KS-RA-07-001-EN

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

M e t h o d o l o g i e s a n dw o r k i n g p a p e r s

ISSN 1977-0375

National reports on the demographicdevelopments in 2005

2007 edition

Demographic Outlook

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Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2007

ISBN 92-79-04622-3ISSN 1977-0375Catalogue number: KS-RA-07-001-EN-N

Theme: Population and social conditionsCollection: Methodologies and working papers

European Communities, 2007

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Demographic Outlook

National reports on the demographic developments in 2005

Demographic outlook National reports on the demographic developments in 2005

Table Of cONTeNTs

ForEword ....................................................................................................................................... 5

CzECh rEpubliC ............................................................................................................................ 6

dEnmark ......................................................................................................................................... 9

GErmany ....................................................................................................................................... 11

Estonia ........................................................................................................................................... 13

spain ................................................................................................................................................ 16

irEland .......................................................................................................................................... 20

italy ................................................................................................................................................ 22

Cyprus ............................................................................................................................................ 25

latvia ............................................................................................................................................. 28

lithuania ...................................................................................................................................... 32

luxEmbourG ............................................................................................................................... 35

hunGary ........................................................................................................................................ 38

malta .............................................................................................................................................. 2

nEthErlands ..............................................................................................................................

austria .......................................................................................................................................... 7

portuGal ....................................................................................................................................... 52

slovEnia ........................................................................................................................................ 56

slovakia ........................................................................................................................................ 60

Finland .......................................................................................................................................... 6

swEdEn ........................................................................................................................................... 66

unitEd kinGdom ........................................................................................................................ 69

bulGaria ....................................................................................................................................... 72

romania ......................................................................................................................................... 75

Croatia .......................................................................................................................................... 78

thE FormEr yuGoslav rEpubliC oF maCEdonia ........................................................ 80

turkEy ........................................................................................................................................... 83

liEChtEnstEin ............................................................................................................................. 86

norway ........................................................................................................................................... 88

switzErland ............................................................................................................................... 91

Demographic outlook National reports on the demographic developments in 2005 5

fOrewOrD

Giampaolo Lanzieri

Every year Eurostat, in co-operation with the Council of Europe and the united nations statistics division (unsd), carries out a data collection on demographic issues over 37 countries. on that occasion, the national statistical authorities also provide a brief report on the main issues characterising the demographic development in their countries. such reports provide useful insights and help on the interpretation of the national demographic data.

These reports are hereinafter presented in this first edition of a new series of annual Eurostat publications on demographic developments in Europe. the geographical coverage is limited to those countries that have provided a report on demographic developments in 2005 and includes Eu member states, acceding and candidate countries as well as EFTA countries. Interested readers can find additional information in the series of statistics in Focus devoted to demography, in particular the population in Europe 2005: first results.

i would thank all the authors of the national reports, without whom this publication would not have been possible. special thanks to rosemarie andersson, who has taken care of the linguistic and lay-out revision, and to all colleagues that have contributed to this publication.


czech republic

Krystof Zeman

Population

the number of population as at 31 december 2005 was 10 251 079, by 30 502 more than by the end of 200. the population has been increasing since 2002, due to the positive net migration outnumbering the population loss by natural decrease. however, thanks to the slightly increased fertility the excess of the number of deaths over the number of live births of 5 727 was the lowest one since 199, while the net migration of 36 229 persons was the highest one since the establishment of the independent Czech republic in 1993.

the natural decrease triggered by low fertility rates is accompanied by the continuation of population ageing. the proportion of children below age of 15 dropped to 1.6% of population in 2005, while the share of aged 65 and over was 1.2%. in 1990 the respective proportions were 21.2% of child component and 12.6% of those aged 65.

Fertility

The number of live births of 102 211 exceeded for the first time since 1994 the level of 100 thousand. however, the total fertility rate still sustained below the lowest-low level on 1.28 children per woman. the fertility postponement is characterised by the increase in the mean age of mothers by about 4 years from 1990 to 28.6 years in 2005 (26.6 for the first child) and by the shift of the maximum fertility age from 20-22 to 28-29 years. the proportion of children born out of wedlock increased from 8.6% in 1990 to 31.7% in 2005, while this share was even higher for first children (40%), for women with basic education (68%) and varied significantly among the Local Administrative Units level 2 (from 18 to 59%). The share of premarital conceptions (first marital childbirths delivered until 8 months after marriage) dropped from around 50% in the early 1990s to 31.7% in 2005.

besides the sharp drop in marital fertility rates, the lowest-low level of fertility is largely ascribed to the postponement of fertility. in following years a more pronounced increase of fertility levels is expected, as the women who recently still postpone childbearing will reach the age around 30. already in 2005 were 21% of first children and 38% of all children born to women older than age 30.

the number of abortions was 0 023 in 2005. as compared to 1990, the number of abortions decreased by more than two thirds, due to the spread of modern contraception and the information on sex and reproductive health. the number of induced abortions was 26 53, of which 78% were performed by the means of vacuum aspiration (mini-interruptions).


Mortality

the number of deaths in 2005 was 107 938, from which 37 were infant deaths. the slight increase of the life expectancy at birth to 72.9 years for men and 79.1 years for women was recorded. Compared to 1990, the life expectancy increased by 5.3 years for men and by 3.7 years for women, the gender gap thus lowered from 7.8 to 6.2 years. the rise in life expectancy is ascribed to the improvement of health conditions among infants and among older people, especially those aged 60-80 years, while the mortality conditions of youth are stagnating since the 1990s. From the view of the causes of death, the highest improvement was registered on the field of circulatory diseases and to a lesser extent due to the better diagnostics and treatability of the cancer. however, currently about three-fourths of deaths are still ascribed to the diseases of the circulatory system and neoplasms. the infant mortality rate was 3. and the level of neonatal mortality was 2.0 deaths before reaching 28 days of life per 1000 live births.

Migration

since 2002 the external net migration has been positive and growing, reaching the highest number of 36 229 (60 29 immigrants and 2 065 emigrants) in 2005. most of the immigrants are citizens of ukraine, slovakia and vietnam. the main destination country for emigrants was ukraine.

the number of foreign citizens legally living in the Czech republic was 278 312 in 2005, amounting to 2.7% of population.

Marriage and divorce

the number of marriages stagnated on 51 829 (by 382 more than in 200), indicating low interest in marriages accompanied by the increasing popularity of cohabitation, especially among young people up to 30 years. the nuptiality table indicators signal that under current circumstances about 31% of women and 37% of men would eventually stay un-married. the trend of postponing marriages until higher age led to an increase in the mean age at first marriage to 28.1 for women and 30.7 for men, i.e. by 6.7 years since 1990.

the number of divorces in 2005 was 1 772 lower than in 200, reaching the number 31 288. Even after culmination of number of divorces in 200 (33 thousands), the level of divorce rates in the Czech republic is one of the highest in Europe; according to current rates the proportion of marriages that would be finally divorced is 47.3%. The mean duration of disrupted marriage was 12.2 years and 61.% of divorces affected minors. thus, recently every third to fourth minor child in the Czech republic experiences the divorce of own parents.

Demographic projections

Currently no new demographic projection was published in the Czech republic. the last demographic projection by the Czech Statistical Office was published in 2003. According to the expectations, the fast increase in the proportion of retired persons will start after 2009, when numerous cohorts


born by the end and after the world war ii will be entering the retirement age. as a subsequence of population ageing, by the 2030 almost 23% of population would be at post-productive age compared to the contemporary share of 1%, while the children segment would further drop to 12-13%. besides the shift of the retirement age, important political decisions dealing with the problem of population ageing are being still delayed in the Czech republic.


DeNmark

Anita Lange

Population

in 2005 the population reached 5 27 59, an increase of 16 05 or 0.29%. net immigration was responsible for 1% of the increase.

although the average age of the population during the last ten years has increased from 38.8 to 39.7 years, the ageing ratio (persons of 65 years or older per 100 persons below the age of 15) has decreased from 86 to 81. this is a consequence of an increasing percentage of persons 65 years or older from 15.1% to 15.2% and an increasing proportion of children aged 0 to 1 years from 17.5% to 18.7%.

non-nationals make up 5% of the population. the biggest group of these is turkish, (11% of all non-nationals) and 13% with citizenship in another nordic country (Finland, iceland, norway and sweden). other big national groups are: iraq (7%); Germany (5%); united kingdom (5%) and bosnia and herzegovina (5%).

