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Kwan Tun LEEKwan Tun LEE
Professor of River and Harbor EngineeringNational Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung, Taiwan
Adjunct Senior Research FellowTaiwan Typhoon and Flood Research InstituteNational Applied Research Laboratories, Taipei, Taiwan 24 November 201524 November 2015
2015 APEC Typhoon Symposium2015 APEC Typhoon SymposiumUniversity of the Philippines, Diliman, Philippines
Runoff estimation for typhoon Runoff estimation for typhoon storms in ungauged watershedsstorms in ungauged watersheds
2
Objectives of this study Objectives of this study
More frequent and severe typhoon storms were noticed in recent years. The impact resulted from climate variability has increased the extent of flood disaster.
To develop a hydrological model for watershed runoff estimation in gauged or ungauged watersheds is an important task for hydrologists.
An integrated window-based hydrological system would be convenient and efficient for hydrologists to perform engineering design and flood forecasting.
3
Conventional rainfall-runoff modeling Conventional rainfall-runoff modeling Linear system model / black-box model /conceptual models
unit hydrograph (UH; Sherman, 1932)instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH)time-area method (Clark, 1945)linear reservoir method (Nash, 1957)tank model (Sugawara, 1974)
Practical application problemsThe models can not be applied to flow ungauged watersheds, and simulation is poor for watersheds with highly nonlinear & time-variant characteristics.
Grid-based hydraulic models kinematic wave model (Singh, 1976)
diffusion wave model (Akan & Yen, 1981)dynamic wave model (Fread, 1978)SHE model (Abbott et al., 1986)
Practical application problemsIt is time consumed for performing a grid-based runoff routing models.
4
All purposes rainfall-runoff modelingAll purposes rainfall-runoff modeling
The model should be derived only based on watershed geomorphologic characteristics. So, it can be applied to any location with/without flow recorded data.
It should be a nonlinear & time-variant model to account for the hydrodynamic phenomena of the watershed.
The model should be performed in an efficient way to perform real-time flood forecasting.
5
Geomorphologic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph Geomorphologic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph
(GIUH)(GIUH)
xxxxxxOA kjiioii
P P PPwP
xxxxw TTTTT
jioi
unit rainfall → N independent raindrops
xo1 x1
x2 x3
xo1 x1
x3 xo2 x2
x3
xo3 x3
xo1→ x1→ x2→ x3
xo2→ x2→ x3
Q
t
xxxxxxOA kjiioii
P P PPwP
watershed geomorphologic IUH (Rodriguez-Iturbe & Valdes, 1979)
where f(t) is the runoff travel time distribution
the probability for a raindrop adopting a specified path
total runoff travel time along the path
u t f t f t f t f t P wx x x xW w
oi i jw
6
GIUH model considering subsurface flowGIUH model considering subsurface flow
effective rainfall
groundwater table
subsurface-flow region
subsurface-flow region
surface-flow region
surface-flow region
effective rainfall
groundwater table saturated zone
unsaturated zonesurface flowsubsurface flow
V-shaped model for
ith-order subwatershed
Rainfall infiltrates as subsurface flow on the upper portions of the watershed.
Surface flow can only occur on the lower portions of the watershed during storms.
