KIKKOMAN - Waseda University · 2 About KIKKOMAN Kikkoman Corporation is the Soy Sauce Maker which is established in 1917. Domestic 56% Overseas 44% Kikkoman’s Sales

KIKKOMAN

2

About KIKKOMAN

Kikkoman Corporation is

the Soy Sauce Maker

which is established in 1917.

Domestic 56%

Overseas 44%

Kikkoman’s Sales

Stock Rating

Current Stock Price(7/21)：￥860

Target Stock Price：￥799

→7.6％ Downside

with Discounted Cash Flow method

“SELL”

RECOMENDATION

Summery of the Reason

SELL Target Price:799yen

Current Price:860yen

Shrinking Soy Sauce Market

in Domestic , in Overseas

Strategies Don’t Work as expected

Business Description

Overseas Domestic

Soy Sauce

Soy Sauce

Derivative Products

Others

Soy Sauce

Foods

Wholesale

Soy Sauce

Soy Sauce

Derivative Products

Soy Sauce

Core of the Profit since their inception

Has a top share for a long time in Japan

high

technological

capability

strong

brand-name

BUT

Shrinking of Soy Sauce Market →the profit of this division

has been decreasing since 2008

Domestic Soy Sauce Division

(%)

-0.20%

-0.15%

-0.10%

-0.05%

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Growth Rate of Population in Japan

Source: Statistical Handbook of Japan

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Per-capita Amount of

Soy Sauce Consumption in Japan (L)

Population decreases

&

The demand of soy sauce decreases

→Sales also decreases

Source: Soy Sauce Information Center

Forecast Sales of Soy Sauce (million)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

forecast

People want to cook quickly efficiently

with Soy sauce derivative products

Soy Sauce Derivative Products Division

Trying not to spend many hours on cooking

Want to increase own time by saving time to cook

Save the effort of cooking by using instant food and frozen food

Trying to cook a dish with an easy cleanup

Use one-person retort food and daily dish for one person

Source: R&D corporation data base

Market Share

Yamaki 51%

Mizkan 11%

Yamasa 7%

Ninben 5%

Kikkoman 4%

Momoya 2%

Yamamori 2%

Others 18%

Ebara 51%

Kikkoman 11% Nihon

Shokken

7%

Moranbon 5%

Jojoen 4%

Daisyo 2%

Gyukaku 2%

Others 18%

Market Shere of Tsuyu in 2008 Market Shere of Tare in 2008

Source : Food Trend Book

Forecast Soy Sauce Derivative Products

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

forecast

(million)

7 production bases

Ｖ

Ｖ

Overseas

Wisconsin

California

Hebei

Taiwan

Chiangsu

Singapore

Holland

単位：百万円）

Overseas Soy Sauce Sales Volume

North

America

83%

Europe

10%

Asia 7%

Source : Kikkoman Data

1.The soy sauce diffusion rate to the home exceeded 50%.

2.The increase of the volume of sales growth rate for 10

years is 2.6% and it isn’t rapid any more.



North

America

83%

Europe

10%

Asia 7%


The percentage of that Europe occupies in the sales of

Kikkoman is small.

→ The good impact will be also small.



North

America

83%

Europe

10%

Asia 7%


There are too many competitors.

→ It is hard to get market share for Kikkoman.

17

Sales Forecast (Overseas Soy Sauce Division)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Asia

Europe

North America

forecast (million)

Stock Rating

18

Current Stock Price(7/21)：￥860

Target Stock Price：￥799

→7.6％ Downside

with Discounted Cash Flow method

“SELL”

RECOMENDATION

Summary

Shrinking Domestic

soy sauce market

Enter into

Tsuyu and Tare

market In Domestic

Expand into

Global market

with Soy Sauce

THANK YOU

China 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Average

Wealthy persons

320000 345000 415035 364000 477400 534500 ―

A rate of Increase

7.81% 20.30% -12.30% 31.15% 11.96% ― 11.79%

Net sales in Asia and

Oceania

2018.03 2273.67 2523.78 2730 2584.47 2543.66 2461.27

The growth rate of net

sales in Asia

11.00% 8.17% -5.33% -1.58% -3.24% 1.80%

We think

Net Sales in China Don’t Increase

as Expected

Net Sales in China Don’t Increase

as Expected

It is said generally that Chinese people are conservative about food.