Fertility

in 2005 the number of live births was 6 282. the total fertility rate was 1.802 which is a little higher than the average for the preceding 5 years (1.757). in the same span of years the average age of mothers giving birth continued to increase from 29.7 years in 2000 to 30.2 years in 2005. the net reproduction rate was 873 per 1 000 or 12.7% below replacement level.

Mortality

in 2005 the number of deaths was 5 962. life expectancy at birth has gone up steadily resulting in an increase for men from 7.5 years in 2000/01 to 75.6 years in 200/05. For women the increase is from 79.2 to 80.2 years. this development follows a period of a slower increase in life expectancy and even a tendency towards stagnation for women.

Migration

in 2005 52 58 persons immigrated to denmark and 5 869 persons emigrated resulting in a net migration of 6 589 persons. The average figure for the previous ten-year period was 53 064 immigrations, 1 138 emigrations giving a net migration of 11 926 persons. thus, even though immigration and emigration have increased, net immigration has decreased. the net immigration


of foreign citizens in 2005 was 10 369. For danish citizens the number of emigrations exceeded the immigrations by 3 780 persons.


according to the 2006 population projection, the population in denmark on 1 January 2050 will be 5.6 million.


GermaNy

Martin Conrad

Population

Germany had a population of 82 500 89 on 1 January 2005. this constitutes a slight drop of approx. 30 000 persons against the previous year. the trend of 200 continued in 2005 with a further drop of ca. 63 000 persons. 200 and 2005 were therefore two of the few calendar years in which a decline in population size was recorded. this decrease took place because the surplus of deaths over births, amounting to 112 600 in 200 and 11 00 in 2005, was not compensated by the positive migration balance of 81 800 in 200 and 79 000 in 2005 as had happened in the preceding years.

around 7 289 000 foreigners lived in Germany on 31.12.2005. the share of foreigners as against the total population is 8.8 %. the size of the foreign population was constant in comparison to 200 (7 288 000). these data come from the current statistical update of population. a second source of data on the foreign population is based on the Central register of Foreigners, according to which the number of foreigners was 6 755 000 at the end of 2005. the notable difference in comparison with the current population update is due to a different coverage of the foreign population and to different reporting paths.

Fertility

the fertility rate in Germany remains low. the number of live births fell to 685 800 in 2005, whilst it was still 767 000 in 2000. For 2005 a total fertility rate of 1.3 was recorded.

in 2005, 29.2 % of all children in Germany were born to women who were not married at the time of the birth of their child. this trend has undergone a marked increase since the start of the nineties. in the eastern part of Germany nearly 60% of all children are born to unmarried mothers.

the trend towards starting the family formation phase at a later age has continued. in 200 women were 30.9 on average when their child was born. The mean age at birth of the first child (in Germany within the current marriage) reached 29.6 years in 200.

Mortality

the results of the 2003/2005 life table show an average life expectancy of a new-born girl of 81.78 years. For new-born boys, a life expectancy of 76.21 years was recorded. the increasing trend in life expectancy continues. the life expectancy of the elderly is also still rising. womens further life expectancy at age 60 is 2.25 years, and mens 20.27 years. a reduction is also being observed in the


number of children who died before the age of one. it was 2 700 in 2005. the infant mortality rate hence fell from .1 to 3.9 in comparison to the previous year.

Migration

Germany also had a positive migration balance in 2005, which at 79 000 persons is, however, slightly lower than in the previous years (200: 82 500). 707 00 persons moved to Germany in 2005 and 628 00 left the country. the highest number of immigrants is from poland (labour migration), the Russian Federation and Turkey. There were considerable emigration flows towards Poland, Turkey and italy.


388 500 marriages were registered in 2005. Compared with 200 the number of marriages decreased slowly by 7 500.

the number of divorces was nearly constant in 200 compared with previous years (200: 213 700). The total divorce rate reached a level of 0.46. 2004 is the first year since the beginning of the nineties without a growing divorce trend.

the share of divorced marriages with children rose again after a downward trend in the nineties. 50.1 % of divorced marriages had children in 200. a total of 168 900 children were affected by their parents divorce.

Government decisions and developments in legislation

the act to Expand day-care for Children under three (Gesetz zum Ausbau der Tagesbetreuung fr Kinder unter drei Jahren), also known as the day-care Expansion act (Tagesbetreuungsausbaugesetz - TAG), has been in force since 2005. The intention pursued with the Federal Act is to define the framework for vital improvements in state-run child-care. the goal is to:

create 230 000 additional places in kindergartens and crches, and in full day-care, by 2010; improve the quality of child-care by developing childrens abilities early, and offer parents options between a variety of care arrangements. day-care is to be expanded and

improved by means of skill-building measures.


esTONia

lle Valgma

Population

the estimated population at 1 January 2006 was 1 3 68. Compared to 1 January 2005 this is approximately 0.2% lower. in 200 the natural increase was -3 693, in 2005 -2 966. in 20002003 the absolute value of natural increase was over 5 000.

in 2005 the percentage of under 15-year-olds was 15.3 and over 65-year-olds was 16.6. in 200 these percentages were 15.7 and 16., respectively. during recent years the share of persons aged 156 has increased by some tenths of percentage in a year. the share of women in the population has been stable 53.9%. the population change for 20002005 includes only the natural increase.

Fertility

in recent years fertility has increased. in 2005, 1 350 children were born. if in 200 the number of births was about 1 000 larger than in 2003, then in 2005 the number of births increased only by 358 compared to the previous year. the crude birth rate was 10.66 and the total fertility rate was 1.50 in 2005. in 200 the tFr was 1.7.

more and more women postpone childbirth to older age. Fertility rate among under 25-year-old women is decreasing and among over 25-year-old it is increasing. In 2005 the age-specific fertility rate was for the first time bigger among 3034-year-old woman than among 2024-year-old. The mean age of mother at childbirth is also continuously increasing. in 2005 the mean age of mother at childbirth and the mean age of mother at the birth of the first child were respectively 28.2 and 25.2 years.

since the number of registered marriages is small, fewer children are born to parents who are legally married. in 2005 legitimate births accounted for only 1.5%. though this does not mean that the remaining children are born to one parent only. in addition to married parents, the data of both parents are entered onto the birth record is 7.0% of all births.

the number of abortions also decreased in 2005. there were 11 835 abortions, including 9 610 legally induced abortions. the number of abortions has been smaller than the number of births since 2003. the number of legally induced abortions has been smaller than the number of births since 2000. in 2005 there were 67.0 legally induced abortions per 100 live births.


Mortality

in 200 the number of deaths was 17 658, in 2005 17 316. the absolute number of deaths is continuously declining. the number of deaths per 1 000 population (crude mortality rate) decreased in 2002005 among women and men. diseases of the circulatory system, followed by malignant neoplasms, injuries and poisonings, caused more than half of deaths.

the number of infant deaths was 90 in 200 and 78 in 2005. the infant mortality rate (the number of infant deaths per 1 000 live births) was 6. and 5., respectively. the number of stillbirths increased sharply in 2005 (63 in 200 compared to 88 in 2005). the rate of stillbirths per 1 000 births was .5 and 6.1, respectively in 200 and 2005.

the life expectancy of men in 2005 is considerably higher compared to 200, increasing a little more than by one year to the age 67.27. life expectancy of women increased less to the age 78.1 years.

Migration

the migration data for the period 2000-2005 are not published as the data on registered changes of the place of residence do not cover all the migration events and the recommended definitions on migration statistics cannot be used for these data.


in 200 the number of both marriages and divorces increased. 6 009 marriages were contracted and there were 158 divorces. the crude marriage rate was .6 and the crude divorce rate was 3.1.

The percentage of first marriages remained the same. 69.7% of newly married men and 70.8% of newly married women registered their first marriage. The mean age of men and women at first marriage continued to increase. The mean age of women and men at first marriage was 26.1 and 28.7 years respectively.

