LA INDUSTRIA DE CELULOSA: CERTEZA E …...LA INDUSTRIA DE CELULOSA: CERTEZA E INCERTIDUMBRE Richard Lewis - Noviembre 2017 XIV SIMPOSIO DE LA INDUSTRIA DE LA CELULOSA Y EL PAPEL 1

0

LA INDUSTRIA DE CELULOSA: CERTEZA E INCERTIDUMBRE

Richard Lewis - Noviembre 2017

XIV SIMPOSIO DE LA INDUSTRIA DE LA

CELULOSA Y EL PAPEL

11

MARKET PULP ‒ The market pulp industry

Global – industrial operations in over 25 different countries

Fragmented – biggest producer has less than 10% of the market

Capital intensive – investment of over US$ 3 for every US$1 sales

Economies of scale – Optimal size is now 1 million tonnes/y NBSKP

[Äänekoski] and almost 2 million tonnes/y BEKP [Três Lagoas]

Wood supply – crucial to competitiveness (makes up around 50% of

average operating costs fob mill)

22

MARKET PULP ‒ The Market

International – over 80% of market pulp is exported from country of

manufacture – 51% across oceans

Diverse – A wide variety of qualities with different properties and

applications

Competitive – market driven, nobody has any control over price!

33

INTEGRATED & MARKET PULP demand

El grado de integración varía según tipo de papel, tipo de celulosa

y también según mercado geográfico….

SOURCE: Hawkins Wright

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

P&W Wfree

P&W Wcont

Tissue

Fluff

Spec

Pack

TOTAL

(million tonnes)

Integrated

Market2016

Global Integrated & market wood pulp consumption

(million tonnes of fibres)

By Paper segment TOTAL Integrated Market mkt./Total

P&W Wfree 43,7 28,0 15,7 36%

P&W Wcont 20,4 17,6 2,8 14%

Tissue 27,4 7,1 20,3 74%

Fluff 5,4 0,0 5,4 100%

Spec 10,1 0,2 9,9 98%

Pack 65,2 57,5 7,7 12%

172,2 110,3 61,9 36%

By wood pulp grade TOTAL Integrated Market mkt./Total

Mechanical/CTMP/BCTMP 29,1 25,1 4,0 14%

Chemical 143,1 85,2 57,9 40%

*Excludes 6.3 million tonnes mostly integrated non-wood paper grade pulps

Dissolving Wood Pulp 6,1 1,6 4,5 74%

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

High Yield

Chemical

Dis.W. Pulp

(million tonnes)

Integrated

Market

El principal uso final es la

producción de papel….

44

INTEGRATED & MARKET PULP demand

SOURCE: RISI

El grado de integración a la producción de

papel varía según mercado geográfico….

total market % Integra

Total Paper Grade 53.253 7.262 86%

Bl. Softwood Kraft 9.358 3.724 60%

Bl. Hardwood Kraft 12.686 3.094 76%

Sulfite 415 7 98%

Unbl. Kraft 20.149 349 98%

Semichemical 3.395 0 100%

Mechanical 7.250 88 99%

N. AmericaNordic

China

E.Europe

W. Europe

Japan

O. F. East

M. East

L. America

Af/Oce

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000

Gra

do

de

Inte

grac

ión

Tamaño del Mercado (miles de toneladas)

total market % Integra

Total Paper Grade 29.888 20.766 31%

Bl. Softwood Kraft 8.275 8.079 2%

Bl. Hardwood Kraft 14.364 9.577 33%

Sulfite 26 26

Unbl. Kraft 1.229 779 37%

Semichemical 0 0

Mechanical 5.994 2.305 62%

55

EXPANDED GLOBAL FIBRE MARKET 2016

Old News/Magazines

CITYRecovered Paper

SOURCE: Team analysis, Hawkins Wright

Premium Pulp Subs.

Old Corrug. Cont.

