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Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006. Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making. Byeongwon Park* & Seok-ho Son. Technology Foresight Center - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Korean Technology Foresight for Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingS & T Policy Making
Byeongwon Park* & Seok-ho Son
Technology Foresight CenterTechnology Foresight CenterKorea Institute of S&T Evaluation and PlanningKorea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning
Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology
Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making
28th- 29th September 2006
Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology
Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making
28th- 29th September 2006
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Korea’s S&T has achieved Korea’s S&T has achieved remarkable growth during the remarkable growth during the
last half century.last half century.
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Past and Present of Korea’s S&TPast and Present of Korea’s S&T
World 8World 8thth Power in S&T by 2025 Power in S&T by 2025World 8World 8thth Power in S&T by 2025 Power in S&T by 2025
SCI Paper19,279(2004)
55% (since 2000) US
Patents4,428
34% (since 2000)
R&D Budget
28,774(milliom US$ PPP)56% (since 2000)
New S&T Administration
Since 2004
# of Researcher156,220 FTE
44% (since 2000)
Corporate Research Institutes
10,270(2004)44% (since 2000)
Technological Competitiveness2nd (IMD, 2005)7th(WEF, 2005)
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Government R&D in Korea
MOST : 19% for Scientific R&D
MOCIE : 19% for Industrial Technology Development
MIC : 9% for Information & Communication Technology
MOST(OSTI) : 11% for Managing Research Organizations
Rest of Ministries(Defense, Agriculture,Transportation,etc.)
Governmental R&D : $ 7.7B (‘05)
MOCIE : Ministry of Commerce, Industry & EnergyMOST : Ministry of Science & TechnologyMIC : Ministry of Information & CommunicationOSTI: Office of Science & Technology Innovation
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Government R&D Related Organizational StructureOrganizational Structure
PresidentPresidentN S T C *N S T C *
Main Bodies of R&D(Research Institutions under Research Council,
Private Companies, Universities, etc)
Main Bodies of R&D(Research Institutions under Research Council,
Private Companies, Universities, etc)
*NSTC : National Science & Technology Council
MOSTMOST
ITEP AgenciesKISTEP
IITA
OSTIOSTI
KOSEF
MOCIEMOCIE OthersOthersMICMIC
Vice Prime Ministry
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Chronology of major Government R&D Programs in Korea
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 2001HAN Project (G7) Dual Use Tech. Program
MOSTNRL Program21C Frontier Program
Nuclear Energy Development Program
MOST National R&D Programs
Basic Science Program
Industrial Technology Program (Program for SME’s Key Tech. Program)Alternative Energy & Energy Conservation Program
MOCIE
Information & Telecommunication Technology ProgramMICDual Use Tech. ProgramMOD
Health & Medical Technology ProgramMOHW Environmental Technology Program
Key EnvironmentTech. Program
MOEnv
Agricultural Technology ProgramMOAFSMBA Small Business Innovation Research
Academia Support ProgramMOEBK21 Program
Creative Research InitiativesSpace Tech. Development Program
2002 2004
Next-generation
growth engine program
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
BUTBUT, , Korea faces the new and daunting Korea faces the new and daunting challenges in coming years. challenges in coming years.
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Korean Economy in the midst of UncertaintyKorean Economy in the midst of Uncertainty
Increasing risk due to new TechIncreasing risk due to new Tech
-Advances in NT, BT, ET-Fast-follower World leader
Increasing risk due to new TechIncreasing risk due to new Tech
-Advances in NT, BT, ET-Fast-follower World leader
High oil price High oil price
- 97% import of energy-Energy-intensive industry
-(ex.steel Ind.)
High oil price High oil price
- 97% import of energy-Energy-intensive industry
-(ex.steel Ind.)