About one-fifth of divorced persons are repeatedly divorced. In 2004 there were slightly less repeat divorces for women than for men. during the last years the percentage of divorced couples with common under 18-year-old children has fallen. in 200 such couples accounted for 57.7% of the total number of divorces.


the projection period is covered until 2050 and four main scenarios based on different assumptions have been worked out: the first, if fertility and mortality will remain constant; the second, if moderate increases in fertility concur with moderate decreases in mortality; the third, if the main change in fertility and mortality will occur at the mid of the projection period (with the net international migration positive, negative or zero) and fourth, if fertility will remain constant, but mortality will decrease.



a complement to the Family law act applied starting from 1 december 2001 allows ministers of religion to compile marriage records and issue marriage certificates. Starting from 1 January 2004 the aliens law includes the obligation of an alien having a residence permit in Estonia to register their place of residence in the population register within one month of their arrival in Estonia. starting from 27 may 2005 the population register act includes the obligation of any person who changes his or her place of residence in Estonia to register the new place of residence in the population register. they should inform the municipality within 30 days of their arrival in the new place of residence.


spaiN

Population

Population figures for the 2001 Census showed an important increase for the corresponding intercensal period: between 1991 and 2001, population in spain experienced an increase of 5.1% for the whole period, that is, 1 975 000 more inhabitants in the last Census than in the previous one. total population according to 1st november 2001 Census was 0 87 371.

population estimate (now-cast) for 2006 year is 3 758 250 inhabitants, being the estimated increase during the year 2005 about 720 215 inhabitants.

those increases have been mainly due to migration. Figures on net immigration have risen considerably from 1998. also, the total fertility rate has stopped decreasing since 1999. mortality rates continue their favourable trend.

in 1980, the number of people aged 65 and over was 230 000 persons. this number has increased by slightly more than a million in the following ten years (1991 Census). The figure for 2001 Census was 6 959 000 persons aged 65 and plus. this means that the percentage of the population aged 65 and older rose from 11.2 in 1980, to 13.8 in 1990 and reached 17.0 in 2001.

The estimated figure for 2006 is 7 308 000 persons, 16.7%, aged 65 and plus.

Fertility

the number of live births in spain registered an important decrease from the late seventies to the early nineties. in 1980 there were 571 000 births and in 1991 there were less than 00 000.

in the second half of the nineties, birth rate trends have changed and during the nineties, the decrease has slowed down. since 1995, it has stabilized to some extent. From 1999 up to now the number of births has begun to increase.

the recent increase in the percentage of foreign women in spain, a population with a young age-structure, has made an important contribution to this increase. in 200, the number of live births was 455 000 being the crude 10.65 inhabitants. Provisional figures for 2005 are, respectively, 466 000 and 10.7 .

the total number of live births outside marriage has been increasing from 22 000 in 1980 to 11 000 in 200 (respectively, 3.9% and 25.1% of the total births).

in terms of fertility, the decreasing number of births means that the average number of children per woman decreased during the eighties to reach a level that was almost 0.0% below the replacement


level. thus, while in 1980 the total fertility rate was 2.2, it was down to 1.36 in 1990. total fertility rate continued decreasing during the nineties, reaching its lowest value in 1998, being 1.16 children per woman (that is, 45% below the replacement level). In 2004, the latest year for which final figures on births are available, total fertility rate was 1.33; the estimated figure for 2005 year is 1.34.

Observed specific fertility rates, during 1998-2004, have shown a certain recovery at all ages except those ages around 25-32 years old.

recent development of the mean age at childbearing shows an increasing trend: it was 28.9 years in 1990 year and 30.9 in 200 year.

Mortality

during the eighties and nineties, the number of deaths as well as the crude mortality rate, showed an increasing trend, due to the ageing process of the spanish population.

in 1980, 290 000 deaths were recorded, being the corresponding crude rate 7.7 inhabitants. in 1990 year, 333 000 deaths and a rate of 8.57 were recorded. Last available final figures registered 372 000 deaths and a crude rate of 8.71 for 2004 year. Provisional figures for 2005 are 387 000 deaths and a crude rate of 8.92 .

the number of deaths among children under one year of age was halved during the eighties, as a result of the lower number of births and the decreasing infant mortality. the infant mortality rate has decreased from 12.3 deaths of children aged less than one year per 1000 live births in 1980 to 3.99 in 200.

Life expectancy at birth continues its favourable trend. Last available figures, calculated according to deaths observed in 2003 and 200 years, were 76.68 years for men and 83.21 for women.

Migration

The flows of net immigration (arrivals less departures) in the country, including Spaniards and foreigners, showed a total amount of about 170 000 arrivals in the 1981-1990 period.

during the period 1991-1996, an annual average of 35 000 net arrivals were registered, followed by spectacular increases in the following years. In fact, figures for 1997 and 1998 were, respectively, 6 000 and 123 000; for the year 2000 there were 360 000.

Observed figures for 2004 and 2005 are, respectively, 629 000 and 651 000.

as a high proportion of these entrances are foreign citizens, the percentage of foreign residents in spain increases notably from about 0.5% of the total population in 1980, to 1.1% at the end of 1990, to 2.2% at the end of 2000.


Foreign resident proportion reached 3.8% in the 2001 Census. Estimated figure at mid-year 2005 is 8.5%.


the number of marriages and the corresponding crude marriage rate showed a decreasing trend for a large part of the nineties. However, according to the latest available figures, since 1996 this decline has stopped. in 200, 216 000 marriages were recorded being the corresponding crude rate 5.1 . According to the provisional figures, the number of marriages in 2005 was 209 000 and the crude rate .8 .

The proportion of first marriages is decreasing for both sexes, but their share of the total number of marriages is still high: 91.0% and 92.2%, respectively for men and women (2004 figures).

Total first marriage rates show a similar trend. In 1990, 0.70 first marriages per woman and 0.68 marriages per man were obtained. The corresponding figures for 1997 were 0.59 and 0.57 respectively. The latest available figures for 2004 are 0.58 and 0.54 respectively for women and men.

Since the beginning of the eighties, the mean age at first marriage has been increasing: In 1980 it was 26.2 for men and 23.9 for women. Corresponding figures for 1990 were 27.8 and 25.6; for 2004 year they reached 31.2 and 29.2, respectively for men and women.

after the divorce act was passed in June 1981, 9 500 divorces were registered in a period of six months, with a crude divorce rate of 0.3 . in 1982, the number of divorces was 20 000 and the rate was 0.6 per thousand inhabitants. between 1981 and 1989, the average annual number of divorces was 20 000 and the crude rate 0.5 per thousand inhabitants, with a slight increase from the year 1985 onwards. the number of divorces in 200 was 51 000, that is, 1.2 per thousand inhabitants.

The number of consensual unions were 221 000 in the 1991 Census. This figure has notably increased, reaching 56 000 in the 2001 Census. new increases are expected from the year 2002 onwards.


Intercensus population figures for the 1991-2001 period have been updated, for the total, the autonomous communities and the provinces populations.

Two population scenarios have been established under different hypothesis on net migration flows. the components method has been used, being time horizon the year 2060.

The difficulties inherent to immigration measure has made necessary to calculate now-casts, according to successive available data on migration flows. These now-casts are available from 1st January 2002 to 1st July 2006.



on January 2000, a new Foreigners act was passed. its main objectives were the rights and liberties of foreigners in spain and their social integration. it also established the procedure for the regularization of foreign people who were in spain before 1st June 1999 and who had applied for (or already had) a working and residence permit. as a consequence, about 20 000 demands for regularization were presented in 2000.

another process for regularization of foreigners who could prove to have deep-rooted links with the country was carried out during 2001.

last regularization process of the foreign residents in spain took place in 2005 (from march to may). it was addressed to non-European union citizens without a residence permit, who were registered in Padron (spanish population municipality registers) before august 200.

about 700 000 non European union foreigners applied for this regularisation; 90% of them have been solved favourably.

as far as the situation of families is concerned, an act was passed in January 2000 which included measures to improve family protection, but it is not expected to have an influence on fertility trends.


irelaND

Population

immigration into ireland in the twelve months to april 2006 is estimated at 86 900 while the number of emigrants in the same period was 17 000, resulting in a net migration total of 69 900. births exceeded deaths by 34 200 in the same period. The combined effect of these two flows resulted in a population increase of 10 100 bringing the population estimate to 23 900 in april 2006, which is a 2.5 per cent increase on the previous april.

the young dependency ratio (29.8 %), though declining, remains quite high by European standards. it stood at 52 % over twenty years ago.