Mixed (unsorted)

FORESTFresh Wood Fibres

High Yield Wood pulp

Chemical Wood pulp

FARMFresh non-wood Fibres

Non-wood pulp

INTEGRATED (25.1 million tonnes) MARKET (4.0 mill. Tonnes)

INTEGRATED (85.2 million tonnes)

MARKET Paper grade(52.5 million tonnes)

Flu

ff (

5.4

mill

ion

to

nn

es)

(26.7 million tonnes - net)




Dissolving wood pulp 6.1 million tonnes

Paper grade (6.3 million tonnes)-DP (0.7 million tonnes)

350 million tonnes of fibres

Fibre: 161.5 million tonnesGross: 217,6 million tonnes

Fibre: 172.2 million tonnes

66

Market pulp demand ‒ by region 2016

America25%

Europa44%

China6%

Japón9%

Otros Asia14%

Africa+Oceania2%

America18%

Europa30%

China34%

Japón3%

Otros Asia13%

Africa+Oceania2%

2000 – 41,5 millones de toneladas

2016 – 62,2 millones de toneladas

→ Europa deja de ser el mercado regional más importante, siendo desplazado por China.


77

REGIONES CON EXCEDENTE/DEFICIT market pulp


-10.000 -8.000 -6.000 -4.000 -2.000 - 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000

BSKP

BHKP

FLUFF

UKP

DP

-10.000 -8.000 -6.000 -4.000 -2.000 - 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000

BSKP

BHKP

FLUFF

UKP

DP

-10.000 -8.000 -6.000 -4.000 -2.000 - 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000

BSKP

BHKP

FLUFF

UKP

DP

-10.000 -8.000 -6.000 -4.000 -2.000 - 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000 18.000 20.000 22.000

BSKP

BHKP

FLUFF

UKP

DP

-10.000 -8.000 -6.000 -4.000 -2.000 - 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000

BSKP

BHKP

FLUFF

UKP

DP

-10.000 -8.000 -6.000 -4.000 -2.000 - 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000

BSKP

BHKP

FLUFF

UKP

DP

• DP• UKP• Fluff• BHKP• BSKP

88

1,7%

3,5%

2,3%

2,3%

1,4%

0,3%

1,7%

1,9%

‒0,3%

‒0,4%

-2.000 -1.500 -1.000 -500 0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000 5.500 6.000

WORLD

China

Otros Asia

Europa E.

L. América

N. America

Africa

Oceania

Japón

Europa W.

(miles de toneladas)

DEMANDA POR REGIÓN ‒ proyección @ 2021

Crecimiento de la demanda Global: 5,4 millones de toneladas (1,7% p.a.)

→ China seguirá liderando el crecimiento: +4 millones de toneladas.


99

∆ DEMANDA POR TIPO ‒ proyección @ 2021

→ La celulosa en base a Eucalipto seguirá liderando el crecimiento: +3,1 millones de toneladas.

-1.000

-500

-

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

BK

P-n

ort

he

rn

BK

P-o

ther

BK

P-s

ou

the

rn

Bir

ch

BEK

P

Asi

an H

W

NM

HW

SMH

W

Sulp

hit

e

UK

P

Me

chan

ical

/CTM

P

(mile

s d

e t

on

ela

das

)


1010

∆ OFERTA DE CELULOSA ‒ por región 2000-2016

→ Latinoamérica es el principal domicilio de la capacidad instalada, habiendo desplazado a N. América.

0.34

1.08

19.18

1.16

4.84

3.95

1.87

8.49

3.66

23.59

68.13

-2.000 0 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000 18.000 20.000 22.000 24.000 26.000 28.000

Africa

Oceania

N America

Japan

W Europe

Other Asia

China

Nordic

E Europe

L America

WORLD


Millones de toneladas

Rest12% E Europe

5%Other Asia

6%

W Europe7%

Nordic12%

N America28%

L America35%


Participación en la Oferta total por región 2016 (%) →

1111

TRADE: Celulosa market pulp Fibra Corta

→ Latinoamérica es LA región excedentaria

-10.000 -8.000 -6.000 -4.000 -2.000 - 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000 18.000 20.000