Fast Ageing societyFast Ageing society
-fertility rate : 4.53(‘70)1.08 (‘06)-Net decrease in population after 2020
Fast Ageing societyFast Ageing society
-fertility rate : 4.53(‘70)1.08 (‘06)-Net decrease in population after 2020
Socioeconomic PolarizationSocioeconomic Polarization
-Collapse of middle class-Big Corp. vs. SMEs-Seoul vs. Regional
Socioeconomic PolarizationSocioeconomic Polarization
-Collapse of middle class-Big Corp. vs. SMEs-Seoul vs. Regional
FTA & economic BlockFTA & economic Block
-38.3% GDP dependence on Export-Rising China
--Nutcraker Situation
FTA & economic BlockFTA & economic Block
-38.3% GDP dependence on Export-Rising China
--Nutcraker Situation
North KoreaNorth KoreaNorth KoreaNorth Korea
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
challenges in S&T areachallenges in S&T area
0
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YEAR
DevelopmentAppliedBasic
`
Weak Basic Research
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YEAR
US$
(mill
ion)
Export
Import
Tech. Trade Deficit
Increasing Technology Trade Deficits
a serious sociocultural phenomena of avoiding sci. & eng. among the young
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
YEAR
%
VocationalLiberal ArtScience
"Uncertainty cannot be pinned down or coaxed
into cages. It is only partly tamable, and we must
learn to live with the beast.“
-Paul J.H. Schoemaker
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
How can Korea find a way to the future of S&T?
Foresight ActivitiesForesight Activities
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
YEAR DELPHI MIXED PANEL/SCENARIO
1970-
1989 Netherlands
1990 1st Germany5th Japan OECD(→Present)
1991 1st US-Core Tech.
1992 New Zealand, UN(→present)
1993 1st Korean TF(→1994) 2nd US-Critical Tech., Germany-
21C Tech.
1994 FranceJapan/Germany 1st UK Netherlands
1995 6th Japan France-100 core Tech.3rd US-critical Tech.
1996 JapanGermany
AU-ASTEC, Finalnd(1996-98)Netherlands (Future Committee)
Italy industrial forecastingACUNU Millennium ProjectNigeria, India, Philippines
1997 Spain-OPTI Ireland
1998Austria
GermanyUS George Washington
Univ.
South Africa, New ZealandSweden, 4th US- critical Tech.
Norway, APECEU-IPTS Futures, Netherlands
19992nd Korean TF(→1999)
SpainAPEC
Hungary-TEP2nd UK, Germany-FUTUR(→present)
Ireland, Italy
2000 Venezuela2nd France-100 Core Tech.
Italy 2nd Industrial forecastingChina, Portugal, Brazil
2001 7th Japan Czech, Mlata, Cyprus, Estonia
2002 Turkey Bulgaria, Rumania, 3rd UK(→present)
2003-2004 8th Japan(→2004)China 3rd Korean TF(→2004)
EU(FP 6 →(till 2006)UK (every year)
Germany( every year), UN, OECD
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Foresight is booming everywhere in the world
• Increasing interest in thinking about the future of S&Tin order to strengthen the ability to anticipate future S&T related issuesIn order to formulate new strategy for S&T policy
• Nowadays technology foresight(TF) is practiced in many countries and private firms.Because TF can make a unique strategic contribution to the policy maker and firm
manager as well as social stakeholders.Especially in the science and technology related area.
• The need for priorities in science and technology No one country can afford vast amount of R&D spending
• This Seville Seminar is a premier example that shows the current emerging issues in Foresight activities.
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Currently On-going TF activity in KoreaCurrently On-going TF activity in KoreaType Sponsorin
g MinistryFacilitating organization Thematic Area or Project Title Time
HorizonMethodolo
gy
TF(2006)
Ministry of Information and Communication
IITA(Institute for Information Technology Advancement)
Foresight for Information Technology
-2030 Delphi
NCA(National Computerization Agency)
Ubiquitous Korea +15 yrs Panel
TF(2006)
Ministry of Health and Welfare
KHIDI(Korea Health Industry Development Institute)
Future Trends in Health care and Life Science
+15 yrs Delphi
TF(2006)
Ministry of Environment
KIEST(Korea Institute of
Environmental Science and Technology)
Future Trends in Environmental Technology
+15 yrs Environmental ScanningDelphi
TF(2006)
Ministry of Science and Technology
KISTEP(Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning)
Thematic Foresight-Nanomaterial-Stem cell-Ubiquitous Computing
+15 yrs PanelScenario
F The PresidentialOffice
Presidential Committee on Education Innovation
Future of Education in Korea-What we do right now?
