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Labor Market Risks of a Magnitude 6.9 Earthquake in Alameda County
Richard Holden, U.S. DOL/BLSDonna Bahls, California EDDCharles Real, Cal. Geological Survey
Research Question:
Can existing detailed labor market information be mapped against earthquake shaking intensities to produce estimates of economic exposure?
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)
Developed through a cooperative program between the states and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Data include detailed industry level establishment counts, annual employment, and annual and weekly wages for every county, Metropolitan Statistical Area, and state
QCEWApproximately 96% of business establishments in California are geocoded to physical location Data are confidential in CaliforniaThe data can be aggregated by geographic areas to provide information on business establishments, industry, employment, and wages
QCEW
California
Over 1.2 million Business Establishments
Over 15 million Employees
Almost $200 billion in Quarterly Wages
Earlier uses of QCEW data in disaster areas
Southern California Fires 2003 and 2007
Businesses and Employment within burn areas
Hurricane Katrina – Louisiana and Mississippi
Businesses and Employment within flooded and wind damaged areas
Southern California Wildfires 2003 and 2007
Hurricane Katrina 2005
A Collaboration between
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
California Geological Survey
California Employment Development Department
Labor Market Risks of a Magnitude 6.9 Earthquake in Alameda County
Shaking Intensity Zones in the San Francisco Bay Area
Employers in Shaking Intensity Zones in the San Francisco Bay Area
25,776 Employers400,521 Employees$5.1 B in Quarterly Wages
Zone 8+: Severe Shaking, Moderate/Heavy Damage
Zone 7: Very Strong Shaking, Moderate Damage
11,567 Employers208,709 Employees$3.1 B in Quarterly Wages
Approximately 90 percent of the businesses, employees, and payrolls are in most intense shaking zones on the map.
Hayward Event Losses Compared to Hurricane Katrina in 2004
Early map-estimated losses from Katrina
Employers: 31,000Employees: 500,000Payroll: $4.7 B quarterly wages
Less than estimated exposure in MMI 7 and 8+ zones
Industry Exposures in Alameda County (MMI 8+)
Health care and social assistanceManufacturingTrade (wholesale and retail)Educational servicesOthers
Hayward 6.9 Earthquake
Potential for major economic dislocation to businesses, employees and economyPossible wide-ranging multiplier effects across industriesEffects felt in Bay Area and California
www.bls.gov (search for Hayward Earthquake)