King Stats Analysis

8/14/2019 King Stats Analysis

1/10

JULY 1-19

Firstly, for 6max, you play pretty nitty. I think you could be playing a lot more hands profitably, but youre

winning at a good rate over a pretty good sample so its something you should work on very gradually adding a couple of hands to your ranges in various places over the course of a few thousand hands. For

example, if your opening range UTG is ATs+, AQo+, KJs+, KQo, T9s+ and 55+, you could maybe expand thatto include 22-44, AJo and 89s. It might not seem much, but thats an extra 2.6%.

I think your AF is a lot too low considering how tight you are. Because you usually have the betting lead anda strong hand, you should be playing more aggro postflop. You should be c/betting a lot, and firing the turn a

lot. It seems like you may be playing pot control a little too often where you have the best hand, and givingup the lead.

Your low steal% is a direct consequence of being so tight. Its not a problem, but you could afford to movethat up to 30% without much trouble. Again, gradual change is the key. Just add one or two hands to yourrange. I think that something like this range is pretty good from the CO:

Thats a 30% opening range which I actually consider pretty tight. I think you can very safely open anybroadway hand, any pair and any suited ace. Then you can add hands like suited connectors and suited gapconnectors. Unless your opponents are very loose (and aggressive), I think opening hands like Q5s and T8ois profitable tbh.

Just to illustrate a very important point, if the SB and BB are folding 85% to steals (youre at 86% for bothpositions), then ~72% of the time youll take the blinds uncontested. So, if youre opening to 3.5bb:

72% x 1.5 = +1.08bb/hand.28% x -3.5 = -0.98bb/hand.

Even if you fold every single time they call or raise, you still make 0.1bb/hand. You can open 100% of handsprofitably from the button. You can open without any cards at all and make a profit. Raising in position isincredibly powerful, and youre only doing it with 25% of your hands. If they both defend with 20% of theirhands from the SB and BB, its STILL breakeven with a 100% range assuming you lose every hand whencalled/raised. Ok, they will adapt to you and will probably defend more eventually. In that case, they areplaying weaker and weaker hands OOP. That is why 25% is too low. You simply arent taking advantage ofenough profitable opportunities.


2/10

For that matter, I think you should be defending your BB a little more (SB is ok but Id like to see it a touchlower). 86% is just giving up too much. I think you should be 3-betting some hands against LAG buttonopeners, and just value raising a little lighter in general. I think about 80-82% would be better. Again, itsonly a very slight change thats needed. Its an occasional squeeze play here and there. 3-betting a COopener with 44 once in a while. Just move it up a notch. Your winrate in the BB is fairly poor really. Youarent playing horribly, but by folding to steals that often youre losing at a huge rate (youre at -24BB/10).Youre giving away 1bb so often that you cant come close to making it back from your good hands. You areexpected to lose money in the blinds, but thats just too much.

Your positional stats overall look pretty solid. You have a good sense of position, although again, I think youcan be a lot looser especially on the button. Other than that, I think youre fine. Youre at 20/17 on thebutton, and FWIW Im at 21/21 UTG at 6max (and 13BB/100 over the last 2500 hands in that position), if thatgives an indication of how many hands you can play profitably.

Won $ when saw flop should, I think, be higher. Given that youre tight, when you see flops you should bewinning the pot fairly often. Id like to see this up at around 42-45%. A lot of this problem is seen in your


3/10

Im at 6.3BB/100, hes at 1.2BB/100 (although he evidently had a weird change in style in the middle where

he had a downswing). I play a pretty aggro style, and he plays a very passive style, although we are bothpretty loose compared to you (30-35VPIP). Youre at -2BB/100, but I dont have any


4/10

We both have a pretty healthy winrate in showdown pots (need to look at equity adjusted in my case because

Ive been running horrible).

This shows though, that you are playing well in big pots. Youre getting value from your biggest hands, and

youre not spewing with bad calldowns. The problem is actually best explained with an example:

If you fold on the flop every time you dont have 2 pair+, your 10BBpot winrate skyrocket. Because you lose in


5/10

calling a turn bet with 2nd pair correctly. If you can start winning some more pots where you know youropponent is weak, your winrate could double.

Your non SD losses are a slight problem, but it all stems from the blue, because then youre playing well, and other people were saying it doesnt

matter as long as youre winning. In fact, all that matters is that you arent losing unnecessary amounts.Overall, pocktdeuces made like 28k from 200nl in July, and he loses in non SD pots (albeit at a slow rate).