CHINA

W EUROPE

N. AMERICA

JAPAN

OTH ASIA

E EUROPE

SCANDINAVIA

OCE/AF

LATIN AMERICA

(thousand tonnes)


1212

TRADE: Celulosa market pulp Fibra Larga

→ Norte América, Escandinavia y en menor medida LatinAmérica son las regiones excedentarias

-10.000 -8.000 -6.000 -4.000 -2.000 - 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000

CHINA

W EUROPE

OTH ASIA

JAPAN

OCE/AF

E EUROPE

LATIN AMERICA

SCANDINAVIA

N. AMERICA

(thousand tonnes)


1313

∆ OFERTA POR REGIÓN ‒ proyección @ 2021

→ Latinoamérica incrementará aún más su liderazgo

0.08

0.09

1.26

‒0.27

1.93

0.80

2.38

6.26

-1.000 -500 0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000 5.500 6.000 6.500 7.000

Africa

Oceania

N America

Japan

W Europe

Other Asia

China

Nordic

E Europe

L America

WORLD



1414

Fragmented supply in both segments results in strong competition

SOURCE: Team analysis, Hawkins Wright

2,1

Arauco

APP

1,7

3,0

1,6

1,3

Eldorado

UPM 1,7

CMPC2

Suzano

APRIL 3,1

3,4

5,7Fibria

1,3

others

Cenibra

Stora Enso

9,3

BHKP market pulp by major player

Million tonnes/year

BSKP market pulp by major player1

Million tonnes/year

9,0

1,1Resolute Forest Products

Ilim

Others

Mercer

Domtar 1,6

1,5

1,8

1,4

APP/Paper Excellence/IGI

Arauco 1,8

1,5

Sodra

International Paper

Metsa Group

Georgia Pacific

3,2

1,9

2,4

No player has more than 17% of the

production for each grade; only

Arauco & APP are top ten players in

both grades

16,6% 11,9%

10,0% 8,9%

9,1% 7,0%

8,7% 6,5%

6,0% 6,5%

5,1% 6,0%

5,0% 5,6%

4,6% 5,4%

3,9% 5,3%

3,7% 4,1%

27,2% 33%

x% Percentage of total capacity

1 Includes fluff pulp

2 Total Capacity is 3.3MM ton

2017

1515

New BHKP capacity additions at the low end of the supply curve


HARDWOOD COST CURVE

(US$/Ton c.i.f. China Port)

SOFTWOOD COST CURVE

(US$/Ton c.i.f. China Port)

500

600

300

2000 35000300005000 10000

400

2000015000 25000

(M metric tonnes)

600

500

400

300002000015000 250001000050000200

300

35000

(M metric tonnes)

20212016

1616SOURCE: Hawkins Wright

CONFIRMED

Status Startup target

Capacity change

000 tonnes/yearLocation

2017-19

Quang Ngai, VietnamVitracimex

n/a 2000Tres Lagoas, BrazilEldorado

2018 100Äänekoski, FinlandMetsä Fibre

4,120Total

n/a 1450Punta Pereira, UruguayMdP

n/a 750Sao Paulo, BrazilLwarcel

n/a 600Vologda, RussiaSveza

n/a 1500Mozambique

4,300Total

2020 250Three mills, RussiaIlim

2017? 400

Navia, PontevedraENCE

n/a 1300HorconesArauco

Company

Uruguay n/aUPM na

2017/19 700Äänekoski, FinlandMetsä Fibre

70

POCOS proyectos nuevos confirmados 2018 →Total

change

BLEACHED HARDWOOD KRAFT PULP 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017-21

