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Statistician: Ryan Pike 0300 025 6415 [email protected]
Enquiries from the press: 0300 025 8099 Public enquiries: 0300 025 5050 Twitter: @statisticswales
Key Economic Statistics – March 2019
21 March 2019
SB 9/2019
Key points
The employment rate in Wales, as estimated by the Labour Force
Survey, was 76.0 per cent of those aged 16-64 during November 2018
to January 2019, up 3.4 percentage points from a year earlier. This is
the second highest employment rate Wales has seen since
comparable records began in 1992.
The UK rate for the same period increased by 0.8 percentage points
over the year to 76.1 per cent.
The unemployment rate in Wales was 4.3 per cent of the economically
active population during November 2018 to January 2019, down 0.5
percentage points from a year earlier.
Employment rate (percentage of population age 16-64)
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Wales
UK
Unemployment rate (percentage of economically inactive population)
2
4
6
8
10
12
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Wales
UK
Source: WG analysis of Labour Force Survey
About this bulletin
This monthly bulletin is a
compendium publication
that brings together the
latest key statistics
relating to the Welsh
economy and labour
market, mainly in the
context of the UK
economy and labour
market.
This bulletin also
contains four national
indicators as defined in
the Well-being of Future
Generations Act 2015.
In this bulletin
This bulletin contains
new data on:
Employment 3
Unemployment 5
Economic Inactivity 7
Workforce Jobs 9
Exports 12
2
Contents
Section Page
1. Employment 3
2. Unemployment 5
3. Economic Inactivity 7
4. Workforce Jobs 9
5. Welsh Short-Term Output Indicators 10
6. Regional Trade in Goods Statistics 12
7. Business Demography 13
8. Earnings 14
9. Future Generations Indicators 15
10. Welsh Government Targets 18
11. Key Quality Information 19
Charts
Chart Page
1.1 Employment rate, persons (percentage of those aged 16-64) 3
1.2 Employment rate, men (percentage of those aged 16-64) 3
1.3 Employment rate, women (percentage of those aged 16-64) 4
1.4 Employment rate, NUTS2 areas (four quarter rolling average, percentage of those aged 16-64, not seasonally adjusted)
4
1.5 Public sector employment (percentage of population, not seasonally adjusted) 5
2.1 ILO unemployment rates (percentage of economically active) 5
2.2 ILO unemployment rate, NUTS2 areas (four quarter rolling average, percentage of economically active, not seasonally adjusted)
5
2.3 Long-term ILO unemployment rates (percentage of all unemployed: four quarter rolling average) 6
2.4 Youth ILO unemployment rates (percentage of economically active: four quarter rolling average, not seasonally adjusted)
7
3.1 Economic inactivity rate, persons (percentage of those aged 16-64) 7
3.2 Economic inactivity rate, men (percentage of those aged 16-64) 8
3.3 Economic inactivity rate, women (percentage of those aged 16-64) 8
3.4 Economic inactivity rate, NUTS2 areas (four quarter rolling average, percentage of those aged 16-64, not seasonally adjusted)
9
4.1 Workforce jobs (Index 1999=100) 9
4.2 Self-employment jobs (Index 1999=100) 10
5.1 Index of production (Index 2016=100) 10
5.2 Index of manufacturing (Index 2016=100) 11
5.3 Index of construction (Index 2016=100) 11
5.4 Index of market services (Index 2016=100) 12
6.1 Value of exports (Index 1999 = 100) 12
7.1 VAT/PAYE registered enterprise births (births per 10,000 population aged 16-64) 13
7.2 VAT/PAYE registered enterprises (enterprise stock per 10,000 population aged 16-64) 13
8.1 Gross weekly pay, median average (Wales as a percentage of the UK) 14
8.2 Gross value added / Gross disposable household income per head 14
9.1 Percentage of people in employment on permanent contracts (or temporary contracts and not seeking permanent employment) and who earn more than two thirds of the UK median wage
16
9.2 Gender pay gap in median average gross weekly earnings, full-time workers 16
10.1 ILO Unemployment rate, persons (percentage of the economically active) 18
10.2 Economic inactivity rate, persons (percentage of those aged 16-64) 18
3
1. Employment
There were 1.5 million people in employment in Wales in November 2018 to January 2019, up
78,000 (5.4 per cent) from the same period a year earlier. This is a rate of 76.0 per cent of those
aged 16-64, up by 3.4 percentage points from the same period a year earlier. This is the second
highest employment rate since comparable records began. The highest employment rate was in
October to December 2018. The total number in employment in the UK over the same period rose
by 473,000 (1.5 per cent) to 32.7 million. This is a rate of 76.1 per cent of those aged 16-64; 0.1
percentage points higher than the rate for Wales (Chart 1.1).
