WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITYPRESS BRIEFINGDecember 16, 2005MEGA DAM PROJECTS

SEQUENCE OF PRESENTATIONPAKISTANS NEED FOR LARGE DAMSWATER AVAILABILITY VS POPULATION GROWTHNUMBER OF DAMS UNDER CONSTRUCTION IN WORLDPROJECT LAYOUTDESIGN EARTHQUAKECOST ESTIMATESAPPREHENSIONS OF NWFP & SINDHIMPLEMENTATIONS SCHEDULEFUNDING REQUIREMENTS

PAKISTANS NEED FOR LARGE DAMSWATER SCARCE COUNTRY AS PER GLOBAL CRITERIARAPIDLY INCREASING POPULATIONDEPLETING ON-LINE STORAGESLARGE ESCAPAGES OF UNCONTROLLED FLOOD IN SEAEFFECTIVE RIVER REGULATION AND INTEGRATION OF EXISTING IRRIGATION SYSTEM

WATER APPORTIONMENT ACCORD 1991PARA-6THE NEED FOR STORAGES, WHEREEVER FEASIBLE ON THE INDUS AND OTHER RIVERS WAS ADMITTED AND RECOGNIZED BY THE PARTICIPANTS FOR PLANNED FUTURE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT

WATER AVAILABILITY (MAF)

POPULATION (Million)1126 m3 2005155.27 Million (2005)

Chart1

526034

388846

275165

212984

1555115

1282139.5

1066167.72

915195.5

858208.4

PER CAPITA AVAILIBILITY

POPULATION GROWTH

Per Capita availbility

Papulation (million)

YEAR

PER CAPITA AVAILABILITY (M) 3

WATER AVAILABILITY Vs POPULATION GROWTH

Sheet4

Sheet1

Papulation (million)quantity of waterratio

195133.8800.4225

196142.9730.5876712329Per Capita availbilityPapulation (million)Canal Diversion (MAF)

197165.3820.7963414634195152603467

198184.3900.9366666667196138884684.6

1992113.61061.07169811321971275165106

2002145.91041.40288461541981212984106

20121781001.7819911555115104.6

2020216.8992.189898989920021282139.5104

202522598.62.281947261720051162153.91100

20101066167.7299.5

2015984181.7399.2

2020915195.599

2025858208.498.6

Papulation (million)Quantity of Water

1951341455260

1961461453888

1971651452751

1981841452129

19911151451555

2000139.51451282

2005153.911451162

2010167.721451066

2015181.73145984

2020195.5145915

2025208.4145858

Sheet1

000

000

000

000

000

000

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000

&A

Page &P

Papulation (million)

quantity of water

ratio

year

poplation

per capita water avalibility

ksdhrksdkjgjghkfjl

Sheet2

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

&A

Page &P

Papulation (million)

Quantity of Water

Year

population

water

rtyu

Sheet3

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

&A

Page &P

PER CAPITA AVAILIBILITY

WATER SHORT COUNTRY

AFTER TARBELA

INDEPENDENCE

AFTER MANGLA

POPULATION GROWTH

Per Capita availbility

Papulation (million)

Canal Diversion (MAF)

YEAR

PER CAPITA AVAILABILITY (M)3

CANAL DIVERSION (MAF)

POPULATION (MILLIONS)

CANAL WATER DIVERSION Vs POPULATION GROWTH

5260 m3 (1951)

AVERAGE ANNUAL FLOW AND STORAGE CAPACITY OF DAMS OF SOME MAJOR RIVER BASINS

Sr. #River BasinAverage Annual flow (MAF)No. of DamsStorage Capacity (MAF)% age Storage1Colorado12359.624972Nile3811324753Sutlej BiasIndia (Total)3275054,63611.3224535334Yellow River345768.95205Columbia179334196Indus & others Rivers145318.37137Yangtze87013248World20,000-8,00040

ESCAPAGE BELOW KOTRIHYDROLOGICAL YEAR FROM APRIL TO MARCHSource: WRMP WAPDA based on data supplied by Govt. of SindhUpto 03.10.05

Chart1

69.0835.2

30.3935.2

80.5935.2

29.8135.2

20.135.2

33.7935.2

9.6835.2

45.9135.2

29.5535.2

10.9835.2

26.935.2

17.5335.2

52.8635.2

17.2235.2

42.3435.2

53.2935.2

81.4935.2

29.1135.2

91.8335.2

62.7635.2

45.435.2

20.7935.2

35.1535.2

8.8335.2

0.7735.2

1.9335.2

2.3735.2

20.1835.2

0.292004-05

24.435.2

AVG. (35.2)

Source: WRMD WAPDA

YEARS

ANNUAL DISCHARGE (MAF)