Eucalyptus

Iberia ENCE, Altri +35 +30 +20 - - +85

Suzano Sao Paulo, Maranhao, Mucuri -20 -40 +320 - - +260

Klabin Puma +440 +20 - - - +460

CMPC Guaiba Guaiba +55 - - - - +55

Fibria Tres Lagoas Horizonte 2 +380 +1.375 +195 - - +1.950

Eldorado Tres Lagoas II - - - - - -

Chile AraucoValdivia - - -60 -60 - -120

Other BHKP

China Asia Symbol (Rizhao) -170 -100 - - - -270

Indonesia APP OKI, Kerinci, Toba +450 +700 +100 +100 - +1.350

East Europe Ilim -65 +100 - - - +35

West Europe Nordic birch & Paper Excellence (France) +30 +130 - - - +160

North America Sappi, Resolute & others -5 -50 -50 - - -105

Total BHKP +1.125 +2.165 +525 +40 - +3.855

Major changes by mill

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017-21

NBSK

Nordic Varo, Aanekoski, Ostrand, Skutskar +410 +890 +395 +50 - +1.745

Other Svetlogorsk, Ilim - +450 +225 +25 - +700

Other softwood/SBSK/fluff

USA Ashdown, Riegelwood, Jesup & others +300 -45 -10 -30 -30 +185

Latin America Arauco-Valdivia, Klabin Puma (2017) +175 - -150 -200 -50 -225

Other China (Asia Symbol, Hunan Tiger) +135 -85 -75 - - -25

Total BSKP +1.020 +1.210 +385 -155 -80 +2.380

BLEACHED SOFTWOOD KRAFT PULP

1717

Main use Sub uses and furnish

5%

12%

22%

0

3%

1%

3%

5%

25%

2%4%

P&W Woodfree

paper

60%

25%

Cartonboard

4%

0%

46%

14%

5%

Fresh Fibre

Containerboard16%

30%Other

(inc. specialties)

79%

39%

94%Recicled

containerboard

20%

18% 50%

38%P&W Mechanical

paper

4%

Dissolving pulp

Fluff pulp 100%

Tissue 12% 62%

Non-woodMineralsHardwoodSoftwood Recycled

Market pulp consumed million tonnes

Paper and

Paper

board

Other

16

20

3

6

1

1

10

5

5

Total market

pulp demand1

~67MM ton

SOURCES: Brian McClay mill database, 2015 (formerly NLK mill database) Hawkins Wright

1 Includes High Yield (mechanical)

1%

0%

1%0%

33% 10%57%

FIBRE FURNISH: Detalle composición fibrosa

1818SOURCE: Team analysis, Hawkins Wright

1 China´s restrictions to RP may affect the virgin fiber demand

DEMAND Fibre

Current size

and growth

▪ Current market pulp “paper grade” market size is 62M tonnes,

out of which:

● ~50% HARDWOOD (BEKP 34%) ● UKP ~3%

● ~41% SOFTWOOD ● H.Yield ~6%

By 2030, the market is expected to grow ~ 25%, up to 77 M ton1

Technological

change

▪ P&W papers: in the past the main consuming segment is

losing in developed countries, but still growing in developing.

Geography Growth

▪ Demand from developed countries will slightly contract to

2030 ~ (‒7% / ‒2 million tonnes), while demand from RoW will

increase sharply ~+48% / +17 million tonnes. CHINA +11.6M

Uses

Importance

and growth

▪ Containerboard: Largest segment, growing the fastest, but with

very small market pulp use

▪ Tissue, Specialties & Folding Boxboard, now large consumers

Transversal

trends Other

▪ Innovations & Non traditional cellulose fibres uses: Micro and

Nano Cellulose, Dissolving pulp (-exit barriers), Fluff.

▪ BEKP substituting BSKP

▪ BHKP cost curve is flatter that that of BSKP and is becoming

flatter as new capacity is added at the lowest cost quartile.

▪ There is a price point from when both BHKP & BSKP fresh

fibres become substitutes for recycled Paper.