Chart 1.1: Employment rate, persons (percentage of those aged 16-64)
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
Nov-Jan 15 Nov-Jan 16 Nov-Jan 17 Nov-Jan 18 Nov-Jan 19
Wales
UK
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Labour Force Survey
There were 806,000 men in employment in Wales in November 2018 to January 2019, up 34,000
(4.4 per cent) from the same period a year earlier. This is a rate of 80.4 per cent of those aged 16-
64, up 3.6 percentage points from the same period a year earlier. The number of men in
employment in the UK over the same period rose by 226,000 (1.3 per cent) to 17.3 million. This is
a rate of 80.5 per cent of those aged 16-64, up 0.7 percentage points from a year earlier. (Chart
1.2)
Chart 1.2: Employment rate, men (percentage of those aged 16-64)
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
Nov-Jan 15 Nov-Jan 16 Nov-Jan 17 Nov-Jan 18 Nov-Jan 19
Wales
UK
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Labour Force Survey
There were 721,000 women in employment in Wales in November 2018 to January 2019, up
44,000 (6.5 per cent) from the same period a year earlier. This is a rate of 71.7 per cent of those
aged 16-64, up 3.2 percentage points from the same period a year earlier. The number of women
4
in employment in the UK was 15.4 million, up 246,000 (1.6 per cent) over the year. This is a rate of
71.8 per cent of those aged 16-64, up from 70.9 per cent a year earlier. (Chart 1.3)
Chart 1.3: Employment rate, women (percentage of those aged 16-64)
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
Nov-Jan 15 Nov-Jan 16 Nov-Jan 17 Nov-Jan 18 Nov-Jan 19
Wales
UK
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Labour Force Survey
For the year ending September 2018 the employment level in West Wales and the Valleys was up
2,200 (0.3 per cent) over the year and up 8,500 (1.5 per cent) in East Wales. Over the same
period, the employment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points in West Wales and the Valleys
and 1.2 percentage points in East Wales – differences calculated using unrounded figures. (Chart
1.4)
Chart 1.4: Employment rate, NUTS2 areas (four quarter rolling average, percentage of those aged 16-64, not seasonally adjusted)
65
70
75
80
y/e Sep 14 y/e Sep 15 y/e Sep 16 y/e Sep 17 y/e Sep 18
Wales
East Wales
West Wales and the Valleys
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Annual Population Survey
There were 292,000 people employed in the public sector in Wales in 2018 Q4, down 4.8 per cent
from a year earlier. This is 9.3 per cent of the population, down 0.4 percentage points from the
same quarter a year earlier. Public sector employment in the UK over the same period increased
by 30,000 (0.6 per cent) to 5.4 million. This is 8.1 per cent of the population, the same as a year
earlier (percentage change calculated using unrounded figures). (Chart 1.5)
5
Chart 1.5: Public sector employment (percentage of population, not seasonally adjusted)
7
8
9
10
11
12
2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017Q4 2018Q4
Wales
UK
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Regional Public Sector Employment, ONS
2. Unemployment1
There were 68,000 people who were unemployed in Wales in November 2018 to January 2019,
down 4,000 (5.8 per cent) from the same period a year earlier. This is a rate of 4.3 per cent of the
economically active population, down 0.5 percentage points from a year earlier. The number of
unemployed people in the UK over the same period fell by 112,000 (7.7 per cent) to 1.3 million.
This is a rate of 3.9 per cent of the economically active population, down from 4.3 per cent a year
earlier. (Chart 2.1)
Chart 2.1: ILO unemployment rates (percentage of economically active)
2
4
6
8
Nov-Jan 15 Nov-Jan 16 Nov-Jan 17 Nov-Jan 18 Nov-Jan 19
Wales
UK
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Labour Force Survey
For the year ending September 2018 the unemployment level in West Wales and the Valleys was
down 100 (0.2 per cent) over the year. For East Wales the level was down 2,900 (11.0 per cent)
over the year. Over the same period, the unemployment rate was unchanged in West Wales and
the Valleys and fell by 0.5 percentage points in East Wales. (Chart 2.2)
1 The International Labour Organisation (ILO) defines unemployment as people without a job who have
actively sought work in the last four weeks and are available to start work in the next two weeks, plus those who are out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start in the next two weeks.
