Key Considerations in Linking Key Considerations in Linking Permafrost, Ecosystems and Run-off Permafrost, Ecosystems and Run-off

William J. Gutowski, Jr.William J. Gutowski, Jr.Dept. of Geological & Atmospheric SciencesDept. of Geological & Atmospheric Sciences

Iowa State UniversityIowa State University

Readiness of Existing Models Readiness of Existing Models

for Coupling for Coupling

Land-Atmosphere Water & Energy CyclesLand-Atmosphere Water & Energy Cycles

Complexity of Arctic terrainComplexity of Arctic terrain

1.1. A range of “permanent” land surface types A range of “permanent” land surface types (forest, tundra, wetlands, glaciers)(forest, tundra, wetlands, glaciers)

2.2. Seasonal variation: snow cover, freeze/thaw of Seasonal variation: snow cover, freeze/thaw of soil and water bodiessoil and water bodies

3.3. Mix of hydrological landscapes Mix of hydrological landscapes (unorganized flow (unorganized flow major rivers) major rivers)

Are the fluxes (couplings) well modeled?Are the fluxes (couplings) well modeled?

Ecosystems

Permafrost

Surface Water

(snow cover, albedo)

(ponding, wet soil)

(water availability, nutrients)

Atmosphere

Issue: Resolution of ObservationsIssue: Resolution of Observations

Borehole LocationsBorehole Locations

Issue: Horizontal Resolution of ModelIssue: Horizontal Resolution of Model

Borehole LocationsBorehole Locations~ 0.5˚ grid

Great Bear Lake

Mackenzie River

Issue: Vertical Resolution of ModelIssue: Vertical Resolution of Model

Active Layer Depth Over PermafrostActive Layer Depth Over Permafrost

(31 stations in Siberia; Frauenfeld et al., 2004)(31 stations in Siberia; Frauenfeld et al., 2004)

Issue: Vertical Resolution of ModelIssue: Vertical Resolution of ModelActive Layer Depth Over Active Layer Depth Over PermafrostPermafrost

(31 stations in Siberia; (31 stations in Siberia; Frauenfeld et al., 2004)Frauenfeld et al., 2004)

10 cm10 cm40 cm40 cm

100 cm100 cm

200 cm200 cm NOAH LSMNOAH LSM(Chen and Dudhia, 2001)

Issue: Standard Landcover TypesIssue: Standard Landcover Types1) Broadleaf-evergreen trees1) Broadleaf-evergreen trees2) Broadleaf-deciduous trees2) Broadleaf-deciduous trees3) Broadleaf and needleleaf trees3) Broadleaf and needleleaf trees4) Needleleaf-evergreen trees4) Needleleaf-evergreen trees5) Needleleaf-deciduous trees (larch)5) Needleleaf-deciduous trees (larch)6) Broadleaf trees with groundcover6) Broadleaf trees with groundcover7) Groundcover only7) Groundcover only8) Broadleaf shrubs with groundcover8) Broadleaf shrubs with groundcover9) Broadleaf shrubs with bare soil9) Broadleaf shrubs with bare soil10) Dwarf trees/shrubs with groundcover (tundra)10) Dwarf trees/shrubs with groundcover (tundra)11) Bare soil11) Bare soil12) Cultivations12) Cultivations13) Wetland13) Wetland14) Dry coastal complex14) Dry coastal complex15) Water15) Water16) Glacial16) Glacial

Sufficient Detail?Sufficient Detail?

Both specified asBoth specified as

““12) Cultivations”12) Cultivations”

Need “Data Need “Data Rich” ApproachRich” Approach

Further Challenges to ModelingFurther Challenges to Modeling

• Movement of water and heat in frozen soilMovement of water and heat in frozen soil• Runoff sensitivity to presence/absence of permafrostRunoff sensitivity to presence/absence of permafrost• Annual cycle of river iceAnnual cycle of river ice• Change in landscape structure (e.g., slumping with permafrost Change in landscape structure (e.g., slumping with permafrost

decline)decline)• Change in wetlands (slow, disorganized flow)Change in wetlands (slow, disorganized flow)• Ecosystem evolution as permafrost and runoff change Ecosystem evolution as permafrost and runoff change

(dynamic vegetation modeling)(dynamic vegetation modeling)• Permafrost evolution as ecosystems changePermafrost evolution as ecosystems change

Question/Comments?Question/Comments?