Integrative Graduate Education and Research Traineeship
NSF-funded initiative to foster interdisciplinary graduate
education. Innovative approaches Catalyze a cultural change in
graduate education Collaborative model Over 200 projects in 90+
universities funded. T HE IGERT MISSION 3 Introduction &
Workshop Goals JAROD BLADES IGERT Students & Faculty; IGERT
Annual Retreat, Field Point State Park, WA; August, 2012 Nilsa
Bosque-Perez
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W HY ARE WE HERE ? 4 What we hope to provide: A greater
understanding of climate change science Information specific to
your location at regional and local scales What we need from you:
Are these types and scales of information useful to you? Why or why
not? How could future climate change research be focused to
increase its utility in management, what types of information would
better serve your needs? Introduction & Workshop Goals JAROD
BLADES
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Climate Science Hydrology Forest Ecology Fire Ecology Social
Psycholog y Federal Agencies (USFS, BLM, EPA) State Agencies NGOs
Forest Veg Simulator Climate Extension Regional Water Balance Model
Global Emission and Circulation Models Research World Management
World Boundary Objects (workshop tools) Regional Fire Modeling
Uncertainty Global scale Regional Local scale Boundary Organization
(Workshop) 5 Transferring knowledge across boundaries JAROD
BLADES
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20 years of data slow integration Identified Needs: better
understanding of climate change implications. (RMRS Strategic
Framework, 2009) rapid science delivery and efficient collaborative
processes. understanding of the processes related to knowledge
exchange 6 Climate change threatens the UFSF ability to fulfill its
mission of protecting and conserving forests and grasslands to meet
the needs of present and future generations. (Gail Kimbell, former
U.S. Forest Service Chief ) Need for Actionable Science JAROD
BLADES
Introduction Jarod Blades Spatial/Temporal Scales 6 Forests 4
workshop locations 100 years past, 100 years future JAROD BLADES G
RANGEVILLE M ISSOULA M C C ALL B OISE 9
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Introduction Jarod Blades You all know the rules Be courteous
to each other Constructive dialogue and feedback The elections are
over so no soap boxing Allow everyone time to speak Parking lot A
note about recording the small groups Restrooms 10
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Introduction & Workshop Goals Jarod Blades 11
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Introduction Jarod Blades Scope of our research Terrestrial
Ecosystems Water Supply Wildland Fire Climate Change Human
Connections Management Actions Stressors (invasives)
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Introduction Jarod Blades Ongoing effort to track understanding
and use of climate change science Are Employees Ready, Willing and
Able? (Engert, Swanson, Schilling, & Joyce, 2010) What
employees want: Management support and time to learn More training
within disciplines at forest and district levels Collaboration
across agencies Research and policy needs: Climate and weather at
local landscape Fire Dynamics Watershed-level HRV if not that,
what? Analysis/Monitoring/NEPA tools
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Introduction Jarod Blades Questions about the day? Introduce
Penny Morgan Give a short bio about her accolades
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Introduction Jarod Blades Timeframes 100 years past, 100 years
future
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Introduction Jarod Blades Potentially end here
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Introduction Jarod Blades 17
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Introduction Jarod Blades Uncertainty Discussion Uncertainty
generally refers to conditions in which ... details of situations
are ambiguous, complex, unpredictable, or probabilistic; when
information is unavailable or inconsistent; and when people feel
insecure in their own state of knowledge or the state of knowledge
in general (Brashers, 2001, p. 478).
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Introduction Jarod Blades
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Introduction Jarod Blades Hurricane Forecast Cone Based on the
past 5 years, 6070% of the time the eye will be within the cone
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/graphi
cs/al09/loop_3W.shtml
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Introduction Jarod Blades Medical Analogy Dr.: Well, I am very
concerned about your heart condition. I think you should be on a
low cholesterol diet and exercise. Would anybody say to their
doctor If you can't tell me precisely when am I going to have the
heart attack and how severe it will be. then why should I change my
lifestyle?
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Introduction Jarod Blades When you are certain, come back and
talk to us.' That is not the way it works in any other form of
life. Not in business. Not in health. Not in security.
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Introduction Jarod Blades Modeling the Future Essentially, all
models are wrong, but some are useful George E. P. Box Climate
scientists are NOT trying to make 'absolute' predictions; what
scientists are really doing is trying to identify, within given
probabilities, the outcomes that are likely to result in a variety
of circumstances. Quantifying uncertainties is important in all
scientific research: without an estimate of confidence, a result
cannot be placed in context, cannot be given meaning. But it is
essential in climate science because climate is, by definition, the
statistics of weather: and statistics is the science of
uncertainty.
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Introduction Jarod Blades A different way of thinking about the
future Comparing relative trends rather than absolute probabilities
Static and dynamic futures