6
Chart 2.2: ILO unemployment rate, NUTS2 areas (four quarter rolling average, percentage of economically active, not seasonally adjusted)
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
y/e Sep 14 y/e Sep 15 y/e Sep 16 y/e Sep 17 y/e Sep 18
Wales
East Wales
West Wales and the Valleys
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Annual Population Survey
For the year ending September 2018 the Annual Population Survey (APS) estimates that 17,400
people in Wales were long-term unemployed (12 months or more), down 13.9 per cent over the
year. This represented 25.0 per cent of all those unemployed in the year, down 2.9 percentage
points over the year. The equivalent UK rate was 25.6 per cent, down 0.2 percentage points over
the year. (Chart 2.3)
Chart 2.3: Long-term ILO unemployment rates (percentage of all unemployed: four quarter
rolling average)
20
25
30
35
40
y/e Sep14 y/e Sep 15 y/e Sep 16 y/e Sep 17 y/e Sep 18
Wales
UK
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Annual Population Survey
For the year ending September 2018 the APS estimates that 29,800 people aged 16-24 in Wales
were unemployed, down 1.2 per cent over the year. This represented 13.9 per cent of the
economically active in this age group, down 0.3 percentage points over the year. The equivalent
UK rate was 11.7 per cent, down 0.4 percentage points over the year. (Chart 2.4)
7
Chart 2.4: Youth ILO unemployment rates (percentage of economically active: four quarter rolling average, not seasonally adjusted)
10
15
20
25
y/e Sep 14 y/e Sep 15 y/e Sep 16 y/e Sep 17 y/e Sep 18
Wales
UK
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Annual Population Survey
3. Economic inactivity
There were 391,000 people in Wales who were economically inactive in November 2018 to
January 2019, down 60,000 (13.2 per cent) from the same period a year earlier. This is a rate of
20.5 per cent of those aged 16-64, down 3.1 percentage points from the same period a year
earlier. The number of economically inactive people in the UK over the same period fell by 194,000
(2.2 per cent) to 8.5 million. This is a rate of 20.7 per cent of those aged 16-64, down from 21.2 per
cent a year earlier. (Chart 3.1)
Chart 3.1: Economic inactivity rate, persons (percentage of those aged 16-64)
20
22
24
26
28
Nov-Jan 15 Nov-Jan 16 Nov-Jan 17 Nov-Jan 18 Nov-Jan 19
Wales
UK
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Labour Force Survey
There were 150,000 economically inactive men in Wales in November 2018 to January 2019,
down 38,000 (20.3 per cent) from the same period a year earlier. This is a rate of 15.7 per cent of
those aged 16-64, down from 19.8 per cent a year earlier. The number of economically inactive
men in the UK over the same period decreased by 116,000 (3.4 per cent) to 3.3 million. This is a
rate of 16.0 per cent of those aged 16-64, down from 16.6 per cent a year earlier. (Chart 3.2)
8
Chart 3.2: Economic inactivity rate, men (percentage of those aged 16-64)
14
16
18
20
22
24
Nov-Jan 15 Nov-Jan 16 Nov-Jan 17 Nov-Jan 18 Nov-Jan 19
Wales
UK
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Labour Force Survey
There were 241,000 economically inactive women in Wales in November 2018 to January 2019,
down 21,000 (8.2 per cent) from the same period a year earlier. This is a rate of 25.1 per cent of
those aged 16-64, down from 27.3 per cent a year earlier. The number of economically inactive
women in the UK over the same period fell by 78,000 (1.5 per cent) to 5.3 million. This is a rate of
25.3 per cent of those aged 16-64, down from 25.8 per cent a year earlier. (Chart 3.3)
Chart 3.3: Economic inactivity rate, women (percentage of those aged 16-64)
24
26
28
30
32
Nov-Jan 15 Nov-Jan 16 Nov-Jan 17 Nov-Jan 18 Nov-Jan 19
Wales
UK
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Labour Force Survey
For the year ending September 2018 the economic inactivity level in West Wales and the Valleys
was down 4,300 (1.4 per cent) over the year. For East Wales the level was down 6,000 (3.7 per
cent) over the year. Over the same period, the economic inactivity rate was down 0.3 percentage
points in West Wales and the Valleys and down 0.8 percentage points in East Wales - differences
calculated using unrounded figures. (Chart 3.4)
9
Chart 3.4: Economic inactivity rate, NUTS2 areas (four quarter rolling average, percentage of those aged 16-64, not seasonally adjusted)
20
22
24
26
28
30
y/e Sep 14 y/e Sep 15 y/e Sep 16 y/e Sep 17 y/e Sep 18
Wales
East Wales
West Wales and the Valleys
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Annual Population Survey
4. Workforce jobs
The number of workforce jobs in Wales decreased by 12,000 (0.9 per cent) between December
2017 and December 2018 to 1.45 million. Between December 1999 and December 2018 the
number of workforce jobs in Wales rose by 190,000 (15.1 per cent). The number of workforce jobs
in the UK increased by 415,000 (1.2 per cent) to 35.3 million over the year and increased by 5.6
million (18.7 per cent) since December 1999. (Chart 4.1)
Chart 4.1: Workforce jobs (Index 1999=100)
90
100
110
120
130
Dec-99 Dec-01Dec-03 Dec-05Dec-07Dec-09 Dec-11Dec-13Dec-15 Dec-17
UK
Wales
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Workforce Jobs, ONS
The number of self-employment jobs in Wales decreased by 12,000 (5.6 per cent) between
December 2017 and December 2018 to 202,000 (14.0 per cent of workforce jobs compared to 11.5