Sheet1

1975-7635.20

1976-7769.0835.20

1977-7830.3935.20

1978-7980.5935.20

1979-8029.8135.20

1980-8120.1035.20

1981-8233.7935.20

1982-839.6835.20

1983-8445.9135.20

1984-8529.5535.20

1985-8610.9835.20

1986-8726.9035.20

1987-8817.5335.20

1988-8952.8635.20

1989-9017.2235.20

1990-9142.3435.20

1991-9253.2935.20

1992-9381.4935.20

1993-9429.1135.20

1994-9591.8335.20

1995-9662.7635.20

1996-9745.4035.20

1997-9820.7935.20

1998-9935.1535.20

1999-20008.8335.20

2000-010.7735.20

2001-021.9335.20

2002-032.3735.20

2003-0420.1835.20

2004-050.29

2005-0624.4035.20

33.18

Sheet2

Sheet3

From Western Rivers u/s RIM Stations146 MAFUses above RIM Stations (NWFP) 5 MAFNet available at Rim Stations141 MAFDistribution by IRSA (1991-WAA)117.35 MAFCanal Diversion106 MAFNot available for distribution (as per Accord) (4-5)11.35 MAFWater flowing downstream Kotri (3-5) 35 MAFWATER AVAILABILITY IN PAKISTAN

RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION (MAF)

RESERVOIRGROSS STORAGE CAPACITYGROSS STORAGE LOSSORIGINALYEAR 2004YEAR 2004YEAR 2012YEAR 2025TARBELA11.62 (1974)8.36 (72%)3.26 (28%)4.17 (36%)5.51 (47%)MANGLA5.88 (1967)4.64 (78%)1.24 (22%)1.72 (29%)1.97 (34%)CHASHMA0.87 (1971)0.48 (55%)0.39 (45%)0.48 (55%)0.50 (57%)TOTAL18.3713.48 (73%)4.89 (27%)6.37 (35%)7.98 (43%)

NUMBER OF DAMS UNDER CONSTRUCTIONIN SOME COUNTRIESSource: ICOLD register of Dams

PROPOSED DAMS ON INDUSAKHORI DAMSKARDU DAM

Barotha Power HouseAKHORA KHATTAK

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT LAYOUT

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT SALIENT FEATURESRESERVOIR GROSS STORAGE7.9 MAF LIVE STORAGE6.1 MAF RETENTION LEVEL915 FT

MAIN DAM CREST ELEVATION940 FT. MAXIMUM HEIGHT260 FT. LENGTH11,000 FT.

SPILLWAYS OVERFLOW SPILLWAY1,070,000 Cusecs ORIFICE 980,000 Cusecs

POWERSTATION NUMBER OF UNITS8/12 Nos. Initial/Ultimate

INSTALLED CAPACITY2,400/3,600 MW(12,400 GWh per year)ESTIMATED COST (SEPTEMBER 2005)US $ 6.1 BillionNO LOW LEVEL OUTLETS INCLUDED IN PRESENT DESIGN

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT SEISMIC DESIGNTHE EVALUATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD AND DETERMINATION OF MAXIMUM CREDIBLE EARTHQUAKE (MCE) AND OPERATING BASIS EARTHQUAKE (OBE) WAS MADE WITH THE ADVICE OF PROF. ALLEN, PROF. AMBRESSEYS AND MR. ABUL FARAH. THE PARAMETER OF MCE M = 7 AND a = 0.4g ARE BASED ON THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM EARTHQUAKE OCCURRING ON KALABAGH FAULT WHICH IS 12 KM FROM THE DAM SITE AT ITS NEAREST POINT. OTHER MAPPED FAULTS ARE SUFFICIENTLY FAR AWAY.

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT* December 2004

PROVINCEPOPULATION * TO BE RESETTLEDLAND AFFECTED (ACRES)BARANIIRRIGATEDTOTALPUNJAB78,00021,6002,90024,500N.W.F.P42,0002,9001003,000TOTAL120,00024,5003,00027,500

KALABAGH DAM PROJECTCost Estimates (US$ Million)

Sr. No.DescriptionSeptember 20051.Resettlement & Relocation6752.Preparatory Work, Colonies, Contractor Camp4003.Diversion Works, Dam Embankment and Earthwork6304.Power Intakes, Conduits & Power Station9205.Spillway4506.Transmission Lines and E&M Works5507.Physical Contingencies415Sub Total40408.Price Escalation7939.IDC114610.Taxes & Duties121Total Investment Cost6100

APPREHENSIONS OF NWFP

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT APPREHENSIONS OF NWFP

KALABAGH RESERVOIR AREA WITH PROPOSED MODEL VILLAGES

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT 3 D VIEW OF NOWSHERA VALLEY

PIR SABAK

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT L-SECTION OF KABUL RIVER

DRAINAGE LEVELS IN KABUL VALLEY WITH KALABAGHSWABICHARSADDAPABBINOWSHERAMARDANRESERVOIR RETENATION EL. 915DISTANCE U/S DAM SITE IN MILESLEVEL IN FEET9559609409701000