Costs and

performance StructureSUPPLY

3

2

1

4

5

6

Demand/Supply: market pulp paper grade trends

19

African countries

INDIA

Honduras IndonesiaPeru

PanamaBahamas

VietnamEl Salvador

GuatemalaRussiaS. Africa Barbados/Brazil

UruguayEcuador

ArgentinaMexico

ThailandTurkey

CHILECHINA Greece

C.RicaLatvia Slovak

Hungary

Malaysia

Lithuania

CroatiaPotugal

Spain

FranceEstonia

Israel

U.K.

PolandAustraliaCzech Rep

SwedenCanada

ItalyTaiwan

Denmark

N Zealand/S Korea Netherlands

Finland/Japan USASlovenia

Austria

Germany

Belgium

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Pap

er&

Pap

erb

oar

d a

pp

co

nsu

mti

on

p/c

(k/

hab

.)

GNI p/c at PPP (thousand US$/person)

Source: RISI – Annual Review of Global Pulp&Paper Statistics 2015GNI p/c at PPP: WORLD BANK

Paper & Paperboard Consumption v. GNI After a GNI p/c threshold, Paper & Paper board p/c consumption remains flat/even decreases

China

1995

(1.8-21.7)

China

2015

(14.3-77)

India (6-10.5)

20

Paper & Paperboard Consumption forecast

Source: Own elaboration based on RISI 15-year Forecast (2016-2031) and RISI Database

-

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.0001

99

2

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

20

31

(th

ou

san

d t

on

ne

s)

WORLD: P&PB app. consumption by grade

Newsprint Printing & Writing Containerboard Tissue Other Paper and Board

forecast

1992-2007 2008-2016 2017-2031

Paper and Board 3,1% 0,5% 1,8%Newsprint 1,2% -5,4% -3,8%

Printing & Writing 3,3% -1,8% -1,0%

Containerboard 4,3% 2,4% 2,9%

Tissue 3,9% 3,3% 3,5%

Other Paper and Board 2,1% 1,6% 2,4%

average annual growth rates (%)

historicalWORLD↑ Papeles para cajas

↑ Cartulinas y especialidades

↑ Papeles Tissue

21

Paper & Paperboard Consumption forecast


(2016)

Newsprint

Printing&Writing

ContainerboardTissue Boxboard,

SpecialtiesOther

-5,0%

-4,0%

-3,0%

-2,0%

-1,0%

0,0%

1,0%

2,0%

3,0%

4,0%

0 2 4 6 8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

10

0

fore

cast

ed

rat

e o

f gr

ow

th t

o 2

03

1 (

% p

.a.)

Acc % of 2016 global consumption →

Global P&PB Consumption Growth Forecast by Grade to 2031

22

En contraste: Perspectivas del Consumo de P&PBoard por tipo en Latinoamérica…


-

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

20

31

(th

ou

san

d t

on

ne

s)

L. AMERICA: P&PB app. consumption by grade

Newsprint Printing & Writing Containerboard Tissue Other Paper and Board

↑ All grades up !!

↑ Papeles para cajas

↓ Exc. Newsprint !

23

Paper & Paperboard Production forecast


-

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

1995 2005 2015 2030

tho

usa

nd

me

tric

to

nn

es

Paper&Paperboard Production to 2030 by region

afr/oce

latam

e europe

o f east

m east

china

jap

nordic

w europe

n. america

LA NUEVA PRODUCCIÓN DE PAPEL Y CARTÓN SE LOCALIZARÁ EN REGIONES DEFICITARIAS DE CELULOSA

DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

24Source: Hawkins Wright Outlook for Market Pulp August 2017

Market pulp demand forecast by grade

-

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

e

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

(th

ou

san

d t

on

ne

s)

WORLD: market pulp demand by grade

Total BKP-SW BEKP Other BKP-HW Sulphite UKP Mechanical/CTMP

forecast HW

1992-2007 2008-2016 2017-2021

Market pulp Demand 3,6% 1,9% 1,7%

Total BKP-SW 3,2% 1,4% 1,1%

BEKP 7,2% 6,7% 2,8%

Other BKP-HW 3,0% -1,2% 2,1%

Sulphite -2,4% -19,5% -14,4%

UKP 2,5% -2,3% 0,6%

Mechanical/CTMP 3,9% 1,2% -0,6%

average annual growth rates (%)

historical ↑ Fibra Larga

↑ Eucalipto

→ Otros Fibra Corta

2525

2427 30

67

7

54

4315

1617

1854

5

5

56

7

8

21

5

4

4

44

62

2

Fluff

2030

UKP

266

78

2

2016

BAKP

+1.7% p.a.

