schneider
What’s Up? What’s Down?
2
193 183 174 163 151 141
102 107 108 110 111 115
Fixed network Mobile network
2010 2011 2013 2012 2014 2015
Outgoing voice minutes in Germany (in billion minutes). Source: BNetzA (2016).
What’s Up? What’s Down?
3
41,5
54,9 59,8
37,9
22,3 16,6
SMS (bn)
2010 2011 2013 2012 2014 2015
SMS messages sent in Germany (in billion). Source: BNetzA (2016).
What’s Up? What’s Down?
4
4,6 5,5
7,6 7,7
9,5
11,5
0,065 0,1 0,156 0,267 0,395 0,591
Data volume broadband - fixed Data volume - mobile
2010 2011 2013 2012 2014 2015
In Germany in billion GB p.a.. Source: BNetzA (2016).
5 WhatsApp: MAU (m)worldwide. Source: Press releases, Business Intelligence (2014), TNW (2016). Instagram: MAU (m) worldwide; 2010 and 2011 registered users. Source: Business Insider (2014); Mashable (2013); Statista (2014); AdWeek (2015). Snapchat: MAU (m) worldwide; 2011 and 2012 MAU of picaboo. Source: Business Insider (2014); Techweez (2014); CIO (2015), Press releases.
What’s Up? What’s Down?
30 50 130
420
700
1.000
1 90
150
300 400
16 30 100
200
WhatsApp Instagram Snapchat
2010 2011 2013 2012 2014 2015
22
77
1
Wer nutzt was?
6
Who uses what?
In % referring to the German population (18+). Source: Representative online survey N = 1.000; WIK calculations.
57 40
2 1 21
51
19
9
…across all communication situations
…to phone someone
…to text someone
Taking a closer look at calls within Germany
7 In %; referring to the German population. Source: Representative online survey N = 1.000; WIK calculations.
Onl
y co
nven
tiona
l tel
epho
ny s
ervi
ces
Only O
TT services
average
55 years and above
45 to 54 years
35 to 44 years
25 to 34 years
18 to 24 years
0% 1-20% 21-40% 41-60% 61-80% 81-99% 100%
Usage intensity of OTT services
Onl
y co
nven
tiona
l tel
epho
ny s
ervi
ces
Only O
TT services
average
55 years and above
45 to 54 years
35 to 44 years
25 to 34 years
18 to 24 years
0% 1-20% 21-40% 41-60% 61-80% 81-99% 100%
Usage intensity of OTT services
8 In %; referring to the German population. Source: Representative online survey N = 1.000; WIK calculations.
Taking a closer look at calls abroad
Onl
y SM
S O
nly OTT services
average
55 years and above
45 to 54 years
35 to 44 years
25 to 34 years
18 to 24 years
0% 1-20% 21-40% 41-60% 61-80% 81-99% 100%
Usage intensity of OTT services
9 In %; referring to the German population. Source: Representative online survey N = 1.000; WIK calculations.
Taking a closer look at texting
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Substitution?
• Consumers use MMAs because they are different from SMS – Send pictures, videos, voice- and video-messages – New ways to negotiate emotional ties – Self-representation – Individual design options
• OTT communication services enable new communication opportunities – 8% of MMA users never use them instead of SMS – 36% of Internet telephony never use it instead of landline / mobile calls
Who is going to win?
f OTT communication services
usage intensity =
(age, household income, smartphone, Apple user, new mobile plan) -- + +++ + +
Linear OLS regression, n=638; R²=.256; Adj. R²=.250; F=43.5. All independent variables are statistically significant (p<.010).
How to read this figure: The usage intensity of OTT communication services, i.e. the share of OTT communication services used, decreases with the respondent’s age. It increases, however, with increasing household net income, e.g. if a smartphone is used, if an Apple device is used or if a new mobile plan with more high-speed data allowance has been purchased within the last two years.
11 Source: WIK calculations.
Who is going to win?
f OTT communication services
usage intensity =
(age, household income, smartphone, Apple user, new mobile plan) -- + +++ + +
Linear OLS regression, n=638; R²=.256; Adj. R²=.250; F=43.5. All independent variables are statistically significant (p<.010).
How to read this figure: The usage intensity of OTT communication services, i.e. the share of OTT communication services used, decreases with the respondent’s age. It increases, however, with increasing household net income, e.g. if a smartphone is used, if an Apple device is used or if a new mobile plan with more high-speed data allowance has been purchased within the last two years.
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f OTT streaming services
usage intensity =
(age, university, 4G, >16Mbit/s at home, new mobile plan, new Internet plan at home) ---- ++ +++ ++ ++ +
Linear OLS-Regression, n=829; R²=.253; Adj. R²=.247; F=46.305, All independent variables are statistically significant (p<.10)*
Source: WIK calculations.
Contact: Dr. René Arnold Head of Department Markets and Perspectives [email protected] +49 (0)2224 92 25 25 Find me on Linkedin Find me on XING Download the full study: WIK website SlideShare Pictures: Viktor Hanacek; Holly Mindrup; Negative Space; Sergey Zolkin
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Dr. Anna Schneider Lecturer in Business Psychology [email protected] +49 (0)221 97 31 99 715 Find me on Linkedin Find me on XING
About this study: The results presented here are part of WIK Discussion Paper No. 409. The full Discussion Paper can be purchased for 7.00 Euro from Ute Schwab ([email protected] or +49 (0)2224 / 92 25 41). The Discussion Paper is only available in German. The online survey for this study with a representative sample of 1,027 consumers in Germany (age 18+) was conducted between 30th November 2015 and 7th December 2015 by the international market research institute YouGov. The results were weighted to draw representative conclusions for the German population (age 18+). Additionally, 28 qualitative interviews were conducted in April and May 2016. About WIK: Founded in 1982, WIK (Wissenschaftliches Institut für Infrastruktur und Kommunikationsdienste) in Bad Honnef, Germany offers consultancy for public and private clients around the world. Its focus is on the telecommunication, Internet, post and energy sectors giving advice on policy, regulatory and strategic issues. More information is available at: www.wik.org About Fresenius University of Applied Sciences: Founded in 1848 by Carl Remigius Fresenius, and with its roots in the Fresenius Chemical Laboratory, the Fresenius University of Applied Sciences can look back on over 168 years of privately funded educational tradition in Germany. True to the intent of its founder, it combines teaching, research, and practical application. More information is available at: http://www.hs-fresenius.de/en
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