per cent in December 1999). The estimate of the number of self-employment jobs in the UK was
4.6 million, up 106,000 (2.4 per cent) over the year (13.0 per cent of workforce jobs compared to
10.9 per cent in December 1999). (Chart 4.2)
10
Chart 4.2: Self-employment jobs (Index 1999=100)
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Dec-99 Dec-01 Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-17
Wales
UK
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Workforce Jobs, ONS
5. Welsh Short-Term Output Indicators
Production output in Wales for the year ending September 2018 decreased by 2.8 per cent
compared with the year ending September 2017. The UK index increased by 1.5 per cent over the
same period. Production output in Wales for 2018 quarter 3 decreased by 0.3 per cent compared
with the previous quarter. The UK index increased by 0.6 per cent over the same period. (Chart
5.1)
Chart 5.1: Index of production (Index 2016=100)
80
90
100
110
120
Q3 99 Q3 01 Q3 03 Q3 05 Q3 07 Q3 09 Q3 11 Q3 13 Q3 15 Q3 17
UK
Wales
Source: Welsh Government
Manufacturing output in Wales for the year ending September 2018 decreased by 1.0 per cent
compared with the year ending September 2017. UK output increased by 2.2 per cent over the
same period. Manufacturing output in Wales for 2018 quarter 3 decreased by 0.1 per cent
compared with the previous quarter and the UK index increased by 0.4 per cent over the same
period. (Chart 5.2)
11
Chart 5.2: Index of manufacturing (Index 2016=100)
75
85
95
105
115
Q3 99 Q3 01 Q3 03 Q3 05 Q3 07 Q3 09 Q3 11 Q3 13 Q3 15 Q3 17
UK
Wales
Source: Welsh Government
Construction output in Wales for the year ending September 2018 increased by 13.2 per cent
compared with the year ending September 2017. UK output also increased by 1.4 per cent over
the same period. Construction output in Wales for 2018 quarter 3 increased by 10.9 per cent
compared with the previous quarter and the UK index increased by 2.3 per cent over the same
period. (Chart 5.3)
Chart 5.3: Index of construction (Index 2016=100)
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Q3 99 Q3 01 Q3 03 Q3 05 Q3 07 Q3 09 Q3 11 Q3 13 Q3 15 Q3 17
UK
Wales
Source: Welsh Government
The Index of Market Services for Wales for the year ending September 2018 increased by 1.1 per
cent compared with the year ending September 2017. The UK index increased by 2.0 per cent
over the same period. Services for Wales for 2018 quarter 3 increased by 0.5 per cent compared
with the previous quarter and the UK index increased by 0.7 per cent over the same period. (Chart
5.4)
12
Chart 5.4: Index of market services (Index 2016=100)
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Q3 99 Q3 01 Q3 03 Q3 05 Q3 07 Q3 09 Q3 11 Q3 13 Q3 15 Q3 17
Wales
UK
Source: Welsh Government
6. Regional trade in goods statistics
Please note that due to methodology changes, data before and after 2013 quarter 1 are not
comparable.
In 2018, the value of exports of goods from Wales increased by 4.2 per cent compared with 2017.
Exports to EU countries accounted for 61.2 per cent of total exports in 2018, up from 60.5 per cent
in the previous year. The value of exports for the UK in 2018 increased by 2.6 per cent over the
previous year. Exports to EU countries accounted for 49.9 per cent of the UK total in 2018, up from
49.4 per cent in 2017. (Chart 6.1)
Chart 6.1: Value of exports (Index 1999 = 100) a b
80
120
160
200
240
280
Q4 99 Q4 01 Q4 03 Q4 05 Q4 07 Q4 09 Q4 11 Q4 13 Q4 15 Q4 17
UK
Wales
New Methodology(2013 Q1-)
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Regional Trade in Goods Statistics, HMRC a
From 1 May 2016 there was a methodological change to the way the non-EU trade-in-goods statistics are compiled
from the ‘General Trade’ system to ‘Special Trade’. The chart is based on ‘General Trade’ for 1999 to 2011 and ‘Special Trade’ from 2012 onwards. Comparisons of current data with time period prior to 2013 are invalid. b From 2013 HMRC changed the method of allocating exports to countries and regions, so exports are allocated based
on the population of employees in each region rather than the location of the head office.
13
7. Business demography2
In Wales there were 73 VAT/PAYE registered enterprise births per 10,000 people aged 16-64 in
2017, an increase of 16.5 per cent on the year. The UK had 92 VAT/PAYE births per 10,000
people aged 16-64 in 2017, down 8.0 per cent over the year. (Chart 7.1)
Chart 7.1: VAT/PAYE registered enterprise births (births per 10,000 population aged 16-64)
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
UK
Wales
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Business Demography
In Wales there were 535 VAT/PAYE registered enterprises per 10,000 people aged 16-64 in 2017,
an increase of 4.4 percent over the year. The UK had 704 VAT/PAYE registered enterprises per
10,000 people aged 16-64 in 2017, up 3.0 per cent over the year. (Chart 7.2)
Chart 7.2: VAT/PAYE registered enterprises (enterprise stock per 10,000 population aged 16-64)
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Wales
UK
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Business Demography
2 Not all businesses are registered for VAT/PAYE. Many small businesses trading below the VAT/PAYE
threshold will not be included. The estimates for Wales only include those enterprises headquartered in
Wales.
