Keijiro Otsuka and Donald Larson World Bank January 11, 2012 1 Research supported by the Knowledge...
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An African Green Revolution: Finding ways to boost productivity on small farms Keijiro Otsuka and Donald Larson World Bank January 11, 2012 1 Research supported by the Knowledge for Change Program, Research Support Budget (World Bank); FASID/GRIPS (Japan)
Keijiro Otsuka and Donald Larson World Bank January 11, 2012 1 Research supported by the Knowledge for Change Program, Research Support Budget (World Bank);
Keijiro Otsuka and Donald Larson World Bank January 11, 2012 1
Research supported by the Knowledge for Change Program, Research
Support Budget (World Bank); FASID/GRIPS (Japan)
Slide 2
Research project focused on the usefulness of the Asian Green
Revolution strategy as a model for Africa --Characterize key
elements of the strategy, initial conditions and outcomes --
Explore whether a similar set of policies are appropriate for
Sub-Saharan Africa Identify key components for successful outcomes
-- Jointly managed by Kei and myself -- Involved a number of rural
development researchers from Africa, Australia, Europe, Japan and
the US -- Material is presented as a series of 13 chapters in a
forthcoming book Some chapters already available as working papers
-- Funded by the Knowledge for Change Program, Research Support
Budget (World Bank); FASID/GRIPS (Japan) 2
Slide 3
Key Focus Areas Small farms New varieties of key staple crops
Often input intensive Market-based distribution systems Inputs and
outputs Varying degrees of support Core component of most current
rural development strategies in Africa but not only component
3
Slide 4
Eighty-six per cent of staples in poor areas come from local
sources, so support for country-led efforts to bolster smallholder
agriculture is critical. Robert Zoellik, President of the World
Bank, Financial Times January 5, 2011 Sustainable intensification
of smallholder crop production is one of FAOs strategic objectives.
Jacques Diouf, Director-General, Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations. Foreword to Save and Grow. FAO (2011). G20
Ministers of Agriculture must focus on smallholder farmers to
achieve food security and prevent food price volatility Shenggen
Fan, Director General, International Food Policy Research
Institute. Press Statement June 15, 2011. AGRA works to achieve a
food secure and prosperous Africa through the promotion of rapid,
sustainable agricultural growth based on smallholder farmers. What
is the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa, www.agra-
alliance.org, downloaded June 16, 2011.www.agra- alliance.org
4
Slide 5
A strategy based on small farms and staple crops should be a
crucial and central component of most rural development strategies
in Sub-Saharan Africa Implementation of the strategy in SSA is much
different than in Asia Success in SSA is arriving as a collection
of technological breakthroughs rather than a wave of successes
based on a handful of new crops In Asia, the concentration of diets
and land-constrained production in rice and wheat created special
circumstances that allowed high- yielding varieties and rice and
wheat to set off a powerful virtuous cycle In Sub-Saharan Africa,
heterogeneity of circumstances requires a larger portfolio of
technologies Including technologies that focus on non-land inputs
There is greater scope in Africa for complementary contributions
from other pillars 5
Slide 6
Source: von Braun (2005) 6
Slide 7
Source: FAOSTAT (2011) 7
Slide 8
Source: Nagayets (2005) 8
Slide 9
Virtuous cycle Agricultural productivity gains Higher rural
incomes Reductions in rural poverty Investments in human and
physical capital in rural economy Declining food prices Reductions
in urban poverty 9
Slide 10
Source FAOSTAT 10
Slide 11
Source: FAOSTAT 11
Slide 12
Source: FAOSTAT 12
Slide 13
Source: FAOSTAT 13
Slide 14
Source: FAO, average 2003-2007 14
Slide 15
15
Slide 16
Why hasnt Green Revolution taken place in SSA? 16
Slide 17
Development and diffusion of a series of fertilizer-
responsive, high-yielding modern varieties (MVs) in irrigated and
favorable rainfed areas. The Asian Green Revolution entailed a
long-term process spanning more than three decades since the
mid-1960s. The Asian Green Revolution was technology-led and
sustained by subsequent changes in policies and institutions, i.e.,
the development and adoption of early generation MVs led to an
increase in yield, which induced increased investments in
irrigation, development of fertilizer markets, adaptive research
and extension, subsidy programs for purchased inputs, and further
research to improve MVs. 17
Slide 18
18 Data source: World Rice Statistics, online
Slide 19
19 Data source: World Rice Statistics, online
Slide 20
20 Data source: World Rice Statistics, online
Slide 21
21 Data source: World Rice Statistics, online
Slide 22
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Slide 23
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Slide 24
Rice farmers and a tall local variety in Mozambique Low yield
(1 ton/ha) 24
Slide 25
25
Slide 26
26
Slide 27
Questions: How can we scale up the success in limited areas?
