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NATIONAL AUTOMOBILE DEALERS ASSOCIATION8484 Westpark Drive, Suite 500 | Tysons, VA 22102
SOURCE: Wards Intelligence
New light-vehicle sales fell for the second straight month in June. Despite strong demand from retail and fleet
customers, reduced inventory levels on dealer lots limited the sales pace. The June 2021 SAAR totaled 15.4
million units—up 18% from June 2020 but down 9.9% from May 2021. June’s retail sales are expected to be up
by 12.4% compared with June 2020 and roughly flat compared with June 2019, says J.D. Power. Fleet sales will
likely account for 15% of June 2021’s raw volume of 1.3 million units. Through the first half of the year franchised
dealers sold 8.3 million new light vehicles, up 29.3% from first-half 2020 and down 2% from first-half 2019.
With such strong demand, many vehicles have sold at or above MSRP and OEMs have slashed their incentive
spending. According to J.D. Power, in mid-June 75% of vehicles sold for MSRP or above, which is up from 67% in
May 2021 and up even more from the pre-COVID average of 36%. Average incentive spending per unit this June
is expected to total $2,492, down $1,857 and $1,474 from June 2020 and June 2019, respectively. The June
2021 average incentive spend per unit is the second lowest on record for the month of June, J.D. Power says.
The inventory crunch will likely get worse before it gets better. Inventory levels at the end of June will probably
be flat compared with May 2021, at around 1.5 million units and then fall to some 1.3 million units by the end
of July. Some OEMs have canceled traditional summer shutdowns, while others have limited or stopped
production as they deal with the chip shortage. North American vehicle production, according to Wards
Intelligence, is forecast to see a five-year high in third-quarter 2021, reaching 4.4 million units, as OEMs work to
restock dealer lots. But even with an optimistic production forecast, it appears more and more clear that OEMs
will be working well into 2022 to build enough vehicles to restock dealer lots closer to pre-pandemic levels. And
additional supply chain disruptions may well put a dent in this rosy forecast.
We don’t believe that retail or fleet vehicle demand will cool anytime soon, as the country continues to recover
from the pandemic. New light-vehicle sales for the rest of the year will likely be more supply-constrained than
demand-constrained. If vehicle production exceeds expectations, we could see sales closer to 17 million units.
But given current supply constraints, we expect total new light-vehicle sales somewhere between 16.3 million
and 16.5 million units in 2021.
BEATMARKET
June 2021
Patrick Manzi, NADA Chief Economist
Ford
GM
Market Share, by manufacturer
Percent share of market (also indicated by size of circle)
2.0%
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
1% 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-1.2
-1.4
-1.6
-1.8
-2.2
-2.0
● Gain ● No change ● LossAll figures are year to date/year-to-date changes.
*Other is Jaguar/Land Rover, Mitsubishi, Mazda, Tesla, Volvo-2.4
-2.8
-2.6
-3.0%
Nissan
Market Share, by powertrain
Diesel 3.6%Hybrid 4.8%Electric 2.4%Plug-in hybrid 0.8%
Gasoline 88.4%
SUV8.8% 4.5%
VanCrossoverPickup17.6%
Small Car9.6%
Large Car0.6%8.4%
Midsized Car Luxury Car4.5%
Market Share, by segment
45.9%
Subaru
BMW
Other*
Hyundai-Kia
Daimler
VW
June 2021 Y/Y % Jan - Jun 2021 YTD/YTD %
Total Car 3.56 23.2% 3.82 22.4%
Total Light Truck 11.80 16.5% 13.13 33.2%
Domestic Light Vehicle 11.54 21.3% 12.78 28.6%
Import Light Vehicle 3.82 8.5% 4.18 38.0%
Total Light Vehicle SAAR 15.36 18.0% 16.95 30.6%
U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales(Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates)
Stellantis
Honda
Toyota