14
8. Earnings
Workplace based median average gross weekly earnings of full-time employees in Wales
increased from £498.30 to £509.00 between April 2017 and April 2018, and the UK increased from
£550.00 to £569.00. Wales as a percentage of the UK average therefore decreased from 90.6 per
cent to 89.5 per cent. Residence based, median average gross weekly earnings in Wales
increased from £505.70 to £518.60, which was 91.1 per cent of the UK average a fall from 91.9 per
cent in the previous year. (Chart 8.1)
Chart 8.1: Gross weekly pay, median average (Wales a percentage of the UK) a,b,c
86
88
90
92
94
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
We
ek
ly G
ros
s P
ay (
% o
f U
K) Wales
Residence
Wales Workplace
Source: Welsh Government analysis Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, ONS a Full-time employees earning full adult rate and whose pay was not affected by absence.
b Workplace and residence based UK figures are the same.
c There are discontinuties in the time-series in 2004, 2006 and 2011. See ONS.
In 2017, total Gross Value Added (GVA) for Wales was £62.2 billion and GVA per head of the
population was £19,899. GVA per head was 72.9 per cent of the UK figure (excluding extra-regio),
down 0.1 percentage points on the year. Wales had the lowest level of GVA per head out of the UK
countries and English regions, just behind the North East and Northern Ireland, where GVA per
head was £20,129 per head and £21,172 per head, respectively. (Chart 8.2)
Gross disposable household income (GDHI) in 2016 for Wales was £49.3 billion or £15,835 per
head of population. This represented 81.5 per cent of the UK figure, down from 81.4 per cent in
2015. GDHI per head in Wales is closer to the UK average than GVA per head, and is higher than
that for Northern Ireland and the North East of England. (Chart 8.2)
Chart 8.2: Gross value added / Gross disposable household income per head
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
GDHI
GVA
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Regional Accounts, ONS
15
9. Future Generations Indicators3
9.1 National indicator 11 - Percentage of businesses which are innovation active (not
National Statistics)
The Department for Business, Innovation and Skills publish information on innovation active
businesses every two years using data from the UK Innovation Survey. The definition of innovation
active used is:
Introduction of a new or significantly improved product (goods or service) or process;
Engagement in innovation projects not yet complete or abandoned; New and significantly
improved forms of organisation, business structures or practices and marketing concepts or
strategies. It excludes expenditure and activities linked to innovation.
Table 9.1 shows the percentage of businesses which were innovation active in both Wales and the
UK. Between 2014 and 2016 the percentage of businesses which were innovation active in Wales
was 46.5 per cent. This compares with 45.0 per cent in Scotland, 38.8 per cent in Northern Ireland
and 49.0 per cent for the UK overall. Wales was ninth highest of the 12 UK countries and English
regions, ahead of Northern Ireland, the North East and Scotland (38.8, 42.0 and 45.0 per cent
respectively). More information is available in the UK Innovation Survey 2017 report.
Table 9.1: Percentage of businesses which are innovation active
Source: Department for Business, Innovation and Skills
9.2 National indicator 16 - Percentage of people in employment who are on permanent contracts (or on temporary contracts and not seeking permanent employment) and who earn more than two thirds of the UK median wage (not National Statistics)
In Wales, 66.2 per cent of people in employment were either on permanent contracts (or have a
temporary contract and are not seeking permanent employment) and were earning more than two
thirds of the UK median wage for July to September 2017. This is an increase from 62.2 per cent
for July to September 2016. Figures are for a four quarter trailing average; for example, the figure
for 2017 quarter 1 is an average of 2016 quarters 4, 3 and 2, and 2017 quarter.
The figures for all employees are subject to variation due to changes in the number of part-time
employees in the sample, and the number of hours those part-time employees work. The
equivalent figure for full-time employees only for July to September 2017 is 66.1 per cent, up from
63.2 per cent in July to September 2016. This compares with the UK average of 70.6 per cent in
July to September 2017, up from 702 per cent for the same period in 2016.
3 Section 11.7 provides background to these indicators and the Well-being of Future Generations Act 2015.
Wales UK
2008-10 40.6 36.8
2010-12 46.6 44.4
2012-14 50.8 53.0
2014-16 46.5 49.0
16
Wales is ranked seventh of the 12 UK countries and regions; London has the highest percentage
(78.8 per cent) followed by the South East (75.3 per cent) and East (73.4 per cent).
Chart 9.1: Percentage of people in employment on permanent contracts (or temporary contracts and not seeking permanent employment) and who earn more than two thirds of the UK median wage a
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
2015q4 2016q1 2016q2 2016q3 2016q4 2017q1 2017q2 2017q3
Wales FT Wales All UK FT UK All
Source: WG analysis of Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings and Labour Force Survey, ONS a Four quarter average. UK median wage data is from ASHE for employees earning a full adult rate and whose pay was
not affected by absence. 2017 ASHE data is provisional.
9.3 National indicator 17 - Gender pay difference
The median gross weekly earnings of full-time employees in 2018 in Wales were £541.6 for males
and £469.5 for females. This is a difference of £72.1 (Chart 9.2). Males earned 15.4 per cent more
than females in 2018 in Wales, up from 15.3 per cent in 2017. This compares with males earning
19.6 per cent more than females in the UK in 2018, down from 19.8 per cent in 2017.