27
Slide 28
Agriculture in SSA is characterized by: Low and stagnant crop
yields Increasing population pressure on land Dominance of small
farms Declining soil fertility Deteriorating climate Fear of
widespread famine Is contemporary SSA very different form tropical
Asia before the eve of Green Revolution in the early 1960s? 28
Slide 29
1. A broader portfolio of crops and more diverse diets in SSA
Need for diverse innovations 2. Higher real fertilizer price and
lower fertilizer use in SSA Need for efficient marketing 3. Lower
irrigation ratio, and comparable farm size and arable land-rural
population ratio Greater need for investments in land improvement
including irrigation 29
Slide 30
1. Small vs. Large Farms: Do small farmers in SSA respond to
new opportunities? 2. Promising vs. non-promising crops: Is Asian
Green Revolution technology transferable to SSA? 3. Low-Input vs.
High-Input Agriculture: How can we achieve high yield sustainably
in SSA? 4. Markets vs. Government: Where do markets function and
fail in SSA? 30
Slide 31
Asian Green Revolution in Rice Irrigated Rice Farming in SSA
Climate and Crop Yields in India and SSA Upland NERICA Rice in East
and West Africa Soil Fertility, Fertilizer Use, and Maize Green
Revolutions in SSA Chemical Fertilizer and Organic Fertilizer in
Upland Farming in India Experiments on Improved Maize Technology
Adoption in Uganda 31
Slide 32
Small farmers adopt improved maize varieties equally fast and
achieve higher yields than large farmers in Kenya and Uganda. Small
rice farmers achieved higher yields than large farmers in irrigated
areas in Uganda and Mozambique. There is no difference in NERICA
adoption and yield between small and large farms in Uganda. Small
farmers apply larger amount of inorganic fertilizer per ha than
large farmers in Ethiopia. Conclusion: African small farmers are at
least as entrepreneurial and innovative as large farmers, as in the
case of Asia. The inverse correlation between farm size and
productivity (e.g., yield) has been emerging in SSA, like South
Asia. 32
Slide 33
Wheat Rice Maize Sorghum Millet Yield (Ton/ha) Wheat Rice Maize
Sorghu Millet IndiaSub-Saharan Africa Cereal Yields by Crop: India
vs. SSA 2. Transferability of Asian Technology wheat rice maize
sorghum millet
Slide 34
Sorghum and millet: Unpromising as Green Revolution did not
take place even in Asia, and yields are comparable between India
and SSA. Wheat: Promising as yield tripled in SSA but production
area is limited in this region. Maize: Fairly promising as yield
increased from 1.0 t/ha to 1.5 t/ha in SSA but the yield gap is not
so large. Rice: Promising as yield increased from 1.2 t/ha to 1.8
t/ha and the yield gap is still substantial. 34
Slide 35
Using Asian MVs, rice yields per ha are: 5.3 t/ha in irrigated
areas of Senegal River Basin 3-4 t/ha in irrigated areas in Burkina
Faso, Mali, and Niger 3-4 t/ha in irrigated area in Uganda without
any chemical fertilizer 4 t/ha in irrigated area in Tanzania But
only1-2 t/ha in rainfed area of Tanzania, Ghana, and Mozambique.
Rice Green Revolution, using MVs developed in Asia, has been taking
place in irrigated areas in SSA. But yields under rainfed
conditions are deplorably low. Why? 35
Slide 36
36 No bundless and uneven water weed / uneven plant growth
Rainfed parcel without bund Rainfed parcel with bundIrrigated
parcel with bund
Slide 37
37 Before leveling The same place after leveling Impact of
leveling (Mbarali) Straight-row planting Weeding
Slide 38
38
Slide 39
Region MorogoroMbeya RainfedIrrigatedRainfedIrrigated Without
Bund With Bund Without Bund With Bund Paddy Yield
(t/ha)2.03.13.91.32.83.8 Share of leveled plots
(%)20.547.169.833.370.677.1 Share of Asian-type MVs
(%)13.567.290.70.0 1.7 Chemical fertilizer use
(kg/ha)12.064.343.810.145.637.3 39
Slide 40
In Uganda, NERICA yields are 2 t/ha (dropouts) and 3 t/ha
(continuous adopters) in 2004, and 1.5 t/ha (new adopters) and 2.5
t/ha (continuous adopters) in 2009, which are far higher than the
average upland rice yield of 1 t/ha in SSA. In Benin, NERICA yield
is 2.6 t/ha, which is significantly higher than average yield of
other rice varieties, which is 1.6 t/ha. In Cote dIvoire, Gambia,
and Guinea, however, no yield advantage of NERICA is found. 40
Slide 41
Yield in Kenya: 2.2 t/ha with hybrid vs. 1.7 t/ ha with local
and recycled hybrid varieties Yield in Uganda: 1.7 t/ha with hybrid
vs. 1.5 t/ ha with local and recycled varieties Experiment in
Uganda: -- Distributed free hybrid seeds and chemical fertilizer to
randomly chosen 500 HHs and none to 300 HHs in early 2009 -- Sold
seeds and chemical fertilizer to all HH and some neighbors at
market prices and discounted prices with and without credit before
the crop season in 2010 -- Yields improved but not impressively
(see Figure) 41
Slide 42
42 Maize Yield
Slide 43
Well-adapted germplasm is highly specific to location. progress
achieved in one tropical environment cannot be easily replicated in
another. Whether farmers grow improved open-pollinated varieties or
hybrids, they are reliant on seed industry to a much greater than
growers of improved rice or wheat. .. investment in maize research
is required to produce a new generation of improved varieties that
are drought-tolerant, pest-resistant, and nutrient- efficient.
