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Building Resilience Workshop II: 2011
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Resilience Systems Engineering? Engineering Resilient Systems?
Why is Systems Engineering Cri4cal to Building Resilience?
• Systems engineering is – “how to take a systems approach”
• Discipline (applying proven prac4ces) – is cri4cal to mission success and safety – Integrates parts into a whole > sum of parts
• Where scale (size, complexity, stakeholders, risks) – Is large – Challenges intellectual manageability – “Complex Systems Almost Always Fail in Complex Ways”
• Totally dis4nct from (but complementary to) – Tradi4onal engineering disciplines – Project management – Program management – Planning
Systems Engineering Called For No • Intellectually manageable by
small unified group with a shared vision
• Does not cross jurisdic4ons • Negligible threats to mission or
safety • Probabilis4c paQerns for
stressors • Minor unknowns
Yes • Complex in terms of
– Size (parts, procedures) – Dura4on – Scope – Risks – Conflic4ng stakeholders
• Significant risks with serious consequences to both mission and stakeholders
• High consequence/low frequency for incidents suggests random, unpredictable behavior (Black Swan)
• Major show-‐stopping unknowns and uncertain4es
Resilience Systems Engineering
• For “works” vulnerable to disrup4ons • Allocates 100% of risk to • Components • Stakeholders (residual)
• Resilience cycle • Avoid, survive, recover • to avoid beQer understood risks
How to Engineer a Resilient System?
• Specify requirements that reflect de-‐conflicted results of value for all cri4cal stakeholders
• Architected model that depicts – Components with allocated requirements and risks – Full life cycle – Clear boundaries – Interfaces
• Between components • External en44es
• Defined, con4nuously improving processes based on best prac4ces • Path forward informed by product and project risks
– Including stressing “discrup4ons” (environmental, human) • Verify and validate over life cycle for sustained and improved
resilience
RSE Disciplines & Prac4ces • Requirements – Stakeholder expecta4ons at system level • Architecture – Total system or system of systems • Interface management – Systems, components, ins4tu4ons • Risk management – At system level, uncertain4es • Management of changes – Across interfaces • Performance management – Total system • Decision making – System level, win-‐win • Leadership – Enabling culture, high performance teaming • Con4nuous Process Improvement
Calls for Resilience Systems Engineering
• Sponsoring development of frameworks – Interna4onal Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) – The Infrastructure Security Partnership (TISP)
• Katrina – IPET major finding
• Flood Protec4on System a system in name only • Macondo Well – Na4onal Academy of Engineering (NAE) and the Na4onal Research Council (NRC
Of par4cular concern is an apparent lack of a systems approach that would integrate the mul4plicity of factors poten4ally affec4ng the safety of the well, monitor the overall margins of safety, and assess the various decisions from perspec4ves of well integrity and safety.
The Results are Different Current Approach • Con4nuing surprise
from unimagined consequences
• Address selected risks • Projects aligned with
poli4cs and funding sources
• Poli4cs trumps safety • Solu4ons planned as
finite deliverables • Clashes in vision not
iden4fied or resolved
Systems Approach • Elicit all posi4ve and nega4ve
outcomes without regard to predictability
• Address 100% of risk (holis4c) • Solu4ons aligned with impacted
stakeholders • Safety held paramount • Solu4ons architected and engineered
with robust, life cycle capabili4es • Improvement con4nuous and built-‐in • Achieves shared vision through high
performance teaming
Resilience Systems Engineering
Key Documents • IPET -‐ Final IPET Volumes
– Volume I. Execu4ve Summary and Overview (Main Text & Appendices) – hQps://ipet.wes.army.mil/NOHPP/_Post-‐Katrina/(IPET)%20Interagency%20Performance
%20Evalua4on%20TaskForce/Reports/IPET%20Final%20Report/Volume%20I/Volume%20I%20FINAL%2023Jun09%20mh.pdf
• ASCE -‐ So, You Live Behind a Levee! What You Should KNow to Protect Your Home and Loved Ones from Floods – hHp://www.asce.org/Product.aspx?id=2147485994
• ArchitecVng Resilient Systems: Accident Avoidance and Survival and
Recovery ... By ScoQ Jackson – hQp://www.amazon.com/Architec4ng-‐Resilient-‐Systems-‐Disrup4ons-‐Engineering/dp/
0470405031/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1300541573&sr=1-‐2 • The Black Swan: Second EdiVon: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
– hQp://www.amazon.com/Architec4ng-‐Resilient-‐Systems-‐Disrup4ons-‐Engineering/dp/0470405031/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1300541573&sr=1-‐2
• NaVonal Commission on the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling – hQp://www.oilspillcommission.gov/