Chart 9.2: Gender pay gap in median average gross weekly earnings, full-time workers a,b,c
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Office for National Statistics a Full-time employees earning full adult rate and whose pay was not affected by absence.
b Wales figures are workplace based. Workplace and residence based UK figures are the same.
c There are discontinuities in the time-series in 2004, 2006 and 2011. See ONS.
Wales had the second smallest gender pay difference of the 12 UK countries and regions in 2018,
behind Northern Ireland (£35.3). However, median average gross weekly earnings in Wales in
2018 for all full-time employees were £509, which is the second lowest of all UK countries and
English regions and below the UK average of £569.
£60
£70
£80
£90
£100
£110
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Wales UK
17
9.4 National indicator 21 - Percentage of people in employment
The latest estimate of the employment rate for Wales from the Annual Population Survey (APS) of
those aged 16-64 is 72.6 per cent for the year ending September 2018, up from 71.9 per cent for
the year ending September 2017. The UK rate was 75.0 per cent for the year ending September
2018, up from 74.4 per cent for the year ending September 2017. A time-series of employment
rates from the APS is available on StatsWales.
The APS estimate for Wales compares with the estimate from the Labour Force Survey of 75.8 per
cent during September 2018 to November 2018, given in Section 1. Section 10.5 outlines the
reasons for the difference between the estimates from the two surveys.
9.5 National indicator 20 - Percentage of people moderately satisfied with their jobs
The National Survey for Wales estimates that 82 per cent of people aged 16 or over in employment
were moderately satisfied with their jobs, for 2017-18. Across Wales the percentage of people
moderately or very satisfied with their jobs ranged from 74 in Neath Port Talbot to 86 per cent in
Ceredigion and Merthyr Tydfil. The underlying data can be found on StatsWales.
18
10. Welsh Government targets
As part of its Employability Plan the Welsh Government established targets to eliminate the gaps in
unemployment and economic inactivity rates between Wales and the UK within 10 years. These
targets are assessed using the Annual Population Survey.
For the year ending September 2018, the unemployment rate in Wales was 4.6 per cent of the
economically active population. For the same period, the UK rate was 4.2 per cent. This is a gap of
0.4 percentage points between Wales and the UK.
Chart 10.1: ILO Unemployment rate, persons (percentage of the economically active)
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
UK
Wales
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Annual Population Survey
For the year ending September 2018, the economic inactivity rate in Wales was 23.8 per cent of
those aged 16-64. For the same period, the UK rate was 21.7 per cent. This is a gap of 2.1
percentage points between Wales and the UK.
Chart 10.2: Economic inactivity rate, persons (percentage of those aged 16-64)
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
UK
Wales
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Annual Population Survey
19
11. Key quality information
11.1 Relevance
This monthly bulletin is a compendium publication that brings together the latest key statistics
relating to the Welsh economy and labour market, mainly in the context of the UK economy and
labour market. The headline Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates in the bulletin are published by
ONS in their Labour Market Statistical Bulletin which includes headline figures for Wales as a
whole.
This bulletin provides a more detailed breakdown of the Wales data than the ONS bulletin and
presents those estimates alongside other headline estimates for the economy and labour market
for Wales. These statistics are used by the Welsh Government to monitor the headline statistics for
the Welsh economy as well as providing comparisons to the UK economy.
This bulletin is used by other public sector organisations, businesses, academia and private
individuals as a means of identifying the key trends in the headline economic and labour market
statistics for Wales. Our 2012 user consultation provides more information on how our outputs are
used.
11.2 Accuracy
Some of the data in this bulletin is based on sample surveys meaning it is subject to sampling
variability. Table 11.1 shows 95 per cent confidence intervals for the headline labour market
measures from the Labour Force Survey. This means that there is a 95 per cent chance that the
true value is contained in the range shown.
Table 11.1: 95% confidence intervals for LFS figures: Wales, November 2018 to January 2019
Numbers in thousands
Lower
limit Estimate
Upper
limit
Lower
limit
Quarterly
change
Upper
limit
Lower
limit
Annual
change
Upper
limit
Employment level 1,489 1,527 1,566 -22 28 78 26 78 130
Employment rate 74.2% 76.0% 77.9% -1.6% 0.8% 3.2% 0.8% 3.4% 6.0%
Unemployment level 52 68 84 -24 -2 19 -27 -4 18
Unemployment rate 3.3% 4.3% 5.3% -1.6% -0.2% 1.2% -2.0% -0.5% 1.0%
Economically active level 1,560 1,595 1,631 -20 26 72 26000 74 121
Economic activity rate 77.9% 79.5% 81.2% -1.5% 0.7% 2.8% 0.8% 3.1% 5.4%
Economically inactive level 348 391 434 -68 -12 43 -118 -60 -1
Estimates Quarterly changes Annual changes
Source: Office for National Statistics
The Welsh Government revisions policy is available from the Statistics and Research website.
Where the data is not from the Welsh Government, the revisions policy of the individual
Government department is followed. The majority of the data in this release is from the ONS and
their revisions policy applies.
Claimant Count has been removed from the ONS labour market release because it may now be
providing a misleading representation of the UK labour market. From June 2015 the Claimant
Count statistics were designated as experimental due to the impact of Universal Credit, which is
20
designed so a broader span of claimants is required to look for work than under Jobseeker's
Allowance.