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Slide 44
Since prices of inorganic fertilizer are high and grain prices
at the farm gate are low, Asian-type high-input farming is
inappropriate for SSA. At the same time, it is obvious that high
grain yields cannot be achieved without applying fertilizer. We
found that manure is applied to upland fields not only in India but
also in East Africa where dairy cows are kept in stalls and that it
is complementary to inorganic fertilizer. Conclusion: Mixed
crop-livestock farming system with the use of moderate amount of
both organic and inorganic fertilizer is appropriate for SSA.
Careful crop rotation and the use of nitrogen fixing agroforestry
should be also considered. 44
Slide 45
The impacts of climate (i.e., temperature and rainfall) on crop
yields have been lessened over time in the case of the Green
Revolution crops in India (i.e., rice, wheat, and maize), due
presumably to shorter growth duration of modern varieties. Weaker
but similar changes, i.e., reduced impacts of climate on yields of
rice, maize, and wheat, have been observed in SSA, suggesting the
emerging impacts of Green Revolution technologies in SSA. 45
Slide 46
Distance and road conditions are major determinants of output
and input prices (e.g., maize, rice, milk, and inorganic fertilizer
prices) in Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia, suggesting that unfavorable
relative prices for farmers are due to poor infrastructure, not due
to the malfunctioning of markets. NERICA farmers said that lack of
rice millers in nearby towns was a major constraint on NERICA
adoption in 2004, but rice millers mushroomed since then, which
promoted NERICA adoption. Tentative Conclusion: Although the
evidence is not as concrete as we may wish, it seems that output
and input markets have developed responding to increased demand for
inputs and increased supply of outputs. Similar changes seem to
have taken place in the process of Green Revolution in Asia.
46
Slide 47
Credit market is not working and, thus, lack of credit is
commonly a major constraint on the use of fertilizer. -- Why dont
fertilizer dealers/traders/millers provide fertilizer on credit, as
in Asia? -- Does micro finance work in agriculture in SSA? Weak
extension system is another major constraint on the Green
Revolution in SSA. -- No bunding and leveling in lowland rice
production in many areas in SSA -- Absence of knowledge on hybrid
maize and fertilizer in Uganda -- Deterioration of self-produced
NERICA rice seeds in Uganda, resulting in more than 50%
discontinued adopters in 2004-06. 47
Slide 48
Success: cassava and cotton due to sustained collaboration
between national agricultural research institutions and advanced
institutions that has generated a steady stream of new productive
technology. Some success: dairy-cows in Kenya and maize in Eastern
and Southern Africa, but improvement took place basically one time.
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Slide 49
1.Support smallholders as small farm size is not obstacle to
productivity growth in SSA. As in Asia, smallholder farmers adopt
new technologies as fast as or even faster than large farmers and
achieve higher yields in SSA. 2.Focus on lowland rice, upland rice,
and maize as core strategic crops (possibly cassava and sweat
potatoes could be other promising crops). In particular, lowland
rice has advantage, as the useful technology and production
practices can be directly transferable from Asia to SSA. 49
Slide 50
3.Invest in research not only on new crop varieties but also on
the search for the optimum farming systems based on integrated
dairy and maize production with crop rotation, manure/compost and
fertilizer application, and the use of agroforestry. 4.Strengthen
extension system to boost grain production in the short run.
5.Strengthen research systems (particularly sustained
collaborations between CG centers and national agricultural
research institutions) and increase investments in transportation
infrastructure to improve marketing systems and irrigation to
realize Green Revolution in the longer run. 50