Fertility

The number of births registered in 2005 was 61 042, a decrease of 642 on the 2004 figure. The total number of births declined from a peak of 7 00 in 1980 to a low of 7 900 in 199. the birth rate was 1.8 in 2005 compared with 21.9 in 1980. a total of 32 % of births were outside marriage in 2005 compared with 5 % in 1980. The figure has been steadily increasing in recent years.

Over 40.5 % of the births in 2005 were first order births compared with 20 % in 1960. By way of contrast, fourth and higher order births, which accounted for nearly 5 % of the 1960 births, only accounted for 10 % of the 2005 births.

the total fertility rate has steadily declined in ireland since the mid-sixties. in 196 the rate was .06, in 1981 it was 3.07 and in 1989 it was 2.08. the total fertility rate continued to fall to 1.85 in 199 and 1995 but since then has increased to 1.88 in 2005.

Mortality

there were 27 1 deaths registered in 2005 giving a crude rate of 6.6 , lower than in most European countries because of the young age profile of the Irish population. This represents a decrease of 710 on the 2004 figure.

Migration

the 2002 Census of population recorded 76 10 people who were usually resident in the country on census night and whose usual residence one year previously was outside the state. the united kingdom was the country of origin for about one-third, while 13 % came from other Eu countries.


other European countries accounted for about 11 %, the usa for 8 % while approximately one third originated from countries outside Europe and the usa.


the number of marriages declined from a peak of 21 800 in 1980 to 15 600 in 1995. recent years have witnessed an upward movement to 20 723 in 2005.

In 1997, the first year in which divorce legislation operated, there were 95 divorces granted. There were 3 11 divorces granted in 2005.


the most recent set of population projections uses the 2002 Census of population as a benchmark and covers the period to 2036. six scenarios are presented corresponding to three fertility and two migration variants. the high scenario (m1F1) assumes that immigration will continue at a high level and then moderate coupled with a total fertility rate increasing from its 2003 level of 1.98 to reach 2 by 2011 and remaining constant thereafter. the low variant (m2F3) would see immigration continuing at more moderate levels coupled with the total fertility rate falling to 1.7 by 2011 and being maintained at that level for the remainder of the projection period.

the population is projected to increase under all scenarios reaching 5 820 300 under m1F1 and 982 800 under m2F3. the old population (i.e. those aged 65 years and over) is projected to more than double between 2001 and 2036 under all combinations of assumptions chosen. the relevant population will be 1 15 300 under m1 and 1 119 000 under m2. the very old population (i.e. those aged 80 years and over) is projected to increase from its 2001 level of 98 000 to over 323 000 in 2036.


Following an amendment to the Constitution which was approved in a referendum taken on 2 November 1995, the Family Law (Divorce) Act, 1996 passed into law in 1996. To date no provision has been made for the collection of divorce statistics in ireland.


iTaly

Maria Pia Sorvillo

Population

on 31 december 2005 italy had a resident population of 58 751 711. on 31 december 200 it was 58 62 375, an increase of 0.5% of the population. this was due to a positive balance of migration movement. during 2005 the number of deaths exceeded the number of births by almost 13 300, a negative balance like every previous year, with the only exception of 200. the migratory balance showed a surplus of about 260 600 persons which represents a significant increase. Another increase of about 2 000 units is due to administrative adjustment. data by gender shows that women are the majority of population with 51. per cent (30 22 823).

Fertility

there were 55 022 live births in 2005, slightly lower than in 200 (562 599). however, compared to the number of live births recorded in 1995 (526 06), when it reached the lowest number of births in the last decades, the increase remains quite significant.

the number of live births outside marriage increased from 81 770 in 200 to 95 in 2005. presently they represent 17.4 % of the total number of live births. This shows a significant increase if one looks at the corresponding number for 1990 (36 810).

the total fertility rate in 2005 is still among the lowest in Europe, although, in the last 5 years, it has increased from 1.23 (1999) to 1.32 (estimates based on provisional data).

Legally induced abortion

induced abortion has been legal since 1978. the number of legally induced abortions in 2003 was 124 118. The induced abortion rate (per 1000 women aged 15-49) did not change significantly since 2000 after the regular decrease starting in the mid-1980s.

this is due to different behaviour of women according to age. among younger women (aged 15-19 and 20-2) the recourse to induced abortion has increased over recent years (+2.6 cases per 1000 women in both age classes between 1993 and 2003); on the other hand, the rate for older women (aged 30-3, 35-39 and 0-) has shown a small regular decrease from 1980 to 2003.


Mortality

the crude death rate for resident population was 10.3 in 2003 (9.7 in 1993). the total number of deaths was 588,897 in 2003. life expectancy at birth continues to increase; in 2003 it was 76.9 years for men (7.1 in 1993) and 82.9 years for women (80.5 in 1993).

infant mortality continues to decline; 2,13 children under one year old died in 2003. this is equivalent to an infant mortality rate of .0 , compared to .5 in 2000 and 10 in 1986.

when assessing the main causes of death, data show that death due to tumours has slightly increased, the crude death rate has changed from 32.5 (per 10,000) in 1993 to 33.8 (per 10,000) in 2003 (estimated values) for men and from 21.9 (per 10,000) in 1993 to 23.1 (per 10,000) in 2003 for women. deaths due to diseases of the circulatory system continue to be the most frequent cause. the crude death rate has reached, in 2003 (estimated values), 38.9 (per 10,000) for men and 6.8 (per 10,000) for women (compared to 0.1 and .5 respectively in 1993).

Migration

Italys demographic development is increasingly influenced by international migration. In 2005 the net migration balance was positive at national level (about 260 000 people), and lower than in 200 (about 380 000). the foreign population resident in italy was, according to population data in the municipal registers on 31 december 2005, about 2 670 000. this constitutes an increase of 11.2 % compared to the previous year, and the share of the total resident population on the same date was .5 %.

of the total number of foreigners living in italy at the end of 2005, 7.3 % were Europeans (38. % from Central and Eastern Europe); 26.0 % from africa (18.2 % from north africa); 17.0 % from asia and 9.6 % from the americas. in 2005 there was a notable increase in the number of people coming from Central and Eastern Europe (+13.6 %), from asia (+12.3 %) and from Central and south america (+11.9 %).

the majority of the foreign population lives in the northwest, northeast and Central regions of italy (36.6 %, 27. and 2.0 % respectively), and a minority lives in the south (12.0 %). the foreign population is generally found in the main urban areas, although the share of those living in provincial capitals (capoluoghi di provincia) has decreased in recent years.


The number of marriages in 2005 was 250 976 (provisional data), a figure that shows a -2.2 % decrease compared to 2003. during the 1990s the total number of marriages fell from around 319 000 in 1990 to 285 000 in 2000. the proportion of religious marriages decreased from 83.2 % in 1990 to 75.3 % in 2000.

In 2003, 243 799 (31.9) men and 246 751 (29.1) women married for the first time, mean age in parentheses. the observed tendency of postponing marriage continues for both men and women.


remarriages are increasing, remaining more popular among men: in 2003, 20 298 men and 17 36 women remarried. the percentage of remarriages has increased: in 1980 it was .0 % for men and 2.2 % for women; in 1990, 5.0 % for men and 3.3 % for women and in 2003, 7.7 % for men and 6.6 % for women.

The number of divorces in 2004 was 45 097, a figure that shows a 2.8 % increase compared to 2003. during the last ten years, the total number of divorces grew to around 67 % (equal to 27 038 in 1995).


cyprus

Ioanna Chappa

Population

the total population of Cyprus is estimated at 85 300 on 1st January 2006, compared with 837 300 in the previous year, an increase of 2.0%. These figures cover the population in the Government controlled area of Cyprus as well as estimates of the turkish Cypriot community in the turkish occupied area.

in 2005 the population increase is explained by an overall net migration rate of 16.3 and a natural increase rate of 3.7 population. in the last decade there was a decreasing, though positive natural increase and a sizeable net migration balance, so that in the last five years 2001-2005 the contribution of the net migration balance to the overall population growth exceeded the natural increase.

