Justification for Proposing a Study of Large Petroleum Fields

T.R. KlettU.S. Geological Survey

UNECE Ad Hoc Group of Experts on Supply of Fossil Fuels

10-11 November 2004Geneva, Switzerland

U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

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Introduction

• Large Fields– Much of the world’s petroleum– Reserves estimates revised upwards

• Recovery processes irreversible

• Maximize economic recovery

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UNFC

Economic

Axis E

ECONOMICE 1

E 2

POTENTIALLY

ECONOMIC

E 3

INTRINSICALLY

ECONOMIC

F 3

F 1

FEASIBILITY STUDY/

MINING REPORTF 2

PREFEASIBILITY STUDY

GEOLOGICAL STUDYG 1

RECONNAISSANCE

G 4

G 2

G 3 PROSPECTINGGENERALEXPLORATION

DETAILED

EXPLORATION

Feasibility

Axis F

Geologica

l

AxisG

111

121

122

222

331

332

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PUBLICATION IN:ENGLISH

FRANÇAISРУССКИЙ

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Outline

• Field-size distributions

• Reserve growth

• Giant fields

• Conclusions

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Field Size DistributionsRecoverable Crude Oil and Natural Gas, Reported in 1996

From Klett and others (1997), data from IHS Energy Group (1996)

Red: Gas Fields

Green: Oil Fields

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Field Size DistributionsRecoverable Crude Oil and Natural Gas, Reported in 1996

From Klett and others (1997), data from IHS Energy Group (1996)

Red: Gas Fields

Green: Oil Fields

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Reserve Growth

Klett (2004)

• Delineation of additional in-place volumes (geological)• Increases in recovery efficiency (technological)• Recalculation of reserves in dynamically changing conditions (definitional)

Economic, operating, political, and regulatory

Increases in successive estimates of recoverable volumes of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in discovered fields

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• Recoverable volumes– Estimated periodically– Cumulative production and remaining

reserves• Reserves

– Initially conservative– Current conditions– Reasonable certainty

Recoverable and Reserve Volumes

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Giant Oil Fields (≥ 0.5 Billion Barrels)

Reported in 1981

Data from IHS Energy Group (1981 to 2003)From Klett and Schmoker (2001, 2003); Klett, Charpentier, Schmoker, and Attanasi (2000)

N

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Giant Oil Fields

Reported in 1996 (15 years)

Data from IHS Energy Group (1981 to 2003)From Klett and Schmoker (2001, 2003); Klett, Charpentier, Schmoker, and Attanasi (2000)

N

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Giant Oil Fields

Reported in 2003 (22 years)

Data from IHS Energy Group (1981 to 2003)From Klett and Schmoker (2001, 2003); Klett, Charpentier, Schmoker, and Attanasi (2000)

Red: Reported in 2003

Green: Reported in 1996

Blue: Reported in 1981

N

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Giant Oil Fields

From Klett and Schmoker (2001, 2003); Klett, Charpentier, Schmoker, and Attanasi (2000)

Net Change 1981-2003

Data from IHS Energy Group (1981 to 2003)

Red: 1996-2003 (7 years)

Green: 1981-1996 (15 years)

N

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Giant Oil Fields

Percent Change 1981-2003, Reported in 1981

Data from IHS Energy Group (1981 to 2003)From Klett and Schmoker (2001, 2003); Klett, Charpentier, Schmoker, and Attanasi (2000)

Red: 1996-2003 (7 years)

Green: 1981-1996 (15 years)

N

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Giant Oil Fields

Additions to Reserves 1981-2003, Reserve Growth

Data from IHS Energy Group (1981 to 2003)From Klett and Schmoker (2001, 2003); Klett, Charpentier, Schmoker, and Attanasi (2000)

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Giant Oil Fields

Additions to Reserves 1981-2003, New Fields

Data from IHS Energy Group (1981 to 2003)

Orange: New fields

Blue: Additions to 186 giant fields

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Giant Oil Fields

Change Through Time 1981-2003

Data from IHS Energy Group (1981 to 2003)From Klett and Schmoker (2001, 2003); Klett, Charpentier, Schmoker, and Attanasi (2000)

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Giant Oil Fields

Percent Change Through Time 1981-2003

Data from IHS Energy Group (1981 to 2003)From Klett and Schmoker (2001, 2003); Klett, Charpentier, Schmoker, and Attanasi (2000)

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Conclusions

• Demonstrate use of UNFC

• Large fields, greatest quantities

• Reserve growth is significant

• Maximizing economic recovery

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Thank You for Your Attention