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Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004
1
Future of RepositoriesWorkshop
Kuopio 2
Steve O’Connor
CEO
CAVAL Collaborative Solutions
Melbourne, Australia
Scenario Planning Workshop CAVAL Collaborative Solutions
2
LAWS OF UNCERTAINTY
• Laws and rules regulate behaviour and therefore reduce uncertainty
• We can act therefore more confidently and surely
• Laws are very structured and codified
• Nothing is more certain!!
Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004
3
Future Thinking
What it is not…Strategic planning…Incremental planning
How not to change …Cling to present views of ‘our’ world… Not being able to conceive of other ways
of performing
Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004
5
The Future is…
• About sustainability
• About relevance
• About appropriateness
• About affordability
• About deliverability
• About minimising risk without being risk adverse
Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004
6
“There are an infinite number of stories about the future; our purpose is to tell those that
matter”
Lawrence Wilkinson
Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004
7
Tunnel Vision
• Light at the end of the tunnel• Vision gets narrower• Open it up ?• Think ‘outside the box’• “..to live is to change and to be perfect is to change often” Cardinal Newman
• There are no sacred cows !
Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004
12
Growth of Digital…..
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Mix of media delivery
Web
Digital
Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004
13
Growth of Digital….
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Mix of Media delivery
Web
Digital
Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004
14
Growth of Digital….
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Mix ofMedia Delivery
Web
Digital
Some thoughts ?What is going to be the operating environment for Repositories in 3 years?
What will the user see?
What are the implications for Repositories?
Published Output HeldPercentage of Australian holdings of English language monographs
published overseas 1975-1995
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
% h
eld
Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004
19
Why… Future of our Libraries
• Enormous growth and use (value?) of consortia
• Pressure on libraries to achieve unit economies• Political impacts to deliver• Libraries on different turfs, similar game !
Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004
20
Shift from Cooperation to Collaboration
• Strong inter-lending traditions
• ‘Big’ shared with ‘Smaller’
• Random collecting achieved
better coverage
• No reliance on central agency
• International possibilities
• More Futures than one !
Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004
21
Acquisitions and withdrawals
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
95 96 97 98 99 20 01
Monos
Withdrawals
Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004
22
1. Professional Publishing and Information Universe
7,982
6,850
6,143
4,275
4,229
4,220
3,555
1,730
1,377
1,119
880
649
293
Reed Elsevier
Thomson
Pearson
VNU
McGraw-Hill
Reuters
Wolters Kluwer
Scholastic
Dow Jones
UBM
Springer
John Wiley
Taylor & Francis
(a)
STM
Legal & Tax
Financial
B2B
Education
Media/Marketing
Other
Note: $/€ FX rate of 1.1322, £/€ FX rate of 0.7090Note: $/€ FX rate of 1.1322, £/€ FX rate of 0.7090(a)(a) Combined KAP/Springer entity.Combined KAP/Springer entity.
Total 2002 Sales (€ in m)Total 2002 Sales (€ in m)
Shared profiling 2
Percent Collect
ed
0%20%40%60%80%
100%
1 2 3 4 5
Subjects
A Three-Library Shared Profile
Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004
27
Infrastructure Relationships - Levels of Interoperability to Information Access
Levels of Interoperability
Low
Hig
h
Local Model:highly
centralised,locally acquiredand managed
resources
Consortium Model:selective access to
distributed resources
NationalModel:
linked accessto widely
distributedresources
Acce
ss C
ap
acity t
o I
nfo
rma
tio
n A
sse
ts
Low High
Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004
34
Service Cycle Model
DiscoveryTools/
Protocols
PaymentSystems
InformationRepositories
IntellectualProperty
Management
AuthenticationAuthorisation
CustomerInterface
Portals/User Profiles
DirectoryServices
ServiceDescriptions
InformationDescription(Metadata)
TransmissionSystems
Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004
45
Aims of process
By involving you and your staffs By offering not one future but a number By empowering you and your colleagues as Users• TO PRODUCE A NEW ‘IFLA REPOSITORY’
FUTURE … THREE YEARS HENCE
Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004
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YOUR INPUT• What information service do you want to
be provided three years hence ?
• What do you want as a User for
your Repository’s resources and services?
Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004
47
No answers, only possibilities
• Three Scenarios from each Group• Creative Name for each Scenario for eg.
‘From Here to Eternity’• One sentence description of each Scenario• Point characteristics for each Scenario inc.
community to serve, focus of delivery
• Have fun!
Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004
48
URL• Digital Delivery 24/7 directly to end-user• Information for free (supported or minimal
charges)• Performance and retention public agreements • Strong local support of regional repositories in
close partnerships• Repositories focusing on existing strengths with
multilingual approaches• Virtual Union catalogue linking repository
catalogues• Develop local support to bridge into URL• International focal points
Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004
49
How to bring scenarios into existence
• What would have to take place ?
• What kind of influence and attitude change would have to occur ?
• What kind of service would exist in 3 years time?
• Time to do your strategic planning…….
Kuopio 2 Futures Workshop May 2004
50
What have we learnt ?
• The Future isn’t what it used to be
• The Future can be what you want it to be
• Techniques for developing Scenarios– Small ( within one of your repositories)– Large ( Global Generic level)