(Lee and Chang, 2005)
7
Flow path probability
surface flow
subsurface flow
Runoff travel time
surface flow
subsurface flow
Surface & Subsurface IUH
GIUH model considering subsurface flowGIUH model considering subsurface flow
surface-flow region
2
2
2
1 1
1
1
1
11
3
xxxxw TTTTT
jiisubsub
xxxxw TTTTT
jiios
swxWw
xxxs wPtftftftftus
ss
jiio
)(**)(*)(*)(
subwxWw
xxxsub wPtftftftftusub
ubssub
jiisub
)(**)(*)(*)(
( ) ( ) ( )s subu t u t u t
surface flow paths
xo1 →x1 →x2 →x3
xo1 →x1 →x3
xo2 →x2 →x3
xo3 →x3
subsurface flow paths
xsub1 →x1 →x2 →x3
xsub1 →x1 →x3
xsub2 →x2 →x3
xsub3 →x3
i i o ii
s PCA OA x xP w R P P i jx xP
kx xP
1i i sub ii
sub PCA OA x xP w R P P ji xxP xxk
P
8
Runoff travel time estimationsRunoff travel time estimations
0
i
subii
sub
xsub
L
SKT
swxWw
xxxs wPtftftftftus
ss
jiio
)(**)(*)(*)(
subwxWw
xxxsub wPtftftftftusub
ubssub
jiisub
)(**)(*)(*)(
( ) ( ) ( )s subu t u t u t
Overland-flow travel time
Subsurface-flow travel time
Channel-flow travel time
1
1 2 -1e
i
oi
i
mo
x mo
o LT
S i
n
1/
1 2
2
2i i
i i i
i i
m
sub cmi ex co co
sube ci
cB ni L LT h h
i L B S
Kinematic-wave-based geomorphologic IUH (KW-GIUH)(Lee and Yen, 1997; Lee and Chang, 2005)
(Lee and Yen, 1997)
(Henderson and Wooding, 1964)
(Henderson and Wooding, 1964)
9
Comparison of surface- and subsurface-flow IUHsComparison of surface- and subsurface-flow IUHs The rising limb of the IUH is dominated by surface-flow mechanism, and the
recession limb is dominated by subsurface-flow mechanism.
0 6 1 2 1 8 2 4
T im e (h r)
0
0 .1
0 .2
0 .3
IUH
(hr
-1)
H e n g -C h i
ie = 1 0 m m /h rK 0 = 0 .0 2 5 m /sR P C A = 0 .5n o = 0 .6 , n c = 0 .0 5
su rfa ce -f lo w IU H
su b su rfac e -flo w IU H
to ta l IU H
The duration of the subsurface-flow IUH is longer than that of the
surface flow IUH.
10
Runoff simulation in Heng-Chi watershedRunoff simulation in Heng-Chi watershed
0 1 2 2 4 3 6 4 8 6 0 7 2
T im e (h r)
0
1 0 0
2 0 0
3 0 0
Q (
m3/s
)
3 0
2 0
1 0
0
i e (m
m/h
r)
H en g -C h i Ju ly 1 9 9 6
reco rd ed su b su rface flo w d irec t ru n o ff
Rainstorm in July 1996
11
Time varying & nonlinearity of the KW-GIUHTime varying & nonlinearity of the KW-GIUH
0 1 2 2 4 3 6
T im e (h r)
0 .0
0 .1
0 .2
0 .3
0 .4
IUH
(hr
-1)
S an -H sian o = 2 .0n c= 0 .0 5ie (m m /h r)
11 05 01 0 0
1
1
1 2i
oi
i
mo
mx
o e
o
i
n LT
S
1
1 2
2
2i i
i i i
i i
mo cmi c
x co coo c i
e
e
B n L LT h h
L S B
i
i
Flow travel time estimation
the IUH is a function of the rainfall intensity a set of IUHs instead of only one IUH for a specified watershed
12
Input of KW-GIUH modelInput of KW-GIUH model
Watershed geomorphologic factors Loi ith-order overland-flow length Soi ith-order overland-flow slope Lci ith-order channel-flow length Sc ith-order channel-flow slope Ai ith-order subwatershed contributing area B channel width at the watershed outlet no roughness coefficient for overland flow nc roughness coefficient for channel flow Ko hydraulic conductivity
Watershed hydrological characteristics rainfall intensity
ei
surface-flow region
2
2
2
1 11
1
1
11
3
13
Digital elevation model (DEM)Digital elevation model (DEM)
30m
Flow direction is determined according to the elevation in the eight adjacent cells
• Flow direction determination
• Depressionless
• Flow accumulation value calculation
• Channel network extraction
• Subwatershed delineation
• Geomorphologic factors determination
In 2014, NASA released globally 30m resolution topographic data generated from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM).