Furthermore the total population growth conceals differences between the population growth in the Government controlled area and that of the turkish Cypriot community in the turkish occupied area. this difference is exclusively due to migration movements as both fertility and mortality are about the same for the two communities.

the population in the Government controlled area is estimated at 766 00 on 1st January 2006. the age structure of the population reflects the past trends in the number of births, the increasing life expectancy and the inflow of migrants in the young working ages. The proportion of the population aged 65 and over increased to 12.1% compared to 11.0% in 1992 and 10.8% in 1982. on the lower end of the age pyramid the proportion of children below the age of 15 dropped to 18.%, compared with 25.% in 1992 and 25.0% in 1982.

Fertility

the total number of births is estimated at 9 213 in 2005.

in the Government controlled area the number of births decreased slightly to 8 23 in 2005 from 8 309 the year before. the crude birth rate decreased to 10.9 per thousand population from 11.3 in 200, while the total fertility rate decreased to 1.2 children per woman compared to 1.9 in the previous year and 1.50 in 2003.

the pattern of fertility has been changing. the contribution to total fertility of the age-group 25-29 increased compared to the contribution of the age-group 20-24 as shown by the age specific fertility rates which are now highest for the 25-29 age-group. Furthermore there is an increase in the share to total fertility of the 30-3 age-group, the 35-39 and the 0+. this is in line with the general increases in the mean age at birth of first child and the mean age at birth of any child which reached 27.4 and 29. years respectively in 2005.


the proportion of extra-marital births, though increasing, remains low in Cyprus constituting only .% of the total in 2005.

Mortality

in 2005 the total number of deaths is estimated at 6 063.

in the Government controlled area the number of deaths was 5 25 giving a crude death rate of 7.2. the infant mortality rate is estimated at .6 live births in 2005. life expectancy at birth was calculated at 77.0 for males and 81.7 for females according to the most recent life tables of 200/2005.

Migration

overall, the net migration balance is positive. it is estimated at about 13 800 in 2005, compared to 15 700 in 2004.This reflects mainly the net migration balance in the Government controlled area, as the net migration of turkish Cypriots in the occupied area was estimated nil in 200 and negative in 2005.


in 2005 the total number of marriages was estimated at 13 39.

in the Government controlled area the number of marriages was 12 966 in 2005 compared to 10 931 the year before. These figures include an increasing number of foreigners who married in Cyprus but are not residents of Cyprus.

as from 200 it has been possible to separate the number of marriages of residents. in 2005 the number of marriages of residents totalled 5 881 giving a crude marriage rate of 7.8 per thousand population, compared to 5 39 and 7.3 respectively the previous year. Further analysis is based on residents only.

There is a rising trend in the age at first marriage for both men and women. Mean age of men at first marriage increased from 25.7 in the period 197-1977 to 29.3 in 2005. similarly mean age of women at first marriage increased from 22.9 to 27.2 in the same period.

Remarriages are also increasing in number. Whereas first marriages of both parties constituted almost 93% of all marriages in the period 1975-1978, this proportion decreased to 73% in 2005.

the total number of divorces is estimated at 1690 in 2005.

in the Government controlled area the number of divorces declined to 1 51 from 1 61 the year before and the crude divorce rate decreased to 2.0 per thousand population from 2.3. the total divorce rate, which shows the proportion of marriages that are expected to end up in divorce,


decreased to 233 per thousand marriages from 26 in 200. it remains to be seen whether this is only a temporary fluctuation which will not alter the general rising trend.

Though there are no regular official statistics on the number of consensual unions, this life style as an alternative to marriage is rare in Cyprus. however, there is a growing tendency of young persons living together during the engagement period preceding marriage. the census of 2001 enumerated 0.7% of the population living in consensual unions.


on the basis of the Census results a set of demographic projections covering the Government controlled area was compiled for the period 2002-2052.

the projection assumes a fertility decline with the total fertility rate reaching 1.3 in the period 2017-2022 and remaining at this level thereafter. life expectancy at birth is assumed to increase gradually and reach 79.0 for males and 85.0 for females at the end of the projection period. a positive net migration balance is assumed throughout the projection period, with an annual balance of +6 000 in the first 5-year period, declining gradually to +3 000 in 2012 and remaining at this level till the end of the projection period.

under these assumptions the population will be growing until 2032 when it is expected to reach 851 800, it will remain at this level until 2037 and from then onwards it will start declining reaching 822 100 in 2052. The population age structure will undergo significant changes. The proportion of children aged under 15 is expected to decrease substantially to 13.1% in 2032 and 11.0% in 2052. in contrast, the proportion of the elderly aged 65 years and over will be increasing to 21.3% in 2032 and 28.7% in 2052.


laTvia

Uldis Usackis

Population

at the beginning of 2006, the resident population of latvia stood at 2 29 590. since 2000, latvias population has decreased by 87 100 persons, or by 3.7 %, (11 8 in 2005). this calculation is based on the final results of the 2000 Population and Housing Census and the data of the current demographic statistics.

in 2005, the average age of the population increased by 0.2 years and was 0.2 years at the beginning of 2006. the average age of men was 37.3 years and that of women 2.5 years. data on the age structure of the population show that the population of latvia continues to age.

at the beginning of 2006, only 1.3 % of the population was aged 0-1, 21.3 % was of post-productive age (62+ for men and 60+ for women), and 6. % was of working age. the latter category - share of population of working age - was 58.9 % at the beginning of 2000. the increase in the proportion of the working age population is the result of a change to retirement age by the latvias legislation.

nowadays, the proportions of men and women in the population are almost equal. at the beginning of 2006 the proportion of men was 6.1 %. they outnumbered women in all age groups up to 33 years. in age groups 3 years and above they were in a minority, with the most pronounced female surplus in age groups over 70.

statistical data show a change in the ethnic composition of the population in recent years. during the last five years, the percentage of ethnic Latvians has increased from 57.9 % to 59.0 % at the beginning of 2006. however, in riga - the Capital city - the percentage of ethnic latvians is less than half - 2. %.

the population density is 35.5 inhabitants per square kilometre.

Fertility

the number of live births was 21 97 in 2005 (2 135 in 1987, the highest number in the post-war period), which is equal to a total fertility rate of 1.31. after the peak in 1986-1987 (2.21), the total fertility rate fell to 1.11 in 1998 to slightly increase again in 1999-2000 and in 200-2005. at present it is slightly over half of the replacement level (2.1 - 2.2) and is one of the lowest in Europe.

increase of fertility in last the year has been observed for females aged 25 - 29 (by 8 % compared with the year 200), aged 30 - 3 (by 1 %) and aged 35 - 39 (by 12 %).


the mean age of mothers of new-born is 28.0 years which represents an increase of 0.7 years since 2000, but the mean age of mothers at first birth (25.2) has gone up by 0.8 years.

it is envisaged that the number of females in the fertile age will not decrease in the coming years as women born in the 80s - when fertility observed was the highest in the post-war period - are now of fertile age.

an increase in illegitimate births has been observed in latvia. in 2005, .6 % of all births belonged to females not legally married (0.5 % in urban and 53.2 % in rural areas). in 1990, only 16.9 % of births were out of wedlock (15.2 % in urban and 19.9 % in rural areas).

Mortality

the number of deaths in 2005 was 32 777 (32 205 in 2000). the crude death rate increased from 13.6 in 2000 to 1.2 in 2005. the death rate was 13.6 for urban population and 15.7 for rural population. the overall mortality rates for men exceeded the indicators of women 1.2 times on average.

the mortality trends in latvia are rather different from those of the developed European countries. 55.1 % of all deaths were caused by diseases of the circulatory system (786 per 100 000 population), followed by 18.0 % from neoplasms (257 per 100 000 population), and 9.8 % from external causes (10 per 100 000 population).

life expectancy at birth was 65.6 years for men and 77. for women (6.9 and 76.0 in 2000, respectively).

In 2005, 168 infant deaths were recorded in the first year of life; this represents the lowest infant mortality rate in the post-war period - 7.8 deaths in the first year of life per 1000 live births.