This means that once Universal Credit is fully rolled out, the Claimant Count is likely to be higher
than it would otherwise be under Jobseeker's Allowance. The impact has increased as roll-out of
Universal Credit has progressed and the seasonally-adjusted claimant count series has become
more volatile. The Welsh Government will continue to publish Claimant Count data on StatsWales.
The full ONS statement is available via their website.
This bulletin previously included statistics on working age benefits claimants by client group, based
on Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) data. DWP no longer produces this series and the
full statement is available via the Nomis website.
DWP now publishes a Benefit Combinations dataset on their StatsXplore website which provides
both Working Age and Pension Age statistics on the number of individuals claiming a DWP benefit
in total and to show the key combinations of benefits claimed. We are in the process of assessing
whether this new data source is appropriate for our uses and/or publication.
11.3 Timeliness and punctuality
This bulletin follows the ONS publication schedule of labour market data, available on the National
Statistics Release Calendar. Table 11.2 lists the date of last update and next update for each data
source.
Table 11.2: Summary of data sources Data Source Last Updated Next Updated
Average earnings Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, ONS 25-Oct-2018 Oct-2019
Economic inactivity rate Labour Force Survey, ONS 19-Mar-2019 16-Apr-2019
Economic inactivity rate (NUTS2) Annual Population Survey, ONS 15-Jan-2019 27-Mar-2019
Employment rate Labour Force Survey, ONS 19-Mar-2019 16-Apr-2019
Employment rate (NUTS2) Annual Population Survey, ONS 15-Jan-2019 27-Mar-2019
Gross Disposable Household Income Regional Accounts, ONS 24-May-2018 May-2019
Gross Value Added Regional Accounts, ONS 12-Dec-2018 Dec-2019
ILO unemployment rate Labour Force Survey, ONS 19-Mar-2019 16-Apr-2019
ILO unemployment rate (NUTS2) Annual Population Survey, ONS 15-Jan-2019 27-Mar-2019
Index of Construction Welsh Government 24-Jan-2019 Apr-2019
Index of Manufacturing Welsh Government 24-Jan-2019 Apr-2019
Index of Market Services Welsh Government 24-Jan-2019 Apr-2019
Index of Production Welsh Government 24-Jan-2019 Apr-2019
Out of work benefit claimants Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study, DWP
17-May-2017 No longer
updated
Public sector employment Regional Public Sector Employment, ONS 19-Mar-2019 Jun-2019
Self-employment jobs Workforce jobs, ONS 19-Mar-2019 Jun-2019
Value of Exports Regional Trade in Goods Statistics, HMRC 07-Mar-2019 Jun-2019
VAT/PAYE Registered Enterprises Business Demography 21-Nov-2018 Nov-2019
Workforce jobs Workforce jobs, ONS 19-Mar-2019 Jun-2019
National indicator 11 UK Innovation Survey 24-Oct-2018 2020
National indicator 16 Labour Force Survey & Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, ONS
17-Nov-2017 2019
Gender pay difference Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, ONS 25-Oct-2018 Oct-2019
Percentage of people in employment Annual Population Survey, ONS 15-Jan-2019 27-Mar-2019
National indicator 20 National Survey for Wales 20-Jun-2018 Jun-2019
21
11.4 Accessibility and clarity
Much of the data behind the charts shown in this bulletin can be found on StatsWales, links to
which are provided in Table 11.3. Links to Welsh Government statistical headlines are also
provided where applicable.
Table 11.3: StatsWales and WG headline links
Measure Data Link WG Headline Link
Claimant count
Economic inactivity rate
Employment rate
Exports
Gross Disposable Household Income
Gross Value Added
Gross weekly pay
Out of work benefit claimants
Public sector employment
Self-employment jobs
Unemployment rate
VAT/PAYE registered enterprise births
VAT/PAYE registered enterprises
Workforce jobs
Businesses Innovation Active (FG indicator)
Employment above ⅔ UK median wage (FG indicator)
Gender Pay Gap (FG indicator)
Employment (FG indicator)
11.5 Comparability and coherence
Comparable measures for other UK countries for the data published in this bulletin are published
on StatsWales and on the ONS website, which can be accessed using the data links in Table 10.3.
Labour Force Survey and Annual Population Survey
Estimates of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity are available from both the LFS
and the Annual Population Survey (APS). Estimates from the LFS are based on a rolling quarter
and are updated monthly. The sample sizes are too low in the LFS to produce reliable estimates
for geographies below Wales level. Estimates from the APS are based on a rolling twelve months,
updated each quarter. The APS uses a bigger sample than the LFS so is used to produce
estimates for geographies in Wales. At Wales level, the APS is a slightly more robust measure
than the LFS but it is less timely and slower to adapt to changes in the labour market.
Employment and Workforce Jobs
Employment figures differ between the LFS estimates and Workforce Jobs. Primarily this is
because people with more than one job are counted once in the LFS but more than once in
Workforce Jobs. The LFS does not cover people living in most types of communal establishments
and Workforce Jobs excludes unpaid family workers.