Even if wealthy people increase, per-capita amount of soy sauce

consumption don’t increase rapidly.

There are many rivals in China.

Kikkoman’s soy sauce is quite different from Chinese soy sauce.

They can’t get market share easily.

Chinese market will not large

as people expected

25

We Think Europe Market

Will Increase

In Europe, there are many wealthy people as compared

with in Asia.

The boom in Japanese food spread in Europe.

26

Europe

Production Base Nether lands (Sappemeer)

Sales teritory U.S（London）、Germany

Main market of Europe US , Netherlands , Germany , Switzerland , Norway, Poland, Sweden

There are not production bases and Sales territories in main market ,

Switzerland, Norway, Poland and Sweden, in 2011

however, average 9.78% in latest 5 years, so we expect the market of

Europe will grow if build more production and sale basis

We think Europe Market

will increase

Overseas Sales of Soy Source

• North US Sales of Soy Source （Fact）

• ＝Overseas Sales of Soy Source (Fact)× The Rate of North US Sales to Overseas

Sales of Soy

• Source (Fact)

• North US Soy Source Market Size（Fact）

• ＝North US Sales of Soy Source（Fact）÷KIKKOMAN’s North US Soy Source Market

Share（Fact）

• North US Soy Source Market Size （ Anticipation ）

• ＝ North US Soy Source Market Size of the previous year(Fact)×Market Growth

Rate(Anticipation）

• North US Sales of Soy Source（ Anticipation ）

• ＝ North US Soy Source Market Size （ Anticipation ）× KIKKOMAN’s North US Soy

Source Market Share（ Anticipation ）

• Overseas Sales of Soy Source（ Anticipation ）

• ＝ North US Sales of Soy Source （ Anticipation ）÷The Rate of North US Sales to

Overseas Sales of Soy Source（ Anticipation ）

28 2012/6/8 フッター

※ The Rate of North US Sales to Overseas Sales of Soy Source

（ Anticipation ）

・・・ The average for the latest 5 years

※ KIKKOMAN’s North US Soy Source Market Share （ Anticipation ）


※ North US Soy Source Market Growth Rate （ Anticipation ）


29 2012/6/8 フッター


◆海外醤油売上

• キ・北米の売上高（実）＝キ・海外醤油売上高（実）×キ・海外醤油事業に占める北米での売上割合（実）

• 北米の市場規模（実）＝キ・北米の売上高（実）÷北米市場でのキ・シェア（実）

• 北米の市場規模（予）＝前年の市場規模（実）×市場成長率（予）

• キ・北米の売上高（予）＝北米の市場規模（予）×北米でのキ・シェア（予）

• キ・海外醤油売上高（予）＝キ・北米の売上高（予）÷キ・海外醤油事業に占める北米での売上割合（予）

※海外醤油に占める北米での売上割合（予）・・・直近５年の平均

※北米でのシェア（予）・・・直近５年の平均

※北米の市場成長率（予）・・・直近５年の平均（成熟市場、頭打ちなため）

30 2012/6/8 フッター


• Europe Sales of Soy Source（Fact）

• ＝ Overseas Sales of Soy Source （Fact）× The Rate of Europe Sales to

Overseas Sales of Soy

• Source （Fact）

• Europe Sales of Soy Source （ Anticipation ）

＝ Europe Sales of Soy Source of the previous year(Fact)× Europe Soy

Source Market Growth Rate(Anticipation)

• Asia Oceania Sales of Soy Source （Fact）

• ＝ Overseas Sales of Soy Source(Fact)×The Rate of Asia Oceania Sales to

Overseas Sales of

• Soy Source(Fact)

• Asia Oceania Sales of Soy Source （ Anticipation ）

• ＝ Asia Oceania Sales of Soy Source of the previous year(Fact)× Asia

Oceania Soy Source Market Growth Rate(Anticipation)

