Key problems in the evidence base in Britain's migration debate

The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford

COMPAS Breakfast Briefing13 May 2011

#1: EmigrationSample survey is only source

#2: ImmigrationDiscrepancies across sources

#3: Net MigrationFlows do not match stocks

#4: Immigration StatusNo systematic data

• Within the UK migrant population (“stock”)

– How many are on Tier 1 visas? Tier 2? Other?

– How many on student visas are employed?

– How do skills vary across different immigration statuses?

#5: Local area statistics:Imprecise estimates

#6: Public OpinionWho counts as a migrant?

• Government stats vs. members of public– Permanent/temporary– Students– Skills, resources– Legal/illegal

• Mismatched definitions mismatched policies?

#7: Impact on Public ServicesLack of data collection and analysis

• Lack of data collection on migrant status of users of services

• Scarcity of systematic research on migrants’ role in provision of public services

#8: Impact on HousingInsufficient research

• Impact on house prices, rents

• Indirect effects on social housing

#9: Student migration:Uncertain numbers, compliance, impacts

• Contribution to net migration– Visas vs. IPS– Exits• “potential” vs. actual non-compliance

• Impact on job market for British graduates

#10: Irregular/illegal MigrantsNumbers, characteristics

• Uncertainty– 524,000 – 947,000 estimated at end of 2007

(based on methods in 2005 Home Office report)

• Questions of definitions (e.g. semi-compliance)

www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.ukmigrationobservatory@compas.ox.ac.uk