KALABAGH DAM PROJECTKABUL RIVER SECTION KM-5(9270 FT DOWNSTREAM OF PIR SABAK)

APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH

RIVERAIN AREA DEVELOPMENT (SINDH) THROUGH TUBEWELLS

THE INDUS DELTAMANGROVES AND LANDFORMS

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT SEASON-WISE AND ANNUAL CANAL HEAD WITHDRAWALS OF SINDH (1962-63 TO 1999-2000)

KALABAGH DAM PROJECTHOW SOON CONSTRUCTION CAN START ?All designs & Tender Documents ready Revised Environmental/Resettlement Studies Underway.Preliminary Works i.e. Access Roads, Colonies etc. can also start.Construction can start in 2006.

KALABAGH DAM PROJECTOVERALL IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE

Sheet1

KALABAGH DAM PROJECT

OVERALL IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE

Sr.ACTIVITY200520062007200820092010201120122013

No.123456789

1Government Approval

2Upgradation of Planning Report, Designs & Tender Documents

3Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)

4Prequalification of Contractors, Bidding, Evaluation and Award of Contract

5Pre-Construction Activities (Preliminary Works like Access, Camps, Land Acquisition etc.)

6Construction

7Resettlement

First Filling

SHARING OF FUTURE STORAGE PROJECTS(Water Apportionment Accord 1991)PUNJAB 37%

SIND37%

NWFP14%

BALUCHISTAN12%

BHASHA DAM PROJECT

BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECTSATTELITE IMAGERY OF RESERVOIRBASHA DIAMER DAM

BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT STUDIES CARRIED OUTDrilling in River and Overland on Selected Axis.Finalization & Improvement on Basic Studies: Hydrological Structural Hydraulics Construction Material Geotechnical/Seismological Electrical & MechanicalPreparation of Feasibility Level Designs.Environmental Impact Assessment.Resettlement Issues.Preparation of Cost Estimate.Economic & Financial Evaluation.Finalization of Feasibility Report (August 2004).

BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECTAPPROVAL BY PANNEL OF EXPERTSWAPDA Appointed an international Panel of Experts (2004).POE made in depth review of the Work Done by the Consultants and made detailed site visit.POE Endorsed the Feasibility.

BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECTLAYOUT PLAN/CONFIGURATION

BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT SALIENT FEATURES

BASHA DIAMER DAMSEISMIC HAZARD STUDIESSEISMIC DESIGN PARAMETERSMAXIMUM DESIGN EARTHQUAKE (MDE) TAKEN EQUAL TO THE MAXIMUM CREDIBLE EARTHQUAKE (MCE) 0.40 gOPERATING BASIS EARTHQUAKE (OBE)0.21 g

BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECTPOWER TRANSMISSIONFAR AWAY FROM LOAD CENTER.FIRST 325 KM THROUGH RUGGED MOUNTAINS.MORE COSTLIER AND DIFFICULT TO CONSTRUCT.TOTAL COST U.S. $ 986 MILLION WHICH IS ABOUT 15 % OF TOTAL FINANCIAL COST.

BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT

ALTERNATE TRANSMISSION ROUTES ON TOPO MAP

BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT ENVIRONMENT AND RESETTLEMENT

BHASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT RELOCATION/REHEBLITATION OF KKHHasanabdalLength of Section40 km281 km94 kmBASHA DIAMER DAM

BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT UPGRADATION AND RELOCATIONOF KKH Upgradation Reach (Havelian to Dam Site)Length = 323 Km Cost=9.2 Billion Rupees Relocation Reach (Sazin to Raikot Bridge)Length140 Km Cost14.30 Billion Rupees

BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECTCURRENT STATUSConsultancy for Detailed Design & Preparation of11.07.2005 Tender Documents Awarded Consultants Mobilized 05.09.2005Completion Period 30 monthsDate of Completion04-03-2008

BHASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT OVERALL IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE

Sr. No.CALENDER YEAR (JAN-DEC) 2002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520161Feasibility Study Stage-I (Completed)2Preparation of Tender Documents and Detail Engineering3Additional Investigation Studies and Model Testing4Pre-construction ActivitiesLand Acquisition, Up-gradation of KKH5Tendering Process Up to Award6Mobilization of Contractor7Construction Activities8Rehabilitation/ Resettlement including Relocation of KKH

SKARDU / KATZARAH DAM PROJECT

SKARDU DAMSkarduShigarAirportSKARDU DAM SITE SKARDU/KATZARAH DAM PROJECT

CROSS SECTION THROUGH AIRPORT

STATUS & TECHNICAL ISSUES OF FUTURE DAMSPF Pre FeasibilityF FeasibilityD Design T Tender Documents