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Keeping Current Matters. July 2011. Pending Home Sales. NAR 03/2011. Return on Investment. (January 1, 2000 – July 1, 2011). MSN Money.com, Case Shiller. Mortgage Rates – 30 year fixed. Today. 4/01/2010. Federal Reserve. National Public Radio (NPR). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Pending Home Pending Home SalesSales
NAR 03/2011
Return on InvestmentReturn on Investment
Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate
Series 1 15 -5.4 -30 38.8
15
-5.4
-30
38.8
-40
-20
0
20
40
60 (January 1, 2000 – July 1, 2011)
MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
Mortgage Rates Mortgage Rates –– 30 year fixed30 year fixed
Federal Reserve
4
4.25
4.5
4.75
5
5.25
National Public Radio (NPR)National Public Radio (NPR)
“I think the arithmetic is such that if you plan to live in your home five or more years, then you should really consider buying a single-family home in most parts of the country at this point in time.”
NPR 6/8/2011
For Many, It's A Good Time To Buy A Home
– Mark Zandi, Moody’s Economy.com
CBS Money Watch.comCBS Money Watch.com
“No, that’s not a joke…this may be a once in a generation buyer’s market.”
CBS Money Watch 6/8/2011
Real Estate: Why the Time to Buy Is Now
Macro Market Survey 06/2011
Home Prices Moving ForwardHome Prices Moving Forward
-3.52
0.49
2.182.92
-7.5
0.5
2.6
3.7
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
2011 2012 2013 2014
Macro Market Survey JP Morgan
JP Morgan 6/09/2011
“Housing is more affordable than it’s been in a generation. I think it is a good time to become a home owner because it’s so affordable today compared to where it’s been for generations.”
CNN 7/03/2011
It’s Time to BuyIt’s Time to Buy
- HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan
Supply & Demand
National Home Price Change (2008 to 2011)
National REO Saturation (2008 to 2011)
REO Saturation and Prices
Clear Capital
NAR
40%37%
31%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
March April May
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
Washington Post 6/30/2011
Foreclosure DelaysForeclosure Delays
NY Times 6/19/2011
Foreclosure DelaysForeclosure Delays
90+ Delinquencies and Foreclosures
4,084,557
Delinquencies & ForeclosuresDelinquencies & Foreclosures…outnumber foreclosure sales by a ratio of
50:150:1
LPS 6/2011
Window of Window of OpportunityOpportunity
"That is a very big wild card ... how quickly these foreclosures are released on the housing market, and that is a difficult thing to predict. We do expect foreclosures are going to rise over the next several quarters with the fastest pace occurring toward the end of this year.”
– News Tribune 6/28/2011
News Tribune 6/28/2011
“The key to the near-term outlook is the change in the share of sales of distressed homes, known as REO sales. As this share increases, the proportion of discounted home sales will also increase, causing house prices to fall.”
– Moody’s Analytics
Celia ChenCelia Chen
“The slow resolution of issues surrounding the so-called robo-signing scandal is keeping distressed homes off the market. As a result, the housing correction will take a little longer …House prices will flounder until early next year and start rising in earnest at the end of 2012.”
– Celia Chen
Moody’s Analytics 6/17/2011
PricesPrices
“The delicate supply/demand balance will continue to be challenging for the remainder of this year and into 2012. Comparing housing inventory (supply) and existing home sales (demand), we can see that not only is the pace of demand important but so is the conversion of shadow inventory into real inventory.”- JP Morgan
JP Morgan 6/09/2011
PricesPrices
Macro Market Home Price Expectations Survey 06/2011
Home Price Expectation SurveyHome Price Expectation Survey
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Appreciation -3.52 -3.03 -0.85 2.1 5.71
-4
-2
0
2
4
6Cumulative Appreciation
140
145
150
155
CME Group 6/11
Feb ‘12Feb ‘12
Projected BottomProjected Bottom
August PriceAugust Price
Apr ‘13Apr ‘13
Case Shiller Future PricesCase Shiller Future Prices
Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
2 Pending Sales http://www.realtor.org/research/research/phsdata
3 Return on Investment (Prices) http://www.standardandpoors.com/home/en/us
3 Return on Investment (Stocks) http://money.msn.com/
4 Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/
5 NPR http://m.npr.org/news/Business/137029194
6 CBS Money Watchhttp://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/feature/real-estate-why-the-time-to-buy-is-now/6244377/
7, 19 JP Morganhttps://mm.jpmorgan.com/stp/t/c.do?i=2312-1F54&u=a_p*d_607595.pdf*h_-2gh4fcf
7,21 Macro Markets http://www.macromarkets.com/real-estate/home-price-survey.asp
8 HUD’s Donovanhttp://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/07/03/obamas-housing-chief-nows-the-time-to-buy/
14 Foreclosure Delayshttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/foreclosure-backlogs-taking-longer-to process/2011/06/30/AGuWdksH_graphic.html
15 Foreclosure Delayshttp://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2011/06/19/business/19foreclosuregraphic.html?ref=business
Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
16 Inventory to Saleshttp://www.lpsvcs.com/LPSCorporateInformation/ResourceCenter/PressResources/MortgageMonitor/201105MortgageMonitor/LPSMortgageMonitorMay2011.pdf
18 Celia Chenhttp://www.thenewstribune.com/2011/06/28/1724764/home-price-index-rises-but-more.html
24%
21%
20%
18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25%
Would rather give up sex
Would rather do their taxes
Would rather go to the dentist
Presentation Boredom Presentation Boredom
Fannie Mae National Housing Survey
96%96%of Homeowners See Homeownership of Homeowners See Homeownership as a Positive Experience. as a Positive Experience.
of Americans Say Home Ownership is an of Americans Say Home Ownership is an Important Part of the American Dream.Important Part of the American Dream.
New York Times and CBS News Survey
88%88%
of Americans Agree that Buying a Home of Americans Agree that Buying a Home is the Best Long-Term Investment.is the Best Long-Term Investment.
Pew Research Center
81%81%
69%69%
Gallup Poll
of Americans Say Now of Americans Say Now is the Time to Buy.is the Time to Buy.