BEKP

Other BHKP

NBSK

Other BSKP

BCTMP

3

25

71

20

3

SOURCE: Hawkins Wright; team analysis

MM=million tonnesBHKP BSKPFluff High YieldUKP

MARKET SHARE2016

MARKET SHARE2030F

3% 4%

7% 5%

8% 10%

32% 29%

50% 52%

BHKP demand grow ~10MM ton, BSKP ~5 MM ton (50% of which is fluff growth)

2

2626

China P&P1industry growing rapidly, limited domestic wood supply will

cause an increase on recovered paper and imported pulp…


China fiber demand for P&P1

Million tonnes

1 Excluding non-fiber paper content (coaters and fillers), before fiber losses in processing

Constraints

1

Avg.

growth

‘10-’20 (%p.a.)

Domestic

recovered

paper

Non-wood

Imported

recovered

paper

Imported

wood pulp

Domestic

wood pulp

~9

~7

~10

Forecast

▪ None - readily available at competitive cost

▪ Has been cost-competitive raw material,

but global supply tightening as key export

regions reach recovery limits

▪ Seasonal, with quality and pollution issues

▪ Recycling rates slowly increasing but

quality issues remain, increasing the

minimum level of fresh wood fibre needed,

(reinforcement) varying by grade.

▪ Recovery approaching limits in some

grades: e.g. corrugated boxes, where the

best quality and a large share of production

is exported as packaging materials for

household appliances, electronics…..

1%

-15%

6%

5%

10%

▪ Limited supply of domestic wood fibre e.g.

from pulpwood plantations. Most pulp mills

rely on imported wood chips

7

2128

3237

8

7

32

2

17

25

2927

26

3

7

910

11

7

11

17

22

28

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

42

70

8693

103

Imported wood pulp @ Sept. 2017 = 17.6 million tonnes [23.5??]

2727

…but restrictions on imports of RCP1, may further increase the demand

for virgin fiber

35

10

30

5

20

25

15

0

14120604 1008 11 151303 16090705

150

300

250

200

100

50

020171411082005

Chinese RCP1 imports; ,million tonnes

Chinese OCC2 prices; US$/tonne

Green Fence enacted

2

▪ Pollution and environmental

concerns prompted the Chinese

government to intensify regulation

on imported waste

– Feb. 2013: ‘Green Fence’

policy; increased inspection on

imported raw materials, incl.

mixed papers

– Feb. 2017: ‘National Sword’

campaign stepped up

inspections of RCP cargoes

at ports – max of 1.5%

prohibitive content (vs. 3-6%

usually) further proposed 0.3%

– July 2017: ban on 24

categories of trash imports, incl.

unsorted RCP, by year end– August 2017 → Environmental

inspections/closures Old China.

▪ Chinese recycled paper and board

producers likely to face lower RCP

availability and higher costs 1 Recovered paper; 2 Old Corrugated Container

SOURCE: RISI; McKinsey analysis

28.5 million

tonnes

2828

China will reach 42% of the total market pulp demand by 2030

SOURCE: Hawkings Wright; team analysis

million tonnes

3

MARKET SHARE IN 2016

FORECAST MARKET SHARE IN 2030

CAGR2016-2030

Asia / Africa

North America

Latin America

East Europe

Japan

China

Europe

12% 10% -0.3%

21 2428

33

10

11

115

16

16

15

15

8

8

8

7

9

4

6

3

4

2

2

2025 2030

78

72

~3

2~3

~3

2016

66

2

62

2020

26% 19% -0.8%

4% 3% 0.3%

4% 3% 3.3%

6% 5% 3.3%

15% 7% 1.6%

34% 3.2%

1.7%Total

42%

2929

MAIN TAKE-AWAYS…① LA INDUSTRIA DE CELULOSA market pulp HA DEBIDO

ENFRENTAR EL IMPACTO ADVERSO DEL CAMBIO TECNOLÓGICO

(medios electrónicos): En los países desarrollados, la demanda por

celulosa ha disminuido como resultado de una menor demanda de

papeles P&W y para Publicaciones.