+15 yrs Panel
TRM(2001-present)
Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy
KOTEF(Korea Industrial Technology Foundation)
Technology Roadmap for- Material and Component- Industries (Robot, Battery, Semiconductor, Automobile etc.)
+10 yrs TRM Panel
ST(2006)
Ministry of Planning and Budget
Co-Work with KDI(Korea Development Institute)
Vision 2030- Layout for government Budget Spending up to 2030
-2030 Panel
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Overview of the 3Overview of the 3rdrd Korean Technology Foresight carried out by MOST Korean Technology Foresight carried out by MOST
• S&T basic Law : Article 13 (enacted in 2001)• Every 5 years (carried out by KISTEP)• Provide the vision and direction of emerging S&T area – identify
new technology that may have high potential for growth of national wealth and betterment of quality of human life
• Has to implement in S&T basic plan (every 5 year, 2nd Plan for 2008-2012))
1st TF (1993-1994) and 2nd TF(1997-1998) were Lab-Directed Research Projects carried out by STEPI * and KISTEP
*STEPI (Science and Technology Policy Institute)
3rd TF was carried out in 2003-2004 by KISTEP and it is the first TF after enactment of S&T basic Law.
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
3rd Korean TF : Characteristics3rd Korean TF : Characteristics• Consideration of socio-economic needs and issues in future
Korea and enlargement of participation of the stakeholders• Application of Delphi methods for emerging technology that
may solve the future needs and issue• Scenario writing for future society
· Future prospect, needs/issues and technology · Internal consistency · Increase awareness the role of S&T in the knowledge-based society
• Offering of policy alternatives to promote knowledge-based innovative society
Time Horizon : up to year 2030Project : Duration : 2003.7 - 2004.12TYPE OF EXERCISE ADDRESSED: National – covering all S&T fields and the entire territory of Korea
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
3rd Korean TF : Procedures3rd Korean TF : Procedures
Future perspectives Needs and Issues of
society(4 actors-15 categories-43 subcategories
(Dec. 2003)
Future Technology Subjects and Delphi
SurveyAnalysis
(Aug. 2004)
Future Social Systems Scenario Building
(Dec. 2004)
1st phase 2nd Phase
3rd Phase
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Korean TF : Sector Expert PanelsKorean TF : Sector Expert Panels
10 sectors (based on key words)• Space & earth
• Material & manufacturing
• Information and knowledge
• Food & bio-resource
• Life & health
• Energy & environment
• Safety & Securuty
• Social Infrastructure
• Management & innovation
• S&T and society/culture
Delphi Survey
Scenario
Provide List of Future
Technologies
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Korean TF : ResultsKorean TF : Results
• Technology Foresight with socio-economic consideration (3rd Generation Foresight)
- Future perspectives, assessment of future needs & issues - Scenario writing on future social systems (education, labor, healthcare, safety)
• Identify 761 future technology subjects- 61% of them will realize between 2011-2015 - Korea is still lagging all future technology area
- Korea has the strong competitiveness in IT area - Space and earth is most lagging area(7-10 years)
• Strong emphasis on dissemination to the general publicBook, Comics, Movie in addition to formal report
• Government took follow-up action quickly Future Strategic Technology
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Future Strategic Technology InitiativeFuture Strategic Technology Initiative
• Government launches new project to identify emerging generic technologies at the national level based on 3rd Korean foresight results
• Critical attributes of national strategic technologyEmergingDisruptiveConvergingStrategic area where government should be involved
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Priority Setting ProcedurePriority Setting Procedure
FutureStrategic
Tech.