Migration

According to Recommendations of the United Nations in the first place, data on long-term migrants have been compiled and published. this category includes persons arriving into the country for a permanent settlement or for a stay period of one year or more and persons departing from the given country to another with an aim to change the permanent place of residence or to stay in this destination country for one year or more. the criteria of time allow separating the long-term migrants from another flows of border crossing persons - tourists, excursionists, and short-term migrants.

the data compiled on long-term migration of the latvian population in 2005 show evidence of notable decrease of the high number of departures observed in early 1990s.

in 2005, 1886 persons arrived in latvia for permanent stay (by 13.3 % more than the preceding year), while 250 persons left for permanent stay in other countries. the resident population of latvia decreased by 56 persons in 2005 due to international migration.


the majority of emigrants who left for western countries went to Germany (261), united kingdom (189), usa (166), ireland (83), sweden (7), France (), and israel (35). Emigrants to our neighbouring countries lithuania and Estonia were 10 and 73, respectively. the majority of emigrants who left for Eastern European countries went to the russian Federation (76), ukraine (11), and belarus (113).

In reality, the international migration statistics data do not reflect movements of the population accurately enough. to ensure internationally comparable migration statistics data, very promising seems the regulation of the European parliament and of the Council on Community statistics on migration and international protection that is close to adoption.

the declaration of place of residence law had a major impact on national internal migration with volumes in 2005 reaching 1.7 times more those of 2002 comprising 5 37 and 31 13 persons respectively. since it came into force (1 July 2003), the number of changes to the place of residence recorded at local level has increased rapidly.

the proportion of internal migration to the total migration volume of 2005 was 96 %, while international migration constituted %.

the number of foreigners in the country is currently 38 100 persons, or about 1.7 % of the total population. among the residents of latvia there are more than 18 000 non-citizens of latvia, which are not counted among foreigners. since 2000 the Central statistical bureau processes and publishes a detailed breakdown of the population by country of citizenship.

in 2005, in compliance with the un recommendations, the Csb of latvia compiled also data on international short-term migration (period of stay - over 3 months but less than 1 year). there were 1 707 short-term immigrants and 1 103 emigrants recorded in latvia in 2005.


in 2005, 12 5 marriages were contracted in latvia representing a 36.2 % increase compared to 2000, and 21 % increase compared with the previous year. between 2000 and 2005 the crude marriage rate increased essentially - from 3.9 to 5.5.

The average age at first marriage is currently 26.0 years for brides and 28.2 years for bridegrooms, which is respectively . % and .8 % higher than in 2000.

in 2005, 20.8 % of the bridegrooms and 20.1 % of the brides with latvian ethnicity married a partner of a different ethnicity.

roughly one half of the population aged 18 and over (51.9 % of males and 3.7 % of females) is legally married. the share of married persons has decreased in 2005 if compared with the previous year. as in other European countries, cohabitation has become more common in recent years.

6 31 divorces were registered in 2005, a small increase of 207 (3. %) compared to 2000. the number of divorces in 2005 was 505 per 1000 marriages and the crude divorce rate was 2.8.



in compliance with the requests of ministries and other governmental agencies, as well as international organisations, a new set of demographic projections for the period up to the year 2050 has been developed by the Statistical Office of the European Communities - Eurostat in co-operation with the department of demography at the university of latvia and with the Central statistical bureau of latvia. the 2000 population and housing Census data and recent statistical data on demographic development and migration served as a background for these projections. on this basis, the in-country demographic projections will be carried out for the 7 largest cities under the state jurisdiction, and 26 rural districts.


the parliament of latvia adopted amendments to the law on state statistics of the republic of latvia that came into effect on 1 april 2006. the law states that statistics shall be produced according to the requirements and recommendations of international organisations. it also states that the methods used in state statistics and the prepared information shall be impartial and independent of political processes and interest groups, the statistical information shall be available to state and local government institutions as well as to the general public. if summary statistical data have been collected according to the state statistical programme adopted by the Government of latvia, these data are available for users free of charge.


liThuaNia

Danguole Svidleriene

Population

at the beginning of 2006 the estimated population of lithuania was 3 03 28 of which 1 586 650 (6.6 %) were men and 1 816 63 (53. %) women. since 1992 the population decreased by 30 3015 persons or 8.2 % (22 00 less than in 2005). population decrease was mostly due to negative net migration (by 235 375 persons).

since 199 the country has experienced a natural decrease. in 2005, the natural decrease was 13 258 which is 2 337 people (21.%) more than in 200.

the age structure shows an ageing population. at the beginning of 2006, 20. % of the population was aged 60 and older; the proportion of children (aged 01) was 16.5 %. over the period 19952006 the number of children and population aged 1559 decreased by 29.8 and 2.8 % respectively, while the population aged 60 and older increased by 9.6 %. at the beginning of 2006, the number of men aged 60 and older amounted 250 531 and women amounted to 3 22, i.e. each sixth man and each fourth woman were in this age group.

at the beginning of 2006, the population density was 52.1 inhabitants per square kilometre.

Fertility

the total number of live births was 30 51 in 2005 which is 122 more than in 200. since 1991 fertility has been constantly decreasing. there were 30 19 live births in 200 which is 26 9 (6.5 %) less than in 1990. the total fertility rate was 1.27 in 2005. the total fertility rate fell from 1.55 to 1.26 during the period 1995200.

The most significant decline in 19952005 is observed in the age groups of under 20 and among 202 year olds. in these groups the fertility level has fallen by 55.1% and .1 % respectively. The mean age of mothers at the birth of their first child was 24.9 in 2005, an increase of 1.8 years compared with 1995.

The number of first and second live births has been decreasing and in 2005 amounted to 83.3 % of all live births (8.8 % in 1995). however, the share of the fourth and higher birth order has increased and in 2005 it accounted for 6.6 % of all live births (5.5 % in 1995).

over the period 19952005 the number of children born outside marriage increased 1.7 times and represents 28. % of all births in 2005.


Mortality

in 2005, 3 799 deaths were registered which is 259 more than in 200. since 1990 essential changes in mortality have been observed; over the period 1990199 mortality rate increased by 17.6 %. during the period 19952000 the mortality rate decreased by 11.2 %. since 2001, it has been increasing, and in 2005 it was by 0.8 % higher than in 199.

the number of deaths of infants under one year was 209 in 2005, 31 less than in 200. in 2005, the infant mortality rate was 6.9 per thousand live births, , % less than in 1995.

in 2005, life expectancy of men was 65. and of women 77. years. the difference in life expectancy between men and women is high 12 years. over the period 19952005 a decrease in life expectancy was observed: 2.1 years for men and 2. years for women.

during the period 19952005 as much as 85 % of the total number of deaths fell within the three main causes of death: diseases of the circulatory system, malignant neoplasms and external causes of mortality. in 2005, 5.9 % of mens and 6.1 % of womens deaths were attributed to diseases of the circulatory system. mortality due to malignant neoplasms accounts for 18. % of all deaths. of great concern to society is mortality due to external causes which accounted for 18. % of male and 6.0 % of female deaths in 2005. the highest number of deaths, caused by the external causes of mortality, included intentional self-harm 23.8 %; transport accidents 15,9 %; accidental poisoning by and exposure to alcohol 8.2 %; drowning and submersion 7.0% and assault 5.7 %.

Migration

in 2005, 6 789 persons immigrated to lithuania, 1236 more than in 200. the biggest share of immigrants were aged 1559 (8.5 %), children aged 01 (10.3 %) and persons aged 60 and older (5.2 %). Citizens of the republic of lithuania compared to the total number of immigrants were 69.3 %.

In the first quarter of 2006, statistics Lithuania carried out a survey, which allowed estimating the number of residents of Lithuania, who unofficially left the country in 20012005. The survey results showed that only each second-third resident of lithuania declares his departure when emigrating. Taking into consideration non-official emigration in 20012005, about 128 thousand persons emigrated from lithuania. most people emigrated to the united kingdom, ireland, usa, Germany, russian Federation and spain. the biggest part (21 %) of the emigrants were aged 2529, while people aged 202 made up 16 %, and those aged 303 represented 13 % of the emigrants.


in 2005, 19 938 marriages were contracted which is 808 more than in 200. however, the number of marriages decreased from 3 21 in 1991 to 15 76 in 2001. the crude marriage rate has been increasing: in 2002 by . %, compare with previous year, in 200 by 1.3% and in 2005 by 3.6%.