22
ILO Unemployment and Claimant Count
There are two different measures of unemployment used in official UK statistics, the headline
International Labour Organisation (ILO) measure recorded by the LFS and the claimant count
measure. Each is subject to advantages and disadvantages.
The headline ILO measure is a count of those who are out of work and want a job, or have actively
sought work in the last four weeks and are available to start work in the next two weeks; plus those
who are out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start in the next two weeks. It is the
broader measure of unemployment. However, it is sourced from a survey so the results are subject
to sampling error. Wales data is subject to higher variability than UK level data because of the
smaller sample size.
The claimant count is a count of all those claiming unemployment related benefits (currently
Jobseekers Allowance plus some claimants of Universal Credit). As such it excludes those who are
unemployed who are not eligible to claim, and those who do not wish to claim. However, it is a
count of all claimants and is not subject to any sampling variability. It can therefore be
disaggregated to very high levels of detail, and in particular, changes measured over the short term
are more robust than for the headline unemployment measure.
11.6 Technical notes
Some of the data in this bulletin are presented as index numbers. Index numbers take the data for
each time period and divide them by the figure for the reference period, and multiply the result by
100. A figure of above 100 for a given time period then indicates that the figure is higher than that
for the reference period, whilst a figure of below 100 indicates that it is lower than that for the
reference period. Data on workforce jobs, self-employment jobs and exports are presented as
indices referenced to 1999 = 100. The indices of production, manufacturing and construction and
the index of market services are each referenced to 2016 = 100.
Data series shown are seasonally adjusted unless stated otherwise. Seasonal adjustment is the
process of removing variations associated with the time of year from a time-series and enables
comparisons of labour market statistics to be made since the previous quarter or previous month.
Labour market data for Wales is seasonally adjusted but for geographies within Wales only non
seasonally adjusted data is available.
11.7 National Statistics status
The United Kingdom Statistics Authority has designated these statistics as National Statistics, in
accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with
the Code of Practice for Statistics.
National Statistics status means that official statistics meet the highest standards of
trustworthiness, quality and public value, and it is our responsibility to maintain compliance with
these standards.
All official statistics should comply with all aspects of the Code of Practice for Statistics. They are
awarded National Statistics status following an assessment by the UK Statistics Authority’s
23
regulatory arm. The Authority considers whether the statistics meet the highest standards of Code
compliance, including the value they add to public decisions and debate.
The statistics underwent a full assessment against the Code of Practice in 2010.
It is Welsh Government’s responsibility to maintain compliance with the standards expected of
National Statistics. If we become concerned about whether these statistics are still meeting the
appropriate standards, we will discuss any concerns with the Authority promptly. National Statistics
status can be removed at any point when the highest standards are not maintained, and reinstated
when standards are restored.
11.8 Well-being of Future Generations Act (WFG)
The Well-being of Future Generations Act 2015 is about improving the social, economic,
environmental and cultural well-being of Wales. The Act puts in place seven well-being goals for
Wales. These are for a more equal, prosperous, resilient, healthier and globally responsible Wales,
with cohesive communities and a vibrant culture and thriving Welsh language. Under section
(10)(1) of the Act, the Welsh Ministers must (a) publish indicators (“national indicators”) that must
be applied for the purpose of measuring progress towards the achievement of the Well-being
goals, and (b) lay a copy of the national indicators before the National Assembly. The 46 national
indicators were laid in March 2016 and this release includes five of the national indicators:
(11) percentage of businesses which are innovation active
(16) percentage of people in employment who are on permanent contracts (or on
temporary contracts and not seeking permanent employment) and who earn more than two
thirds of the UK median wage
(17) gender pay difference
(21) percentage of people in employment
(20) Percentage of people moderately satisfied with their jobs
Data on indicator 9 (Gross Value Added (GVA) per hour worked) and indicator 10 (Gross
Disposable Household Income per head) is available from ONS.
Information on the indicators, along with narratives for each of the well-being goals and associated
technical information is available in the Well-being of Wales report.
As national indicators under the Act they must be referred to in the analyses of local well-being
produced by public services boards when they are analysing the state of economic, social,
environmental and cultural well-being in their areas.
Further information on the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015.
The statistics included in this release could also provide supporting narrative to the national
indicators and be used by public services boards in relation to their local well-being assessments
and local well-being plans.
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11.9 Further details
Links
This document is available on our website:
https://gov.wales/key-economic-statistics-november-2018-january-2019
A comprehensive data sources guide which provides a summary of the main official data sources
used by the Economic and Labour Market Statistics branch as well as useful links has been
published.
The National Survey for Wales methodology and quality reports can be found on the Welsh
Government website.
More information on the data sources can also be found in the Quality and Methodology
Information reports published by ONS on Labour Market, Claimant Count, Public Sector
Employment and Workforce Jobs data.
Next update
16 April 2019 (Headline)
18 April 2019 (Key Economic Statistics bulletin)
We want your feedback
We welcome any feedback on any aspect of these statistics which can be provided by email to
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