14
Geomorphologic factors calculationGeomorphologic factors calculation
A H
L S Ai
Sci
Soi
Lci
watershed areamean elevationmean slopemainstream lengthmainstream slopestream orderith-order subwatershed areaith-order channel slopeith-order overland slopeith-order channel slopewetness index
S
digital elevation dataset
watershed boundary and stream network
watershed geomorphologic factors
)tan
ln(
a
15
Overland roughness determination – SPOT imageOverland roughness determination – SPOT image
Remote sensing images can be used to classify the land cover distribution of a watershed for overland roughness coefficients determination.
SPOT satelliteNear-infraredRedGreen
WaterBuilding and roadBared SoilGrassForest
16
Merits of the KW-GIUH model
0 5 10 15T im e ( hr )
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
IUH
( h
r-1 )
10010
1
H eng-C hi
i (m m /hr)e
n =0.3n =0.03
o
c
0 5 10 15Tim e ( hr )
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
IUH
( h
r
)-1 0 .1
0.3
0.5
n =0.03c
i =10 m m /hre
n o
H eng-C hi
1 10 100R ecurrence interval T E (years)
0
500
1000
1500
Q (
m3/s
)
Heng-Chi(1975-1992)
Type Ith is study
Influence of rainfall intensity variation can be considered. Influence of environmental changes can be simulated. Flow frequency analysis in ungauged areas can be performed. The model can be performed in an efficient way.
17
Flow frequency analysis in ungauged watershedsFlow frequency analysis in ungauged watersheds
Lee, K. T. (1998). “Generating design hydrographs by DEM assisted geomorphic runoff simulation: a case study,” J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 34(2), 375-384.
18
Flow analysis in landslide-dammed-lake watershedFlow analysis in landslide-dammed-lake watershed
• Watershed geomorphologic factors and characteristic curve of the landslide-dammed lake are calculated using DEM• Land cover condition is obtained from remote sensing image analysis• Flow analyses are performed by using KW-GIUH model and TOPMODEL
y3
y1
y2 y1
y2
y3
1 2 3
Lee, K. T., Lin, Y.-T. (2006). “Flow analysis of dammed-up-lake watersheds: a case
study,” Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 42(6), 1615-1628.
19
Runoff analysis in USARunoff analysis in USA
Salt watershed (A=876 km2), Kaskaskia watershed (A=2692 km2), Illinois, US
Yen, B. C. and Lee, K. T. (1997). “Unit hydrograph derivation for ungauged watersheds by stream order laws,” J. Hydrologic Engrg., ASCE, 2(1), 1-9.
20
Sadovy watershed, Komarovka River Basin, Russia (Area=395 km2)
0 2 4 4 8 7 2 9 6 1 2 0 1 4 4 1 6 8
T im e (h r )
0
1 0 0
2 0 0
3 0 0
Q (
m3 /
s)
2 0
1 0
0
i e (
mm
)
1 6 A u g . 1 9 6 8
R eco rd edK W -G IU H
0 2 4 4 8 7 2 9 6 1 2 0 1 4 4
T im e (h r )
0
4 0
8 0
1 2 0
1 6 0
Q (
m3 /
s)
86420
i e (
mm
)
6 A u g . 1 9 7 1
R ec o rd e dK W -G IU H
Lee, K. T., Chen, N.-C., Gartsman, B. I. (2009). Impact of stream network structure on the transition break of peak flows, Journal of Hydrology, 367, 283-292.
Runoff analysis in RussiaRunoff analysis in Russia
21
Faria catchment, Palestine (Area=334 km2)
Shadeed et al. (2007). “GIS-based KW-GIUH hydrological model of semiarid catchments: the case of Faria catchment, Palestine. Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering.