The important thing is that he doesnt lose money in small pots though. He takes more of his weaker handsto showdown, and he traps and induces more bluffs than most. The problem comes with people calling flops

and folding to turn bets, and c/betting flops and giving up when called. The reason we look to non-SD pots isbecause thats where these c/c c/f lines (and various other losses due to bad play) show up, and usually

losing a lot in non SD pots is a symptom of taking those lines too often.

Overall, these stats look pretty reasonable, but you need to focus on losing less from the blinds by defendinga little more, stealing the blinds more, and just picking up on some orphan pots postflop with weak holdings.


6/10

JULY 19-29

Ok, so from the 19th you opened up, and I think first of all its worth noting that your -7BB/100 figure isntaccurate in EV terms. At a first glance it might look like you loosened up and just spewed massively (goingfrom +4BB/100 to -7BB/100). In fact:

You ran pretty damn bad - your adjusted winrate over that sample was only -2.2BB/100, and you ran $320below expectation. At 25nl thats a pretty sickening 13 buyins. However, you cant ignore the fact that even

taking that out of the equation, you lost money where you previously made money. Its a case of analysewhat changed, why it changed, and what it affected.

Your VPIP went up 4 points, but PFR only moved up 2.5 points. Overall, 19.4/14.7 is pretty passive, and I

think you should shoot for 19/17 if youre looking to be more aggressive. Keep a pretty narrow gap betweenVPIP and PFR. Your steals increased 7.5% which is good, but your overall aggression dropped noticably, and

it was already low to begin with. This is likely to be one of the main reasons (other than running bad) for yourlosses. Youve opened up preflop, but become more passive overall. From this, it seems like you may have


7/10

trouble with weak one pair hands. Possibly opening suited connectors and flopping middle pair, hands likethat. The new situations that youre facing with being looser, youre evidently approaching them passively.

Its also possible that youve started calling raises with hands like suited connectors and either playing fit orfold, or calling the flop and folding the turn, which is a hugely EV play overall (not in every case, but inmany).

Looking at your stats from the BB, you started defending a little more, but in the wrong way IMO. Your 9/4changed to 13/3, which is a significant deterioration. Even though you didnt lose at a greater rate, I think its

something you need to change (you are still losing at a pretty big rate). You stopped raising as much, andyou started calling more OOP. Id like to see those figures change to about 12/6. If youre playing more

hands, they should be 3betting hands.

Your WWSF stayed pretty much static, but overall its not huge problem on its own. As long as it is around40% or higher its ok. The tighter you are the easier it is to get this up high (because youre seeing the flop

with a very strong range compared to say a 25/20 player). I would like potentially to see it up at somewherearound 45%, but that does involve very aggressive postflop play, and the line between spew and profit with a

WWSF that high becomes thinner and thinner when playing increasingly loose preflop. WWSF is a symptomof playing style, not a cause of playing style.

Your won at showdown% dropped from 52 to 48, but part of that can be attributed to running bad. You needto watch it though, to see if that is the only reason. If its due to your play, theres a problem and it means

youve started to call down with hands that are too weak. If youve been looking to open up your game, its

very possible that youve been running into unfamiliar situations and deciding to just call down with the worsthand (which causes lower AF as well). On a related note, your WtSD is higher as well. Overall, youre going

to showdown more often, and winning less often. Running bad can cause some of this, but I think part of it isyour play.

Ok, position stats:

You added hands in the right areas, which is good. Your UTG VPIP moved up 2.71 and your button VPIPmoved up 6.17, so you added hands to your ranges in good proportion. The problem is, look at the won atshowdown. On the button it dropped from 52.45% to 43%. Thats a huge problem, even taking into account

running bad. Your WWSF is lower too. What this really means is you added hands to your ranges, but youdidnt win with them. You invested money and then lost it. Again, running 13 BI below expectation will skew

these stats in various ways, but it seems that you just didnt play the new hands well.

This is backed up considerably by your


8/10

It looks like you started to do better from 6.5k onwards, but if we look at your >10BB graph:

Your change has sacrificed all showdown winnings and yet hasnt improved non SD winnings. With this graphyou can actually just imagine that the green line is horizontal really. It does look like you might be gettingonto the right track, seeing that you started to break even over the last 7k hands or so of the month. The

problem is, you were winning at 4BB/100 before, and youve lost all showdown winnings in the process, whichis a pretty damn poor trade.

If we look at your overall small pot graph:


9/10

The 4k hand breakeven stretch at the end is not statistically significant because youve had other stretcheslike it and not maintained it.

If you look at this, at about 32k, your showdown winnings were at >1100, and sklansky bucks were at


10/10

Because you make a lot of money in >10BB pots (or rather you did before you loosened up), the problem isalmost certainly contained in those

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King Stats Analysis