The average age at first marriage for women was 24.9 years in 2005 and 22.4 years in 1995 and for men was 27.0 years and 2.3 years respectively. in 2005, 20.9 % of women and 23.2 % of men had been married previously.

the total number of divorces was 11 097 in 2005. since 1990 the number of divorces has been increasing and in 1991 it reached a peak (15 250). From 1995 the number of divorces has been quite stable: 10 000 11 000 couples divorced annually. the number of divorces per 1000 population was about 3. in 2005, the average duration of marriage was 12.9 years. the total divorce rate indicates that 6 % of all marriages end in divorce. the number of divorces involving dependant children under 18 was quite stable: 36.7 % of couples who divorced in 2005 did not have common children, 1.6% had one child and 21.7% had two and more children.


luxembOurG

Germaine Thill

Population

in 2005 the population increased by 500 (+1.0%) and on 1 January 2006 totalled 59 500.

in contrast with 200, the migration balance (+2 671 in 2005) apparently again exceeded the natural balance of +1 750 in 2005 (-58 for luxembourg nationals and +2 33 for foreigners).

the percentage of foreign residents continued to grow and was 39.6% in 2005, compared with 39.0% in 200.

Fertility

after the increase recorded in 200, the number of births fell slightly from 5 52 in 200 to 5 371 in 2005 (-1.5%). this reduction was the result of fewer luxembourg births (down from 2 533 in 200 to 2 03 in 2005, a reduction of 5.1%), while foreign births increased slightly from 2 919 to 2 968 (+1.7%). as in the previous three years, the number of foreign births exceeded the number of luxembourg births and they now account for more than 55% of all births in the country.

In 2005 the total fertility rate was 1.70 children per woman. The figure for Luxembourg women was 1.53 and for foreign women 1.92. The overall figure for 2004 was 1.70, with total fertility rates of 1.56 for luxembourg women and 1.92 for foreign women.

the number of births outside marriage is steadily rising and reached 27.2% of all births in 2005 compared with 26.1% in 200.

the average age of a mother giving birth was 30.9 among luxembourg women and 30.2 among foreign women.

Mortality

the number of deaths, which had gone down sharply in 200 (3 578 deaths in 200, compared with 4 053 in 2003), rose slightly in 2005 to give a final figure of 3 621 (+1.2%). This trend was marked among foreign residents, where the number of deaths rose from 571 to 63. on the other hand, there was a slight decline in the number of deaths among luxembourgers: 2 987 deaths in 2005 compared with 3 007 in 200. it should be noted, however, that in absolute terms the number of deaths among the foreign population remains very low because of its very young age structure.


the crude death rate remained below 8 and in 2005 was 7.92 (compared with 7.89 in 200).

the improvement in the infant mortality rate (children below the age of one) recorded in 200, when there were 21 infant deaths compared with 26 the year before, continued again in 2005 when there was another sharp drop (1 deaths). this infant mortality rate of 2.6 is the lowest ever recorded in Luxembourg. The figure for 2004 was 3.9.

Migration

as for international migration flows, the point which emerges is that there should perhaps be an upward revision of the figures based on a file extracted from Luxembourgs Rpertoire Gnral des Personnes Physiques (general register of natural persons) and made available to statEC by the Centre Informatique de lEtat (national computing centre). Errors seem to have slipped into the processing of the file concerning Luxembourg city.


in recent years the number of marriages has remained more or less steady. in 2005 there were 2 032 marriages, compared with 1 999 in 200, and the marriage rate was . per 1000 inhabitants. the age when marrying for the first time continues to rise, and in 2005 the age for men was 31.9 and for women 29.5. in 2000 the respective ages had been 30.7 and 28.1. men were thus marrying 1.2 years later than six years previously, and the difference in the case of women was 1.4 years. The first-marriage indicator was 0.58 for men and 0.516 for women.

there is very little change from year to year in the number of divorces. there were 1 06 divorces in 2005 compared with 1 055 in 200. the divorce rate is 2.29 per 1000 inhabitants and the total divorce rate stands at 0.9. nearly half the marriages which take place in any year will thus end in divorce, if the frequency of divorce by length of marriage continues at the 2005 rate.

Government decisions and changes in legislation

There is draft legislation which would replace divorce on specific grounds, especially on grounds of fault, by a new form of divorce by mutual consent, such as divorce because of the irreconcilable breakdown of a marriage. similarly, the conditions and arrangements for divorce by mutual consent are to be adapted. in general terms, the divorce proceedings will be modernised and in some respects simplified, the aim being to make relations between partners easier before and during a divorce, especially for the more important benefit of any children. The current system of alimony payments between husband and wife is to be changed in order to make it fairer.

Consideration is currently being given to supplementing civil and criminal law by legislation to prevent and curb marriages of convenience and forced marriages.


a draft law will be submitted to the Chamber of deputies to make it possible when applying for luxembourg nationality to keep ones nationality of origin, and vice versa. dual nationality will be introduced in line with residence requirements allowing proper assimilation and integration.


huNGary

Population

on 1st January 2006 the population was estimated at 10 076 600 which is 21 000 less than in the previous year. the natural decrease in 2005 was 3.8 compared to 3.7 in 200. because of the positive balance of international migration the actual population decrease in 2005 was 2.1 , by 0.2 more than in the previous year. in recent decades population development can be divided into two distinctive periods. The first period, characterised by moderate growth, ended in 1980 at which point the population reached its maximum size of 10 709 63. the second period, from 1981 onwards, is characterised by a continuous decrease: from 1981 to 2005 the population decreased by 5.9 %.

the decrease of the population took place simultaneously with the ageing process of the population. on 1st January 2006 the ratio of children under 15 years was 15. % compared to 20.5 % in 1990. however, the proportion of persons over 65 years was 15.8 %, compared to 13.2 % in 1990. the composition of the population by marital status changed significantly. At the end of 2005 only 48.7 % of the adult population over 1 years of age was married, while in 1990 their ratio was 61.2 %. during this period the ratio of never married persons increased from 20.3 % to 30.0 %. there were 1 106 females per 1 000 males at the end of 2005.

Fertility

the total fertility rate reached its historical minimum in 2003 and in 200, which was equal to 1.28 per woman. between 1990 and 200 the level of general fertility fell by 22 % and the total fertility rate by 30 %. after the millennium the fertility seemed to stabilize and its value began to increase in the last year. the number of births in 2005 was 97 96 which corresponds to 9.7 live births. this 2359 plus (2.5 %) is more than in 200. the total fertility rate increased from 1.28 to 1.32 in 2005.

the increase in fertility was mainly attributed to the changing behavior of childless women aged over 30. while the fertility level increased among women aged over 30, it continued to decrease among women below 25 years. Compared to 1990s, the fertility level in 2005 has decreased by nearly 50 % for women under 20 years, by 66 % for women aged 20-2. Conversely, compared to 1990, the fertility level increased by 5 % for women aged 30-3, and by 66 % for women aged 35-39.

The changing age-specific fertility behaviors have contributed to the ageing process of mothers. During the last fifteen years the mean age at childbirth increased by 2.92 years and reached 28.59 years in 2005. In the same period the mean age at birth of the first child increased by 3.97 years to 26.96.

among the total number of births, the number and proportion of extra-marital births continued to increase. For example, while the total number of births was nearly 23 % lower in 2005 than in 1990, the number of births outside marriage has doubled. Furthermore, 35 % of total births were outside


marriage in 2005 compared to 13.1 % in 1990, and 8.9 % of the extra-marital births were conceived by single women and 1.0 % by divorced women.

in 2005 the proportion of infants born with a low weight (less than 2 500 grams) was 8.2 %, compared to the 8.3% in the previous year.

in the last one and a half decades the number and ratio of induced abortions showed an improving picture. since 1990 the number of abortions has decreased by 2.8 % and in 2005 there were 19.9 induced abortions per 1 000 women aged 15-9 years. the 8 689 induced abortions carried out in 2005 is 3850 less than in the previous year. the total abortion rate measured 0.68 per woman in 2005 is much lower compared to its value of 1.25 in 1990. In the last fifteen years the induced abortions decreased to a higher degree than the number of births. as a result the number of induced abortions per 100 live births decreased from 72 in 1990 to 50 in 2005 thereby indicating a more responsible contraception.