3rd TechnologyForesight
Survey from Industrial &R&D Inst.
Overseas DB
Future Tech.Candidate DB
(KISTEP)
Survey &2nd Screening
1st Screening(Expert Panel)
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Future Strategic Technology 21Future Strategic Technology 21
•Global observing system•Climate/weather forecasting•Marine territory management
•Digital convergence•Smart computing•Nano and functional material
•Cognitive science and humanoid robot •Culture contents •Regenerative
medicine
• Bio-safety & defense• Drug discovery & personalized medicine
• Bio-diversity and natural resources conservation
Public NeedQuality of Life
Economic Impact
• Ubiquitous civil infrastructure• Hazard ㆍ disaster forecast• Next generation nuclear energy and safety
• Clean and renewable energy
•Information security•Super efficient transportation•Bio-resource•Satellite•fusion
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Technology Roadmapping in KoreaTechnology Roadmapping in Korea
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Brief History of TRM in KoreaBrief History of TRM in Korea
• Public Sector– MOCIE
• Industrial Technology Roadmap 1st Phase(2000. 9~2001. 8), 2rd Phase(2001. 7~2002. 6), 3rd Phase(2003.
6~2004. 6), 4th Phase(2004. 10~2005. 9)Annually try the new indursty area(product) and update old ones.
– MOST• National Technology Roadmap(2002)
– MIC• u-IT839 (8 service, 3 infrastructure, 9 products)
• Private Sector– Samsung Electronics
• Customized TRM based on SRI-framework
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
NTRM : Approach
NTRM Head CouncilKISTEPProject Team
NSTC Office
Vision I Committee
Inter-Government Coordination
TaskForce
Vision IICommittee
Vision IIICommittee
Vision V Committee
TRM team A TRM team B TRM team C TRM team N………..
Vision IVCommittee
Incorporate existing TRMs into NTRM with necessary modifications Handle basic S&T separately from NTRM based on bottom-up approach
NTRM include Macro Roadmaps for strategic product/functions and detailed TRM for chosen key technologies
Analysis of Industrial Need 5 visions 13 Directions 49 Strategic Product/Functions 99 Key Technologies NTRM
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
NTRM by 5 Visions
11Building an information-
knowledge-intelligence society
22 Aiming at Bio-Healthtopia
33 Advancing the E2 Frontier
44Upgrading the Value
of Major Industries of Korea Today
55 Improving National Safety and Prestige
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Building an Information-Knowledge-Intelligence Society
Meeting a variety of human needs in all areas of life by making IT
service more intelligent, mobile, and user-friendly
Anytime, Anywhere,Any-device Communication
Innovation in Contents & Service
Ambient Intelligence
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Anytime, Anywhere,Any-device
Communication Mobile & Wearable IT Device
Ubiquitous Network
Intelligent Computing
Digital Convergence
Innovation inContents &
Service
Ambient Intelligence
Intelligent Medical System
Intelligent Transport System
Intelligent Building/Home
Intelligent Home Appliance
Intelligent Robot
Intelligent Man-Machine Interface
Knowledge/Information Security
Business Service
E-Commerce
Contents
Bio-Diagnosis Technology
Display Technology
Intelligent Home Appliance Technology
Home Network Technology
MEMS Technology
Art Intelligent Technology
Culture Original Form Restore Technology
Cyber Communication Technology
Game Engine Technology
Digital Contents Authoring Technology
Movie/Video/Digital Media Standardization
Information Security Technology
Digital Information Design Technology
Information Search DBMS Technology
E-Finance Technology
E-marketplace Technology
Tera-bit Optical Communication Elements Technology
Digital Signal Processing Technology
Wire&Wireless Integration System Device Technology
High Density Storage Technology
Intelligent Network Technology
New Semiconductor Device Technology
Mobile Multimedia Contents Technology
