Kyoto University International Relations Seminar Class Kazushi Minami, Atsuji Kiohiro, Yuka Nishiwaki, He Xuanyue,

and associate professor Takeshi Sakade!

!!

"#

$%&'(!

)#U.S.-Japan

Relations!

*#Japan-China

Relations!

+#U.S.-China

Relations!

,!

#"!

Conclusion; New Partnership

-!

.!

!! Triangle Relations

/####0Armitage-Nye (2000)

//##0Bergsten (2008)

/####0Ozawa (2009)!

Kiyohiro Atsuji

1!

2!

Broad Cooperations

(Allicance)!

Economy!

Military!

Futenma!

Terrorism!

Nuclear Issue!

Stability of East Asia!

U.S.!

Japan!

Defense!

Politics!

Domestic Pressure!

Okinawa Residents!

LDP and SDP!

3!

Military Transformation!

!! Broad Cooperation

//0East Asian Stability

//0Nuclear Proliferation

//0International Terrorism

//0Pandemic Prevention

!! Potential Conflicts

//0Prolonged Futenma Problem

//04An Equal Relationship”

//0A Crisis of U.S.-Japan Alliance?

5!

Newly elected Nago city mayor Susumu Inamine!

U.S. Ambassador to Japan John V. Roos!Likely

Deterioration!

At the same time, Japan can’t do

without help of U.S. at least RIGHT NOW.!

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:JohnRoos.jpg!

Yuka Nishiwaki

6!

!7!

Negative! Positive!

Economic Cooperation!

Political Interaction!

Historical Controversy!

Civil Distrust!

Territorial Issues!

Secretary General of DPJ Ichiro Ozawa

and Chinese President Hu Jintao!

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-12/10/content_12626887.htm!

A Seed of Cooperation/Conflict!

Stabilizer/Destabilizer!

!! Regional Leadership! !! U.S.-Japan Alliance!

!!!

Chinese Rule! Western

Rule!

Asia!

U.S.!

!! Deepening Relationship

//0Political Interactions

//0Civilian Interactions

!! Potential Conflicts

//0Territorial Disputes

//0Historical/Cultural Frictions

!! Future Threats

//0Asian Regional Leadership

//0Rising China & U.S.-Japan Alliance!

!,!

Generally speaking, Japan-China relations is rapidly developing. (but maybe not substantial)

However, the future contingency can’t be overestimated.!

He Xuanyue

!-!

•!RMB Manipulation!

•!US$ Assets!

•!New Key Currency!

•!Transparency!

•!Taiwan!

•!Sea Lane!

•!Trade Deficit!

•!Trade War!

•!Business Culture!

•!Tibet Issue!

•!North Korea!

•!Transnational Problems!

Politics! Economy!

Finance / Currency!

Military!

!.!

G2 or

New Cold War!

Tibet Issue!

Taiwan Issue!

Google Issue!

!1!

Rapid Deterioration!

G2 Mirage?!

Engagement 8#Containment ! Chinese Regime!

!! U.S. policy toward China! !! China’s policy toward U.S.

!2!

Appeasement! G2!

Selective Partnership!

Containment!

hard!soft!

Liberal!

realistic!

Peaceful Rise!

Chinese Regime!

Western Regime!

An Inevitable Conflict?!

Kazushi Minami

!3!

!! Current Momentum

/0Weakened U.S.-Japan Relations

/0Strengthened Japan-China Relations

/0Weakened U.S.-China Relations

!5!

!6!

)#G2 doesn’t work.!

*#The Alliance has to be redefined.!

,7!

!!)#U.S.-China Relations

//0Dilemma of Foreign & Domestic politics

//0Western regime uncomfortable for China

//0Chinese Regime threatening for U.S.

!!*#U.S.-Japan Relations

//0Alliance in the 21st Century

//0New Ruling Party (DPJ)

//0Influential Stakeholder

Cooperation of U.S. and China to form NEW RULES!

Japan as an INDEPENDENT

BALANCER!

U.S.-Japan-China de facto G3!

Thank You for Listening !

,!!

!! Keywords

U.S.-Japan Relations Futenma/TOYOTA Recalls/Nuclearization/

North Korea/the U.S.-Japan Alliance/FTA/

Refueling in Indian Ocean/Nuke Deal

Japan-China Relations Concessions on History/Civil Distrust/

Territorial Disputes/Regional Leadership/

Yasukuni Shrine

U.S.-China Relations Tibet/Taiwan/Google/RMB Manipulation/

Trade Imbalance/SED/Copenhagen/AfPak/

Democracy/Peaceful Rise/G2/Hegemony

!! Key Areas

0Politics 0Military 0Economy and Trade 0Currency 0Environment

0Nuclear Proliferation 0Human Right

,,!

!! Key Actors

0North Korea 0South Korea 0ASEAN 0Taiwan 0Russia

0European Nations 0India