Mortality

For three decades until the early 1990s death rates increased. Since then a definite improvement can be observed in mortality. However in the past few years the number of deaths seemed to be fluctuant mainly due to the flu epidemic of the spring and winter months. In 2005, 135 732 people died, 3240 (2. %) more than in the previous year. this represents 13.5 compared to the 13.1 in 200.

the gender aspect of mortality deserves special attention. in the last ten years the mortality rate for men decreased to a greater extent than for women. The improvement is most significant among middle-aged men.

in 2005 the average life expectancy at birth was 68.56 for men and 76.93 for women. these values practically did not change compared to the previous year. life expectancy at birth for men is now 3. years higher than fifteen years ago, for women it is 3.2 years higher. However its much lower, than the average of industrialized and Eu countries.

There are significant differences in mortality by regions which mainly reflect the diverse social situation in the country: the death rate of adult males is much higher in rural than in urban areas. the geographic differences in mortality are not so pronounced for women.

the infant mortality rate in 2005 was 6.2 per thousand live births, about 0. less than in 200. this is still high on an international scale but shows a definite improvement in the last decades. The relatively high infant mortality can be attributed partly to the relative high proportion of premature birth.

Migration

Hungary is first and foremost a transit and only then a destination country. Officially migration decreased and stabilised after the major international migration movement in the early 1990s.


in 200, 22 16 migrants arrived in hungary, of whom 83.2 % were Europeans, mostly romanians, ukrainians, slovaks, serbia and montenegro. 12.1 % came from asia, mostly China and vietnam. the number of foreign citizens leaving the country was much lower in 200, only 3 66 foreigners left the country.

on 1st January 2005 the number of foreigners staying long-term or permanently in hungary reached 12 153. migrants are not distributed evenly between the different counties and there are much fewer migrants in the north and south of the country. immigration primarily concerns the capital and large towns. after the capital, most foreigners can be found in Csongrd county. the age composition is characterised by a predominance of young adults. For the time being, 0.9% of the new hungarian citizens live in Central hungary, 13.1 % on the southern Great plain and 15.7 % on the northern Great plain.

there is a moderate increase in the number of foreigners applying for hungarian nationality, 5 32 (preliminary data) migrants were naturalised in 200, compared to 5 261 in 2003.


since the middle of the 1970s the number of marriages has shown a declining trend. the reduction was significant especially in the last one and a half decades. Between 1990 and 2005 the number of marriages fell by 33.4 %, and the total first marriage rate (TFMR) for females decreased from 0.77 to 0.7 during the same period. in 2005 there was a slight increase in the number of marriages with 23 registered occurrence, representing an increase of 1.0 % over the previous year. the crude marriage rate was equal to . , and the tFmr changed to 0.7 compared to the previous years 0.5. while the decline in marriages in the past decade can be observed in all age groups, the fall was much greater in the younger age groups. Thus, the mean age at first marriage increased during the period.

last years increase in the number of marriages is mainly due to a changing attitude towards marriage among women aged 30 to 39, while among the never married women aged below 25 a significant decrease can be observed. because of these changes since the second part of 1990s women in the age group 25-29 years have the highest propensity to marriage, while prior to this, for a long time it was among those aged 20 to 2.

Thus the postponement of first marriages continues. Between 1990 and 2005 the mean age for women at first marriage increased by 4.9 years and it reached 26.9 years. According to the present first marriage rate, 53 % of all single women would remain unmarried at the age of 50 years.

the increasing occurrence of informal cohabiting is related to the falling number of marriages. according to the results of the 2005 micro census, 12.2 % of families cohabit.

the number of divorces decreased from the second half of the 1980s to the beginning of the 1990s. In the 1990s the number of divorces didnt change significantly. In 2005, 24 804 marriages ended in divorce, 0.7 % more than in the previous year. the crude divorce rate was 2.5 , and the total divorce rate indicates that 3 % of all marriages would end in divorce. the most affected age-group is 20-29 year olds.



population projections are made regularly and provide information on the population by age and sex up to 2050. in addition, the population is also projected by level of education, as well as by categories of economic activity and inactivity. Usually every five years a regional population projection is added to the projection set.

according to the latest national population projection, the total fertility rate will be around 1.3 in the short term and then increase slowly to 1.6. life expectancy at birth is assumed to increase from 68.6 to 78.1 by 2050 for men and from 76.9 to 85.2 for women. international migration is included into the projection: net migration is assumed to be rather high, +12 000 annually. (these assumptions concern the baseline variant; in the old and the young variants fertility, mortality and net migration are assumed to have lower or higher levels.)

The projections show a further and significant population decline, with a new phase of ageing process and changing size of given age groups as a consequence of fluctuations in the annual number of births in the past. the size of the population is projected to be 8.7 million by 2050 and the proportion of those aged 60 and over is estimated to be 35 %. This set of projections is based on the final data of the 2001 census and yearly population estimation afterwards to 2005.


malTa

Etienne Caruana

Population

based on the 1995 Census of population and housing it is estimated that at the end of 2005 the maltese population was 391 906 (19 603 men, 197 303 women). the total population, including work and resident permit holders and foreigners residing in malta, was 0 36 (200 626 men, 203 720 women). the density of population stands at 1 280 persons per km.sq.

Fertility

the number of live births recorded in 2005 was 3 858 (200: 3 887). the downward trend in the number of births has been constant over the past ten years. the crude birth rate is 9.56; the total fertility rate is 1.37.

Mortality

the number of deaths for 2005 was 3 130, with a crude mortality rate of 7.76, slightly higher than the 7.7 recorded for 200. the infant mortality rate stood at 6.0 which corresponds to 23 deaths same as the previous year.

male life expectancy stands at 77.67, while that for females is 81.39. heart diseases continued to predominate as the main causes of deaths; other risk factors remain cancers and respiratory diseases.

Migration

like most mediterranean countries, malta has had a long history of migration. migration was particularly high in the 1950s and 1960s when, due to lack of jobs and difficult social conditions, thousands left the islands to settle abroad. migration was then considered as a safety valve to ease population pressures. since the mid-70s malta has received back thousands of former emigrants. Currently, the migration dimension in maltese demography is gradually being phased out.

during 2005, it is estimated that 70 persons left the country, 109 returned and 62 persons were naturalized/registered as maltese citizens. there were 62 child-adoptions from abroad.



the number of marriages in 2005 was 2 37 which is a decrease of 1.2 % on 200. the crude rate was 5.88. divorce is not legal in malta.


maltas population is still young by European standards. however the 0-1 age group of the total population declined by 2.5% from last year, whereas the 65 + age group has increased by 1.5 %. like the rest of Europe the population is ageing at a fast rate.

Census of Population and Housing

During 2005 the National Statistics Office conducted a Census on Population and Housing. The preliminary report has been published and is available on the following web page http://www.census2005.gov.mt/reports/Censusprelreport2005.pdf

Demographic outlook National reports on the demographic developments in 2005

NeTherlaNDs

Population

on 1 January 2006 the total population of the netherlands was 16 33 000. in the beginning of 2001 the exact number of 16 000 000 was reached. population growth in 2000 was 123 000. since 2001 population growth has dropped from 118 000 in 2001 to 29 000 in 2005. the decreased growth rate was caused by a decrease in the number of immigrants and an increase in the number of emigrants.

Population with foreign background

on 1 January 2006 the population included 1.6 million people who were born abroad with at least one parent born abroad so-called first generation migrants. In addition, the population included 1.5 million people who were born in the netherlands but have at least one parent who is born abroad so-called second generation migrants. because many migrants have obtained dutch citizenship, distinguishing first and second generation migrants in the above manner gives a better indication of the size of the population with a foreign background than, for example, using a distinction of persons by citizenship.

Further distinctions can be made between western and non-western migrants. the so-called non- western first generation migrants are defined as persons born in Turkey, Africa, Asia (except former dutch East-indies, indonesia and Japan) or latin america. persons born in other countries are considered as western first generation migrants. Dutch East-Indian, Indonesian and Japanese backgrounds are included in the western category because of their relatively high socio-economic status. the western and non-western second generation migrants are determined by the mothers country of birth, or, when the mother was born in the netherlands, by the fathers country of birth.

On 1 January 2006 the number of non-western first generation migrants was 1.0 million persons. two-thirds of them were born in turkey, suriname, morocco or the netherlands antilles and aruba. the number of non-western second generation migrants was 0.7 million persons. three out of four of them have parents born in one of the four above-mentione

Documents

KS-RA-07-001-EN