② OTROS SEGMENTOS DE LAS INDUSTRIAS CONSUMIDORAS DE

market pulp en los países desarrollados han contribuido a

amortiguar este efecto: Cartulinas para envases, papeles Tissue

premium (100% market pulp), una amplia gama de

especialidades…

③ EN LOS PAÍSES EN DESARROLLO, EL IMPACTO DEL CAMBIO

TECNOLÓGICO HA SIDO ALGO MENOR.

④ PAÍSES EN DESARROLLO QUE HAN SIDO EXITOSOS AL SACAR

DE LA EXTREMA POBREZA un significativo porcentaje de su

población, les han dado acceso a un mayor (y de mejor calidad)

consumo de papeles y cartones.

3030

MAIN TAKE-AWAYS…

⑤ EN GENERAL, ESTOS PAÍSES EN DESARROLLO NO

DISPONEN DE RECURSOS FORESTALES PARA SUSTENTAR

SU PROPIA INDUSTRIA DE CELULOSA: Deben salir al mercado

como nuevos consumidores de celulosa MARKET PULP.

⑥ ESTÁNDARES AMBIENTALES MÁS EXIGENTES SOBRE LA

INDUSTRIA PAPELERA DE PAÍSES EN DESARROLLO incentiva

un mayor consumo de celulosa MARKET PULP: se reduce la

oferta local de celulosas non-wood y se aplican restricciones

(mayores costos) al procesamiento de papel recuperado.

⑦ DE-INTEGRACIÓN: (i) La competencia global lleva a las

compañías papeleras a instalar sus Plantas de celulosa cerca

de los bosques y sus máquinas papeleras cerca de los

mercados. (ii) Compañías integradas [N. América] en algún

momento deberán hacer frente al término de la vida útil de sus

Plantas de celulosa. La solución al dilema: reconstruir o de-

integrarse debería favorecer un mayor consumo de market

pulp.

3131

MAIN TAKE-AWAYS…

⑧ LA INDUSTRIA LOCALIZADA EN PAISES DESARROLLADOS

ENFRENTA CRECIENTES PRESIONES CONSERVACIONISTAS

QUE LIMITARÁN O HARÁN MÁS HONEROSA LA PRINCIPAL

MATERIA PRIMA DE ESTA INDUSTRIA.

⑨ QUEDAN MUY POCAS LOCALIZACIONES COMPETITIVAS PARA

EL DESARROLLO DE PLANTACIONES. LAS EXIGENCIAS DE

CERTIFICACION DE MANEJOS FORESTALES Y COC

SUSTENTABLES SE HACEN UNIVERSALES.

⑩ DESARROLLO DE MICRO FIBRILAS PERMITE REDUCIR EL

CONSUMO DE FIBRA LARGA DE REFUERZO. NUEVAS

APLICACIONES DE LAS FIBRAS DE CELULOSA: Dissolving

pulp, orientado a SUSTITUIR FIBRAS TEXTILES; LAS MUCHAS

APLICACIONES POTENCIALES DE LAS NANOFIBRAS, ETC..

Documents

LA INDUSTRIA DE CELULOSA: CERTEZA E …...LA INDUSTRIA DE CELULOSA: CERTEZA E INCERTIDUMBRE Richard Lewis - Noviembre 2017 XIV SIMPOSIO DE LA INDUSTRIA DE LA CELULOSA Y EL PAPEL 1