Runoff analysis in PalestineRunoff analysis in Palestine
22
Gagas watershed, Uttarakhand, India (Area=506 km2)
Kumar, A. and Kumar, D. (2008). Predicting Direct Runoff from Hilly Watershed Using Geomorphology and Stream-Order-Law Ratios: Case Study, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, ASCE, 13(7), 570-576.
Runoff analysis in IndiaRunoff analysis in India
23
Yasu River basin, Japan (Area=387 km2)
Chiang, S., Tachikawa, Y., and Takara, K. (2007). Hydrological model performance comparison through uncertainty recognition and quantification, Hydrological Processes, 21(9), 1179-1195.
input uncertainty = 1 mm/hr
Runoff analysis in JapanRunoff analysis in Japan
24
Yi-Jin River watershed, Sichuan, China (Area=1700 km2)
0 6 1 2 1 8 2 4 3 0 3 6 4 2 4 8 5 4 6 0 6 6 7 2 7 8 8 4 9 0 9 6
T im e ( h r )
0
3 0 0
6 0 0
9 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 5 0 0
Q (
m3 /s
)
2 01 61 2
840
i e (
mm
/hr)
A u g . 1 9 8 6
R e c o rd ed
S im u la te d
0 6 1 2 1 8 2 4 3 0 3 6 4 2 4 8 5 4 6 0 6 6 7 2 7 8 8 4 9 0 9 6
T im e ( h r )
0
3 0 0
6 0 0
9 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 5 0 0
Q (
m3 /s
)
1 086420
i e (
mm
/hr)
S e p . 1 9 8 6
R e c o rd ed
S im u la te d
3.0
0.06o
c
n
n
3.0
0.06o
c
n
n
Cao, S.-Y., Lee, K. T., Ho, J.-Y., Liu, X. N., Huang, E., Yang K.-J. (2010). “Analysis of runoff in ungauged mountain watersheds in Sichuan, China using kinematic-wave- based GIUH model,” Journal of Mountain Science, 7, 157-166.
Runoff analysis in Mainland ChinaRunoff analysis in Mainland China
25
Runoff analysis in IranRunoff analysis in Iran
Estimating Runoff and Sediment Yield Using KW-GIUH and MUSLE Models: Runoff and Sediment yield modeling Saleh ArekhiAssistant professor, Agriculture College, ILam University, Ilam, Iran,
Amazon.com Price:$67.00
26
Geomorphologic & hydrological information systemGeomorphologic & hydrological information system
Design discharge estimatingGeomorphologic factors calculatingLand cover analysisFlow frequency analysisAverage rainfall calculatingRainfall frequency analysisDesign hyetograph developmentRainfall-runoff simulating
27
Integrated channel-flow-routing systemIntegrated channel-flow-routing system
Subwatershed boundary delineatingSubwatershed rainfall calculatingSubwatershed inflow calculatingHEC-RAS channel-flow routingMuskingum-Cunge channel-flow routing
28
Geo. & Hydro. Analy. Channel Routing Sys. Inundation Simu.
Windows-based integrated analysis systemWindows-based integrated analysis system
flow frequency analysis
Geomorphologic factors
land cover analysis
Regional rainfall
Rainfall frequency analysis
Designhyetograph
rainfall-runoff simulation
designdischarge
Non-inertia wave model
FLO-2DHEC-RAS
Muskingum-Cunge
Subwatershed boundary delineating
Subwatershed rainfall calculating
Subwatershed inflow calculating
Subwatershed rainfall calculating
Subwatershed inflow calculating
29
ConclusionsConclusions
KW-GIUH model can be applied to gauged and ungauged watersheds for runoff simulation only based on watershed geomorphologic information.
Instead of using grid-based routing models, the IUH concept operating provides an efficient way for rainfall-runoff simulation, and the runoff nonlinearity can also be considered in the KW-GIUH model.
The integrated windows-based platform can provide both geomorphologic and hydrological information for hydrologists to perform engineering design work and real-time flood forecasting at any desired point in the watershed.