High-Speed Wireless Multimedia Technology
Optical Internet Technology
Information-Knowledge-Intelligence
Society
Next Generation Information System Technology
S/W Standard/Design/Reuse
Digital Broadcasting Technology
Vision
Direction of
Development
Strategic products and
FunctionsKey Technologies
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Portfolio Analysis of Strategic Products and Functions
Strategic ImportanceVery Low Low Middle High Very High
VeryLow
Low
Middle
High
VeryHigh
EconomicImpact
Intelligent Computing(765 billion $ in 2004)
E-Commerce(28.7 trillion $ in 2010)
Business Service(157 trillion won in 2010)
Knowledge/Information Security(30 billion $ from 2005)
Man-MachineInterface Intelligence
(Creating high-value-added,
Complex products
Intelligent Robot(17 billion $ in 2005
Intelligent Building/Home(15 trillion in 2010)
Intelligent Transport System(425 billion $ in 2015)
Intelligent Medical System(Creating new markets,reducing medical costs)
Digital Convergence(570 billion $ in 2004)
Ubiquitous Network(2.03 trillion $ in 2005))
Intelligent Home Appliance(360 billion $ in 2005)
Culture Contents(1.17 trillion $ in 2005)
Mobile & Wearable IT Device
(73.3 billion $ in 2005)
High
Middle
Potential for success
Low
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
High-speed Wireless Multimedia/ 4G Mobile CommunicationHigh-speed Wireless Multimedia/ 4G Mobile Communication
2002
wideband CDMA modemnarrowband CDMA
modem
2012
High-speed packet modem
Tech
nolo
gy
2007
Pro
du
ct
QAM,OFDM,Diversity,Turbo code
Power control, Smart antenna, Interference, SDR
IP-based RANFixed ATM/IP
Network interworking(GW)
Cdma20001x EV systemCdma20001x EV-DO/ EV-DV
W-CDMA system/ HSDPA
Wireless IP core tech.(QoS, Handoff,Resource management)
Homogeneous network Integration
ALL-IP core network
DO/GPRS DO/DV/GPRS enhancements
Adhoc, Bluetooth PAN
HMI/Hot Spot system2G cellular system
4G mobile comm.
High-speed adaptive RAN
Active core network
IP-based RAN with smart antenna
high-speed hot spot > 100 Mbps
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HighMedium
Low
Competitiveness of domestic technology
■ □▣
high low Importance
● basic research ⊙ international collaboration◎ applied research ○ Outsourcing
R&D strategy
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Corporate Foresight: One Electronic Company Corporate Foresight: One Electronic Company
• AGTO : based in IBM GTO Identify Emerging Technology Trends Significant to Industry
– Disruptive to Existing Business Potential to Create New Ones– Exponential and Threshold– How New Technology can Impact Customers/Businesses– Understand Customer Challenges
Has a Direct Influence on Technical Strategy of Company
• Future Technology Center –Research Organization Sectoral Technology Forecasting
• Siemens : Picture of Future Combination of Retropolation and Extrapolation
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Good signal for FTAGood signal for FTA
• Each Ministry establishes a separate “Future Strategic Unit”• More private companies have involved in foresight activity• More article about Future Technologies on newspaper• A lot of debates underway on ‘vision 2030’ by the
government• Movement to form “National Strategic unit”• Start to open Foresight class in the graduate school…
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
ChallengesChallenges
• Due to legislation, it seems to be quite favorable situation to run TF in nation-wide in Korea
• But there are several things to be addressed.
• Capability to run TF (Facilitating)– Not many– Not enough experiences
• Methodological Competence– Till now, DELPHI is major method but continued to use? Better
way to do?– What is the best combination of methods
• Impact on Policy making– Some, but not Clear yet
Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy MakingKorean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making
Dr. Byeongwon Park [email protected]
☎ 82 2 589 2931
Thank you