31 2012/6/8 フッター


※ Europe Soy Source Market Growth Rate （ Anticipation ）


※ Asia Oceania Soy Source Market Growth Rate （ Anticipation ）


32 2012/6/8 フッター


• 欧州の売上高（実）＝海外の醤油売上高（実）×欧州での売上割合（実）

• 欧州の売上高（予）＝前年の欧州売上高（実）×欧州での売上高成長率（予）

• ｱｼﾞｱ･ｵｾｱﾆｱの売上高（実）＝海外の醤油売上高（実）×ｱｼﾞｱ･ｵｾｱﾆｱでの売上割合（実）

• ｱｼﾞｱ･ｵｾｱﾆｱの売上高（予）＝前年のｱｼﾞｱ･ｵｾｱﾆｱ売上高（実）×ｱｼﾞｱ･ｵｾｱﾆｱでの売上高成長率（予）

※欧州での売上高成長率（予）・・・直近５年の平均

（現在の生産拠点：オランダのみ、販売拠点：ロンドン、ドイツのみ→でも直近5年で平均9.8%成長

北欧（主要市場）に拠点がない・イタリア・フランス・スペインなどまだまだ開拓の余地あり、

現地r料理に合ったレシピも考案中、欧州は割と高所得層→キッコーマン商品でも高級品にならない？

⇒今度も２ケタ成長に近い成長が見込まれると判断）

※ｱｼﾞｱ･ｵｾｱﾆｱでの売上高成長率（予）・・・直近５年の平均

（中国の直近５年の平均富裕層増加率：11.8%→2002年から中国進出しているにもかかわらず直近5

年の売上高成長率が1.8%のため、富裕層の増加に関わらず今後も大きな伸びはないと判断）

33 2012/6/8 フッター


34 2012/6/8 フッター

Domestic sales of Soy Sauce

Prediction of the shipping quantity of soy sauce

= The rate of change of a per capita annual soy sauce amount of

consumption Soy sauce in Japan(5 years average)

× A population growth rate of Japan (5 years average)

× Soy sauce shipping quantity of the previous year

Prediction of market size (amount of money) = the shipping quantity (liter) x soy

sauce unit price (2010) of soy sauce

1 liter of soy sauce unit price = the soy sauce shipment of soy sauce sales /

KIKKOMAN of KIKKOMAN

Prediction of the domestic soy sauce sales of KIKKOMAN = a share (2010) of

market size prediction x KIKKOMAN

The soy sauce shipment of KIKKOMAN = The market share (2010) x soy sauce

shipment of KIKKOMAN

35 2012/6/8 フッター

Domestic sales of Soy Sauce

しょうゆの出荷数量（リットル）の予測＝日本人の一人当たり年間消費量の変化率の過去5年平均×日本の人口成長率の過去5年平均×前年のしょうゆ出荷数量

市場規模（金額）の予測＝しょうゆの出荷数量（リットル）×しょうゆ単価（2010）

しょうゆ１リットル単価＝キッコーマンのしょうゆ売上÷キッコーマンのしょうゆ出荷量

キッコーマンのしょうゆ出荷量＝キッコーマンの市場シェア（2010）×しょうゆ出荷量

キッコーマンの国内しょうゆ売上の予測＝市場規模予測×キッコーマンのシェア（2010）

Domestic Soy Sauce Derivative Products

• Prediction of the Tsuyu and Tare market size

= The rate of change of growth of Tsuyu and Tare market (5 years average)

×Sales of the previous year

・ Prediction of the Tsuyu and Tare sales of KIKKOMAN

＝Prediction of the Tsuyu and Tare market size

×market share of kikkoman (2010)

・ Sales Prediction of the kikkoman soy sauce derivative division

= Prediction of the Tsuyu and Tare sales of KIKKOMAN/ The rate of Tsuyu and Tare in

Kikkoman’s Soy Sauce Derivative Products division(2010)

36 2012/6/8 フッター

国内しょうゆ関連予想

37 2012/6/8 フッター

つゆ・たれ市場規模の予測＝つゆ・たれ市場成長率の過去5年平均×前年のつゆ・たれ売上高

キッコーマンのつゆ・たれ売上予測＝つゆ・たれ市場規模の予測×キッコーマンのシェア2010

キッコーマンのしょうゆ関連事業の売上予想＝

キッコーマンのつゆ・たれ売上予想／キッコーマンのしょうゆ関連事業におけるつゆたれの割合（2010）

Documents

KIKKOMAN - Waseda University · 2 About KIKKOMAN Kikkoman Corporation is the Soy Sauce Maker which is established in 1917. Domestic 56% Overseas 44% Kikkoman’s Sales