Assessing Progressin Africa towardthe Millennium

Development GoalsMDG Report 2010

F O N D S A F R I C A I N D E D É V E L O P P E M E N

T

A F R I C A N D E V E L OP M E N T F U N D

BA N

Q U E

A FR IC A INE D E D É V E L O P P E M E NT

African Development Bank GroupAfrican UnionEconomic Commissionfor Africa

United Nations Development Programme

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2010 iii

Table of Contents

List of Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ivList of Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vNote to the Reader . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viiForeword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ixAcknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiList of Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii

SECTION I: INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

SECTION II: TRACKING PROGRESS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21Goal 4: Reduce child mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28Goal 5: Improve maternal health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Goal 6: Combat HIV, AIDS, malaria, and other major diseases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

SECTION III: THE ROLE OF GOAL-SPECIFIC AND INSTITUTIONAL INNOVATIONS IN ACCELERATING PROGRESS TOWARD THE MDGs IN AFRICA . . . . . . . 74

3 .1 Goal-specific innovations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 743 .2 Broad-based institutional innovations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

SECTION IV: CONCLUSIONS AND AN AGENDA FOR ACTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84

References and Web Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90Annex 1: Official list of MDG indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95Annex 2: African optimism about the future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100Annex 3: Global Peace Index (GPI) rankings and scores of African countries (2007–2010) . . . . . 101Annex 4: Global Hunger Index (GHI) for African countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102Annex 5: Composition of subregional country groupings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2010iv

List ofTables

Table 1: Percentage change in employment-to-population ratio 1991–2007 for selected African countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Table 2: Enrollment in private primary schools (% of total enrollment and aggregate primary completion rates), 1999 and 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Table 3: Contraceptive prevalence rates in Africa, various years (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38Table 4: Adolescent birth rates in Africa, various years (per 1,000 girls aged 15–19 years) . . . 40Table 5: Antenatal care coverage in Africa, various years (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42Table 6: Unmet need for family planning in Africa, various years (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43Table 7: Percentage of under-fives sleeping under insecticide-treated nets, 2000–2008 . . . . 47Table 8: Net Official Development Assistance, 2008 and 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58Table 9: ODA to Africa by sector as a percentage of total bilateral commitments,

2004–2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61Table 10: Tariffs imposed by developed countries on African exports of agricultural

products, textiles and clothing, 2000, 2007, and 2008 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64Table 11: OECD Aid for Trade commitments to Africa by sector at constant prices

(2008 USD millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66Table 12: Classification of African countries by HIPC status (January 30, 2010) . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2010 v

List ofFigures

Figure 1a: Growth rate of GDP per person employed, for selected African countries, 1992 and 2008 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Figure 1b: Change in growth rate of GDP per person employed, 1992–2008 (%) . . . . . . . . . . 7Figure 2a: Growth rate of GDP per person employed over time by African subregion,

1992–2008 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Figure 2b: Change in growth rate of GDP per person employed by African subregion, 1992–2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Figure 3: Employment-to-population ratio by African subregion, 1991 and 2007 (%) . . . . . . . 10Figure 4: Prevalence of underweight under-five year-olds for selected African countries,

1990–99 and 2000–09 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Figure 5: Percentage of population undernourished according to WFP/FAO subregional

groupings (excluding North Africa), 1990–2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Figure 6: Expenditure on primary education (as % of total educational expenditure) . . . . . . . 15Figure 7a: Progress in net enrollment ratio in primary education for selected African countries, 1991, 2005, and 2007 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Figure 7b: Gap to net enrollment target in primary education for selected

African countries, 2007 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Figure 8: Primary completion rates for selected African countries with data for 1991, 2005,

and 2007 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Figure 9a: Literacy rate of 15–24 year olds, for selected African countries, both sexes, 2007 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20Figure 9b: Literacy rate of 15–24 year olds for selected African countries,

disaggregated by gender, 2007 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Figure 10: Gender parity index in primary education for selected African countries, 1991

and 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22Figure 11: Gender parity index in primary education by African subregion, 1991–2007 . . . . . . 23Figure 12: Gender parity index in secondary education for selected African countries, 1991 and 2007 . . 23Figure 13: Gender parity index in tertiary education, for selected African countries, 1991 and 2007 . . 24Figure 14: Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector, for selected

African countries (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Figure 15: Percentage of seats held by women in national parliaments, 1990 and 2009 . . . . . 26Figure 16: Percentage of women in national parliaments by African subregion, 1990–2009 . . . 27Figure 17: Under-five mortality rates for 1990, 2008, and 2015 (target) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2010vi

Figure 18: Under-five mortality rates in Africa for 1990, 2007, and 2015 (estimated rate and target) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

Figure 19: Causes of under-five mortality in Africa in 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Figure 20: Under-five mortality rate per 1,000 live births by African subregion, 1990–2007 . . . 31Figure 21: Under-five mortality rate per 1,000 live births by African subregion, excluding

the most populous countries, 1990–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31Figure 22: Progress (% change) in Infant Mortality Rate, 1990–2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32Figure 23: Percentage of one-year-old children immunized against measles in 2008 and

percentage change between 2000 and 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34Figure 24: Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) per 100,000 live births by African subregion,

1980–2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36Figure 25: Percentage of births attended by skilled health personnel for selected African

countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Figure 26: Tuberculosis prevalence rate per 100,000 population by African subregion,

1990–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49Figure 27: Tuberculosis prevalence rate per 100,000 population by African subregion

excluding the most populous countries, 1990–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49Figure 28: Tuberculosis mortality rate per 100,000 population by African subregion,

1990–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50Figure 29: Tuberculosis detection rate under DOTS, 1995 and 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51Figure 30a: Percentage of population using an improved drinking water source, 1990–2008 . . 55Figure 30b: Percentage of population using improved sanitation, 1990–2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Figure 31: Net ODA as a percentage of GNI, 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60Figure 32: ODA received in Small Island Developing States as a proportion of their GNIs,

2000–2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62Figure 33: Percentage of imports from Africa, LDCs, and developing market economies

admitted free of duty by developed countries, 1996–2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63Figure 34: Total debt service as a percentage of exports of goods and services, Africa

excluding North Africa, 1990–2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68Figure 35: Cellular subscribers per 100 population, 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71Figure 36: Cellular subscribers per 100 population by African subregion, 2000–2008 . . . . . . . 72Figure 37: Internet users per 100 population, 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73