Thank YouThank You
Prof. Kwan Tun LEEGeographic Information System Research CenterNational Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung, TaiwanE-mail: [email protected]
31
Kinematic-wave-based runoff travel time
C
A
B
A B
C
hcoi
m
meo
oox
iS
LnT
i
i
oi
1
121
Travel time for ith-order overland-flow
Travel time for ith-order channel-flow
TB
i Lh
i n L L
Shx
i
e ocom e c o c
c i
m
coii
i
i i
i
i
2
21
B
h
i n N A AP
N B Sco
e c i i OA
i i c
m
i
i
i
1 2
1
Lee, K. T. and Yen, B. C. (1997). Geomorphology and kinematic-wave based hydrograph derivation. J. Hydraulic Engrg., ASCE, 123(1), 73-80.
32
Kinematic-wave-based geomorphologic IUH
( ) exp( ) exp( ) exp( ) ( )o ii
i
x x xo i
w Ww
t t t
T T Tu t a b b P w
If the runoff travel time distribution can be assumed to follow an exponential distribution, then the IUH can be expressed analytically as
1
1 2
i
i
i
mii OA
co
ci i
e c N A APh
N
i
B S
n
1
1 2
2
2i i
i i
i i
i
mo cmi
co coo c i
c
e
xeB L L
h hi n
iT
L S B
The flow travel time in different order of overland areas and channels can be estimated by
Kinematic-wave-based geomorphologic IUH model(KW-GIUH; Lee and Yen, 1997)
33
Runoff simulation in Heng-Chi watershed
Storm event in Oct. 2000 ( no = 0.8, nc= 0.05 )
0 1 2 2 4 3 6 4 8 6 0 7 2
Tim e (h r)
0
1 0 0
2 0 0
3 0 0
4 0 0
Q (
m3/s
)
3 0
2 0
1 0
0
i e (m
m/h
r)
H en g -C h i O c to b e r 2 0 0 0
reco rd ed
K W -G IU H
34
KW-GIUH for soil erosion simulations
Lee, K. T., Yang, C.-C. (2010). Estimation of sediment yield during storms based on soil and watershed geomorphology characteristics. Journal of Hydrology, 382, 145–153.
• sediment travel time in overland areas and channels were derived only based on soil and watershed geomorphologic information, • A geomorphologic instantaneous unit sedimentgraph (GIUS) was obtained for soil erosion simulation during storms.
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
T im e (h r)
0
5 0
1 0 0
1 5 0
2 0 0
2 5 0
Qs (
kg/s
)
3 0
2 0
1 0
0
i e (m
m/h
r)
S T A 0 1 1 5 F e b . 2 0 0 1
R eco rd edS im u la ted
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
T im e (h r)
0
1 0 0
2 0 0
3 0 0
4 0 0
Qs (
kg/s
)
6 0
4 0
2 0
0
i e (m
m/h
r)
S T A 0 1 2 8 N o v . 2 0 0 1
R ec o rd edS im u la te d
Goodwin Creek watershed, Mississippi, USA
35
Overland roughness coefficientOverland roughness coefficient (SCS, 1986) (SCS, 1986)
36
Flow attenuation in ungauged reservoir watershedFlow attenuation in ungauged reservoir watershed
Lee, K. T., Chang, C.-H., Yang, M.-S., and Yu, W.-S. (2001). “Reservoir attenuation of floods from ungauged basins,” Hydrological Sciences Journal, 46(3), 349-362.
37
KW-GIUH & HEC-RAS for overbank-flow simulationKW-GIUH & HEC-RAS for overbank-flow simulation
Lee, K. T., Ho, Y.-H., Chyan, Y.-J. (2006). “Bridge blockage and overbank flow simulations using HEC-RAS in the Keelung River during the 2001 Nari typhoon.” J. Hydraulic Engineering, ASCE, 132(3), 319-323.
• Using KW-GIUH model to estimate runoff hydrographs from subwatersheds and lateral flow areas• Using HEC-RAS model to simulate flood wave transport in open channel